How could healthy and clean Kwan have done in Turin

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by KimGOAT, Apr 15, 2014.

How could healthy 6 triple Kwan do do in Turin

  1. gold

    64 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. silver

    61 vote(s)
    31.8%
  3. bronze

    34 vote(s)
    17.7%
  4. 4th or lower

    33 vote(s)
    17.2%
  1. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    She should have then went to a special coach for triple jumps, and another for spins. :lol:

    I am glad they probably gifted Witt up in figures in Sarajevo just since Sumners winning by default with such weak and choking performances, only due to a monstrous lead in figures, wouldnt have been good for the sport when 2 of the last 3 Olympic winners were Schuba and Poetzsch.
     
  2. iarispiralllyof

    iarispiralllyof Active Member

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    So we're assuming that even if she was healthy she still would have been too injured before that to train? Actually she had just done a 6 triple program the prior season at Campbell's...
     
  3. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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    The premise of the question is that she is healthy and does 6 triples. She did six triples in 2001-02, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05--in other words, every season that she competed (not even counting earlier seasons). So an uninjured Kwan certainly could have done 6 triples at Turin. Given how everyone else skated, I think there's little doubt she would have won gold under the hypothetical posed by the original poster.
     
  4. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    I also took healthy to mean totally healthy, like near-her-prime condition. Not the Kwan that we got from 2003-2006 where she was ignoring and aggravating a hip and groin injury to the point where she became unable to compete in Torino. Arutunian said in an interview that in the seasons he was coaching her, there were times where Kwan would come to the rink and be too hurt to train. I think that explains a lot of things (like program construction, 6 triples, not doing the GP series, etc.).
     
  5. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Well assuming her to be in her 2001 condition (even just purely health wise) all over again is to suspend all sense of reality pretty much. I took the thread to mean just being healthy enough to compete. The hip problems and pain which she had been in for a good 5 years were never going to completely be gone, until she stopped competing anyway. I wonder if she still has these today in her regular life.
     
  6. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    This whole hypothetical is suspending reality, though. I mean the word "healthy" could be taken in so many ways.
     
  7. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    True, and probably explains the wildly varied poll results. I dont think I have seen a poll like this where gold and out of the medals both have such a large sum of votes. It is not like the ladies event in Turin ended up super tight in the end either.
     
  8. iarispiralllyof

    iarispiralllyof Active Member

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    Based on reports after the fact, her hip was literally coming apart. It was due to years of misdiagnoses and surgeries that didn't fix the problem.

    After 2006, she claims to have had surgery that did fix the problem and resulted in her being able to skate pain-free for the first time in years. I doubt she was as "good as new", and again she was aging, but Kwan even now is a health nut and probably would have had some decent years left after the surgery had she chosen to continue. I'm not saying she would've been at her peak 20 year old form but she would've at the very least been able to adjust to IJS better. She's not like many skaters who fall out of shape when not competing. She was nailing those triple toes and double axels in Yuna's shows after years of absence
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2014
  9. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Well-Known Member

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    It was really disconcerting to hear Kwan talking about how when she was skating in the later years she could feel the internal bones of her hips moving around. The thought of bones moving in an unnatural manner within the pelvis is incredibly scary.

    Kwan also said that when she was training for a potential comeback in 2010 that she had all her triples including Lutz back and consistent. Pretty impressive feat post-surgery and after being retired 3-4 years! This was months before Yuna's shows iirc.
     
  10. all_empty

    all_empty Well-Known Member

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    I'll take a stab at the original poster's question.

    Had Kwan skated clean and everyone else skated the way they did, I think she would've gotten the silver medal.

    Kwan was never a COP skater. She was never going to be a COP skater. And this is coming from a fan.

    Programs circa 2006 were jam packed: 7 jumping passes, 4 spins, a spiral sequence and a footwork sequence. It was also the first season to award level 4.

    Towards the end of her career, Kwan's free skates were mostly stroking between jumps and a strong footwork section to leave a good final impression (ala Miki Ando).

    The level features she was capable of -- reverse spins, multiple changes of foot, all three basic positions on both feet, changes of edge -- all chewed up valuable time. There's a reason why all of Arakawa's spins were back change edge camels with layovers and catchfoot positions. She could rack up levels quickly and easily. Kwan couldn't.

    Of course, we'll never know having never seen Kwan's free skate. I assume her jump layout would've been two 3Lz, two 3F, one 3S and one 3T (which she attempted at 2005 Worlds). Perhaps two 3T instead of two 3F. I would expect she would get mostly levels 2 and 3 on her spins.

    She could get a sentimental PCS boost in her final Olympics, but Shizuka's spins over the course of two programs would probably give her the edge.

    I was going to put this in the retired skaters thread, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kwan had her triples (though I doubt the 3Lo) a few years after being retired. Skaters who have sound technique on their jumps (Biellman, Kwan, Rochette) often retain their jumps.
     
  11. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    All these stories makes me sad. She really wanted Olympic gold badly.:(
     
  12. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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    At a minimum, healthy would mean no hip problems or other injuries and in peak physical condition for someone at her age, which I believe was 25. If this were the case and she skated clean with 6 triples, there is no way she wouldn't have won gold with the way others skated. As I recall, the comments by the USFSA officials who saw her test skate were that she could win the gold medal, so her programs must have been constructed to conform with the COP rules in place at the time.
     
  13. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Good Analysis.

    1. Clean Kwan / Slute and Cohen with problems in the LP - Kwan wins silver
    2. Clean Kwan / clean Slute and clean Cohen - Kwan 4th.

    I do think Kwan would've finished 4th regardless, though. Suguri was clean IIRC and Suguri's scores were around Kwan's '05 scores when Kwan skated a flawed LP and a CoP-unfriendly SP. Maybe Suguri's were a little higher in total, but I bet Kwan still would've skated a little bit smarter in '06 then '05 and even if she wasn't at her peak anymore, Kwan would've found a way to pick up a point or two more, and at least finish ahead of Suguri for pewter.

    I think another interesting supposition is after '04 and '05, would Kwan have been relegated to #2 American behind Cohen? It was obvious by '06 that mostly due to IJS, Cohen was the #1 American internationally. So, would Kwan competing at '06 Nationals have been dumped just a little? Cohen was pretty good at Nationals, and just had the silly step outs on the 3-3 sequence in the LP, but Kwan was definitely beloved nationally.

    Also, another probable outcome on skating generally w/ Kwan competing would've been the fact that Emily Hughes's career would've been non-existent. It turns out Hughes's career highlight was Torino. She would've had no momentum in the eyes of the judges at '07 Worlds and well, we know what happened to her career after that.
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2014
  14. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. It is good to hear she is in good health today. I wonder if she should have had the surgery sooner, but maybe she feared the end of her career. It sounds like it turns out it would have helped the post surgery part of her career if she had it, but there was probably no way of knowing that ahead of time.
     
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    The funny thing is if you could take the best few aspects of weaker Hughes' skating (spring on her jumps, true lutz, posture, energy and projection) and pasted them on the better Hughes, the better Hughes woud have been a much better skater than she was.
     
  16. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting
     
  17. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    She competed 4 times in 2004-2005 and only did 6 triples once and it was a cheesefest. She deliver 6 triples only once in 5 events in 2003-2004, again counting her cheesefest outings as that was where her only 6 triple program of her last full season came. Maybe she could still do it, but it was no longer the norm for her, and those only two times she did she wasnt even trying to skate a COP program which makes those triples harder (and unless she was trying super hard to skate a very COP program against Arakawa, Cohen, and Slutskaya who had all had carefully COP whored programs forget the OGM even if she did 6 triples, so she would have to pull both off together).

    Obviously to others there is more than a little doubt as that only 30% think she would have won the OGM even skating cleanly with 6 triples shows. Her scores at the 2005 worlds which translated to 2006 Olympics would leave her atleast a good point 8 points from the OGM even had she done 2 clean programs with a 6 triple LP also leave little doubt. It is basically a guessing game to how much she would have improved as an IJS in just a year, and obviously by the scores alot was required, and as others have pointed out the judging was in fact tougher at the 2006 Games than 2005 worlds as well. Maybe to you there is little doubt.
     
  18. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    As for what the testers said they said she looked great only 2 weeks before she was still clearly badly injured and nowhere near being able to skate at the Games, never mind win gold. So what they say has to be taken with a grain of salt. It was clear they werent being remotedly truthful as there is no way in hell she looked great, and was doing all these brand new super advanced non jump elements, just shortly before looking like a wounded duck who couldnt skate without pain at practices at the Games. I am surprised they didnt throw in the quadruple jumps and triple axels she must have done at this closed monitoring session too.

    They said what they did only to justify sending her to the Games ahead of ridiculously overhyped/shouldnt have even placed highly enough at Nationals to go as the alternate/Emily Hughes, without any controversy. Given the last name Hughes you know NBC was looking to invent any controversy over Kwan's inclusion if given half a chance, so they wisely gave them none.
     
  19. iarispiralllyof

    iarispiralllyof Active Member

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    For many skaters, managing to land all 6 triples in a program just once a season would still be considered a strong showing (and she managed this while she was injured), and it's notable that at 2 of her other showings that year she managed 5 clean triples with only one mistake each (a popped/doubled jump, not even a fall). At worlds she landed 5 triples but 1 was double footed. Considering this, it's not exactly reaching for the stars that people might envision the possibility that a healthy Kwan could have managed 6 triples in Torino..and after all that is the premise in the original post.

    Actually, Kwan reinjured herself during practices at Torino which is what ultimately led her to withdraw (groin injury). As for the nagging hip injury, she just intended to skate through it as she had the past few years.

    Also, it wasn't the Olympic testers who were trying to publicize falsities to the press, it was 2 journalists not associated with the USFSA who were invited to the test skate and reported on her skate as well as the comments of the testers. Actually, even though it was acknowledged that Kwan upped levels on some elements and/or had the ability to, it was hardly unrealistic meaningless praise, as the journalists also mentioned how even at the test skate testers were still giving Kwan tips on how she should do this or that to maximize a certain spin level (and how she followed suit, proving that she was able). That meant that even at the test skate Kwan still didn't have a completely firm grasp on how she could maximize her abilities under COP. The journalists also gave particular praise to the footwork section and final spin combination.
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2014
  20. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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  21. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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    Yes. In fact,she reinjured herself at the very first practice session on a hard fall. So no one saw her skating around at practices in pain.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2014
  22. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Well-Known Member

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    The important question isn't whether or not she would have won gold with 6 triples in Torino, but rather it is whether or not she would put her tights over the top of her boots in Torino (like at 2005 worlds) :lol:

    I MUCH preferred her regular look to the one she presented at 2005 worlds, and truly hope that in my Kwan Torino dream skate she had regular tights.
     
  23. DreamSkates

    DreamSkates Active Member

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    I would say she could have contended for gold - she was smart and knew how to arrange her programs for a win. But at this point, does it matter? So I didn't vote. But since this thread is about the Kwan, I had to read it.
     
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  24. AndyWarhol

    AndyWarhol Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Classic Kwan tights only.
     
  25. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    I never noticed a change in the Kwan tights and skating tights are a topic near and dear to my heart. There is no way Kwan pulled her tights over the boots and I didn't notice. :eek: Did she? I have to look for pictures. Horrors.
     
  26. AndyWarhol

    AndyWarhol Well-Known Member

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    She pulled them over the ankles, à la novice skater.

    Edited: http://www.bu.edu/today/2005/agganis-lands-figure-skating-showcase/ Brace yourself IceAlisa!
     
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  27. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    I would say 4th or lower because she did not have much experience under IJS.
     
  28. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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  29. skatingfan5

    skatingfan5 Well-Known Member

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    That was a question many of us Kwan fans asked back in 2005. The only reason I myself could think of was perhaps those tights were heavier weight and somehow provided more comfort/support to her injured hip. I have no way of knowing, but I thought that perhaps she was wearing two pairs of tights, since I didn't think she would wear her skates barefooted. It definitely was a departure from her normal lovely look.

    ETA: She didn't wear the over the ankle tights at Nationals in 2005, just at the World Championships, iirc. They definitely were an aberration.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2014
  30. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    The flaw in only using Kwan in 2005 as a reference points is

    1. Kwan lost a lot of points to mistakes and even more points on lost levels at 2005 Worlds. I believe she had Tarasova (and some others?) to check out her levels in 2006 (easy things like holding her spirals longer or holding her spin for one more rev would be sufficient).

    2. Her PCS was lower in 2005 due to that rotten Bolero program. From all reports in summer of 2005, her Bells program was very promising.

    3. The ISU introduced level 4 to spins, steps and spirals in the 2006 season and a lot more clarity to the features. There is no reason to think Kwan would still be stuck at level 1s. Back in the old days, I did a synopsis of level 4 spins that she could do based on features she had done in the past. The only exception was the required layback in the short which would still be level 3.

    4. If "healthy and clean" extends to the season too, she would receive good feedback on her programs throughout the season and build momentum going into Turin on PCS. People keep forgetting 2005 Worlds was her first and only COP competition and she was too much of a competitor not to learn from her mistakes.