How would 2006 womens event in Turin have gone with everyone there and at best

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by judgejudy27, May 21, 2010.

  1. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    If everyone had been at the 2006 Olympics and everyone had skated their best how do you believe the results would have gone? By that I mean Asada and Kim were able to skate, Kwan was able to skate, and everyone who had been there did everything planned cleanly and as well as they could.

    I believe in that case the results would have been with their top content:

    Gold- Slutskaya (if she did atleast one triple-triple)
    Silver- Arakawa (if she did the two triple-triples she was doing in practice)
    Bronze- Cohen
    4th- Asada (with triple axel and triple-triple combos)
    5th- Kwan
    6th- Ando (with triple-triples)
    7th- Kim (with triple-triples)
    8th- Kostner (with triple-triple)
    9th- Rochette
    10th- Suguri


    On the other hand if Slutskaya and Arakawa did not attempt the triple-triples as they often did not anyway:

    Gold- Cohen
    Silver- Asada (assuming she does triple axel in long and triple-triple combinations in both programs which she always does)
    Bronze- Slutskaya
    4th- Arakawa
    5th- Kwan
    6th- Ando
    7th- Kim
    8th- Kostner
    9th- Rochette
    10th- Suguri
  2. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    That's one weird competition. Lol. Do you mean "at their best" in that year (2006)? Michelle was definitely in better shape in previous years. If you're saying just for that year, then I'll have to go with either Mao or Irina for the gold if they skated their best. I just find it hard to picture Sasha winning the gold because I never remembered her skating two clean programs.
  3. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I mean the best they were capable of that year. Kwan was IMO past her prime by that point, and also not at her best under COP, while someone like Kim was nowhere near the skater she was in future years nor with near the reputation. Just the best they were capable of at that point in time and how they likely would have been scored.

    Cohen has skated 2 clean programs before but only in cheesefests or before she became a gold contender. She skated 2 clean programs at 2000 Cup of Russia when she was a relatively new senior and placed 4th behind Irina, Sokolova, and Hughes. I think she might have skated 2 clean programs at the 2002 Nationals or maybe her LP had a small mistake.
  4. museksk8r

    museksk8r Well-Known Member

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    I'd probably go with:

    1. Slutskaya
    2. Kwan
    3. Arakawa
    4. Cohen
    5. Kostner
    6. Kim
    7. Asada
    8. Suguri
    9. Rochette
    10. Ando

    Let's face it . . . the top 3 have the best reputation (all senior World champs in that Olympic quad) and Irina as reigning World champ would get the biggest benefit of doubt and rep boost if everyone theoretically skated their best. Yes, Kwan had struggled at 2005 Worlds, but given this imaginary scenario that everyone is healthy and skating their best, she'd definitely be top 2 given that she had been working really hard for the Olympic season to become COP friendly. Cohen was and should be the odd woman out if all of Irina, Michelle, and Shizuka were at their best. Sasha was always the 2nd American when Michelle was flawless and healthy. Caro was reigning senior World bronze medalist and with her speed, triple+triples, long lines, and talent, she'd be a force if she was on. By winter 2006, Yu-Na was defeating Asada in major junior competition despite Mao having won the senior GPF. Fumie came in as the Japanese champion and 2-time World bronze medalist and 2003/2004 GPF champ having defeated Cohen, so her rep with the judges would have put her over Joannie and Miki. Rochette had not yet come into her own and didn't have the best confidence at this point in her career. I was most unsure of Miki and Joannie - they really could be flip-flopped in the judges' placements. I prefer Rochette's skating skills, style, and attention to choreography over Ando's, so I gave her the edge.
    Last edited: May 21, 2010
  5. attyfan

    attyfan Well-Known Member

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    It would have been a lot more exciting, and, might have attracted more fans to the sport.
  6. casken

    casken Well-Known Member

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    Arakawa looked almost unbeatable in practices, but I think the judges would have went with Slutskaya for whatever reason.
  7. Karpenko

    Karpenko Well-Known Member

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    Hmm thats actually tough. Because some of these skaters at their best exceed what we think they are capable of at their best.

    I didn't think Arakawa "not at her best" would come close to a 125 for a 5-triple LP before seeing what she looked like at the Olympics, but she did and she absolutely deserved it. She really looked amazing in Turin, and I think she's the only one capable of scoring over 70 in the SP and 135 for the LP. I say if she were to go clean, she'd win based on what she was doing in practice.

    This is where it gets tough.

    I think part of the reason Irina's PCS (even though she deserved them a lot of the time) were so high in 05-06 was because she was consistently the one who delivered, so judges felt safe awarding her high PCS. Much like Plushenko during the time.

    When you have skaters like Cohen, Arakawa, Kwan (without injury), etc at THEIR best, it makes Irina's PCS scores lower than what they usually are because stylistically, she's not as soft and refined as they are and when crowning an Oly ladies champ, thats usually what the judges go for. Most of the ladies besides Irina were always making mistakes, so you never saw their true PCS potential.

    Mao could be one to beat, but I don't think the judges would've awarded her high PCS unless the other top guns were making mistakes. She had the technical goods and charm but I think her lack of experience and being young would've made the judges hold back a bit with her if there were other clean performances by the top guns.

    Yu-Na started hitting her stride in 06 but she would've been lost in the shuffle IMO.

    I guess in the end, I honestly think the podium would've been exactly the same. Maybe clean Cohen LP would've gotten the PCS edge over everybody, but Shizuka and Irina would still have the TES.

    I think:

    1. Arakawa - 70+ SP (she intended to do 3/3) 135ish LP
    2. Cohen - same SP 130-135ish LP
    3. Slutskaya - same as Sasha (but would need the 3/3), but I think Sasha would edge her on PCS
    4. Asada - 64ish SP, 125ish LP
    5. Kwan (hate putting her here but what she was capable of was completely unknown)
    6. Meissner (that 129 at Worlds means you can't forget her)/Kim
    8. Ando/Suguri
    10. Rochette
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I actually forgot about Meissner briefly. I would have to think a bit where to place her. However she never would have managed the 129 she did at Worlds for the same skate at the Olympics. For starters the scoring at Worlds was much higher than the Olympics. Cohen and Suguri got higher SP scores for badly two footed combos with -2 GOE. Suguri got a much higher LP score at Worlds for a slightly worse performance. On top of all that Meissner was never going to pull the kind of PCS she did in the LP at Worlds which was made possible for her great skate through gaining judged respect through rounds of consistent skating and the situation she was in (weak depleted field, skating lights out after Cohen's splatfest).

    She would be lucky to get 120 for the exact same skate at the Olympics.
  9. Karpenko

    Karpenko Well-Known Member

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    If she were lucky enough to have the caller ratify her 3/3 in the SP and both 3/3's in the long, she would've been in the mix.

    I agree about the lower scores, though. The judges ran with her after Sasha made mistakes, but I think over 60 in the SP and low 120 LP could've been possible.
  10. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Well I cant imagine the judges leaving a reigning World bronze medalist out of the top 10 in her home country, meaning Kostner of course. Ando or young Kim seem unlikely to be dropped that low too if they skated their best. So I am guessing 1 of Rochette, Suguri, or Meissner (even with her 06 Worlds winning performances) would have been out of the top 10 even skating their best in this completely unrealistic hypothetical everyone else did too. I cant decide which one though.

    As for Shizuka I was shocked at her SP score. I didnt expect her to score anywhere near Slutskaya or Cohen in the SP if all 3 went clean with a triple-double combo and she did, since Shizuka is never a spectacular SP skater. So I already knew after that she had a good shot, but I was taken by surprise by that all the same.
  11. MikiAndoFan#1

    MikiAndoFan#1 Well-Known Member

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    1st - Irina
    2nd - Shizuka
    3rd - Sasha
    4th - Mao
    5th - Miki
    6th - Michelle
    7th - Carolina
    8th - Yu-Na
    9th - Fumie
    10th - Joannie

    I agree.
  12. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    But Junior Worlds was after the Olympics though, and Mao delivered one of the worst performances of her career at the event. If both skated clean at that time, I think Mao definitely had the edge over Yuna, since she just pulled one of the biggest upsets at the GPF and already had a lot of buzz from the media. If everyone skated clean in 2006, then the gold should go to Irina who had the reputation and the adapted well to the technical demands of the CoP. Michelle had the reputation but she did not adapt well to the new system. And by 2006, Sasha was gaining more ground as the no.1 US skater at least to the judges. I remember hearing more about Mao than Shizuka before the 2006 Olympics, so perhaps the judges may be more favorable to the younger Japanese skater if both were allowed to compete.
  13. MOIJTO

    MOIJTO Banned Member

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    Cohen would have won hands down! Irina still would have been 2nd and Michelle if healthy would have been 3rd.
  14. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

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    This is like one of those "time machine" discussions in boxing. If you could go back in time and grab the top 15 or 20 boxers throughout history, at their absolute best, and have a big tournament, who would win? Could Joe Louis beat Mike Tyson?

    The problem with skating is ..... when do you have the tournament? If you have it after the figures competition was eliminated, maybe Mao or Kim would win. If you have it back in 1960, they might place 12th and 13th. :eek:
  15. museksk8r

    museksk8r Well-Known Member

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    What's really comical about this imaginary scenario is our oversight of Japan being the only nation allowed to have 4 representatives. Had Asada not had the age ban against her and been allowed to compete, Ando wouldn't even be in the discussion here. However, this is a skating fans dream scenario thread, so I guess age bans and 3 national reps limits are nonexistent. :p
    Last edited: May 21, 2010
  16. museksk8r

    museksk8r Well-Known Member

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    Ahhh, BUTT, Slutskaya wasn't perfect at the GPF either. It's not like Asada knocked off Irina at her best!

    You're ignoring the fact that Kwan only skated in ONE COP competition though. By all reports, she had adapted her style to the code by the time of the all important Olympic season. This is a "dream" thread after all.
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah that is true. Ando wouldnt have even been at the Games in this scenario. It is funny to think Fumie actually won Japanese Nationals that year.

    I honestly cant see Kwan beating Cohen with both going clean under COP under the very safe assumption neither does a triple-triple (well actually Cohen had a triple-triple sequence which gave her 7 triples) but I suppose crazier things have happened.
  18. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    But this scenario is assuming that everyone is at their best at that particular time period right? You're also ignoring the fact that Yuna and Mao haven't competed against each other all season until Worlds, so you're essentially basing your predictions on one competition, where one skater was clearly wornout from coming off one of the biggest wins of her career. As for Michelle, I am not sure where she would place since she didn't compete much during pre-Olympic season. It's a dream thread but the orignal poster also said that it is according to what the skaters were capable of during that year, so since we are not sure what Michelle was capable of, it's uncertain how she'll do even if she were healthy.


    Actually, based on the personal best scores that the skaters were able to achieve up to that time, then the top four should go like this:


    1) Irina
    2) Sasha
    3) Shizuka
    4) Mao

    Shizuka actually achieved her PB score at the 2006 Olympics, but since she wasn't perfect there, it does show that she had the potential to get a even higher score.
    Last edited: May 21, 2010
  19. museksk8r

    museksk8r Well-Known Member

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    Your proposed scenario in this thread though was "everyone there and at their best" and Kwan at her best was more than capable of clean 7 triples with a triple toe+triple toe. She produced more clean 7 triples LPs than any of these ladies throughout her career. Michelle at her best would have shown up healthy with COP friendly programs too.
    taf2002 and (deleted member) like this.
  20. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I meant at their then best, not at their career best. Kwan had not done a triple-triple combination since 2002, and with an aged body which had to heal from various injuries, and not having even tried one in competition for so long I wouldnt consider that as part of her then best even fully healthy. Lets face it, we pretty much know Kwan at that point was not going to be doing a triple-triple. I dont assume Sasha's best included the triple lutz-triple toe she last did in 2003 either.

    Mao did skate poorly when she lost to Yu Na at the World Juniors. It is hard to see her losing to Yu Na skating like she did at the Grand Prix final. On the other side though if Kim and Asada had been age eligible Kim would have likely competed as a senior that fall and this would have helped her build a rep faster and maybe been more of a threat at this stocked brilliantly skated Olympics than most of us seem to think she would have been.
  21. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    Maybe, but at that time Yuna haven't even managed to break 180, while Mao's almost managed to hit 190 at the 2005 GPF. It's also true that both Yuna's skating and results dramatically improved after she started training the next year with Orser. Actually, I am curious to know if Mao's presence at the 2006 Olympics would have put more pressure on the veterans since she did create a buzz by beating them all at the Grand prix series. I remember hearing commentators saying that the big guns (Sasha, Irina, Shizuka) should be relieved that she wasn't old enough to compete at the Olympics.
  22. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    I have no clue. Slutskaya was clearly the favorite of the judges with her incredibly inflated scores throughout the season. But judges seemed to mark her down at the Olympics. So, I'm lost.
    With everyone at her best, I would have been with : Arakawa, Slutskaya, Cohen.
  23. museksk8r

    museksk8r Well-Known Member

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    It's one thing though to have your first BIG pressure cooker senior competition be the Olympics without having competed at senior Worlds before and without really establishing a reputation with the judges the way Mao would have been challenged with in 2006 and a totally different thing with Oksana, Tara, and Sarah all going into 1994, 1998, and 2002 as reigning senior World medalists, having had more time to establish their reps with the judges and beating reputable skaters on more than one occasion. Who knows how Mao would have done in Torino dealing with that level of pressure in a senior competition for the first time? Think Tara Lipinski at the 1996 Worlds or Sasha Cohen at the 2002 Olympics. Besides, the only eventual 2006 Olympic medalist that Mao had faced at the GPF was Irina. Both Shizuka and Sasha were not even there, so it's not like Asada had beaten a totally loaded field at that GPF; plus, as I mentioned before, Irina was not at her best at that competition . . . it was an underwhelming GPF event actually.
    Last edited: May 21, 2010
  24. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    Mao met up with all three of the eventual medalists during the Grand Prix series. She beat both Sasha and Shizuka at her two earlier Grand prix events prior to meeting up with Irina at the GPF. I didn't say Mao would beat Irina at her best then. (Anyways, you used the same argument for putting Yuna above Mao when she clearly wasn't at her best at Junior Worlds that year.) I am just curious how it would have turned out had she been allowed to be compete there. I think it would probably have been a much more exciting Olympics than how it turned out to be.
  25. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Asada actuaully was a combined 5-1 vs Cohen, Arakawa, and Slutskaya that year. A perfect 3-0 vs Arakawa, 1-0 vs Cohen, and 1-1 vs Slutskaya. Not that it neccessarily means too much and certainly doesnt mean she was ever a shoo in or anything but interesting nonetheless.
  26. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    I think a perfect Cohen would have gotten the gold. The judges had been salivating to give her gold her entire career, she just never delivered. Then I guess Irina with the silver, Shizuka with bronze. Asada would have gotten the "wait your turn" treatment and finished fourth or so.
  27. Indra486

    Indra486 Well-Known Member

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    Since Miki is included in this discussion, despite the technicality that was pointed out, and we're going by the scenario that everyone hits their planned programs, wouldn't Miki place higher? She was aiming for a quad. Her PCS would certainly hold her back but I would think that Miki would place a bit higher than where she's is currently (looking at various lists). I suppose her quad could balance out the low PCS so her ranking might be about correct from what most of you have said.
  28. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Miki was planning a quad? This is news to me. The last quad I even saw her try was at a cheesefest in 2004 and it was horribly cheated, basically 3.25 rotations.
  29. MikiAndoFan#1

    MikiAndoFan#1 Well-Known Member

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    Didn't she attempt one at the Olympics?

    --'

    So she obviously planned one.
  30. Fallcolor

    Fallcolor New Member

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    My opinion- Cohen would have the highest PCS, but Arakawa would have won in TES and enough to win gold overall.

    Frankly I’m confused as to why so many people chose Slutskaya. For me, the most telling sign that she would not win if the ladies skated clean was the fact that Sasha hung onto 1st place (rightfully so) after the SP despite having –GOE on 2 jump elements (flutz and axel). Her PCS was almost a full point ahead of Slutskaya/Arakawa, and the scores were only factored at 0.8!
    (btw judgejudy, correct me if i'm wrong, but Arakawa only planned one 3-3 in the LP- the sal+toe, since she wasn’t doing the 3lz+3loop combo anymore during her full run-thrus). Regarding TES, I think Arakawa would have been 1st, Slutskaya 2nd. Arakawa was the only lady to gain level 4’s on spins and 3’s on footwork, had a slightly higher base value, but most of all the GOE’s and the quality of her jumps were far ahead of Slutskaya. Slutskaya’s landings carried no speed, were not of high quality, but the judges seemed to love big/high jumps anyways so they would probably give her higher GOE’s than Cohen. Cohen would have probably been 3rd on TES with no 3+3.

    PCS- Cohen would have won on that, for sure. Now, others may disagree with me on this, but I think Arakawa would have gotten slightly higher PCS than Slutskaya, even if reputation helped Slutskaya. Arakawa tends to show her beautiful qualities better in the LP than in the SP, so it is not surprising that Slutskaya slightly got higher PCS in the SP. Slutskaya is more of a powerful, quick skater, and her SP showcased her strengths more than the LP did. After the SP Arakawa was almost tied with Slute on PCS so the judges obvi liked her. But I think Slutskaya knew she was in trouble because the SP was where she could have made a big lead for herself but didn't. A clean Sasha (or Michelle) would almost always beat Slutskaya in PCS. Oh, and i didn't include Kwan b/c we never saw her compete that season. Charlie cyr mentioned she did her homework on levels etc but...so did Slutskaya and Cohen, who lost levels in the spins and footwork. So who knows.

    But... i'm torn on Arakawa and Cohen in the LP! I guess the question is would Sasha garner enough PCS to beat Arakawa's TES.
    IMO the results would be:

    1. Arakawa (71 if she did 3+3 in SP+ 135 in LP)
    2. Cohen (66+134-135?)
    3. Slutskaya (66+130)
    4. Asada (64+125)
    5. Kostner (66+120ish)
    6. Meissner
    7. Suguri
    8. Rochette
    9. Ando
    Last edited: May 22, 2010
  31. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Sasha usually gets -GOE on even some of her clean jumps, especialy the flutz once the judges began to score it correctly. At the 2005 Worlds she had only 2 jumps at most with small mistakes and still had -GOE on 4 of her 7 jumping passes. For her standards that was the best she could do, in fact it is still probably her best SP performance ever. She also was lucky to skate last of the contenders in the SP.
  32. Fallcolor

    Fallcolor New Member

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    sorry i cannot agree! In 05 she only got -GOE on (f)lutz, 3flip that she stumbled on and 3+3seq on a step out, so it's understandable. When her jumps were clean she never got -GOE's.
    In Torino, i actually thought that other than the first 3 LP jumps, the rest of her jumps were the best quality ones she's ever done. It didn't have the usual fragile shaky edge landing we usually see from her. In fact at the olympics imo her GOE's were somewhat undermarked. :lol: The 3+3seq was 2 footed at the end, but a -1.14 is a bit harsh, no? when compared to Slutskaya's -.29 for a 2footed 3flip. Sasha's 3f+2t was beautiful, even if it was tiny, but got no GOE. :(
  33. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    "At there best" . . . since Asada had beaten Cohen and Slutskaya earlier in the season, I think she would have won.

    Podium:

    1. Asada
    2. Slutskaya
    3. Kwan
    4. Cohen (assuming her best means only one screw up)
  34. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    A triple flutz for Sasha is a clean triple lutz for her. She isnt capable of doing it as anything other than a flutz, she never once has in competition atleast. And she usually got -GOE on it even landing it cleanly once the judges began scoring it correctly (she was lucky she didnt compete now as it would be scored far worse today). So to count that as a "mistake" in any form for her makes no sense.

    Even with her shaky double axel (and Sasha even at her best is good for atleast one of those) it was still the best short program performance she ever did according to most. That was Sasha at her best, and she still probably wouldnt have even won the short if she didnt skate last considering she won it by only 0.03 as it was.

    I also think the judges scored Sasha's jump GOE correctly in Turin. Most of them should be 0s IMHO. Sasha's strength is everything outside the jumps and her medicore basic skating. Her jumps are small and quite ordinary in everyway with sometimes bad takeoff technique even when she does make them. In 2004 she was getting outrageous GOE on her jumps (far higher than say then nobody Arakawa in the same events) so it was nice to see them scored correctly in her final 2 injury marred seasons (apart from blip of a comeback).
  35. UGG

    UGG Well-Known Member

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    Well, if we are going by the way they were skating currently at that time, I would say the top 4 would have been Irina, Shiz, Mao, Sasha.The best Irina ever skated was 2005 worlds LP. if she had skated like that she would have won. Shizuka would have been a close second, even if she had done a 3/3, I just do not see how the judges would deny Irina the gold with that type of skate. I think Mao would have taken the bronze with a clean skate. Sasha's very best has always included some type of error. She has never skated an error free program so I cannot put her at the top because her best was never good enough, sadly. I don't know where to fit Kimmie in here. She skated amazing at worlds. I guess I would put her ahead of Sasha because technically it was better than anything Sasha was capeable of. maybe I would even put her third. I have no idea how to rank Michelle. Based on the previous season, and how she skated at that cheesefest, she would really not be in the mix due to her hip injury. But we really truly do not know.
  36. Domshabfan

    Domshabfan Well-Known Member

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    If everyone was clean, by looking at the SP scores i would think that panel of judges would award the gold to Sasha Cohen, silver to Mao, Bronze to Arakawa or Slutskaya. I think Shiz would be favored for bronze medal considering how she almost outscored Ira with a slighly flawed combination jump. Yuna would have rounded of top 5.

    But, as we all know, Sasha could never deliver two back to back clean performance at a competition, hence Mao would have taken the gold ahead Shiz and Ira. i do think scores would have been so tight that Yuna would have had a realistic chance for gold, after all Yuna did finish ahead of Mao later that year at the world Juniors and successfully did a 3+3 in both her programs.
  37. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure even how to consider what Sasha's best might have been given that she never, ever delivered a clean short and a clean long in a senior competition -- at least not once that I remember. Do you hypothesize that this might be that one time when everything works (It's a Miracle!) or are we talking "skates her best" given a more likely jump scenario?

    I mean, using the "skates her best" theory I'd guess any number of skaters could have won in 2006. I just don't think you can completely get away from competition psyche -- some skaters are (and were, then) much better competitors than others. Czisny is a beautiful skater on so many levels, but she has big nerve problems and is not a good competitor. Do you set up the hypothetical competition as if those nerves weren't an issue and Czisny magically lands every jump along with delivering her wow spins? (And I know Czisny wasn't at the Olympics in 2006, but she's the best example that comes right to mind.)

    Maybe it would make more sense to consider what if each skater in the event had skated her SP as well as she'd skated her SP at any of the GP or Euro/4CC events that season, and the same for the LP. Then you'd at least be in the realm of the reasonably possible.
    Last edited: May 22, 2010
  38. taf2002

    taf2002 Well-Known Member

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    For all the contenders who were actually there, I think we have to take the results that they actually had...Sasha with 2 falls, Shizuka with only 5 triples & no 3/3, & Irina with a completely lackluster LP. There is no reason to believe they could have done anything other than what they did. Same with Fumie, Miki, et all.

    We can only speculate about what Mao, Yuna, & Michelle would have done. In my dream scenerio Michelle is healthy with 3 & 4 levels on everything & her 3T/3T successful. So the result is

    Kwan
    Shizuka
    Cohen
    Slutskya

    No way do the judges let either of the 14yr olds win.
  39. Indra486

    Indra486 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2006
    Messages:
    1,650
    Yep, she did and she fell on it. I was wondering where Miki would have placed with a successful quad and triple-triple since we're all assuming that everyone would land their planned jump layout.
  40. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,324
    Mao and Yu Na were both 15. ;)