How could healthy and clean Kwan have done in Turin

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by KimGOAT, Apr 15, 2014.

How could healthy 6 triple Kwan do do in Turin

  1. gold

    64 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. silver

    61 vote(s)
    31.8%
  3. bronze

    34 vote(s)
    17.7%
  4. 4th or lower

    33 vote(s)
    17.2%
  1. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    I wouldnt see a gold medal for sure. I saw her short program at some USFSA event that season. It was to the same music, almost the same cuts, as Slutskaya's short. Unless she did something drastic with it before the Games it was clearly inferior to Slutskaya's version. So best I could see her scoring in the short with a clean skate would be something around a 63, which is still higher than she managed at worlds the previous year. Then she would need a 130 or very close to it long program to surpass Shizuka, and even if she had improved greatly under IJS in a year I still dont see her scoring that high with only 6 triples.

    I cant see her skating cleanly and losing to Suguri who didnt even skate cleanly, and when I am sure Kwan would have improved under IJS since the 2005 worlds.

    So the question comes to placements 2nd to 4th and where she would have slotted in. I am surprised bronze has so many votes since Cohen and Slutskaya ended up virtually tied, making bronze almost impossible. It seems she would either have to finish 2nd or 4th. Bronze wouldnt be a real option. Then again with Kwan in the competition along with Kwan, Irina's gross long program performance with total lack of polish and line, in addition to the glaring mistakes, might have looked more evident and lowered her score further.
     
  2. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8


    Irina was screwed out of the Olympic gold twice, in both 2002 and 2006, in the short program. I am not a fan of her skating but she clearly should have won the short on both occasions, and even if you could make a case for her being only 2nd she was even barely placed ahead of a significantly inferior performance (Cohen in 02, Arakawa in 06) behind her too. That affected her mentally, and is probably why she did a bad long program and didnt win both times. Sotnikova's undeserved Olympic gold was just in a way, as it was Russia's revenge for the two Olympic golds they robbed Irina of in the short program years past.
     
  3. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    7,134
    614
    113
    Are you suggesting that Kwan in this scenario would've been competing on the GP circuit?
     
  4. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

    31,178
    4,413
    113
  5. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Well-Known Member

    753
    280
    63
    I find it hard to believe that some think clean Kwan would have come any less than 2nd. If she was clean, with or without spin levels (come on, they would have cost her what, 3-4 points total across both programs if she didn't have upgraded spins?) she would have totally won it all, or at very least been a close 2nd. The judges would have totally rewarded her on GOE and PCS. And she'd have kickass spins and spirals with all the levels she needed there. More than enough to make up for the small spin deficit.

    Kwan sucked in 2005 and was very very far from clean and still placed only a hair off the podium. Let's be honest she would have been fine in Torino.
     
  6. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    Eliminating the qualifying round which was barely worth any points anyway (and yeah I know she lost the bronze to Kostner by the qualifying round but who cares when either way it is basically a tie for bronze in a messy event, a chasm behind gold and silver, and Kostner was no factor in Turin anyway), Kwan was not very very far from clean at the 2005 worlds. She had a clean short, and one fall and one two footed landing in her otherwise clean long. Very very far from clean are what Arakawa, Suguri, Ando, Rochette, basically everyone except Slutskaya, Cohen, Kostner, and Kwan did at those 2005 worlds, which is why Kwan finished in the top 4.

    Kickass spins? When did Kwan ever have those, even under 6.0 thinking. On a good day she had adequate spins. Who knows what would happen in a year, but the judges were going crazy for her on either GOE or PCS at the 2005 worlds relative to her competitors. Shizuka with a miserable free skate with about 1 clean jump got almost the same PCS as her. That was also doing some boring as heck Romeo and Juliet program wearing some ugly funeral dress, as opposed to her stunning Turandot program. Slutskaya had much higher PCS in the short program when she missed 2 elements and Kwan was clean.
     
  7. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    Speaking of Shizuka I am surprised there is not any thread up about her recently announced pregnancy yet. I searched Great Skate Debate and I see nothing.
     
  8. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Well-Known Member

    753
    280
    63
    YIKES I 100% meant kickass steps and spirals. Certainly not spins :p oops.

    Kwan scored 114 for the FS. If she'd landed the sal, that would add an extra 4.5 points approx. If she hadn't two footed then an extra 2 points. Plus her 3-jump combo was shaky so some GOE lost there.

    That alone takes her up to 120.5 plus everyone knows that clean Kwan (or anyone) gets a big PCS boost because mistakes seriously damage the effect of a program. This has always happened under IJS, nothing new there. That program would easily score a minimum of 123 if clean (that's conservative), but hard to tell. It could be way more for PCS ala Slutskaya in 2005. Kwan definitely could throw down a program with that performance level and emotional impact, she did it dozens of times previously. Now compare that with Sasha's 116 and Arakawa's 125 in Torino. It certainly gets Kwan up there.

    That is just with silly things like a Camel Spin level 1 for 1.2 points (like come on Michelle) and low levels. In a year I'm positive she'd have been able to do a little better on the spins.
     
  9. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

    618
    161
    43
    Irina wasn't robbed at either Olympics. She controlled her own destiny in 2002. She needed to do a triple-triple after Sarah Hughes received her big score and Michelle fell and she didn't. In 2006, her short program wasn't that special. Both Sasha and Shizuka were better artistically for whatever that is worth under COP. They had excellent spins and spirals and their jump difficulty was certainly equal to Irina's. I think she was scored fairly--she deserved the high score she got and so did the others. In the long program, she skated very poorly and was lucky to be on the podium, in my opinion. If she had won gold on the basis of a lead in the short program after that disaster, she would be the one with undeserved Olympic gold.
     
  10. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    First off there are many who think Irina should have won the 2002 Olympics. There are some who think Kwan should have as well. In short there are many who think Hughes should not have. There are alot of people who still say today Hughes should have been nowhere near 4th place in the short program. One can certainly make a good case any of the other top 7 shorts were better than hers. Most people would also say Irina should have won the short program, which would have already given her the gold if the long program stayed the same. Then there are others who say Kwan deserved 2nd in the long program.

    I also disagree she needed a 3-3 in her LP in 2002 to win. Had she done a clean smooth 6 triple LP like at worlds she would have beaten Hughes in the LP and won the gold very easily. As it was she almost had it, one judge gave Hughes 5.7, 5.8 and Irina 5.8, 5.7, and Irina lost out on the tiebreaker. Just one 5.8 for presentation from that judges would have given it to Irina.

    As for the 2006 Olympic SP, Shizuka's short program was weaker than Irina's and Sasha's both technically and artistically. Her jumps were probably better than Sasha's but weaker than Irina's in that particular performance. Her spins were weaker than both. Her footwork and spirals were good. The overall program was flat, had very little choreography, no real musical interpretation at all, and was just dull. I am talking about the short program, not the long program where the comparisions between the three would be very different, but in no way did Shizuka deserve a virtual tie with the other two in the short. Practically everyone said the day after the short program Shizuka got a huge gift, but forgot all about it after the long program, but I didnt forget.
     
  11. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

    10,285
    2,203
    113
    I remember Cohen's, Slutskaya's, and Suguri's SPs very well. I do not remember Shizuka's at all. I do remember it was just a shortened version of her flat LP she had all season before she smartly changed her routine to Turandot where the music did most of the work in selling that routine.

    Shizuka did have great skating qualities (like speed, skating skills, spins and spirals that could compete against Sasha and Irina in levels and GOE). I think her being able to match Sasha and Irina's elements is what got her the tie. They don't care about performance quality. Irina had little-to-no musical interpretation going on and really lost whatever finesse she had on her elements by that point in her career, and Sasha's skating was a bit smaller and she had a double axel that almost went badly. That could explain the closeness in scores.
     
  12. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    Well dont you think that in itself is telling, LOL!
     
  13. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

    1,583
    201
    63
    It always makes me laugh when someone brings up Hughes' "controversial" fourth place in the short. I remember thinking her program sucked and feeling frustrated because no one at the event or online was agreeing with me. There were even a few newspapers (probably NY-based) that thought she was scored harshly and Hughes herself thought she was. Then, boom, Hughes wins the whole thing and then her short program becomes controversial. :rofl:
     
    kwanette and (deleted member) like this.
  14. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    If Hughes thought her short program in SLC was undermarked then she is delusional. Actually I do remember her comments now, saying she deserved 5.8s and 5.9s, and I remember thinking at the time someone needs to slap that girl aside the face just for saying that. :lol: If you live in the U.S it is quite unlikely a newspaper would say she was overmarked in the short. It isnt the American nature to ever refer to themselves as overmarked or being gifted of something. On a forum like this there were probably many saying she was though.

    I dont think Hughes was really overmarked in the short. Her scores were about right and reflected her rather ordinary performance. The scores of many others were just too low, resulting in her too high of a placing.
     
    kwanette and (deleted member) like this.
  15. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    Back on Shizuka and her SP in Turin it is worth noting many felt Shizuka was held up and gifted in the SP of both major events she won. At the 2004 worlds she had mistakes in her SP and her generally lackluster SP and was placed above excellent performances by Ando, Kwan, Kostner, and Sebeysten. Her it is:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNmpjz5dH-U

    Notice the commentators reaction to her scores and placement, similar to their reaction in Turin. Now she did do a triple lutz-triple toe vs Kwan's triple-double, plus Kwan had that silly time deduction. Meanwhile her artistry and presentation is far better than Miki Ando, even though Ando did an even harder triple lutz-triple loop. So on the surface this would seem to justify her placing of 2nd solidly, even if the rest of the performance was comparably weaker. However both the triple toe of her triple lutz-triple toe and her triple flip were clearly underrotated even if this station didnt point it out as they should have. Her flying camel was very weak, did not even meet the minimum revolutions, and required a .1 or .2 deduction. All the elements other than the footwork sequence, 1 of her 3 spins, and spiral sequence were not well done in this particular performance.

    Shizuka was never an impressive short program skater. The long program and long program alone is where she earned her accolades and titles. The short program she was happy to just survive and stay in with a fighting hope.
     
  16. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Well-Known Member

    753
    280
    63
    Kwan was hosed in the 2004 SP even with the layback being iffy and a time deductions. It was a way better program than the one in 2003, and one of her best SP's ever.

    Shizuka was definitely gifted in the 2004 SP though, that was not strong whatsoever. Her camel was a few rev's less than Kwan's layback which I'm guessing she was deducted for. Kwan's scores didn't make sense.
     
    kwanette and (deleted member) like this.
  17. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    Shizuka was probably deducted for her spin, but not for the two underrotated jumps. Oh well it was 6.0 days so I guess this is expected, but I still dont think she deserved 2nd. Just like she didnt deserve her virtual tie with Slutskaya and Cohen in the 2006 Olympics I thought, although atleast that wasnt as bad now that I reflect back on the 2004 worlds as her Olympic short atleast seemed much stronger than her 2004 worlds short.

    I would have had Kwan 2nd in the worlds SP in 2004 behind Cohen.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2014
  18. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

    1,583
    201
    63
    The first mark was fine, but her second mark was really too high. Only the judge from Denmark gave Butyrskaya a higher second mark. :eek:
     
  19. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

    4,367
    916
    113
    Not true:

    The Russian judge gave Sarah a 5.5 for the second mark, giving Maria a 5.8.

    The Italian judge gave Sarah a 5.5, Maria a 5.6.

    You're right about the Danish judge, giving Sarah a 5.5, Maria a 5.8.

    The Belarussian judge tied Sarah and Maria on the second mark, but gave Maria 3rd overall, Sarah 5th.

    I suppose one can argue that Sarah was held up in the SP, but the ordinals were all over the place. She was the reigning world bronze medalist, but received nothng higher than a 4th place ordinal. Sarah's ordinals for the SP:

    6 10 4 5 5 5 5 4 4

    With those SP ordinals, I doubt there was even one judge who could have imagined Sarah winning the gold at that point.

    Maria's SP ordinals:

    8 3 6 3 6 3 4 6 6

    Suguri's SP ordinals (probably the most inexplicable):

    4 13 8 11 4 12 9 5 5

    Detailed results: http://winter-olympic-memories.com/html/results/jp_3d/19_salt_lake/19_figure/19_figure_w_ex.htm
     
  20. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

    10,285
    2,203
    113
    Thanks for the link. I remember the reaction to Kwan's SLC SP marks here as not being very favorable. However, looking at the technical merit marks themselves, I think they are fair for the most part. The only marks that were too high were the German and the Slovakian judges' marks. However, seeing as they boxed themselves in with their high scores for Cohen and Slutskaya, they had to give Kwan those high tech marks to give her a first place ordinal. I think even with the Flip not being perfect, a 5.5-5.7 tech mark for Kwan is fair, and she did sell that performance. It's telling that every judge gave her a 5.9 for presentation.
     
  21. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

    1,583
    201
    63
    Thanks, Skateboy. I don't know why I remember differently but you're right. I do think her second mark was still too high though.

    Kwan really had no business winning the short. It was a combination of home country scoring and skate order. I'm with those who think Slutskaya was robbed of the gold medal overall but who knows really if she would have skated worse if she were in the lead.
     
  22. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

    10,285
    2,203
    113
    I would have scored it as follows:

    1. Kwan (5.6/5.9) 11.5 (I'd have no problem giving Kwan a 5.8 for tech. had she done the flip as she normally did it).
    2. Slutskaya (5.8/5.6) 11.4 (Slutskaya would usually have gotten a 5.7-5.8 for presentation, but that was the flattest and most hesitant clean performance she gave of that SP, and her last combo spin was messy).
    3. Cohen (5.7/5.7) 11.4
    4. Fumie Suguri (5.7/5.6) 11.3
    5. Maria Butyrskaya (5.6/5.5) 11.1

    Then 6 could go to Hughes, Sebestyen, Fontana, or Robinson. Usually, Hughes would be up in the top 6, but she incurred a lot of little deductions for that SP and that flutz is that bad.

    I forgot that the German, Italian, and Canadian judges would have given Kwan the gold medal based on their LP placements. It was another 6-3 split that decided against Kwan.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2014
  23. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Well-Known Member

    753
    280
    63
    And this mess is why I am happy 6.0 is gone. As much as we look back on it favourably, it was not a good system haha.
     
  24. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

    4,367
    916
    113
    No problem. ;)

    I just watched the SPs of the top three, hadn't watched in a looooooong time. No question it was one of the best Oly Ladies' SPs ever.

    My pick would've been Irina. She wins for sure in the jump department (clean edges, great spring), plus she did the hardest jump combo (3Lz-2loop), spins were fast, difficult and powerful. Also, her footwork sequence was the most difficult. Spirals just average, presentation not the greatest, but not bad at all.

    I have a hard time between Sasha and Michelle for 2nd and 3rd. I remember being blown away by Sasha's SP at the time. No question she wins the spiral sequence and her presentation was gorgeous. But she had a flutz and the landing of her 2axel was not superb (although she got it done). Beautiful spins. Scott H. claims she was a bit short on a circular sequence. I didn't notice, but I'll believe him.

    Michelle skated great, too. Terrific flow and command of the ice. Spiral really good, spins perfectly fine (if not spectacular). She looks to have flutzed in the combo and the triple flip takeoff wasn't great (but kudos for getting it around). Footwork was easier than Irina's. I agree with Michelle's 5.9s for presentation. 5.5-5.6 seems about right for technical.
     
  25. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

    618
    161
    43
    Fans who complain about Irina's SP placement in 2002 are really just saying that Irina should have won by default after Sarah Hughes beat Michelle. Somewhat like Patrick Chan this year, Irina had the gold medal within her grasp but let it go with a sloppy and overwrought performance. You're right; she probably didn't need the 3-3 (though that would have clinched it). I'm sure the judges would have put her first if she had skated like she did at Worlds a month later.
     
  26. clairecloutier

    clairecloutier Well-Known Member

    1,168
    764
    113
    Having recently rewatched Arakawa's 2006 Oly SP, it really was a mediocre program for her. First of all the costume was terrible, and the whole program just wasn't very interesting. Shizuka completed the elements successfully, and that was about it. I think she came third in that segment, right?, and I would agree with that, Irina had more speed and pizzazz, and Sasha had a better program choreographically. However, Shizuka certainly rightfully won in the LP.

    As to the hypothetical "Could a clean Michelle have won?"--well, my opinion is yes, absolutely. Shizuka's SP was average and her LP was good but not great. Michelle at her best could most certainly have beaten that effort. Now the question of whether Michelle ever had any real chance of being at her best that season is another issue, and the answer to that is probably no. If it hadn't been for her hip injury--who knows what might have been.

    What I find amazing is that Michelle's career is still so actively remembered, discussed, and debated 8 years after her retirement! It's a credit to all she accomplished.
     
  27. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    Well considering giving Kwan a first place ordinal was questionable at best, having to give her a high technical merit to place her first cannot be a valid excuse for the Slovakian judge for instance giving her a 5.9 for elements just to place her 1st. That judges mark alone (needed for a 1st place ordinal for Kwan and needed for her 1st place finish in the short) is already enough to say Irina should have won the short. I agree 5.5-5.7 range for required elements for that performance is about right, but a performance worthy 5.5-5.7 in required elements would never merit beating a clean Slutskaya in the short program around then, regardless of presentation. Her average mark for required elements was also a 5.7, that is what almost every judge gave her, so she was scored above that average range; and I dont think the performance merited straight 5.9s for presentation either. The program while great didnt have the impact of 98 at all, and that was very noticeable, yet it was scored as it was the same.

    It also just looks suspicious when everywhere else even a very clean short by Michelle cant beat Irina in the short for a couple years heading into SLC, yet suddenly a shaky Michelle is scored better than a clean Irina in the short at Olympics in the U.S. Nothing like the Sochi home cooking, but still an obvious pro U.S edge. While I agreed with Cohen's 3rd place in the short it also stands out compared to how she was scored to non Americans throught the year. At Goodwill Games her clean short was behind Suguri, yet here at the Games in the United States they are 3rd and 7th, even though Fumie had a beautiful skate and Sasha didnt close out her footwork sequence and it was very noticeable. At worlds only a month later the scoring was in Fumie's favor again, even without her mistakes Sasha was behind Fumie there. At Trophee de France her clean short was 3rd behind Butyrskaya and Voltchkova. Then the questions of Sarah's SP placing at the Games. It seems the American girls all benefited in part from home location.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2014
  28. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

    88
    5
    8
    Not only placements matter under IJS though. Shizuka was placed in a virtual tie with Cohen and Slutskaya after the SP. The question at hand is if that was actually fair. I would say no, and that was probably critical to the overall event.
     
  29. attyfan

    attyfan Well-Known Member

    7,480
    812
    113
    IMO, Irina's best free skates seem to come when she is in first after the SP, whereas Michelle's best free skates seem to be when she has to come from behind. While I agree that the Oly results would have been different if Irina had been first in the SP, I don't think Irina was robbed of the gold medal overall ... I don't believe that the FS results would be the same if the SP had been scored differently.

    As far as Torino goes, though, I wonder if the other skaters would have performed differently if Kwan was healthy. I can't help think that Michelle's withdrawal had a psychological/mental/emotional effect ... by the time the ladies took the ice, they already knew that the entire event had been a splatfest, with two women (the Canadian ice dancer, and Ms. Zhang) injured. I think the withdrawal might have affected them, just because it would be more difficult to block out the risk of injury by limiting it to the "couples" disciplines.
     
  30. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

    10,285
    2,203
    113
    Kwan's average mark for a clean, inspired SP shouldn't be a 5.7. Also, considering her competition and the presentation marks they received (Irina even got 2 5.9s), Kwan definitely deserved 5.9s. Say what you will about it being weird that Kwan won the SP after losing the SP to Irina a few times, but it's not as if Kwan lost 0-9. And Kwan won the SP by 5-4 decision which is consistent with how close they always scored with one another when both skate relatively the same. So Kwan got the benefit of doubt this time. Irina got the benefit of doubt prior for reasons beyond their skating as well. Also, I remember in Skate Canada that season, where both Irina and Kwan made pretty huge errors in the SP, and there Kwan placed second and Irina fourth.