If B/A had won Worlds 2009...

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by skateboy, Jun 14, 2010.

  1. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    Just wondering... if B/A had won Worlds in 2009 (which, if Tanith had not fallen in the CD, they very well might have won), how would it have affected 2010?

    Hard to imagine the World champs being dethroned at Nats--but who knows. How would B/A's status as reigning World Champs have affected the judging at Olys? Would they have been automatically put on the podium, and if so, who would have been left out?
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    If B/A had won Worlds in 2009 they would have remained U.S #1 and won silver at the 2010 Olympics behind Virtue & Moir, repeating their performance from 2006. An ailing and continually declining Domnina & Shabalin would have been pushed off in favor of an improving Davis & White.
  3. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    It may have given them confidence that would've even affected their SS. They probably would've won US nats, too.
  4. MOIJTO

    MOIJTO Banned Member

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    Even if they had won Worlds 09 they wouldn't have been on the podium at Oly's. Despite injuries and adjustments to programs for Ben's sake, their programs really deteriorated over a 4 year period. The year off hurt them and the coaching change hurt them.
  5. UMBS Go Blue

    UMBS Go Blue KWEEN 2016! YES WE KWAN!

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    IIRC Tanith didn't fall at 2009 Worlds; it was 2008 Worlds where that happened.
  6. Tak

    Tak Well-Known Member

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    Just what I was going to say. If they had won Worlds in 2008, I doubt they would have left Sphilband. How that would have impacted the next 2 years is anyone's guess.
  7. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Judging by Delschoes' marks, though, for their FD which was not their best of the season, it would appear that the judges would've favored them anyway over a mistake-free B/A at '08 Worlds. But without mistakes, I think B/A probably would've ended up in 2d and that may have set them up better for '09 Worlds.

    yes, that may have forced them to re-examine any coaching switch but my understanding was that they felt 'crowded' in Michigan. So, maybe they would've moved anyway?
  8. Debbie S

    Debbie S Well-Known Member

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    I'm guessing that if Tanith hadn't fallen in the CD, B/A would have won Worlds in 2008. Remember, DelSchoes didn't win the FD - I don't think they were the judges' favorites. I think B/A were the favorites going in (since DomShabs had withdrawn) but Tanith's fall not only took them out of favor in the judges' eyes, it also affected the rest of their performances - they looked off the whole comp.

    I suspect if they won Worlds, they would have retired rather than continue on for the next 2 years in 'crowded' Canton. And I don't think they would have left Igor after winning a World title.

    What year off? B/A missed Nats in '09 but I wouldn't call that a year off. They competed on the GP that season and competed at Worlds, and placed ahead of D/W. I do think they were on a downward slope, compared to D/W and V/M, but I also think their skating was better at Nats and the Olys than they got credit for. I think they should have won the CD at Nats this year, and they should have beaten DomShabs at the Olys.
  9. MOIJTO

    MOIJTO Banned Member

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    Owning my disagree, they wouldn't have won in 08 either and you miss a nationals you miss a year give or take a GP.

    B/A were worthy American champions, but they were passed by better skaters since 06, leaving Igor hurt them big time!
  10. kosjenka

    kosjenka Well-Known Member

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    I don't think B&A could have won Worlds in 2008 or 2009.

    In 2008, DelShols managed to pull 3 parts dances - which was what was needed for them to finally win a title. Plus there was a fresh new team that was on its high way - Tessa and Scott.

    If they managed to win in 2009 - I think they still would have been beaten by the D&W at national level and that at the international level they might have won bronze at Olympics instead of D&S.

    Still - 2 USA couples on the podium would be a little too controversial for our stoned judges :D hehehe
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  11. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    I'm really amazed by how all of you would easily throw away D/W's whole improvement and award B/A a national title just because they would have been world champions... I mean, do you all say that, cause you believe B/A deserved that title more or because of the dirty FS politics to give titles for previous titles and not for what was actually presented on the ice? Do you really think B/A had better dances in the Olympic season than D/W? just curious.

    I think if they had won the 2009 worlds (which IMHO D/W deserved more, but that was already discussed elsewhere, so whatever), they could have ended up third in Vancouver. There's no way they would have beaten D/W with the dances both teams had that season. Of course, assuming it would have been judged based on what was happening on the ice, not on the titles everyone had earned before.
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  12. Debbie S

    Debbie S Well-Known Member

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    Are you sure that Nats and Olys were judged based on what happened on the ice, with D/W coming out ahead? ;)

    I agree that D/W surpassed B/A in tech ability the past 2 seasons and I think D/W should have medaled at '09 Worlds (over V/M). But when you consider the judging system....both teams did Level 4 elements (except footwork , where both got Level 3....D/W may have gotten a Level 4 on one of them at Nats and Olys). It came down to GOEs and PCS, and like skating judging has always been, it's subjective. And unfortunately in ice dance, politiks play a role in scoring.

    I'm not saying D/W didn't deserve what they got....but I also think B/A were underscored/placed.
  13. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I dont think B&A would have won the 2009 Worlds either without their fall in the CD. They were only 4th in the OD and 3rd in the FD. The scores in those werent going to change that much just because they fell in the CD. They might have edged V&M for 2nd there, but even then I am not sure. If you add 3-4 points onto their score they are still a couple points short of 2nd.

    Yeah they were the favorites for the title after DomShabs withdrew but that doesnt mean things play out that way. Ice dance judges are unpredictable at the best of times. DelSchoes are not usually the judges favorites but they sure seemed to be that week.

    Of course whether B/A finished 2nd or 3rd might have determined whether they left Michigan too, as if they finished 2nd over V&M they might have still felt like the #1 team there? Who knows really.
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2010
  14. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I dont want to get into a drawn out debate which team was truly better last year as that seems to be a touchy subject here. I dont think the gap between them was anywhere near what the marks was, I will just put it that way.

    The way ice dancing works if B/A were the reigning World Champions they almost certainly would have been kept as the #1 American. What country demotes a reigning World Champion to #2 in their own country in an Olympic year behind a team that had never yet medaled at Worlds. It just wouldnt happen. Especialy when the two teams are close in ability.

    As it was with B/A's failure again to win the elusive World title, and D/W improving and scoring so well on the GP circuit (and higher than B/A last fall) the USFSA probably felt it was time to go in a new direction. I cant imagine the change being made in the U.S last year if B/A were the reigning World Champions though.
  15. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    But then again, that only means FS is full of political games and titles are given based on who has better previous achievements, which is somehow depressing, don't you think? I mean, I get the point, it's possible it would have happened that way, but well, perhaps I'm just that naive little believer who foolishly thinks it should be judged by what's happening on the ice... :p
  16. HSGP21

    HSGP21 New Member

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    Watching the way Tanith and Ben handled themselves this season, and their attitude towards competition/each other/life in general- I have to argue that the move to PA was a good thing. Tanith in particular seemed happier and healthier than ever after the initial bumps in the road after the coaching shake up, and that is going to sustain her much longer than a world title would have.

    Whomever said Igor/Marina/Tanith/Ben did not know how to handle the success of their careers early on was exactly right, IMO. I think loosing T/B gave Igor the motivation to be a smarter coach (esp with CD's) Davis and White and Virtue and Moir owe Tanith and Ben a thank you for sure... and I am so pleased that the press (namely Christine Brennen and her article) noticed that around the Olympics. I am not sure what would have happened to any of those teams if Tanith and Ben had stayed in Canton
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Ice dancing judging has improved since the advent of COP, but it will probably always be political to a certain degree. In the end though I dont think the USFSA would demote a reigning World Champion to their #2 skater in any of the 4 disciplines going into an Olympics though, especialy in favor of someone who hasnt won a World medal of any color yet, no matter how good they are. I know Abbott beat Lysacek at Nationals but he only did since he so far outskated Evan there the judges had no choice. Evan was still their #1 politcally by far.
  18. Tak

    Tak Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. We will never know with any certainty, but going into Worlds in 08 B/A were the favorites to win IIRC. Del/S had problems with The PIano all season - they changed quite a lot of it by Worlds.

    Falling in the CD really cost B/A because [1] it took them out of contention for a medal in the judges' minds [meaning their marks would be lower] and [2] that fall obviously affected their skating in the OD especially - their usual confidence was not there.

    I think if they hadnt fallen, their marks in the OD and FD would have been higher - high enough for them to win. Del/S 2nd, V/M 3rd. Del/S got the benefit of the fall because they then became the forerunners and their marks were higher than they would have been otherwise. I know Casken will disagree :p but IMO Del/S won that year by default. B/A were out of it with the fall, Dom/S werent there, V/M were "too young" - Del/S had been around for a long time, many thought they were undermarked most of their career - it was "their turn" in a way.

    But had B/A really skated well, I still believe 08 would have been their year. Having just won the Gold, they never would have left S/Z - although one of the other teams might have, we'll never know.

    The reigning WGM is always considered a frontrunner, so that would have put them in good shape in 09 too. Considering all the injuries that year, I am fairly sure they would have won again in 09. 2 time WGM would always be a favorite for OGM. So that fall really cost them big-time IMO.
  19. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    While Abbott was the reining US Champion, Lysacek, the reigning world champion, was in his own country in an Olympic year behind a skater that had never yet medaled at Worlds.
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  20. OlieRow

    OlieRow Well-Known Member

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    I've always felt that Tanith and Ben helped to pave the way for V/M and D/W to climb up the podium. Not just with their international success but also in terms of being role models and contributing to the motivational environment in Canton. They might not have won a medal in Vancouver but they certainly played a part in V/M and D/W's development and the success that came with it.
  21. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    Oh duh, I'm sorry, I could've sworn '09 was when Tanith fell in the CD! (Smacking head...)
  22. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Abbott skated so much better than Evan at Nationals the judges had no choice but to give him the victory. There would have been a huge uproar if they had given Evan the U.S title with the way both men skated thsi year. When it comes to singles skating it is hard to argue with a guy skating cleanly with a quad vs a guy who makes multiple major errors without one. In ice dancing there is far less likely to be something so tangible to force such a result upon the judges.

    Lets face it, Evan was always the real #1 U.S skater even after Abbott's Nationals win.
  23. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    You make alot of presumptions. Ice dance judges dont typically greatly change how they score future programs based on the results of the CD. If they did B/A would not have climbed to silver in Turin after finishing 6th in the CD. If B/A were really viewed as the #1 team by the judges at the 2008 Worlds they would have easily brought them up to atleast the bronze overall even with the fall in the CD which they did not.
  24. Debbie S

    Debbie S Well-Known Member

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    But remember that in Torino, the top 6 teams were very close after the CD - I think they were all within a point of each other. B/A didn't fall. It was easy for them to climb 4 spots in the OD b/c 1) they had a great OD and performed it at their best (which they didn't do with their '08 Worlds OD, IMO) and more importantly, 2) they didn't have to outscore the comp by that much. IIRC, B/A were several points behind after the CD at '08 Worlds and it's hard to make that up. And they didn't perform their OD and FD as well as they had at the GPF and Nats.

    Actually, B/A were very close to winning the bronze over K/N but they had a slight error (loss of balance) in their last lift in the FD that I believe caused the level (and certainly the GOE) to be dropped. As it was, they place 3rd in the FD, but it was not enough to overtake K/N overall.
  25. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Still if the judges considered them the #1 team there and the team that was going to win Worlds had all gone according to plan they would not have placed them 4th and 3rd for strong performances in the OD and FD and allowed a fall in the CD to prevent them from catching a team nobody expected to medal who even had a weak free dance performance. Ice dance judges dont take a team they were planning on giving gold to and mark them down lower in the other dances just because they fell in the CD, that is never how they have operated. I am not disputing B/A would have very easily beaten K/N without the fall in the CD of course (as you said they nearly did anyway).
  26. Debbie S

    Debbie S Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm, that's kind of a bold statement (use of "never"). ;)

    As I said, B/A did not give a "strong" performance of their OD and FD. The fall affected them in many ways - psychologically and politically. In dance, falls are rare (esp in the CD). When a favorite falls at Worlds, the judges will naturally think that they aren't WC material (at least not that year). They would rather see a team w/o a fall win. And there were also reports that after the fall, Marina went around politiking V/M to the podium (and I believe V/M's PCS marks went up significantly as the comp went on).

    I believe if B/A hadn't fallen in the CD, they would have won. Of course, that's contingent on them skating each program at their best. Would they have? Who knows....but I do think the odds were pretty good given how they'd been skating that season.
  27. MOIJTO

    MOIJTO Banned Member

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    No, I disagree, as I have said more than once their programs declined from 06, even without a fall in the CD they were pressed to be any better than 3rd. They were lucky to be 4th at Olys. I think that Ben's back and knee injuries were more the culprit of misfortune for them than Tanith's two left feet in the CD.
  28. Enthusiast

    Enthusiast New Member

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    That was NOT in 2008. IIRC it was in 2007 after the OD when Marina told the PRESS to keep an eye out for V/M as the future of ice dancing and they were talents from God or something like that.

    I believe it was already translated in one of the D/W threads but in one of the Russian video interviews, Marina and Igor said they did politiks for D/W during the Olympic season. That's probably what you saw.

    V&M (Tessa) made a mistake in the OD at 2008 Worlds which dropped them at least a level and dropped them to 3rd overall leading up to the FD that you forgot to mention.
  29. Debbie S

    Debbie S Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure Marina did a lot of politiking for V/M during each of the past 4 seasons. ;) But I do remember reading something somewhere that after B/A fell in the CD, Marina stopped politiking for B/A and started lobbying for V/M. Did this affect placements of B/A and V/M? I guess we'll never know, but as with anything politiks-related, we can speculate.

    I didn't "forget", I didn't mention details of V/M's performance b/c the thread is not about V/M. If you're comparing Tessa's mistake to Tanith's fall, I think that's reaching a bit. Tessa missed her blade catch on a twizzle and held it for 1 less rev, dropping the twizzles to Level 3. IIRC, their GOEs were still pretty good. A fall is a major error (esp in dance).

    And V/M didn't win, either ;), although they wouldn't have beaten DelSchoes even w/o the twizzle mistake.
  30. Enthusiast

    Enthusiast New Member

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    I'm not comparing the twizzle mistake to the fall, but to Tanith's "failed" lift you mentioned that resulted in level 3 in the FD.

    My point bringing up the messed twizzle is that since they DROPPED to 3rd, going by your logic, they wouldn't have come anywhere even close to 1st in the FD or win a silver medal.

    But yeah, I'm pretty sure the "reports" you saw were about Marina and Igor politicking for D/W during last season, because I do remember it to be pretty recent.
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2010
  31. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    OMG, the title makes me laugh so hard. I can't imagine this. But why not, they are not worse than Domnina&Shabalin.
    Anyway, we all know that the podium in ice dancing is not about what is on the ice. But for once, in Vancouver, judges gave the gold and silver to the deserving teams. The bronze is another story, but a podium with 2 american teams and no russian team was probably not something imaginable.
    My answer is : no change !
  32. cheriepopo

    cheriepopo New Member

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    I think even if Belbin didn't fall in 2008 worlds, DeloSchoen would be the champion still judging by the scores B/A and D/S got at that event. B/A's OD was 5th too IIRC, the judges just stopped loving them.
  33. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    As stated upthread, there could've been other factors involved there
  34. Quintuple

    Quintuple papillon d'amour

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    Another B/A what-if: What if Tanith did not get her citizenship by the 2006 Olympics, and they were aiming for 2010 as their first? Would their ascent have been "delayed", closer to 2010? Would they ever have switched coaches? Would they not have just retired?
  35. carriecmu0503

    carriecmu0503 Member

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    The answer to your question about delayed assent is no. Tanith and Ben won the silver medal at 2005 Worlds, before Tanith had citizenship. It looked like she would not get it before the Olympics at that time, either. It took a special act of Congress for her to get it on 12/31/05.
  36. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    There was that popular sentiment at the time that B/A were used as a non-threatening buffer to separate Navka/Kostomorov and the rest of the field before anyone knew Tanith would get her citizenship in time.
  37. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    But did the judges stop loving them because they fell or did it gave them an easy reason to drop them from contention because they ran out of love?

    Whether intentional or not, B/A's placement ended up serving a multitude of agendas.
  38. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I know some felt that way but B/A's silver medal at the Olympics pretty much disproved that theory IMO. I understand their rise to 2nd in 2005 too. Denkova & Stayviski who were often underrated were skating sloppy that year with a not so hot OD and an overcomplex and messy looking FD. Their twizzles were pretty weak that year for some reason. Grushina & Goncharov were never that big a threat at the very top and did well to even sneak out their 2 medals (which many didnt even agree with). Dubreuil & Lauzon werent a big threat yet in 2005. Delobel & Schoenfelder were the team that were most underrated in 2005, but they often were underrated in general anyway.
  39. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I'd agree with this. It's hard to imagine a Russian team not on the podium, but honestly, the judges could not have put Davis and White's FD at Olympics below Domnina and Shabalin's, without a HUGE outcry of bias (probably worse than the pairs fiasco in 2002).
  40. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Then again most seem to feel B&A were clearly better than D&S in Vancouver as well and they pushed them off to avoid a NA sweep. So maybe in this case D&W would have met with the same fate. Who knows.

    I wish Delobel & Schoenfelder had been the Euro team the judges had gifted with the token Euro medal, even though they clearly werent at their best in Vancouver either. I still dont think they were any worse than Domnina & Shabalin were there.