If Lepisto and Korpii skated clean programmes at World's

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by poths, Nov 13, 2010.

  1. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,260
    I can't help wonder if Christina Gao makes the World team, which at this point seems like it could totally happen, if she might be able to sneak up onto the World's podium Meissner style ala 06, bring the 3-3s and take advantage of the open field. She is easily capable of getting the highest TES and if she goes clean her PCS won't be huge but should be sufficient enough to keep her on the medal stand.
     
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,366
    Your scenario of Miki Ando winning Worlds and Gao medalling would require Kim to not show up at all (in addition to Rochette not showing up, Mao continuing to suck and probably missing the Japanese team, and everyone else continuing to skate their worst as most people have this season so far). After all just imagine how many falls over both programs Yu Na Kim would have to have to lose to Christina Gao, 5 or 6. :lol:
     
  3. miki88

    miki88 New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2009
    Messages:
    806
    Maybe Brian will be the one to get the last laugh. :lol: (Sorry just had to say that. :hat1:)
     
  4. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,260
    I had in mind a podium with Miki, Yuna, and Christina. Akiko, Kanako, Mao all so far seem hit or miss with their jumps this season, and one of them won't even be there. Imagine if Christina finishes ahead of Yuna at Worlds, I bet that would make Orser feel pretty good about himself! And I mean honestly, there's a chance Gao could be the JGPF champion and US champion come Worlds and if she is (or even manages to medal at both events), if she skates well her PCS should get a big boost. I mean, Mirai smashed her former personal best by like 22 points at the Olympics, these things can happen.
     
  5. Squibble

    Squibble New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2005
    Messages:
    1,520
    I believe I read in another thread that Kim is in training and may compete at Worlds. If so, and if she skates anywhere near her best (neither of which is a given at this point), I think she has a lock on gold. Otherwise, I think Lepistö with a SP with a 3T+3T, 3R, 2A and an LP with a 3Z, two 3R's (one in combo), a 3S (in combo), and a 3T+3T, plus super-high PCS, is right up there with the best of them. She won a bronze medal at Worlds without landing all of her planned content.

    As for Korpi, skating her programs clean and as planned apparently means landing a 3T+3T in both the SP and LP. The 3T has been her weakest jump (other than the 3A, which she's reportedly practiced but never attempted in competition), and she didn't even attempt it last season. If she can skate clean land all of her jumps, then she's potentially got a killer SP and an LP with seven triples (including two 3R's), and her PCS will go up. On the other hand, without the 3T's, she'd have a two-triple SP and a five-triple LP and would probably end up in the lower half of the Top Ten. That said, I'd love to see her master the 3T this season and skate clean at Worlds. :)
     
  6. miki88

    miki88 New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2009
    Messages:
    806
    It's not like Yuna to come unprepared, especially since she's building up for this one event. But I do think you have a point. If the field remains this weak come March, it is likely that Gao will play a factor if she gets to go this year, because frankly she has competing and doing well in a far deeper field than the senior ladies this year. If Mirai doesn't step up by Nationals, I can see Gao taking it.
     
  7. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2009
    Messages:
    2,047
    The Olympics were very inflated, so there's not much of a comparison that can be made. Besides that, I don't think Gao should be on the team this year. She certainly has demonstrated that could do well on the World team, but I don't think it would be a good idea to send her with her lack of experience. She does seem prone to nerves in competition, and I don't think it's smart to send a girl who's never had experience on the international senior level. Same goes for Zawadzki. But I would definitely count them in for next year.
     
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,366
    Yu Na would have to skate pretty awful to finish behind either Miki or Christina. That is my point. Even though both are World Champions the judges view Yu Na at a whole other level than Miki Ando. Unless Yu Na announces she is not going to Worlds someone like Ando certainly does not have a great shot or even a good shot at winning as you keep repeating. And if Yu Na skates well enough to medal (even if not great for her) the judges will for sure give her the gold unless someone like Mao or even Rochette shows up and skates lights out.

    And frankly I would be very surprised if Gao was on the World podium at all this year inspite of he open field. Murakami is clearly above Gao at this point even with Gao improving, and even she isnt likely to medal at Worlds. In fact I still dont see her even making the U.S team but I do concede she could make it, but I wouldnt bet on it at this point.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2010
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,260
    I didn't mean in that order, if Yuna is back to her old form she should easily win, but we don't know what she'll do there and it will be her first competition in a year so it's hard to tell what she will do.

    Murakami is not clearly above Gao, Christina put up a 58+ score in the SP at JGP Graz which is higher than both of Kanako's SP scores this season, and she scored 108 and 109 for her FS that had mistakes and one less element than a senior FS, Kanako beat that by like 2 points at SA but take out the spiral and she's below that. Christina has also been more consistent with her jumps thus far, their spins are comparable, and Gao probably has jumps that are more prone to +GOE. They are very comparable and if anyone is ahead at this point I'd say it's Gao.

    Further, if Christina is clean at nationals and hits 3f-3t in the SP and FS I don't see her not being on the World team.
     
  10. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,260
    If the Olympics were so inflated, how do you explain Mirai's SP score at Worlds?
     
  11. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,366
    Juniors scores cant be compared to Seniors. I/K this year are already evidence of that. Murakami would definitely beat Gao on PCS and I dont think Gao would outjump her enough to compensate.

    If Gao does the hypothetical jumps you said all clean of course she would have a reasonable chance to make it but the judges would probably still put Flatt, Nagasu, and Czisny on the team over her at this point all things equal. We will see though.

    It is true nobody knows what Yu Na would do in her first event of the year. I see them giving Miki a 2nd World title as a last resort kind of option for them though, they are probably already ailing they had to give her the first one. She was never a big judges favorite compared to the other very top (Asada, Kim, Rochette, Kostner) skaters. The judges will be praying any of Asada, Kim, or Rochette show up at Worlds and skates even reasonably well, and if none of that occurs and Ando skates lights out then they might grudgingly give her the gold.
     
  12. burntBREAD

    burntBREAD Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2010
    Messages:
    432
    ITA. For some reason, I feel like judges on the junior circuit tend to hand out more GOEs than on the senior-level. For example, while certainly it is very impressive that Adelina Sotnikova can do a 3Lz-3T and a 3Lz-3Lo, does it REALLY deserve such high GOE? I feel like the judges are more impressed when a young competitor does it rather than someone they expect more from.
     
  13. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2008
    Messages:
    3,279
    Murakami has life and energy to her performances. I find Gao completely sleep inducing and void of personality. :yawn: JMO.
     
  14. Seerek

    Seerek Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2002
    Messages:
    3,463
    I agree with the positive GOE happy judges. I've also noticed that the technical callers at the junior competitions are also a little more lenient when it comes to calling under-rotations. Would the same 3-3 combinations be ratified at the Senior Grand Prix event?
     
  15. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

    Joined:
    May 9, 2002
    Messages:
    11,278
    Not a fan of Murakami's long program. Plus she has more technical issues to deal with than Gao - the lutz, flip and loop all have issues and are inconsistent.

    But back to topic, if Lepisto and Korpi can skate a clean competition, they are totally medalling, or in case Kim, Asada and Nagasu aren't back in form, winning!
     
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,260
    You're right, but junior scores are usually LOWER than senior scores, especially regarding PCS. I mean, the Shibutani's have just made the jump to seniors and are winning medals already and getting high scores, Kanako just scored her PB FS score with a FS with a number of errors.

    As for nationals, Alissa is really inconsistent, it seems like because of SC people are convinced she's back and better than ever but I'm not so sure, and further a couple mistakes from her will get her down to like, 3 or 4 triples in the FS, which shouldn't hold her up over Christina if Christina is clean. Also GOE, Christina has big, nice fully rotated jumps and Alissa's jumps are fine but not great, the same goes for Rachael. Mirai has nice jumps when she rotates them, but her injury may hold her back, and now Rachael is injured too, so I'm not convinced they will be the 2 to go at this point.
     
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,366
    The Shibutanis are skating miles better than last season. That is why they are able to medal in Senior Grand Prix events when they couldnt even medal at Junior Worlds last year. So of course their scores will go up, it in no way implies easier judging. :lol: Murakami has also improved since last season.
     
  18. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2005
    Messages:
    7,920
    After Skate America, I would add Joshi Helgesson to the list. I can easily see her make Euros podium this year and win the next. She has a very sincere (non-snooty) and uplifting ice presence, not to mention technique, musicality, etc. Ksenia Makarova is also along these lines but Joshi is even more charismatic.
     
  19. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,260
    Let's be honest though Ksenia is a much better skater than Joshi at this point. Joshi has a lot of potential for the future but she's not soup yet, sometimes she still seems awkward and juniorish. She also has UR issues, though they seemed improved at SA. I think she can definitely be top 10, probably top 5 at Euros but medaling will probably be a stretch this season.
     
  20. wonderlen

    wonderlen New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2007
    Messages:
    600
    At this point Knesia seem to be the best euro lady in term of what can offer in TES. She has complete set of triples, 3+3, minor edge problem and she can polish her program better and land her jumps a little more smoother, it will be hard to beat. As much as Calrolina PCS is above the rest of the euro ladies, program with Loop, Salcow and Toe will only get you so far now that you can only do two 2A and both salcow and 2A value is decrease.
     
  21. MikiAndoFan#1

    MikiAndoFan#1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2009
    Messages:
    14,083
    She hasn't been attempting Flips and Lutzes because she is injured.
     
  22. alchemy void

    alchemy void Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Messages:
    3,637
    Yes, because sincerity and uplifting qualities are such an important part of PCS. :rolleyes: She has nice potential but has UR issues, basic skating issues, and a serious lack of power/speed to deal with before she makes the podium even at Euros. Her sister, Viktoria, is much more likely to place top 5 than she is.

    But back to the original point, if Korpii and especially Lepisto could ever skate back-to-back clean performances, they could win a world title this year. Lepisto's Olympic freeskate is my favorite ladies skating performance of the last 5 years (of course excluding Gizmo and my beloved OES).

    But its between those two, Kostner, and the Russian girls. I like Makarova but her programs are poorly constructed this year. :wall: I really feel like Leonova has much better programs, in terms of choreography and transitions. If she can skate well at Cup of Russia this week and beat Makarova, I think Leonova can be a contender for the Euros ladies, too. Alright, flame away on that opinion, because I know it's unpopular! :lol:
     
  23. vodkashot

    vodkashot New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    197
    If Lepisto and Korpii skate back-to-back clean programmes at Worlds?


    Hell would freeze over, pigs will fly, Carolina Kostner will also skate clean, etc., etc.
     
  24. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2008
    Messages:
    3,279
    Pigs can fly, silly! ;):p
     
  25. kukkura

    kukkura Member

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2007
    Messages:
    111
    Why do folks find it so unpleasant to speculate what Korpi could achieve by skating clean? Stranger things have happened, like Sandhu at the 2004 GP final. We have a pretty good idea how much Lepistö is able to score, but is it really just a complete waste of energy to estimate how much Korpi's new programs are worth when performed flawlessly?
     
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,260
    I'd say clean Korpi would be maybe 5 points below a clean Lepisto for the FS. So for a SP I think she could score 60ish if clean, and for the FS maybe 115-120?
     
  27. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2009
    Messages:
    7,666
    I think if Kiira were to nail all her elements in the SP and the LP, she could score at least 170.
     
  28. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,260
    I'd say maybe 175-180, according to my above post
     
  29. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,366
    It is hard to say since the scores right now seem lower. I am pretty sure Lepisto would go past 180 no problem in this scenario though, even with the lower scores this year. And if she does that the only ones who could beat her are Kim obviously, a fully recovered Asada, Rochette if she returns, or maybe (but I am not sure at all) a totally clean Nagasu.
     
  30. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2009
    Messages:
    7,666
    I did not include GOEs in my estimate, which is why I said "at least". I was also conservative on the PCS, using Nebelhorn as my guide.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2010