How can Russia reverse its decline in Ice Dance?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Feb 13, 2013.

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Can Russia win the 2018 Olympics in Ice Dance?

Poll closed Mar 16, 2013.
  1. Yes

    47 vote(s)
    65.3%
  2. No

    18 vote(s)
    25.0%
  3. Don't Know

    7 vote(s)
    9.7%
  1. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    It's very likely that Russia will not win an ice dancing medal in Sochi. Just like they were not close to a medal in Moscow worlds. The issues of senior dance collapse when put up against Detroit/Michigan training happens in every senior worlds and also 2010 Olympics.
     
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  2. piano18

    piano18 New Member

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    Oh Davis & White won't retire after 2014 at all, IMO.
    The 2018 podium will consist of gold for I&K, with the battle for silver and bronze between one of B&S, an up and comer from juniors, and possibly, possibly D&W (only if they stay til 2018).
     
  3. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    I think it's more like the rest of the world has caught up with Russia, than Russian ice dance going into serious decline. All they have to do is what had worked for them in the past- find young talent at an early age, and cultivate it.

    My earlier comment still holds- Russian coaches moving to the west is one of the reasons for the decline, but it is not as big a decline as it may appear; a lot has to do with the west figuring out how to win in ice dance.

    The flip side is Russia has gained a lot in the ladies field, and there is some decline in the USA ladies (an understatement?)
     
  4. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    Elena and Nikita will have a great shot post 2014
    they have many good juniors too going to seniors like Stepanova/Bukin

    the 2010 was the transition period where all the soviet born ice dancers retired
     
  5. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    A/E may have look issue but they have good quidance under Krylova
    Papadakis/Cizeron will be a huge threat next quad
     
  6. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Just like the Russian pairs.
     
  7. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    indeed back then they only had Kavaguti/Smirnov
    how much a year after made a difference now they have V/T, B/L, S/K, A/M and some very talented juniors
     
  8. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    I agree that the emigration of the Russian coaches contributed to the problem, but I disagree that it's simply a matter of the rest of the world catching up with Russia. IMO, the Russian dancers are just not as good as they were in the past. The women were generally fantastic and did not have posture issues like Bobrova, Ilinykh, and Sinitsina do. They had much better choreography and music, not crap like Ghost and randomly pasting Marton's Tosca at the end of their program. Their lifts were always elegant and smooth. The Russians were also very good at dancing in the ballroom and Latin styles, whereas IMO all of the current Russian dancers did a terrible job with the Latin SD and the only dance they seem to be decent at is a waltz, so R&T just repeat it over and over. Also, the Russian teams used to generally have excellent speed, which some teams notably do not, especially R&T and P&G.

    They do need to find young talent (which they have in abundance), and cultivate it, but something about how they are going about cultivating is clearly not working.
     
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  9. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    There could be one more factor. In the past - USSR years- the top skaters went for pairs and ice dance. Those were their glamor sports. Now a lot more talented skaters are skating singles, thus reducing the pool for pairs and ice dance. Pairs still look OK to me, but ice dance has definitely suffered. I still believe that the North Americans have figured out how to win with the current rules, while the Russians may still be a step behind (not for long though).
     
  10. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Lots of this here goes back to coaching choreography that's mentioned in the first sentence. Coaches can do choreo and cultivate talent and total depleting of top talent to the us is a big issue. Obviously all these teams if they are good would have the opportunity to move to the us and train in the us but for many they would have already been skating like 10 years and habits and loyalties established.
     
  11. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Member

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    I think Victoria Sinitsina & Ruslan Zhiganshin have the greatest potential amongst the Russian Ice Dance teams to win the 2018 Olympic title. However, they seem to have gone backwards this season. Nevertheless, they have improved as the season has progressed, and they are just finding their feet in the senior ranks. I think they will be much stronger for that next season.
     
  12. IceIceBaby

    IceIceBaby New Member

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    They would need a big name coach and a stronger federation. Ice dance is all about reputation and federation's deals.
     
  13. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    but somewhere in their careers they will be stagnant unless they leave Kustarova
    this summer is the time they leave her and go to either Zhulin, Shipilband or Krylova
     
  14. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Member

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    Sinitsina & Zhiganshin have just finished second to Monko & Khaliavin in the short dance at the Russia Cup final with a rather disappointing score of 59.62.

    I agree, a coaching change would almost certainly do them good. They are capable of producing so much more than they are at the moment.

    Sinitsina & Zhiganshin - Art on Ice 2013
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2013
  15. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    They are also getting old. Luca is gonna be 28 this year. A decade ago it would be a perfect age for a dance team to dominate, but ice dance has changed. Which I still mourn, by the way. There is nothing like maturity and elegance of 30-year-old ice dancers.

    Which is also a reason why Meryl and Charlie will most likely retire after Sochi. This, and if they win gold there, they will get to retire in glory, having achieved everything there is to achieve in the sport. I really don't know where the speculation they will last till 2018 comes from. Even thoguh I would love them to, I think it's very unlikely.
     
  16. escaflowne9282

    escaflowne9282 Well-Known Member

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    ^^^^^ THIS!!!!
     
  17. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    they are a Navka/Kostomarov 2.0 , they need better programs, I think Krylova would do wonders for them !
     
  18. piano18

    piano18 New Member

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    Should they change coaches next year...:slinkaway:? Also it won't be that hard, since they already have good technique, and Krylova would probably love to have them.

    D&W will do worlds in 2014, and probably another one next year but they won't last til 2018 (only because they won't want to be fighting for bronze). They haven't said anything about retiring, but i guess their fans want to feel something nostalgic watching them, telling themselves this is their last year of competing, bla blah blah bla :lol:.
     
  19. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    I don't see the resemblance between them and N/K.
    I do agree that they need better dances though.
     
  20. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    I think Sinitsina looks like Navka a little and has a similar slinky quality, but Navka was much better, of course.
     
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  21. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    D/w are getting 10's in pcs if they don't win in Sochi and vm retire they would be crazy to give up that level of scoring for whatever program they do! I doubt if another team would start to get close to them right away or thy would start falling dramatically in pcs down from 10. They could go backward technically though so the 10's in pcs wouldn't help them forever but they could sail through at least one season with no one close!
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2013
  22. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    You have so many coaches involved! Morozov, zhulin, kustarova, spiliband, gorshkov. I mean change all the music and programs? Lol like they can't all be coached by krylova and camerlengo.
     
  23. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    Thought I would bump this up now that Stepanova/Bukin have won junior worlds, making it four in a row for Russia. Here is a look back at the Russian JW medalists from the past 20 years (skaters who won a medal at senior worlds - not necessarily for Russia) - in bold:

    Ekaterina Svirina / Sergei Sakhnovski - 1993 gold, 1994 silver
    Olga Sharutenko / Dmitri Naumkin - 1995 gold
    Ekaterina Davydova / Roman Kostomarov - 1996 gold
    Russia Nina Ulanova / Mikhail Stifounin - 1997 gold
    Oksana Potdykova / Denis Petukhov - 1997 silver, 1998 bronze
    Natalia Romaniuta / Danil Barantsev - 1999 bronze, 2000 and 2001 gold
    Elena Khaliavina / Maxim Shabalin - 2001 bronze, 2002 silver
    Oksana Domnina / Maxim Shabalin - 2003 gold
    Elena Romanovskaya / Alexander Grachev - 2002 and 2003 bronze, 2004 gold
    Anastasia Gorshkova / Ilia Tkachenko - 2005 bronze
    Natalia Mikhailova / Arkadi Sergeev - 2006 silver
    Ekaterina Bobrova / Dmitri Soloviev - 2007 gold
    Kristina Gorshkova / Vitali Butikov - 2008 bronze
    Ekaterina Riazanova / Jonathan Guerreiro - 2009 bronze
    Elena Ilinykh / Nikita Katsalapov - 2010 gold
    Ksenia Monko / Kirill Khaliavin - 2010 bronze, 2011 gold
    Ekaterina Pushkash / Jonathan Guerreiro - 2011 silver
    Victoria Sinitsina / Ruslan Zhiganshin - 2012 gold
    Alexandra Stepanova / Ivan Bukin - 2012 silver, 2013 gold

    So, only a handful won world or Olympic medals, and B&S and I&K have Euro medals (with R&T, who medalled at JW with different partners, getting close to the podium), but the vast majority did not go on to do great things. In some ways that's to be expected because there are just so many of them, and I doubt that the non-Russians have fared so much better (from a quick glance, Delobel & Schoenfelder, Faiella, Belbin & Agosto, Virtue & Moir, Davis & White, and the Shibutanis went on to medal at senior worlds during the same period).

    What should a team like Stepanova & Bukin do to ensure that they don't get lost in the shuffle? I noticed that the ice dancers who were most successful right away in seniors made their debut at a time when there were retirements. Domnina/Shabalin turned senior in 2003 when Lobacheva/Averbukh were about to retire and Kulikova/Markov were splitting up. Ilinykh/Katsalapov turned senior in 2011 just after Dom/Shab retired and Kokhlova/Novitsky split. Are they really more talented than the other juniors or was it just luck and timing?

    Couples like Monko/Khaliavin and Sinitsina/Zhiganishin come into seniors in 4th or 5th place and it seems like they will have a hard time moving up. I don't expect I&K, B&S, or R&T to retire until 2018. It's almost like an embarrassment of riches but not really, because they have lots of solid couples who could make the top 10, but no outstanding couples who can contend for a World title (I suspect the Russian federation would trade these mid-tier teams for another Navka/Kostomarov in a heartbeat).

    Another interesting thing about these couples is that some of them just seem to fade away (Romanovskaya/Grachev, Gorshkova/Butikov, Mikhailova/Sergeev) rather than switching up partnerships (which seems more common in the US, although I won't undertake a study).

    I really want Stepanova/Bukin to make it. He has such a wonderful quality and she is so elegant. I'm wondering if they should just switch coaches right now. I realy like Svinin & Zhuk actually, but they were never able to take Kokhlova all the way a lot of people felt that their politics were lacking compared to Linichuk's for DomShab. I think they need to make a huge splash coming out of juniors in order to get noticed. S/Z won a medal on the GP but that wasn't enough. The problem is that R/T are pretty good, and more polished than these out of junior teams, but not really good enough that I think they will ever medal at Worlds, so the third spot is kind of wasted on them. These young teams should be making a run at that spot (actually for me the best team would be I/K, R/T, and S/B, but now that B/S won Euros, forget it).

    I like the fact that Stepanova/Bukin have been skating together since 2006. So when they make their senior debut they will already have 8 years together. That's almost Virtue/Moir territory! I think Bukin is a star and with his pedigree I would expect him and his beautiful partner to have the best coaching and lots of attention and success, but looking at Artur Dmitriev jr, it isn't necessarily the case....
     
  24. bmcg

    bmcg Well-Known Member

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    I think there has already been a shift. They are in position now to take over once V&M and D&W retire and I wouldn't be shocked at all if one of them win at least a bronze in Sochi. If it's B&S it will be bronze at best but if I&K actually get it together AND learn some decent lifts I think Sochi will be very interesting.
     
  25. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    If only they had paced themselves and did what you said a year or two ago, they would be in such a great position right now. :( I really feel like the judges are ready to dump P&B at any opportunity (they have always been undermarked), yet the Russians just haven't been able to step through the door.
     
  26. morqet

    morqet Active Member

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    I don't know, I feel that after Euros the judges are ready to go with I/K. They broke 100 in the FD with two level 2 elements, the PCS are huge, the GOE on every element was positive. Their lifts aren't spectacular but they still get level 4 and good GOE everytime. If they get their levels at Worlds, even just increasing those level 2s to level 3s, I think it will be very very close between them and P/B, especially with Bourzat coming back from his injury.
     
  27. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    hmmmm... I wouldn't call Dmitriev Jr. a star anyways, I think Stepanova/Bukin if they turn Senior after Sochi they will really be making a splash but will they ? they might be tired already still in the Junior circuit. They have the qualities to become Russia's Top Team along with Ilinykh/Katsalapov.

    Stepanova/Bukin reminds you of Domnina/Shabalin, especially Stepanova I'm getting Domnina flashbacks.
     
  28. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    R/G and M/S did switch around. Grachev teamed up with Platonova whose previous partner Maximishin teamed up with Mikhailova. None of them proved succesful though and I agree its a shame soo many very nice teams get lost in the shuffle all the time. The field at Russian dance is totally crowded right now but hardly any of them will make a big impact until 2017, 18 at least.
     
  29. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    That tells you so much about lifts under this judging system. :scream: Do you think I&K will pass B&S at Worlds? I am thinking they well might. I don't want to wuzrob for them with the Ghost FD, but I thought B&S were a bit overmarked in the SD at Euros, and I&K were better overall through both programs. I don't expect either to pass P&B although they are definitely getting closer.

    I was thinking they would turn senior in 2013-14, no? They already went to JGPF three times and JW twice. Maybe strategically, it would be better to wait, because the GP will be less crowded.

    I forgot all about those... shows what an impression they made on me. :lol: Platanova/Grachev were actually a very nice team, so were Rubleva/Shefer... they didn't have very interesting programs but they had some of that old school elegance.
     
  30. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    Stepanova is 17 and Bukin is 19 so they are still eligible for another year as juniors I think
    but being in juniors for three seasons they probably might not wait after 2014 Sochi ?