How many of the world and Olympic titles in next 4 years will Hanyu win

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by itoaxel, Jul 29, 2014.

How many additional worlds/Olympics does Hanyu win

  1. only 1 more

    11.5%
  2. 2 more

    16.9%
  3. 3 of the next 4 or 5

    39.9%
  4. 4 more (either losing one or skipping 2018 worlds)

    17.6%
  5. all 5

    14.2%
  1. itoaxel

    itoaxel Member

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    In the next 4 years there are 5 world and Olympic events. How many of those would you predict Hanyu to win.
     
  2. itoaxel

    itoaxel Member

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    Wow, someone already voted only 1 more? That is surprising. Could this poster explain why they think that.
     
  3. Milana

    Milana New Member

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    I don't want to jinx him, so I voted only 1 more.
     
  4. travismoncton

    travismoncton New Member

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    Atleast 3 minimum. Anyone who picks 1 or 2 is crazy.
     
  5. satine94

    satine94 awaiting the scores

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    I can see him winning the majority of them too, but that would rely on no other skater coming along to match him (very possible) and him remaining completely injury-free (which is less possible).
     
  6. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I voted for four, but I forgot that Chan might be back. I still think Hanyu could win all of them though since Chan might not come back as good as he was before, and I'm not sure if Fernandez/Ten/Kovtun et al. can beat him!
     
  7. FTnoona

    FTnoona New Member

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    Hanyu's always good for at least one mistake per competition. I think eventually, one of Fernandez, Kovtun, Machida, etc would be able to capitalize on that.
     
  8. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    Yeah since those guys are known for skating clean programs. :lol: Kovtun is the most overhyped skater out there at the moment. He will never be a world champion, just as Plushenko said. Machida is old and near the end of his career. Fernandez, Ten, Brown, Farris, and the juniors are Hanyu's biggest threats moving forward.
     
  9. tristanwirtz

    tristanwirtz New Member

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    He lacks the talent of Jason Brown and Artur Gaschinski so only 3 more at most.
     
  10. FTnoona

    FTnoona New Member

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    That's why I said eventually :D Machida is a year older than Fernandez so shouldn't they be grouped together then? I never would have though that Reynolds could beat Hanyu, but thanks to him skating really well in the FS and a sloppy FS by Hanyu it happened at 4CC '13. One of those mentioned skaters could probably do it again. Machida almost did it this year and Hanyu had a fairly good competition at worlds.
     
  11. lauravvv

    lauravvv Well-Known Member

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    24 (25 next year) was old by figure skating standards before, but now it is changing. Machida is near the end of his career not because he is "old", but because he apparently wants to do other things in life. At this point the decision to stop competing after the next season is Machida's own, and not one that his body has made for him.
     
  12. UMBS Go Blue

    UMBS Go Blue KWEEN 2016! YES WE KWAN!

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    The poll lacks an obvious option: 0.
     
    CantALoop, Dr-minus, Kecasyl and 2 others like this.
  13. shirokjj

    shirokjj New Member

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    Machida had a perfect short and nearly perfect LP. If he wants to beat Hanyu he'll need give a repeat of his WC performaces and depend on Hanyu making big mistakes like he did on his WC short. Although Hanyu skated a foot perfect LP, his executions were messy and not to his usual standard, since he generally gets the best GOE out of all his competitors.

    I say he'll probably get 2 more, and I think Fernandez is due for one in a year or two. Olympics is 50/50.

    He recently said he wanted to stay till 2018 and he'll be 27/28 by then.
     
  14. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    The odds of a lottery ticket are better than 0.
     
  15. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    Chan might have trouble if he returns. Instead of falling three times in a long program, he'll fall four.
     
  16. radiatesglow

    radiatesglow New Member

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    2 or 3 sounds like a nice even estimate. He will probably enter all 5 and split the titles with the field.
     
  17. radiatesglow

    radiatesglow New Member

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    That isn't a realistic option, probably why OP excluded it.
     
  18. radiatesglow

    radiatesglow New Member

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    Every skater has some injuries. Many skaters have gone through long careers never too injured to skate well going into a major event though.
     
  19. radiatesglow

    radiatesglow New Member

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    Machida wont win a major title. Worlds this year was as close as he will get. He benefited from some generous home court scoring, skated the best he could, and still couldnt do it. He might get another world medal or two, but no world title and wont medal in 2018 if he still around by then. Someone like Fernandez is a much bigger threat in the years ahead.
     
  20. radiatesglow

    radiatesglow New Member

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    Fernandez strikes me as a late bloomer. Some might think Machida can be, but he has been fighting to make the Japanese world team for years. He has been a really strong skater since 2011 now, so I don't think he will be a real late bloomer, but will be strong and near his best another year or two. Cant see beyond that even if he stays. Fernandez seems to still have a lot of potential improvement left. He needs to improve his work ethic I think.

    When it comes to age you have to draw the line somewhere, otherwise we can say this one is one year older than this one, then this one, then this one, and then someone is in the same age bracket as someone 10 years younger.
     
  21. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I heard that Fernandez smokes. If true, and he wants to be World champion, he really should stop doing that. ;)
     
  22. prissycat

    prissycat New Member

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    Right now he controls his own fate in each event he is in. So it is up to him, unless the others improve.
     
  23. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    Remember that pretty much no one even knew who Hanyu was four years ago. It's not out of the question that some unknown skater will come along and peak at the right time during the next quad.

    I voted two titles.
     
  24. eternitygoddess

    eternitygoddess Active Member

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    ^People were already taking note of Hanyu since his junior days, and compared him to Plushenko in terms of talent, but no one thought he'd rise so fast through the ranks. Everyone pegged him for 2018.
     
  25. FTnoona

    FTnoona New Member

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    He actually looked like a very promising junior in 09-10 when he won everything on the junior circuit. He already had a solid huge 3A and great flow for a 15 year old. I don't think you really see any of that from the top juniors from the 13-14 season. Not saying that it won't happen, but right now I don't see any of them shaking things up as early as Hanyu did in his senior career. But as you said, a skater just needs to peak at the right time.
     
  26. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    I voted for 2 more. I don't want to be too optimistic since he has flaws, and it's not that easy to win a lot of World and Olympic titles. If it was so easy, Alexei Urmanov, Ilia Kulik would be World Champions, and Michelle Kwan Olympic Champion and Yu Na Kim 2-time olympic Champion.
     
  27. seagulls

    seagulls New Member

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    2015 worlds is already his. Nobody can improve enough in just 1 year to catch him. And none of this Machida lost to him by less than a point at worlds since Machida skated out if his mind and benefited from a huge home court boost to his scores, while Hanyu wasn't at his best. After that it depends if he stays healthy, if he keeps growing, and who emerges. However I don't see any of the young juniors we see now challenging him in the next 4 years. So it looks good for him. Fernandez or Kovtun would have to really improve for him to have any competition in 2016-2018 I believe.
     
  28. wristflick

    wristflick New Member

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    Even if that happened once or twice, it would not happen all the time. So he would still win some/most of the titles.
     
  29. DreamSkates

    DreamSkates Well-Known Member

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    There's always someone coming up behind the current skaters on top, watching what they do, figuring out what it takes to beat them. And somebody likely will.
     
    Vash01 likes this.
  30. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Active Member

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    What kind of strategy would be there to beat Hanyu though? The only strategy is "get points". There are 3 different 'categories': BV, GOE, PCS. You have to get more points than him in any of this categories. If he manages to rotate everything in his new layout, the jump BV alone would be around 78 point. Added spins and steps, that's over 90 points in BV alone. Additionally, he is very good in garnering GOE (and that in jumps and spins and steps!), and his PCS are high as well. It's not just that he's good in those things, even if he wasn't, judges hand out higher marks for high BV programs anyway.
    I don't want to dismiss the junior skaters we have now, or the talented group already skating seniors, but I don't really see anyone out-BVing Hanyu in the next seasons. So I don't think anyone is going to be the favorite over him.

    On the other hand, of course he could be beaten in single competitions depending on how many mistakes he makes. There are a bunch of skaters who could become good enough to do that: Fernandez is the most obvious choice, IMO. Not so sure about Machida, because I have no idea if he trains an additional quad for example, or what his overall plans are. I'm not too sure he'll manage to improve enough the next seasons to repeat his near-WC-win against Hanyu, when Hanyu still looks like he'll get better himself. Han Yan would be my personal pick to get Hanyu into trouble, but he's so inconsistent himself by now. A quad-getting Brown could be a good bet too, but maybe that's just me being optimistic. Kovtun has the quads, but I'm personally to underwhelmed with everything else about his skater, but maybe I'm underestimating him.