How would Bobek's '98 US programs have fared at '98 Olympics?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by skateboy, May 4, 2013.

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How would Nicole Bobek's '98 US Nats programs have placed at Nagano?

  1. Gold

    2 vote(s)
    4.5%
  2. Silver

    1 vote(s)
    2.3%
  3. Bronze

    25 vote(s)
    56.8%
  4. 4th or lower

    16 vote(s)
    36.4%
  1. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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  2. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    Judges loved Bobek. I could see her 4/3 for bronze overall. I'm sure no one else will agree with me tho.
     
  3. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    I do believe Nicole could have won bronze if she had replicated her Nationals performances at the Olympics. Comparing Chen Lu's Olympic programs filled with 4 under-rotated triples (the Lutz in the SP, the flip, the Lutz, and the toe loop in the LP) to Bobek's National programs (no under-rotated triples in either program and her only mistake being turning a 3loop to a 2loop in the LP), I believe the nod goes to Nicole. Obviously, the Olympic judges didn't give a care in the world to flutzing since Lipinski became Champion. Bobek's jumps were also bigger and her spinning ability was much better than Chen Lu's and Nicole definitely could compete with Lulu on an artistic level as well. If Bobek could have held it together, she could have been a World Champ in '95 and an Olympic medalist in '98.
     
  4. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Bronze. As high as second in the short and a clear third in the free.
     
  5. shady82

    shady82 Active Member

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    Definitely third. I think she would have been 4th in the short. Butyrskaya's short was solid - she had no flutzing and did a harder combo and solo jump. But Bobek is a clear 3rd in the long. Butyrskaya and Chen skated fine but not convincingly, and Slutskaya's maturity just wasn't there yet.
     
  6. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

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    Nicole would have deserved the bronze medal. The only way I could see it not happening is if the judges were just completely hell bent on making sure that the U.S. ladies didn't sweep the medals. The same way I think the judges were hell bent on making sure North American teams didn't sweep dance in Vancouver.
     
  7. essence_of_soy

    essence_of_soy Well-Known Member

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    I loved Bobek's skating because she was like a throwback to the supermodel era featuring Witt, Trenary, Conway, Thomas and Kadavy.

    When skating became gymnastics on ice, suddenly the top skaters were barely 5 feet tall and built like 10 year old girls.

    I would have given Nicole silver.
     
  8. OliviaPug

    OliviaPug Well-Known Member

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    Bronze. At her best, Nicole could't have beaten what Lipinski and Kwan put out there that night. But, if she skated as she did at Nationals, definitely bronze. There was a legitimate reason for those Campbell soup ads!

    O-
     
  9. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    I would say Bronze now because of the real predictions of a total US ladies sweep! The sweep potential was absolutely there! And the nationals skates were excellent! Even with the triple bobeks.
     
  10. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    There were too many skaters from other countries who were basically as good as Nicole. Judges would have had to see a LOT from her to place her over Maria B. in the SP and Chen Lu. in the FP. IIRC, she didn't have a triple jump in combination at 98 Nationals FP. I don't think split leap into 3t counted for purposes of the Zayak rule.
     
  11. dorianhotel

    dorianhotel Member

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    I think 5th or 6th really. Technically they werent that strong. Short program her combination was a big flutz-double toe, and only a solo triple toe. Long only 1 triple lutz, no triple loop, 5 triples, no triple-double. I also dont think the judges were that enthused of the idea of a U.S sweep. She might have changed the ordinals to put Butyrskaya or Slutskaya with the bronze. Then again I never thought Chen could medal in Nagano but with by far her best performance in years and tons of mistakes from Butyrskaya and Slutskaya she was able to medal so who knows.
     
  12. dorianhotel

    dorianhotel Member

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    True, she would have only been credited with 4 triples with her Nationals performances, no triple combination which was required and could have incurred a deduction (although Maria also had none and didnt seem to be deducted, it was all the two foot landings and pops and shaky landings and scared and nervy looking performance that hurt her). Judges also might have counted her huge triple flutz as a flip giving her 2 triple flips not in combination, and one of those would be discounted too. I agree there were too many foreign skaters who were as good as Nicole, and the judges would not have had a U.S sweep unless all 3 were head and shoulders above the others, and Nicole was not.
     
  13. JJS5056

    JJS5056 Active Member

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    Split jumps into triples absolutely qualified as fulfilling the Zayak rule under 6.0. Nicole's final toe did and would have counted at the Olympics, and she would almost definitely have won bronze in Nagano with those performances. Chen's free, while inspiring, didn't receive that strong of marks, especially for technical merit. Nicole's skate would have had no problem besting that set, and her presentation was worthy of a string of 5.8s.

    The flutz was a non-factor. It wasn't held against her in 1995 and it wouldn't have been held against her in 1998. Lipinski's 5.9s for technical merit, especially in short programs, proved time and time again that the judges weren't taking that flaw seriously yet and probably didn't until IJS.

    Regardless, was 0% chance of them counting it as a flip. Even under IJS, the benefit goes to the skater and it was clear that she was intending on completing a lutz jump based on the entry and the completely different technique (3 turn) into her actual flip later.

    You loved her skating because she looked like a supermodel? Yes, screw her triple lutz-triple toe, huge jumps, extension... everyone knows the most important aspect of this sport is the ladies' bodies. :rolleyes: More disturbing is that anyone would be looking at, let alone caring about and judging, how these athletes are "built," since it's fairly obvious what the '10 year old' comment refers to and a large portion of girls in this sport are under 18.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2013
  14. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

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    No one can use Nicole's flutz as a way to say she wouldn't have medaled. That is just silly. Lipinski had an insane flutz and Kwan's wasn't textbook, either. A flutz was of no concern to the judges at the time. Clearly.
     
  15. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    This. I think the only top rated lady in Nagano who had a true lutz was Maria B.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2013
  16. alchemy void

    alchemy void it's time for the perkolator

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    Definitely. Fourth behind Butyrskaya in the SP though. Both of Maria's jump passes were more difficult and executed perfectly.

    5 triple LP from Nicole definitely destroys what Chen, Butyrskaya, and Slutskaya put out there. I don't think it would even be particularly close in terms of ordinals.

    If Maria skates her NHK, GPF, or Euros LP, she beats Bobek though. Too many evil Euro judges on the panel. ;) I think she needed one triple to beat Maria, I really think the bronze was hers to lose, and unfortunately, she did.

    Slightly off topic, does anyone know why Bobek turned pro in 98-99 after competing on the GP? She had respectable results even if the skating wasn't (but no one skated well that autumn). It seems kind of random she would turn pro before even trying for Worlds. Her Mask of Zorro SP is soooo freaking good...the reprise of Evita in the LP was less successful, though.
     
  17. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Didn't Lu Chen have a true Lutz? Her SP on Youtube has a slo-mo replay of it and it looks like it takes off from a true outside edge.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxER4UaFxNA&feature=player_detailpage#t=252s

    I voted 4th just because I don't know what the judges would have done. It was a 3-way split between Bute, Slute, and Chen, so that makes it seem like there was no real consensus on who should have gotten bronze. That said, I'm not entirely convinced the judges wouldn't have been inclined to justify giving Bobek 4th or 5th place votes overall and propping up Chen, Bute, or Slute for personal reasons. I mean I know Chen underrotated a lot of her jumps and her spins were weaker, but I think Chen would still win on the presentation mark overall (due to the emotion, interpretation, and construction), while I think Slute and Bute were appreciated for other reasons as well. I found Bobek's LP to be forgettable, though her performance itself was nice (although that was more due to her performing it more or less cleanly rather than her actual presentation). Bobek may have won the bronze due to the ordinal splitting, but I'm not convinced it's a slam dunk the way other posters believe.

    I think the SP rankings would have been:
    1. Kwan
    2. Lipinski
    3. Butyrskaya
    4. Bobek
    5. Chen
    6. Slutskaya (though I think Bonaly should have been ahead).

    Although, I can see Bobek's much later skating order compared to Bute giving her advantage if she coupled that with a clean and inspired performance.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2013
    bardtoob and (deleted member) like this.
  18. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    double post
     
  19. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    She planned to skate at 1999 nationals but health issues, endometriosis and an ovarian cyst, forced her to withdraw. Her training never really got back on track afterward and she finally turned pro after being denied a bye to 2000 nationals. It's a shame about her missing 1999 nationals. She was getting better and better as the season progressed. I don't think she had a shot at beating Kwan in the U.S. but she might have medaled at 1999 worlds. Had she not been injured, Hughes would not have made the 1999 world team, wouldn't have been eligible for the 2000 worlds and wouldn't have been a factor in Salt Lake City. One can dream at least.
     
  20. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    double post
     
  21. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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  22. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    I would have liked to see a another triple flip to assure a third place
     
  23. mustafinabars

    mustafinabars Member

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    The way everyone skated probably. However had everyone skated their best the bronze would have gone to Butyrskaya, with Slutskaya 4th, Szewcenko (healthy and skating) 5th, and Bobek probably 6th. What is the point of assuming Bobek the most inconsistent skater ever skating her best, and not give the same consideration to others who also didnt. As it was it was a crappy competition outside the first 2 and a by then technically weak (even when she skated somewhat clean) Lu Chen was able to win the bronze.
     
  24. mustafinabars

    mustafinabars Member

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    Bonaly should not have been ahead. Yes her triple toe-triple toe was much harder than Irina's disaesterous double lutz-double toe, but every other one of Irina's 7 elements were much better, and her presentation was also much better. Bonaly was never that good a skater, she was only a top skater in the relatively weak 93-95 transition era. Once Irina overcome her as the best European skater in 96 her career was basically over.
     
  25. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Um, Bonaly's presentation was not weaker. Slutskaya's basic skating and speed was better so she wins on those points, but Bonaly had difficult spins that were centered so that wasn't as big of a detriment compared to Slute's spins. Her footwork was on par because Slute's FW didn't really best utilize her actual skills. Then in terms of presenting the music and to the audience, Bonaly was way ahead of Slute. That SP is probably the best SP of Bonaly's career.
     
  26. Lnt175

    Lnt175 Member

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    I think Bobek could have beaten Chen. I'm not a big fan of Nicole, but she had the 95 world title had she skated clean in the long. The problem with Bobek at that stage is she had discredited herself with the judges too somewhat. She had disastrous performances at almost all her GP's a few seasons before, melted down at 97 worlds etc. She had two good nationals in 97 and 98 though. Outisde of that I don't remember too many clean performances from her
     
  27. Erin

    Erin Well-Known Member

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    Hughes would have been eligible for Worlds in 2000 either way, because she was eligible as a result of her silver at 1999 Jr. Worlds, not any kind of grandfathering as a result of attending 1999 Worlds. The rule about Jr. World medalists being eligible for Worlds didn't change until after the 2000 Worlds, by which point Hughes was age-eligible anyway. You may recall that Cohen needed a medal at 2000 Jr. Worlds to be eligible for 2000 Worlds, which she didn't get, and the rule was changed shortly after - probably more because the change in timing of Jr. Worlds that season highlighted the rule rather than because of Cohen specifically.

    On the actual topic of the thread, I think she could have been anywhere between 3rd and 5th, but I'd lean towards fourth. The emotion of Lu Chen's performance had the judges forgiving what were considered minor errors under 6.0 and I don't think a solid performance by Bobek would have changed that. I feel like the judges wanted to give that medal to Chen over anyone else.
     
  28. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    IDK. I sometimes think the judges did not want to see one country sweep any podium, so they would've held Bobek down in 4th..

    Another tantalizing discussion - where would Tanja Szewczenko's performances from the '97 - '98 GPF placed her in relation to a clean Bobek, as well as Bute, Slute and Chen?
     
  29. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    No, that's not how it worked at the time. 1999 junior worlds would not have qualified Hughes. Skaters needed to medal at junior worlds in the season they wanted to compete at senior worlds. The ISU voted in the spring of 1999 to allow an exception to Hughes based on her performance at 99 senior worlds. Hughes and Wagner even talked about being grateful for the ruling when she won Vienna Cup in the fall of 1999 and that from then on out, she never had to worry about junior competitions.
     
  30. Lnt175

    Lnt175 Member

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    Thats interesting. Usually the judges lowballe Chen. The only time she was unanimously 1st or 2nd at a major competition was the LP at 96 worlds that I remember. I do agree that she had a slight advantage with the type of program construction she had. Butterfly lovers was on par with her Last Emperor program presentation wise. I also didn't get why she was critiqued for her footwork and spirals, I thought she always incorporated them beautifully in her programs from 94 onwards.