How could healthy and clean Kwan have done in Turin

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by KimGOAT, Apr 15, 2014.

?

How could healthy 6 triple Kwan do do in Turin

  1. gold

    64 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. silver

    61 vote(s)
    31.8%
  3. bronze

    34 vote(s)
    17.7%
  4. 4th or lower

    33 vote(s)
    17.2%
  1. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    87
    I dont think Kwan's WD in 2006 affected anyone. She was never really a favorite that year, and it is not like her injury incurred at the Games. It was obvious even to a blind man she had shown up at the Games injured, and probably shouldnt have been there to begin with, but badly wanted to skate in a final Olympics and try one last time for the elusive gold. So the fear of injury wouldnt have popped up beyond normal from her either IMO.

    I think for Slutskaya and Cohen it was more a now or never, and both knowing what the Olympic Gold might mean to their career. Irina knew an Olympic Gold might elevate her above Kwan as the best skater of their era. It would also make her a hero for life in Russia, she already was to an extent, but she could probably get anything she wanted forever if she won Russia's first OGM after all she had already done for them. For Sasha an Olympic Gold would make her a legend in U.S skating (I know Sarah Hughes, and to a lesser degree Lipinski are not, but Sasha is different than they are in that her skills were beloved and praised for years but without the major title to justify her being a star) and star for life, and also make her career a success rather than the dissapointment it had been to many people by then. Both skaters knew they werent going to get another real shot at the OGM. Yeah Sasha was 21, but she never really loved to compete like Michelle and Irina. I am sure she knew she wasnt ever going to 2010, and even if she did Asada and Kim were already setting the skating world on fire doing jumps the top seniors were hardly ever attempting, so the writing was on the wall as far as any 2010 OGM prospects.
     
  2. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    87
    Well from 2000-2002 it generally was. Irina typically did harder jumps (combination jump, combination spin, layback spin) and so her elements base mark was always higher than Michelle that period, even when both were very clean.

    As for Skate Canada Irina did a double-double. The judges typically prefer you attempting a triple lutz and falling on it than doing a double lutz, as Irina's short program marks in Nagano show.

    Here are their other short programs vs each other the past 2 seasons:

    Skate Canada 2000- both were completely clean. Irina won 6 judges to 1 for Michelle. I thought Michelle was undermarked, especialy in presentation, as I loved her Rush program. I remember being a bit mad at the judges as I blamed them for her dropping it, although I liked her East of Eden SP too.

    Grand Prix final 2000/2001- both were completely clean. Irina won 6 judges to 1. By the marks, Maria would have been 1st or 2nd in the short program too had she landed her triple flip (but her clean short in SLC was 5th behind Americans Cohen and Hughes).

    Worlds 2001- Kwan's triple lutz looked close to being two footed but most believe it wasnt. Irina had a clean and excellent short. Irina won the short program 7 judges to 2. Michelle's elements marks were lower than SLC, despite that it looked like a better performance.

    Goodwill Games 2001- Both had very clean short programs. Irina won 8 judges to 1 I believe.

    Grand Prix final 2001/2002- Michelle had a short program similar to SLC, clean on paper, but with one iffy landing (this time the triple lutz combo, just as in SLC her iffy jump was the triple flip). She finished 3rd in the short behind Maria who also had a clean/slightly shaky skate on a 4-3 split. Irina won the short easily with all 7 first place votes, much higher than the other two.

    So as you can see the scoring in SLC was not consistent with past outings, and Irina had in fact several times easily beaten even a very clean Michelle in the SP, and it was often not close. Yet in SLC she was behind a not so clean Michelle in the short. How Maria was scored for her past short programs which always seemed to indicate high scoring potential in the short, to her very low scores and placement in SLC for her clean short, was also not consistent (minus the 2001 worlds where she didnt skate in the final flight with all the other top skater and was super slow and measured). At worlds a month later Irina skated the same short program and received mostly 5.9s on both sets, and two 6.0s (I did not agree at all with the two 6.0s for presentation, would have given them for technical merit instad).
     
  3. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    10,110
    I don't know if I would say Irina did a harder combo spin and layback (after Kwan got her 2001 variation). Sure Kwan couldn't do a Biellman and Irina's combo spin was hard. However, Irina couldn't do a Y-spin either. Irina does have great spring to her jumps and a harder combo. However, she front loaded her SPs by doing her jumps as the first three elements. Kwan when clean would tend to have better run-out and landing positions on her jumps.

    At the time, I remember feeling like Irina was being set up by the judges to be a world champion. IMO, I didn't mind Kwan beating Slutskaya in the SLC SP because I felt there were times where Irina was gifted prior to SLC just because she had favor and kept having favor because she failed to win Worlds both in 2000 and 2001. Sometimes, it takes a skater finally winning something for the judges to start tempering their marks. Maybe Sasha Cohen benefitted from not winning because the judges would try harder to get her a title. Who knows? I remember thinking that period that Irina would always win the SP because it was the technical program, but if both were clean then Kwan would win the LP because the presentation mark was the tie breaker (I was pretty naive at the time). I also thought that when pushed came to shove, the majority judges (even if slight) would have liked Kwan to get that Olympic gold medal. I remember thinking that Kwan's presentation marks from every judge in SLC showed that she was in favor again.
     
  4. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    87
    I think doing a combination spin that includes so many different positions and a Biellmann on both legs would be considered harder than almost any other. Harder than Kwan's or any of Irina's other main competitors combination spins for sure. As for the layback I assume a catchfoot is always considered more difficult given the neccessity it is given as an extra levels option for spins under IJS. Irina's layback was so fast with a great arch to the back though. Michelle's was not quite as strong, but far improved from her 99-2000 version.
     
  5. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2012
    Messages:
    659
    How did anyone see Michelle's 2006 FS? I've heard it mentioned a couple times, but I thought that a video of it hadn't surfaced and that it had only been performed on practice/monitoring.
     
  6. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

    Joined:
    May 9, 2002
    Messages:
    11,315
    Kwan had a double Y and Slutskaya had a double Biellmann. Both were difficult. More importantly, Slutskaya's positions were sometimes sloppy and rushed through. She doesn't hold them long enough, especially the camel and sit. Back in 2002, I'd say Hughes had the best combination spin because it had the best balance of speed, position and finesse. Kwan and Slutskaya had spins exactly like their skating. Kwan was deliberate but controlled, Slutskaya was powerful but sloppy.

    Slutskaya's layback was difficult because of a flexibility feature, Kwan's was difficult because of a control feature (acceleration). Overall Slutskaya's was better (i.e. would score better) but I never felt how catching foot on a layback fits into Serenade.
     
  7. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2008
    Messages:
    550
    No one has seen it as far as I know, except those who were there for the test session.
     
  8. irishcream

    irishcream New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    11
    I voted silver but only because Cohen and Slutskaya made so many mistakes, and only since I am suspending reality and pretending Kwan skated 2 clean programs with 6 triples in the long in Turin, which in reality was never going to happen even if she were there and healthy. The last time she ever did 6 triples was 2004 Nationals. I dont know if she body and stamina could even manage more than 4 or 5 triples anymore.

    Arakawa's long program score was a huge one for only 5 triples back then btw. Nobody else doing only 5 triples could have beaten her. The only ones who might have been able to beat her with only 6 are Cohen and Slutskaya.
     
  9. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2006
    Messages:
    4,282
    She skated it here at the Marshall's Cheesefest (not particularly well). As far as I know, this is the only video of her skating it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Mz-wwEVRJE
     
  10. falling_dance

    falling_dance Bravo, Patrick.

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2007
    Messages:
    23,362
    That's the 2005-2006 SP. cbd1235 was asking about the Prelude in C-sharp minor free skate.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2014
  11. skatingfan5

    skatingfan5 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2002
    Messages:
    10,773
    She did 6 triples in her Bolero program at a "cheesfest" (Campbell's Figure Skating Classic) that fall.
     
    kwanette and (deleted member) like this.
  12. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2006
    Messages:
    4,282
    Whoops! Sorry, my bad.
     
  13. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,973
    Reducing the number of jumps to 4 or 5 defeats the purpose of answering the OP which asked if she skated cleanly with 6 triples where would she place...

    Based on that scenario, had Michelle skated cleanly she would have brought the house down, regardless of what the program looked like. Tosca and Ariane weren't choreographically complex/superior but look at what she did with those. Michelle was on a different level when she nailed a program at a major event and, given her history, nailing a FS in Torino would have been one of her most epic skates ever given the circumstances she faced coming in.

    We don't have anything but the USFSA's monitoring session decision which said Michelle's program was good enough to be competitive under the system but even at her worst she was only a hair off of the podium under the scoring system. On a night where everyone else was making mistakes or skating conservatively, if Michelle skated cleanly I'm pretty sure she'd have won. The PCS may have been slightly inflated but considering she'd been out all season and was "Michelle Kwan" I do think the judges would have placed her over Shizuka.

    Plus it's not like Shizuka had been on a tear that season; she'd placed no higher than 3rd all season long including at her own nationals. And it's not like she had some epic performance in the FS in Torino either. It was a mostly clean performance (she did double a jump) amid a bunch of error-filled ones. She played it safe (smart) and won, but it's not like she tore the house down in the process...

    Had the Michelle Kwan showed up in Torino after being absent/injured all season long and nailed her FS at the Olympics, given who she was, the circumstances, and what everyone else put out that night, I think the judges would have given that gold medal to Michelle.

    Don't forget, it was the Olympics. Half of the appeal is the narrative leading up to the moment and Michelle had the perfect story of perseverance coming and would have had the underdog tag as well...and if she'd managed to do it...I just can't see Shizuka's conservative 5-triple performance beating a clean and inspired (and you know it would have been) 6-triple performance from Michelle...
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2014
  14. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    87
    Michelle short program would not have scored as high as the top 3. Probably a 63ish at best. So even winning the LP (which I am not saying she would have either) would probably not have won her the gold. She would have probably needed a score of 129-130 to pass Shizuka and I dont see her getting that except if she had 7 triples (which she definitely wouldnt have as she had not done a triple-triple in 5 years).

    I also dont know she would have brought the crowd down. Is every clean performance by Michelle inspired? 2005 Nationals was clean but wasnt inspired and in Europe would have gotten a cool reception. She isnt this huge star in Europe she is in the U.S so unless the performance was not only clean but had real gutsu, attack, and inspiration it is unlikely she would have brought the house down. Shizuka's performance which was excellent and the best of the night didnt do that. It also wasnt a very exciteable skating crowd in general. Only the Italian skaters seemed to really interest them.

    Before the Games nobody thought it was Kwan's gold to win or lose. She was the heavy underdog to some others in fact. Reading this thread it seems some Kwan fans live in a time warp and think this was still 1998 and 2002, where the perception was before the event even began if she skated cleanly she would probably win. Other than a few American jounralists who know nothing about skating at all, nobody thought that going into 2006. Kwan in 2006 wasnt anywhere near the favorite say Kim Yu Na in 2014 was and even Kim Yu Na skated cleanly and got trounced by someone not even considered, and nearly won only bronze and was nearly 4th in the LP.
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2014
  15. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,973
    I think she probably would have placed 4th in the SP. Her spins weren't as strong as the other top 3 so I do think she'd have taken a hit, but she wouldn't have been that far behind. You say no one would have topped Shizuka's score but don't forget that scoring is relative to the competition. If Michelle would have outskated her, the judges would have scored her higher. We all know it's easy to pad a score in the right places to keep a skater in the mix. Michelle Kwan bonus + underdog bonus + most triples bonus + clean skating bonus = higher score, especially if she'd skated after Shizuka.

    FYI, Michelle's 2005 nationals performance was not clean; she popped a jump.

    If Michelle had beat the odds and delivered her program well in Torino, maybe it wouldn't have blown the roof off of the building but she'd have generated more energy and excitement than Shizuka did in her program and we all know delivery of a program does affect the scores. Shizuka was always and introverted skater; she didn't skate with a lot of emotion or excitement. Michelle was the opposite.

    Re: her popularity, you're using present tense is but I'm talking about past tense was...and back then even overseas, people knew who Michelle was. She might not have had the uber-fandom that she had in the States but she was well-known. No she was not at her pre-2002 self but it's not like anyone else was all that great that night either. Michelle would have been a major underdog but still a threat and a hopeful favorite going into the competition.

    No one thought Michelle would win in Torino...it was a very long shot b/c of the supposed technical superiority of skaters like Irina and Shizuka and b/c of the spins/components of Sasha. No one had a great skate that night. Michelle was not the odds-on favorite to win...but with everyone else faltering and Michelle (the long shot) skating cleanly, given the sub par skating from everyone else, I think Michelle's chances of winning would have been great.
     
  16. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    87
    Compared to Shizuka and Irina, Michelle would score lower on both jumps and spins, and probably PCS (considering her program to the same music clearly wasnt as good as Irina's unless she improved it a ton from the time I saw it). Compared to Sasha she would score lower on spins, footwork, spiral, and PCS. So I think she would be more than say just a point behind after the short. Her score would have been closer to Fumie's than the top 3.

    Like I said not every Michelle Kwan performance ever done cleanly is inspired and magical. I know some of her fans believe that, but this isnt true of any skater. Especialy late in her career where she had already stripped down her choreography, spins, speed, and overall skating due to her physical state and age. As well not all of the world also was as captivated by her story of Olympic gold as the U.S was. In Italy where figure skating isnt even one of the big sports of the winter olympics (that is obvious by the turnouts and audience receptions to skating vs some of the other sports at those games), I doubt hardly anyone even cared at all.

    As for clean I thought a doubled jump was still considered a clean skate. After all everyone acts confounded Kerrigan didnt in the 94 Olympics with her clean skate, and people call Shizuka's Turin Olympic free skate clean despite the doubled triple loop.
     
  17. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2012
    Messages:
    659
    I can't believe you're pointing to pretty much the only clean Michelle performance (it wasn't even clean by her standards, she doubled a jump and was angry with being off the music) as evidence that not all her clean performances are inspired. Legitimately every other one was! I can't think of a single one. I would also say Bolero had inspiration... She was also visibly injured at 2005 Nationals. Despite that, her SP was unbelievable and one of THE most inspired she's done.

    Judges would have rewarded Kwan if she was clean in Torino. When did everyone start looking at Shizuka as a force in Torino who was bound to win? She put herself in the running with a strong short, and she only won the title due to lack of mistakes among a bad Cohen and Slutskaya. Had she had mistakes her score would have dropped off like a rock. The judges were begging for something relatively clean. Arakawa's FS in Torino is also IMO less inspired than any cleanish Kwan FS. Similar to Bolero in 2005 Nat's.
     
  18. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    91
    Silver if she was lucky. I was going to pick 3rd or 4th but then I saw that Cohen was 8 points back of Shizuka, so maybe a clean Kwan with 6 triples in the LP could have barely eked in for silver. She never was going to skate cleanly with 6 triples in the LP though so it doesnt even matter really.
     
  19. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    91
    The whole Olympic was a farce anyway since Asada and Kim werent there. How can you give out Olympic medals and call someone an Olympic Champion when the 2 best skaters on the planet arent even on the ice. Shizuka since just give her Oly gold to Mao. Mao beat her all 4 times they met that year and would have kicked her ass. That must be why she bowed her head during the medal ceremony, in shame she was wearing Mao's gold.
     
    AndyWarhol and (deleted member) like this.
  20. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,973
    Well, I suppose everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
     
  21. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    91
    You dont agree with me that Shizuka should feel ashamed winning those Olympics without young Mao? Young Mao had been kicking her ass all year. They werent even in the same league. Mao is one of the best skaters ever and fully deserves and OGM. She didnt get it in 2010 due to a zoning Kim, and in 2014 due to the farcial million dollar fixed win of Adelina Fraudnitkova, but in 2006 it should have been hers and wasnt due to some stupid age rule which has already been changed.
     
  22. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,973
    Oh sweety, no. I wasn't responding to your post...I was referring to the other poster I was having a conversation with.

    I have no interest in your rant about Shizuka giving Mao her medal. ;)
     
  23. skatingfan5

    skatingfan5 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2002
    Messages:
    10,773
    WTF?!?! Since when should any skater feel "ashamed" for beating the competitors who were at the event? Because there were others who had performed better during the season but were ineligible to compete there? I don't know whether to :rolleyes: or :rofl: over that idea. Talk about "farcical." Mao was clearly at a peak in 2006, but there wasn't any guarantee of how she would perform in Turin even if she had been there.
     
  24. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    91
    The Olympic gold is the prize for the BEST skater in the world at the time. Was that Irina Slutskaya? No (although it was before queen Mao ended her almost 2 year run at dominance with a thud at the grand prix final) Was that Splatta Cohen? No. Was that so called Olympic Champion Shizuka? No. Or for a real laugh was that (by then) Michelle Kwan. No that person was Mao Asada. So the Olympic gold was for her. The person who the Olympic gold was for was not even allowed to compete to take her prize. How foolish. Made the ISU look like idiots though.
     
  25. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    91
    By the way you can check the record. It is a fact. Shizuka never beat Mao in head to head competition ever. Even to young Mao she was her bitch.
     
  26. clairecloutier

    clairecloutier Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2013
    Messages:
    911
    Rules are rules . . . Mao was never going to be in Torino, just like Radionova was never going to be in Sochi. It is what it is. I was a huge Mao fan from the beginning too, and I loved her in 2005-2006. But she wasn't old enough to compete, according to the rules, and that's that. What use is it to argue over it now?
     
  27. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    91
    Radianova was never a factor in Sochi though. So nobody cares about her. She wouldnt have made the team anyway, that was always Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya. So it wouldnt matter if she were eligible.

    Mao was unquestionably the best skater in the world in 2006. Nobody denies it. And she was not at the Games to accept her prize. It looks even worse now that she still doesnt have an OGM. One of the best skaters ever, and not an OGM. Such a shame.
     
  28. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    10,110
    I'm shedding a single tear for Mao and Kim.
     
  29. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,973
    The Olympic gold goes to the person who wins it on that night...it rarely goes to the person who is actually the best skater in the world.

    I do think Mao could have competed in Torino and would have had an excellent shot at winning, especially given how sub par the top 3 were in that event. However, rules are rules. She was too young so she could not go.

    An OGM is not the be all-end all of a career. Even if Mao never wins that medal it will not diminish what she's accomplished. She'll be part of a very decorated list of skaters who are legends w/o it, which is more impressive if you really think about it.

    "Shaming" Shizuka for winning a competition Mao wasn't even a part of isn't fair or even logical.
     
  30. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    91
    The Olympic gold does usually go to the best in the world:

    1976- Hamill
    1980- Poetzsch
    1984- Witt
    1988- Witt
    1992- Yamaguchi
    1994- Baiul
    1998- Lipinski
    2010- Kim

    So discounting Sochi which wasnt even a competition but an exhibition, 8 out of 10 times the Olympic gold went to the best skater in the world at the time. The only one some might question is Tara in 98, but I would say she was the best since most of the big events in 97 and 98 she was the champion of. 97 worlds, both grand prix finals, 98 Olympics, to me that is the best. Sometimes the judges even arguably held up the best who maybe wasnt the best that night- Witt 88, Baiul 94, since they know the best skater should win the Olympics, which is further proof the Olympic gold is destined for the best.

    1 of the only 2 times the Olympic gold didnt go to the best of those 10 was when the best skater wasnt allowed to show up to take her prize. If she couldnt skate, she should have atleast been allowed to show up and be awarded her gold medal.