Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by Sylvia, Jun 3, 2013.
Can Hicks get another assignment?
Was thinking the same thing. She can withdraw from Ice Challenge and another gal from Midwesterns can go to Austria instead. Clear the field there a bit. But, it would have to happen fast!
I realize that this is pure fantasy, though.
I don't think USFS wants to grant another bye. Maybe Hicks will get another assignment, but I don't expect the MW senior ladies field to clear up. Which makes it a great competition.
I actually think the jr ladies field at MW to be even tougher, because the ladies who make it out of MW are likely to be also top 6 at nationals.
As disappointed as I am with this, I think this is the smart thing for Kaetlyn to do, we desparately need her ready for the team competition in Sochi, so if she has a couple extra weeks off that's fine, she'll get ready for December and be good to go for nats in January. I'm not shocked they decided to pull her out now. If she's not ready by nats in January then I will really worry, but she's got the rest of November and all of December now to really heal up and be good to go for nationals. I think this is more of a pre-emptive move than anything, but should be good for January. If we don't have her for team in Sochi, Canada's medal chances go out the door with it.
For what it's worth, the Ladies Top Five:
31-K. Zhang (CHN)
39-C. Zhang (USA)
Just outside are 42-Simancikova (none) and 43-Weinzierl (none)
As far as Canada's Team medal chances going out the door if Osmond doesn't skate: unless a lot of the odds are beaten, that's highly unlikely. Canada's gold medal chances may go out the door, since, all things being equal, it should be a fight between Russia and Canada for the gold, but for Canada, with V/M and Chan, to drop below the likely 4th and 5th place teams -- all things being equal, two of Japan, China, France, and Italy -- would take a lot of upsets/quali-round-quality skates from the favorites.
Based on this analysis (the link to it is in Visaliakid's post), if teams have to qualify three and can add a fourth, the ten teams will be (with guesses as to who would be on the teams):
CAN--Osmond or next Canadian woman: Lacoste/Chartrand/Daleman? (Is Seguin still doing singles)
USA--Wagner and/or Gold
RUS--Lipnitskaia and Sotnikova/Tuktamysheva/Pogorilaya (etc.)
ITA--Kostner and/or Marchei
JPN--Asada and/or Suzuki and/or Murakami
CHN--Zhang? Li? One of the young ones?
GER--Weinzierl or Hecken or ?
If a team can qualify two and add a third (the minimum), then ESP (Lafuente) replaces GBR.
I'm assuming, too, unless Chan and V/M want to do both segments, it is most likely that one Canadian Ladies skater will do both segments of the Team Event, since Pairs will likely have different SP and FS skaters if Chan or V/M skate both, as the Pairs event is right after the Team Event.
Barring upset in either direction, a healthy Osmond is likely to place above FRA, CHN (given Li's current state), GER, UKR, GBR/ESP and ITA if Marchei skates. She's less likely to place above ITA if Kostner skates (or skates full out), JPN, or USA. She's likely to place behind Lipnitskaia, unless JL succumbs to nerves, but has a good chance of beating any of the other Russian women in the SP, if they don't step up.
Lacoste should be competitive with GER, UKR, GBR/ESP and ITA if Marchei skates. Of course Lacoste doesn't have the potential upside that Osmond does -- a nervous showing by the Russian skaters or even a Kostner-of-past-Olympics performance is a target for Osmond but not likely for Lacoste -- and the other skaters are more competitive if Lacoste hits more nerves than usual, but it shouldn't be a matter of more than a few points difference in the SP, and even the last place finisher in the FS gets 6 points (compare to the winner's 10).
Of the five teams likely to be in the finals, CAN is strong in three out of four disciplines, and deep in at least Pairs and Dance. (Reynolds is behind this season.) RUS has the potential to place 1-3 in every event, if Plushenko is healthy. USA is especially strong in Dance, and the Ladies have potential, but Men and Pairs tend to fall in the lower half of the Top 12 (at Worlds). Japan is weak in Dance and Pairs. China is weak in Dance and Ladies if someone doesn't regain form by February. ITA is weak in Men, while potentially top in Ladies; Pairs are lower half of top 10, and Dance may depend on who shows for what. FRA is strong in Dance only with P/B, the Men (Amodio or Joubert) could place anywhere, but the way they've been skating recently, Top 5 would be a decent showing for them, and Ladies and Pairs are bottom half of top 12 (at Worlds). I know that only having one entry levels the playing field, but there's some formidable competition out there.
I don't see what three teams would drop Canada from the podium, barring disaster, and in that case, it wouldn't be a matter of whether or not Osmond skates.
In the finals, Osmond will have to skate very well to beat USA, but I don't think she has a great chance against RUS: even if there is a weak SP performance by RUS, even the relatively weak Worlds performances by Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva scored higher than Osmond's FS in London. If JPN is one of the Top Five, she's unlikely to beat the Japanese woman. Against ITA, it depends on who skates. I think either Osmond or Lacoste could be competitive against CHN, but, if history holds, Osmond should be Meite, while Lacoste would have a hard time if Meite skates well.
Regardless I think it's a good move for Osmond to rest and heal, so that she can have the best Olympics experience and be ready for 2018.
She lives and trains in the US.
thanks for the clearance about weizierl kwanfan
Ross Miner has WD from TEB: http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=4934
(His agent, David Baden, tweeted to him yesterday "get better soon Glad it's not serious" which sounds like a minor injury, hopefully.)
I would think ISU would think of a reserve skater travelling to the event by now, considering in each event at least one skater pulls out due to injury.
oh no, not my blonde puppy
best wishes to ross, hope he can bounce back at nationals.
but all these withdrawals and empty spaces really suck
From USFS' press release: http://www.usfsa.org/Story.asp?id=49697&type=media
It's a Miner injury....
I agree. After the last few seasons when the GP was rather weak i was looking forward to a season with a full slate of the top skaters for the first time since 2009. Kim was coming back and with the younger girls rising it was going to be a great season. But it's sucked at times with all the withdrawals. Just look at TEB and how weak that event is Ashley might as well just show up and she'll win with the level of competition there. Of course even if Kim had been there it's ridiculous how weak it is.
TEB has Sotnikova and Pogorilaya as well as Gao and Cesario. I've seen weaker fields.
Glebova is registered to compete at Merano Cup this week, so she is in Europe.
Heck, Balde and Rogozine should fly over with Chan and drop by the registration desk, maybe they can be walk-on entrants...
"Ross Miner, the reigning U.S. silver medalist, has withdrawn from 2013 Trophee Eric Bompard due to a right ankle sprain. The event will take place Nov. 15-17, in Paris."
I got a kick out of the phrasing - sounds like his ankle sprain is going to be a three day event in Paris...
Ah I missed that. It would make sense indeed, then.
So TEB has only 8 men now? Or was Chafik Besseghier replaced?
Besseghier has not been replaced. He withdrew on 5 November, 9 days before the Team Leaders Meeting this Thursday, 14 November, which is in the undefined <14 and > 7 period. On the other hand, they replaced Popova/Massot, whose withdrawal appeared on the 7 November grid, 7 days before the TLM, with Prolss/Blommaert, when the ISU likely would have given them permission not to replace the Pair. Go figure.
Me too. http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpchn06/CAT002RS.HTM
Awww, memories of one of my favorites, Julia Sebestyen.
That was an amazing field. Sebestyen, Sokolova, Luca. <3
On another note, screw the French fed for not replacing the Man and the Lady they've cut.
French Fed. 'Nuff said.
OTOH, it seems they are equal opportunity f&#%ers - they screw all skaters, not just their own...
Roxana Luca in a GP event? How could I have missed that?!
Granny - good ole days!
And I agree - late withdrawals with no replacements suck ...
As well as those listed, I miss Nakano, Hughes, and Sawada.
Sorry to see all the injuries & withdrawals this Olympic GP season, however I hold no animosity against any of the skaters nor their federations, et al, just hoping the withdrawals give another skater the opportunity to compete. And if that's not possible, so be it, nothing gained nor nothing lost. jmho.
I just sincerely hope everybody is ready to go by the time Nationals gets here, and once that hoop is over, one last one to go, thee Olympics!
ps: um, my fave Evgeni Plushenko also had to withdraw from his his GP, which I see hasn't been posted on here yet, as he has his own thread for his, lol the ups & downs of being a legend.
Citius, Altius, Fortius
Sylvia reported on this thread that Plushenko has withdraw from Rostelecom Cup. It hasn't been updated officially on any ISU documentation (RC roster or grid) yet.
It's now eight days before the RC Team Leaders Meeting, just in the undefined period in which the Russian Fed can do whatever they want about replacements. Tomorrow, the ISU would allow them not to make a replacement. It would be ridiculous if they didn't replace Plushenko with 23-Menshov or 25-Voronov, especially if Kovtun was talking about this after CoC, and it was generally rumored, if not known.
Russian Fed is slightly more sane than the French one.
I am sure that either Menshov or Voronov are going to replace Plushenko.