How many of the world and Olympic titles in next 4 years will Hanyu win

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by itoaxel, Jul 29, 2014.

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How many additional worlds/Olympics does Hanyu win

  1. only 1 more

    12.5%
  2. 2 more

    14.0%
  3. 3 of the next 4 or 5

    39.7%
  4. 4 more (either losing one or skipping 2018 worlds)

    18.4%
  5. all 5

    15.4%
  1. pocoloco

    pocoloco New Member

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    I think I was a bit too optimistic in voting 4... But I think it's a safe bet that he'll be on the podium in every competition he enters from now on.

    For the future, I honestly see him as the top dog and other people will, on different occassions, challenge him (unless if Fernandez gets his ass into gear to become a consistent threat). It's Hanyu vs. the rest, really. The thing is, he has the BV, the GOE, and honestly, his SS+TR are pretty much at the top of the field now that Chan is gone (minus Kozuka). He also knows how to peak at the right times. He gets his crappy performances out during the GPS and is usually top-form for GPF, Nationals, and Worlds. Assuming he's in decent physical condition (not like the crappy state he was in for 2012-2013, where he still put out solid performances despite being sick like a dog and injured)... I think he's pretty much in control of his own destiny. Crazy to say about a 19 year old, but that's Hanyu.
     
  2. UMBS Go Blue

    UMBS Go Blue KWEEN 2016! YES WE KWAN!

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    And indeed, being that smug about his prospects is a mighty temptation for the skategods to make 0 happen.
     
  3. orientalplane

    orientalplane Mad for mangelwurzels

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    Jason is wonderful to watch, but at the moment he's having trouble landing triple axels, let alone quads.
     
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  4. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    If he doesn't gain consistency I can see him having a Chan-like trajectory. He'll keep winning for a while, but there will be pushback if he keeps winning with mistakes. The rules can always be changed or the next person's PCS can be inflated (as Hanyu's were to match Chan's :shuffle:). I think he's extremely talented but it's still strange for me to think of someone who has fallen in just about every major competition, often multiple times, as this unbeatable force.
     
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  5. Simone411

    Simone411 aka IceSkate98

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    I agree with this. I totally love Jason because he has a style all his own. It's original. I feel in the next 4 years or so that he will work out the problem with the quads and axels.
     
  6. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this. If he doesn't improve his consistency (which he has done this year but must continue) and start skating perfect or near perfect competitions more regularly, he will probably win the next 2 worlds, but then start to be challenged more. TPTB wont be happy with a repeat of what we saw by the 2013 worlds for Chan. However if he gains real consistency, he probably wont be touched until after 2018 (if he even bothers to keep competing by then).
     
  7. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. How would anyone beat him other than on an off day right now. And even if he makes mistakes he is very hard to beat amongst the current field. His base value beats all others. His GOE will beat all others quite easily. And his PCS are the highest of the remaining competitors. Add that all up and he has a mistake cushion similar to what Chan used to have for now (as much as I hate that sort of thing, and makes me hate the current system).
     
  8. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    I voted for 2 more. He looks unbeatable now, but he almost lost the world title to Machida in 2014. Nothing is safe. There will be other challengers, including Chan. Hanyu could win 2 more world titles or 1 world and 1 Olympic title. He is still going to be the one to beat in 2018 because he is so young and is likely to develop his artistry.
     
  9. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    Chan isn't even certain to compete again at all, let alone be a big threat. If he comes back but doesn't come back before 2017 he definitely wont be a big factor, when he does.
     
  10. Japanfan

    Japanfan Well-Known Member

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    After 2010 Chan set the two-quad standard and others soon started landing two or more quads, sometimes two different ones.

    Now Hanyu's BV is the standard and I suspect that other men will start increasing their BV. Chan through two quads and 1 3A were enough, the guys coming up will know they aren't, not if they want to beat a clean Hanyu. And among those coming up there could be one who challenges Hanyu in terms of PCS, just as Hanyu challenged Chan.

    There are always surprises in FS. Who suspected that Denis Ten would be a World and Olympic medalist? Plenty of people thought he was really talented, but the same can be said of many other skaters.
     
  11. pocoloco

    pocoloco New Member

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    I agree that Hanyu is now put into the position that Chan was in around 3-4 years ago in that he's the one to be chased, and it is of course easier to chase than to be the chased. Any faltering or lack of consistency that will give the judges a reason to doubt him will be his downfall, just like it was Chan's. That being said, I think Hanyu can grow to be a very consistent competitor, not unlike Plushenko.

    I'm not sure any of the junior men transitioning into seniors right now can pull off a Hanyu to, you know, beat Hanyu four years from now, so I would wager his competition would have to be from the young men we've already seen in seniors like Yan, Kovtun, Fernandez, or even Gachinski if he can pull himself together. Reynolds and Boyang Jin have the technical firepower to potentially be in the mix too, but I find their presentation to be so lacking that I wouldn't particularly bet on them.
     
  12. Japanfan

    Japanfan Well-Known Member

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    I actually think Reynold's artistry has improved in spades these past few seasons, especially when he's worked with Shae-Lynne Bourne, who IMO really knows how to bring out expression in a skater. I never thought the day would come when I would say I enjoyed a Kevin Reynolds program but there have been a few. Kevin seems to be finding his own unique style - quirky and off-beat, but his nonetheless.

    Now that he's top man in Canada he will hopefully get even better. He could for sure be in the mix, if lands all his quads and finds a program that really works for him.
     
  13. pocoloco

    pocoloco New Member

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    Actually, I agree with you that he's improved a lot in expression/interpretation of the music, but compared to the top tier of men I still find the overall quality of his movement awkward, especially his carriage/posture/skating skills. But fair enough, he certainly does have own unique charm. The way I see Reynolds is that when his jumps are on, his programs are not half-bad, but when his jumps fail him, he doesn't have a fail-safe to fall back on and the programs really suffer.

    Maybe I shouldn't have grouped him with Boyang Jin, who I think is quite a ways back from even Reynolds in presentation. Then again, he's what, 16. :p
     
  14. rickmercer

    rickmercer Member

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    Reynolds career peaked in 2013. He isn't good enough to ever go beyond that. As for being a threat to Hanyu, Hanyu would have to fall 4 times to lose to Reynolds on a really good day ever again in the future. He would have to skate much worse than he did at 2013 4CC's since Hanyu was not the dominant skater at that point. Reynolds doesn't come close to Hanyu in any aspect of skating. His jumps are much smaller, struggles with rotations, and GOE on them will get smoked by Hanyu. His base value isn't even higher than Hanyu's anymore.
     
  15. escaflowne9282

    escaflowne9282 Well-Known Member

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  16. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    If the field is so weak Reynolds is a contender than probably all 5.
     
  17. montrealsurfa

    montrealsurfa New Member

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    Nobody can beat him unless he falls all over the ice now that Chan is retired.
     
  18. montrealsurfa

    montrealsurfa New Member

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    Except this didn't happen with Chan. Judges ignored and overlooked his gaffes for years and gave him titles with falls. Hanyu is so far ahead of the rest as Chan was before, he could even do that too.
     
  19. montrealsurfa

    montrealsurfa New Member

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    Yeah it has improved a lot but that doesn't mean much when it was so super bad before.
     
  20. pocoloco

    pocoloco New Member

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    Yes, Chan was forgiven for many things for many years because of his superior skating abilities and overall quality, but he was not given the same leeway when Hanyu's PCS had closed in on his, probably as a fail-safe against another major controversy if Chan were to falter at the Olympics.

    What we can take/hope from 2014 Worlds is that Hanyu's PCS won't be marked above and beyond other competitors like Chan's was for years (whether Hanyu deserves it or not), simply because of the public outcry that would happen again with wins due solely to a significant PCS gap. If Hanyu wins with falls, it will still be largely because of his TES, and I think that's deserved until falls are punished more severely.
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2014
  21. hirtmoles31

    hirtmoles31 Member

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    That is good since who would want Hanyu to be the farce Chan will be remembered as. Hope he never has a title like Chan had at the 2012 and 2013 worlds. Poor Chan, Hanyu will surpass his achievements even without the controversies Chan had.
     
  22. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Chan retired? I have not seen the announcement. When did this happen?

    We don't know right now who the new talented skaters are, who could develop enough to challenge Hanyu. They could even be from Japan. In 2011 or 2012 nobody thought that Hanyu would come along and keep Chan from winning the OGM. Four years is a long time.
     
  23. conway

    conway New Member

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    By 2012 many were predicting Hanyu to soon be a big threat to Chan.
     
  24. conway

    conway New Member

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    Hanyu is both more consistent and potential high scoring than all those. Mentioning Kovtun is crazy. He is a long way from the top guys.
     
  25. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    Chan said he'd skip this season, but isn't sure about afterwards, afaik. Maybe some people just misinterpreted that as him retiring?

    Some people did say Hanyu could be a candidate for 2014 already in 2010, when he won JW. One of them was Plushenko, naming him the possible favorite. Pretty much everyone else said he'd be one to look out for in 2018.
    Right now, I don't think any of the Juniors look that outstanding. Quite a few are great, but not quite up to catching Hanyu, IMO. And even if they prove to develop a lot better than I thought, it's still in Hanyus hands - the judges love consistency. If he manages to start skating better on an overall level, at least at the big competitions (and he already had a big upwards trend last season), then I think there won't be such an 'opening' as there was last season with Chan. If he rightfully dominates next season, it could get near impossible for the others to beat him the following season.
     
  26. hirtmoles31

    hirtmoles31 Member

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    Chan hasn't announced any retirement yet but you wont be seeing him again competing. Bet on it.
     
  27. docktrump

    docktrump Member

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    He will win 4 or 5, depending if he chooses to compete at the 2018 worlds. The only one who can possibly beat him is Fernandez IMO. Machida will never come that close again. Ten will never beat him again. I doubt Kovtun or Brown can ever beat him. The new crop of juniors is not impressive enough to challenge him by 2018, and the future juniors will be too young by 2018.
     
  28. anatric

    anatric New Member

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    Nobody can beat him if he stays reasonably healthy, stays fairly consistent, and keeps improving. All are likely.
     
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  29. jeffclair

    jeffclair New Member

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    He will win anywhere from 3-5 if he competes in all 5. No less than 3 for sure. If he competes in only 4 of them, then 2-4.
     
  30. daverobert

    daverobert New Member

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    I think 3 or 4 is most likely. He will compete in all 5 as he doesn't strike me to be the type to skip a worlds even in his final year, and it is quite possible 2018 isn't his final year anyway. He will lose 1 or 2, probably to Fernandez.