How could healthy and clean Kwan have done in Turin

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by KimGOAT, Apr 15, 2014.

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How could healthy 6 triple Kwan do do in Turin

  1. gold

    64 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. silver

    61 vote(s)
    31.8%
  3. bronze

    34 vote(s)
    17.7%
  4. 4th or lower

    33 vote(s)
    17.2%
  1. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Member

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    Had Kwan been fully healthy for the 2006 Olympics and skated a clean short and clean long with 6 triples, how would she have placed. I am guessing somewhere from 2nd to 4th given the other performances. People said before the Games she had no chance, but with Mao out due to injury, all the mistakes, if she improved her COP friendliness of programs and skated cleanly with more jumps than the others I think she could win a medal, although probably not the gold.
  2. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Mao wasn't in Torino because she was to young to compete not because of injury.
  3. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Member

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    Oh I thought she missed due to ankle injury. That is sad she couldnt compete when she was the best skater in the world that year. Couldnt she have sued?
    taf2002 and (deleted member) like this.
  4. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I'm guessing you came into skating kinda late. ;)

    There was a big broo-ha-ha about Mao not being able to compete that year. She'd actually won the GPF ahead of Irina and the rest and was the most technically capable skater that year. But even though the JSF plead their case, the ISU wouldn't budge. She was too young so she stayed home.

    No one knows how Michelle would have done. She wasn't healthy at all that year but if she could have skated a great program with 6-triples, depending on where she'd placed in the SP (probably 4th), I think a clean Kwan at the Olympics would have done enough to beat a 5-triple Shizuka and win gold.

    But, as with all hypothetical situations, we'll never know...
    kwanette and (deleted member) like this.
  5. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

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    It's also worth noting that Yu-Na Kim (aka GOAT ;)) did swept the Junior circuit that year including beating Mao by a large margin at Junior Worlds (though Mao didn't skate very well). She certainly could have been a contender based on her ability but was also too young for ISU Championships and opted to stay on the JGP rather than move up like Mao.
  6. iarispiralllyof

    iarispiralllyof Active Member

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    Didn't you make this thread 5 other times already
  7. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    Bronze or 4th ... but I wanted gold so badly for her back then :fragile:
  8. angelflies

    angelflies Member

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    With clean skates she would be 5th behind Suguri due to the heavy behind scenes politics the Japanese invested in the overscoring of Arakawa and Suguri. After all Shizuka never deserved her scores or the gold. Cohen even with her 1 fall and 1 hand down should have beaten her, since she made 5 triples, the same as shizuka, and had a way better short and wasnt doing a 100 year old program like Shizuka. Considering Slutksaya should have beaten Shizuka in the short by about 10 points she probably should have beaten her too even with her bad long performance. Suguri never should have beaten Rochette, Meissner, and Emily Hughes. So some heavy behind the scenes Japanese work was at play. The Japanese had no medal at those games yet and they sure as heck were going to make sure of atleast one, even if the 3 favorites- Arakawa, Kostner, and Cohen all went clean.
  9. angelflies

    angelflies Member

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    That Slutskaya got 65 for a short program that probably deserved more like 75 and Shizuka a 66 for a short that deserved more like 60 I already knew the fix was in, and mostly in favor of the Japanese team.
  10. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    If someone of her calibre went clean, she would probably be given high PCS to win the whole thing, just because Arakawa, Cohen and Slutskaya were all subpar.
  11. zigzig

    zigzig Member

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    Michelle's 2006 program were awful - it's a blessing in disguise no one saw them, except for the Totentanz outing at that cheezefest. Regardless, with two clean skates and upgraded spins and steps she could have contended for gold given the general crappiness of the competition (although Sasha's short program performance was definitely one for the ages).
  12. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    What do you mean by healthy? If you mean like completely healthy to the point where Kwan would be near her prime and fully conditioned for the Olympics, then Kwan would have definitely improved the level of her elements and skated with much more confidence and ease. People, I think, forget what Kwan's skating was actually like when she was at her best condition. She already had the footwork and spiral sequence to compete with the top three (even when she was out-of-shape and clearly injured, her excellent basics and line showed through in her footwork and spiral sequence in Totentaz). Although the COP rules at the time hurt Kwan because they required flexibility to gain level 4s, she could have gone the Plushenko route and figured out other ways to gain high levels (changes of edges, other positions). I also think she could have figured out a way to maximize her TES base score.

    I mean even Kwan not being close to her best and at a COP-disadvantage by not maximizing her levels the way she was actually capable of was competitive for a medal in 2005 Worlds. She needed better levels, and much more comfort on the ice to sell the routine. It makes me laugh that people think she would have been on par with Suguri if she had been healthy enough to compete on the level she was known for because Kwan's skating is on a different level compared to Suguri's.

    However, she probably would have had those Tarasova programs, and I don't know if they would have gone over so well.
  13. angelflies

    angelflies Member

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    Well at the 2005 worlds Kwan was basically at the same level as Suguri as a IJS skater. Had their short and long both been clean their point totals would have been almost identical in both. How much she would have improved as an IJS skater in just 1 year is the question.

    Anyway the event was fixed in favor of the Japanese as the blatant overscoring of Shizuka and Fumie both proves. People just pass off Shizuka's win like it is ok since she still had a cleaner long than Slutskaya and Cohen but she in no way deserved to be almost tied with them in the short program since if you watch the three programs you can see hers was average by comparision, and her long program with only the same # of clean triples as Sasha was exagerrated too even if she deserved winning the LP. Suguri never should have beaten Joannie for her boring and not even technically that strong long program.

    Slutskaya had already scored over 70 in the short program that year and everyone else was getting Olympic inflation, yet for her best short of the year at the Olympics she gets only a 66 when everyone else is cracking huge new PBs. A farce, couldnt get in the way of the pre arrange Japanese win could we. Shizuka by comparision gets a 66 for a skate that is similar to the ones she was getting 58-59 in the short for earlier in the season. When she finished her short the Eurosport commentators called it mediocre and wondered if she would even pass Meissner who was at around 59, and were left stunned by her score that almost tied Irina's much better short.

    The protocals also show once Irina doubled a jump she was already out of gold contention, even if she finished clean with 5 triples just like Shizuka. She needed a 6th to have any chance at squeeking past Shizuka's point total. Since when does the gold medal favorite have to do more to beat someone who was only 9th at worlds last year, who should have been way behind after the short anyway.
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2014
  14. TheIronLady

    TheIronLady New Member

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    She would have medaled because her CPS would have been high enough to beat Slutskaya. She could have pulled off a coup and won silver, but is there any way imaginable she could have earned enough points to win? I do not know.
  15. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    Remember she had no Biellmann position and this was the Biellmania era.
  16. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Actually lacking the Biellman would only hurt her in the required layback in the short. The other 2 in the short and 3 in the long did not require a Biellmann to attain level 4.
  17. AndyWarhol

    AndyWarhol Well-Known Member

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    I was a Kwan ├╝ber, but that skate was like Old Yella.
  18. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I think it was obvious that regardless of what Kwan could've done, the top 3 after the SP in Torino would have always been Slutskaya, Arakawa and Cohen due to scores north of 65 points. Kwan's clean SP at '05 Worlds only garnered around 61 points. But the groundwork had also been laid the previous years.

    In 2004 - Arakawa and Cohen finished ahead of Kwan while Slutskaya was coming back from a career-threatening illness
    In 2005 - Slutskaya was in the best shape of her life and a flawed Cohen still beat out a flawed Kwan on the international stage.

    Slutskaya was the favorite. Cohen was strong from Nationals and 2 world silver medals in a row, and Arakawa would surprise w/ a switch of her LP's. I think Kwan had put herself in a hole by not competing much in the '02 - '06 cycle, even if we would later find out that this wasn't really her fault, but she had been working hard to keep an injury at bay.

    Overall, I think Kwan may have medalled if you can contend that Cohen and Slutskaya would've still performed their subpar LP's and Kwan was squeaky clean. But otherwise, I think she would've simply bested Suguri for 4th.
  19. iarispiralllyof

    iarispiralllyof Active Member

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    Right, but remember that at that worlds, the difference between the top 3 sp scores was minimal at best. The only reason the others were scoring north of 65 was that they had competed in more than 1 competition and were getting more used to the system.
  20. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Who COP-prepped Kwan for 2005 Worlds? She never held her spins and spirals long enough to earn the features / levels and she was capable of harder elements too. She lost the bronze simply by not doing her combination jumps in the QR after popping them.
  21. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

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    :rofl: Yeah, the judges are the ones who were fixing things and not you with your outrageous bias. Actually, Irina scored 66.70 and Shizuka 66.03, so Irina was ahead of Shizuka after the short. And what marks (GOE and PCS) do you think Irina and Shizuka should have received to get a 15 point difference between the 2 programs, which had the same base value?
  22. angelflies

    angelflies Member

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    The 3 jumps were all better, especialy the triple lutz-double toe and triple flip. The 3 spins were all much better. Every element except the spiral sequence was better by Irina that night in fact. In the LP it was just the opposite and Shizuka's elements that day were stronge than Irina's, even the ones she did cleanly, and that was reflected in the scores, but the reverse in the short program did not happen as it should have. As for the presentation or artistry, Irina's program was perfect for her style and was skated with tons of speed, confidence, attack, energy, and great performance and interpretation of the music. The total opposite of her long program. Shizuka's was just a huge bore.

    Even if 15 points is too much there is no doubt whatsoever Shizuka was WAY way overmarked to be tied with Slutskaya and Cohen in the short. Everyone said that at the time too, but it was forgotten after the long program when Shizuka won with clearly the best performance that night, but she had no deficit to make up and this clearly was not right. I laugh outloud at anyone who says she deserved to be within a point of Cohen and Slutskaya in the short program. There is no way her performance in the short was as good as theirs.

    Like I mentioned Slutskaya had already scored over 70 for that short program earlier in the season, and her Olympic skate to it was her best all season, while everyone else was cracking new PBS and benefitting from Olympic inflation she gets docked a bunch of points. Shizuka cracks a huge all time and seasonal short program PB for an average skate. Notice how shocked the commentators are by her score:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRxOVel6Ifg
  23. annabrown

    annabrown Member

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    Bronze behind Pasha Cohen. That is if she skated a clean short and clean long with 6 triples though. I dont think she would skate clean so would probably finish 5th or 6th.
  24. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    I think Kwan would do better under later incarnations of COP than she would have under the COP that was implemented for Torino. The new versions of COP are a lot more flexible in terms of gaining levels and play better to her strengths.
  25. annabrown

    annabrown Member

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    Yeah they got rid of the stupid Biellmann fixation. There are other ways to do hard spins than just Biellmanns. The spin rules in general when IJS first came out were stupid anyway. Everyone agrees Lambiel is the best spinner in the world in his prime. Yet he was only 4th in spins points in Turin. Did you know Plushenko outscored Lambiel in spins in Turin, ROTFL! What a joke.

    The Biellmann overuse also was a dishonor to the great Denise Biellmann who did the spin so beautifully, and should only be attempted by those who can live up close to the honor and excellence she did the spin with. Even Irina doesnt do it well enough she should even be doing it any times other than her signature combination spin, and if you look at still shot photos of both Denise and Irina in the midst of the spin her exeuction and positions in it pale so badly compared to Denise. They took something magnificient and incredible by one of the greatest skaters of all time- Denise Biellmann, and turned the legendary move into someting akin to the Phelps vault in gymnastics, something you just cringe over.
  26. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Even though I hate 1 minute long footwork sequences, I would have loved to see what Kwan in her prime could have done with that and with the choreography sequence that is required now.
  27. annabrown

    annabrown Member

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    Footwork was a big strength for Kwan in her prime. It was one of the reasons she dominated short program and got the highest element marks even with only doing a triple toe so long. Only Slutskaya in her era could rival and sometimes surpass her in footwork. Maybe Suguri comes close too.
  28. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    The only time I thought Slutskaya performed better footwork was in 2002 where Kwan used her 1998 footwork. It was more of Kwan choosing to do a lesser FW sequence than her actual ability.
  29. annabrown

    annabrown Member

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    Well I am not a technical expert on footwork but commentators did mention Irina doing all her footwork on one foot often most years as being a possible edge. Both looked very intricate and well done otherwise, although Kwan's seemed to usually use a more complex pattern around the rink.
  30. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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    I don't think that's obvious at all. None of them were doing triple-triples in their short program. She lost points in '05 because of her spiral sequence (level one!) and she had to change the program from Nationals, which was judged under 6.0. If Michelle had really put her mind to constructing an IJS program, I'm sure she could have scored right up there with the top three. And under IJS, it didn't matter if she didn't, as long as she was close in points.

    The premise of the poll is that Michelle was healthy--ie, not suffering from her bad hip--and clean, with 6 triples. The OGM was won with only 5 triples. For Michelle, 5 triples was considered a failure and definitely not clean! I have no doubt that she could have won gold if she had skated like she was capable of doing, and not hindered by a hip injury that eventually required surgery. Similar injuries ended the careers of other skaters such as Alissa Czisny and Evan Lysacek.
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2014
  31. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

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    I wouldnt see a gold medal for sure. I saw her short program at some USFSA event that season. It was to the same music, almost the same cuts, as Slutskaya's short. Unless she did something drastic with it before the Games it was clearly inferior to Slutskaya's version. So best I could see her scoring in the short with a clean skate would be something around a 63, which is still higher than she managed at worlds the previous year. Then she would need a 130 or very close to it long program to surpass Shizuka, and even if she had improved greatly under IJS in a year I still dont see her scoring that high with only 6 triples.

    I cant see her skating cleanly and losing to Suguri who didnt even skate cleanly, and when I am sure Kwan would have improved under IJS since the 2005 worlds.

    So the question comes to placements 2nd to 4th and where she would have slotted in. I am surprised bronze has so many votes since Cohen and Slutskaya ended up virtually tied, making bronze almost impossible. It seems she would either have to finish 2nd or 4th. Bronze wouldnt be a real option. Then again with Kwan in the competition along with Kwan, Irina's gross long program performance with total lack of polish and line, in addition to the glaring mistakes, might have looked more evident and lowered her score further.
  32. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

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    Irina was screwed out of the Olympic gold twice, in both 2002 and 2006, in the short program. I am not a fan of her skating but she clearly should have won the short on both occasions, and even if you could make a case for her being only 2nd she was even barely placed ahead of a significantly inferior performance (Cohen in 02, Arakawa in 06) behind her too. That affected her mentally, and is probably why she did a bad long program and didnt win both times. Sotnikova's undeserved Olympic gold was just in a way, as it was Russia's revenge for the two Olympic golds they robbed Irina of in the short program years past.
  33. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Are you suggesting that Kwan in this scenario would've been competing on the GP circuit?
  34. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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  35. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    I find it hard to believe that some think clean Kwan would have come any less than 2nd. If she was clean, with or without spin levels (come on, they would have cost her what, 3-4 points total across both programs if she didn't have upgraded spins?) she would have totally won it all, or at very least been a close 2nd. The judges would have totally rewarded her on GOE and PCS. And she'd have kickass spins and spirals with all the levels she needed there. More than enough to make up for the small spin deficit.

    Kwan sucked in 2005 and was very very far from clean and still placed only a hair off the podium. Let's be honest she would have been fine in Torino.
  36. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

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    Eliminating the qualifying round which was barely worth any points anyway (and yeah I know she lost the bronze to Kostner by the qualifying round but who cares when either way it is basically a tie for bronze in a messy event, a chasm behind gold and silver, and Kostner was no factor in Turin anyway), Kwan was not very very far from clean at the 2005 worlds. She had a clean short, and one fall and one two footed landing in her otherwise clean long. Very very far from clean are what Arakawa, Suguri, Ando, Rochette, basically everyone except Slutskaya, Cohen, Kostner, and Kwan did at those 2005 worlds, which is why Kwan finished in the top 4.

    Kickass spins? When did Kwan ever have those, even under 6.0 thinking. On a good day she had adequate spins. Who knows what would happen in a year, but the judges were going crazy for her on either GOE or PCS at the 2005 worlds relative to her competitors. Shizuka with a miserable free skate with about 1 clean jump got almost the same PCS as her. That was also doing some boring as heck Romeo and Juliet program wearing some ugly funeral dress, as opposed to her stunning Turandot program. Slutskaya had much higher PCS in the short program when she missed 2 elements and Kwan was clean.
  37. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

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    Speaking of Shizuka I am surprised there is not any thread up about her recently announced pregnancy yet. I searched Great Skate Debate and I see nothing.
  38. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    YIKES I 100% meant kickass steps and spirals. Certainly not spins :p oops.

    Kwan scored 114 for the FS. If she'd landed the sal, that would add an extra 4.5 points approx. If she hadn't two footed then an extra 2 points. Plus her 3-jump combo was shaky so some GOE lost there.

    That alone takes her up to 120.5 plus everyone knows that clean Kwan (or anyone) gets a big PCS boost because mistakes seriously damage the effect of a program. This has always happened under IJS, nothing new there. That program would easily score a minimum of 123 if clean (that's conservative), but hard to tell. It could be way more for PCS ala Slutskaya in 2005. Kwan definitely could throw down a program with that performance level and emotional impact, she did it dozens of times previously. Now compare that with Sasha's 116 and Arakawa's 125 in Torino. It certainly gets Kwan up there.

    That is just with silly things like a Camel Spin level 1 for 1.2 points (like come on Michelle) and low levels. In a year I'm positive she'd have been able to do a little better on the spins.
  39. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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    Irina wasn't robbed at either Olympics. She controlled her own destiny in 2002. She needed to do a triple-triple after Sarah Hughes received her big score and Michelle fell and she didn't. In 2006, her short program wasn't that special. Both Sasha and Shizuka were better artistically for whatever that is worth under COP. They had excellent spins and spirals and their jump difficulty was certainly equal to Irina's. I think she was scored fairly--she deserved the high score she got and so did the others. In the long program, she skated very poorly and was lucky to be on the podium, in my opinion. If she had won gold on the basis of a lead in the short program after that disaster, she would be the one with undeserved Olympic gold.
  40. fracturedleg

    fracturedleg Member

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    First off there are many who think Irina should have won the 2002 Olympics. There are some who think Kwan should have as well. In short there are many who think Hughes should not have. There are alot of people who still say today Hughes should have been nowhere near 4th place in the short program. One can certainly make a good case any of the other top 7 shorts were better than hers. Most people would also say Irina should have won the short program, which would have already given her the gold if the long program stayed the same. Then there are others who say Kwan deserved 2nd in the long program.

    I also disagree she needed a 3-3 in her LP in 2002 to win. Had she done a clean smooth 6 triple LP like at worlds she would have beaten Hughes in the LP and won the gold very easily. As it was she almost had it, one judge gave Hughes 5.7, 5.8 and Irina 5.8, 5.7, and Irina lost out on the tiebreaker. Just one 5.8 for presentation from that judges would have given it to Irina.

    As for the 2006 Olympic SP, Shizuka's short program was weaker than Irina's and Sasha's both technically and artistically. Her jumps were probably better than Sasha's but weaker than Irina's in that particular performance. Her spins were weaker than both. Her footwork and spirals were good. The overall program was flat, had very little choreography, no real musical interpretation at all, and was just dull. I am talking about the short program, not the long program where the comparisions between the three would be very different, but in no way did Shizuka deserve a virtual tie with the other two in the short. Practically everyone said the day after the short program Shizuka got a huge gift, but forgot all about it after the long program, but I didnt forget.