Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Gracie4Gold, Feb 4, 2012.
I think that Zijun Li could sneak onto the podium.
She skated a clean FS at the 2009 JGPF to pull up from 5th to 3rd and she also had a clean FS at the 2010 JGP Austria where she scored 109.XX (though she didn't do 3f-3t in that program).
Did I understand correctly that Liza won't go to Junior worlds because she is too tired? In that case I guess it would be Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya and a third Russian lady (Shelepen may be?) at the Jr. worlds. The first two have a chance to win a medal, but hard to say if it will be a gold. Isn't Sotnikova also tired from competing throughout this season? I believe she competed in as many events as Liza.
Liza competed more events internationally and Started of with Japan Open, Skate Canada, TEB (France), GPF (Canada) and Youth Olympics (Austria), domestically Russian Nationals. Adelina did cup of china, Cup of russia, Zagreb (golden spin), Youth olympics, nationals may be a cup of russia. Unlike Liza, adelina's most evens where in europe so lot less travelling.
I agree with Macassar88 that Zijin Li can clearly challenge the russians for the medal.
Umm...I wasn't being serious. :
Something tells me that very, VERY soon we are all going to be reminiscing over the not-so-bad-afterall Kwan vs Slutskaya rivalry. Hopefully none of them take the bait reporters will be throwing at them..
You never know on these pages !
She's been skating pretty consistently, and she has a good 3f 3t as well as a 2a 3t
so if she can get her choreography and transitions up, she could definitely be a factor in the future. Also, she almost beat Sotnikova at YOG, and she probably would have had she done the 3F 3t instead of a 3f 2t
ITA. I'm getting a little sick of the Gracie-hype already. The girl is talented; no doubt. But she will be one of the most inexperienced skaters at jr. worlds this year. Both Adelina and Liza are defending Jr. world medalists and Julia is the JGPF champ...all of them have more international experience than Gracie. I think Gracie's big jumps make her a contender (obviously) and her speed is nice but not remarkable given her competition. The point is she is completely untested when it comes to big-time international pressure. I'm proud of her for pulling off the win at jr nationals, but it's not like she was facing any kind of challenge there. No one was on her level. She could have had multiple mistakes and still won. Gracie's never faced off against anyone who was on her level. That's a different kind of pressure. It's probably easier to skate when you know you have room for an error or two, but how will she hold up under the pressure of knowing one mistake could knock her off the podium? It's a completely different situation and next year, if she jumps to seniors, that will be an entirely different situation yet again...she's got a lot left to prove to live up to the hype people are constantly pouring on her.
I hope she does well, mainly b/c I can't imagine how badly she'll be torn apart if she doesn't. If everyone skates their best, I say she'd end up 4th. If Adelina's clean, she wins. Her speed is awesome, her jumps are explosive and ginormous, her presentation is wonderful and her spins and other elements are better than last year. Liza's got a solid 3-3 and lots of performance ability which will score her high, plus she's got rep points b/c of her performance on the GP this year. Julia has had a magnificent year. Her jump content isn't as difficult but she can make up a lot of points in spins and presentation.
Gracie will need to be clean and will probably need others to make mistakes in order to win. She can go toe-to-toe with them in terms of jumps, but her presentation isn't as strong as the others and her spins are pretty mediocre. She has a good shot at medaling, but she'll need to be on her "A" game if the Russians are on theirs.
They have just had Russian Junior Nationals. Had Russian and American junior nationals been one competition, then Gracie would not have even made the podium as these were the scores:-
1. Julia Lipnitskaya - 191.92
2. Polina Shelepen - 182.54
3. Elena Radionova - 178.94
4. Gracie Gold - 178.92
Notice that Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Korobeynikova did not even compete at Russian juniors. Had they done, then Gold would probably have ended finishing 7th.
As I understand it, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya will all be going to junior worlds. Hence, can't see Gold coming away with a medal.
Those are all inflated Nationals scores. If you use ISU Seasons Best scores, Gold doesn't drop off the medals:
183.05 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU JGP Trofeo W. Lombardi 2011
182.89 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Trophee E. Bompard 2011
172.69 Gracie GOLD USA ISU JGP Tallinn Cup 2011
169.75 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2011
And those are all Seasons BEST scores (except for Gold, who won the only JGP she entered). Here are some others:
172.51 LIPNITSKAYA, JGP Poland
159.95 SOTNIKOVA, Cup of China
157.61 SHELEPEN, JGP Roumania
153.40 SHELEPEN, JGP Latvia
149.87 KOROBEYNIKOVA, JGP Roumania
139.62 KOROBEYNIKOVA, JGP Australia
The Russian girls are human beings just like anyone else.
A few more junior international scores from this season...
Top 4 ladies at JGP Final in December 2011:
1 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS 179.73 1 1
2 Polina SHELEPEN RUS 162.34 2 2
3 Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA RUS 151.18 5 3
4 Zijun LI CHN 146.53 6 4
Top 3 ladies at Youth Olympic Games (January 2012):
1 TUKTAMISHEVA Elizaveta RUS 173.10 1 1
2 SOTNIKOVA Adelina RUS 159.08 2 3
3 LI Zijun CHN 157.70 3 2
Russia named their Junior World team ladies as of February 8: Adelina Sotnikova, Elizaveta Tuktamisheva, and Julia Lipnitskaia. I assume Polina Shelepen is the first alternate and will be ready to go, if needed.
They may not be ISU scores, but the fact of the matter is they are their most recent competitions, they are their home nationals, and they are therefore comparable. Gracie would therefore not have medalled. Looking at Gracie's LP from nationals, it certainly would not have won her medal at Russian juniors. The fact that she has a lower score only goes to support that.
the russian national scoring system is different and don't they have sort of bonus. If Gracie competed there she would have finished second if she skated clean above the 183. mark ahead of Shelepen.
Well I for one am looking forward to see these all talented young ladies compete in the same competition in Minsk later this month! Let's hope it will be as exciting as we fans are anticipating!
ETA: I don't believe the Russian nationals scoring system gives out bonus points for certain technical elements (such as triple-triples by the ladies) any more.
Both Liza and Adelina essentially bombed in the long at the Youth Olympics. Wich is a testament to how good Liza is compared to Jr girls...she bombed and still won!
As far as I know, they are no different. Precisely in what way are they different and what bonus are you referring to? Each countries nationals are the same and the only difference between them and ISU comp's is that the scoring tends to be a little higher.
Gracie was not clean at nationals and that is her problem. Like all those who rely upon big jumping, she is prone to making mistakes. The price they pay for attempting such big jumps is lack of consistency. She reminds me Tonya Harding and the longer Harding kept on competing, the more inconsistent she became. To say that if she skated clean is therefore big if!
Gracie was not clean on her LP at Nationals but if you compare I know all nationals inflate their scores but if she skated clean in the US scoring she would have reached above the 180 mark and if you compare that in russian results she may have finished 2nd or maybe 3rd.
That was the name of my very first cat. Mortimer Snerd.
The only flaw in your reasoning that there is only a slight difference is that Gracie's JGP score is 172.69 and her Nationals winning score is only 6 points higher at 178.92. where as Julia went from 179.73 at the JGPF all the way to 191.92 at nationals that seems a bit extreme!
Fortunately, all the speculation will be moot in a couple of weeks when they can skate before the same panel of judges on the same ice. That's what will count.
If you watch the programs, you will work out why. The main reason is that Gracie's skated much less well at nationals compared to the grand prix. If she had skated as she did at nationals at the grand prix, her score would have been in the mid 160's. The grand prix may have been a one off in which everything went right for her. The consistency problem will always be her main obstacle and that was the problem she came up against again at nationals (which was what happened last season). Big jumps = lack of consistency. Same thing happened to Harding, Bonaly, and most of the other big jumpers. Problem is that that is her main asset at the moment. Its not as if she can scale back for consistency and make up for it with artistry/PCS (like Kostner) as she is not that developed yet in the artistry/PCS department. Unlike the other juniors therefore, all she can do is go for the big jumps and hope for the best
But, it's fun to speculate
Anyway, who are your picks to medal? Let us know, so we can all anticipate who will bomb
Just for that: Gold for Gold mwhahahahahahaha.
I like all 3 of the young Russian skaters equally.
I'd love to see Adelina pull it together and skate well. She had a flawed but solid debut on the GP (3rd in both of her assignments) before winning nationals and then bombing at the YOG but finishing 2nd. It's been a good year for her medal-wise, but last year she was undefeated so it's a bit off of her standard. Her confidence seems to have taken a hit but I really hope she gets it back. She is my favorite of the Russian ladies: gorgeous lines and presentation, extension, attitude, huge jumps and that certain spark. I'm dying to see her get some better choreography though (her SP is very nice but her LP leaves a lot to be desired).
If she nails her jumps, she's pretty much unbeatable. Liza has better lutz technique but Adelina's jumps are much bigger, her spins are better, her ice coverage is better and she leaves a better overall impression on the ice. Julia's difficulty isn't as high nor are her skating skills...but in another year or two, she'd be the main challenger for Adelina (though I hope Julia ditches the Morosov choreography and finds someone else).
Just like last year, this year's jr worlds will be more entertaining than senior worlds IMO. The talent is so deep on the junior level: the Russian Triumvirate (Adelina, Liza, Julia), Zijun Li of China is wonderful (great speed, tight jumps with good ice coverage, the best spins in the field behind Julia, and a lovely lyrical style to her skating); then we have the famed Gracie Gold as well.
The competition is going to be fierce. I have no idea who will medal but I'd like to see Adelina and Zijun on the podium...no telling how it will shake out though.
Is there a consensus that the medal threats (in no particular order) will be - Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Gold and Li?
Any Japanese ladies a threat?
I really don't keep track of the Jr Ladies, but is there really no serious Japanese contender for the podium
That hasn't happened for a while?
they have 2 girls for junior worlds I think
they have Satoko Miyahara but other than that not that much contenders
Risa Shoji has been going downhill every season she placed 6th at YOG behind
the Korean skater girl Kim Hyun.
That is a sad thing :
Japan's 3 JW ladies' entries are posted in the 2012 Junior Worlds forum in Kiss and Cry as follows: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=81745
Miu Sato (S5/J6), Satoko Miyahara (S6/J1), Risa Shoji (S7/J3/JGPF-6/YOG-6)
I don't think any of the Japanese women will challenge this year, but I say give Miyahara a couple of years...her SS are fabulous but she's so freakin' tiny, people don't really notice. She's like 12 or 13 right now. Hopefully she'll survive her growth spurt because I really think she could be something special.
My favorite of those three is actually Sato. Hope she does well! She's very inconsistent however.
No. Look at the protocols.
At JGP Estonia, Gracie skated a clean program except for popping the 3Lo:
3z+3t, 2a+3t, 1lo, 3f, 3z, 2a+2t, 3s.
At Nationals, Gracie's one mistake was a fall on the 2a:
3z+3t, 2a+3t, 3lo, 3f, 3z, 2a(fall), 3s+2t
Gracie added the 2t she normally adds to the second 2a, to the 3s.
So Gracie got less points for the 1lo (+0.5) at the JGP than she did for the 2a with a fall at Nationals, even with the -1 deduction for the fall (+1.13 overall).
Also, Gracie was credited with three L4 spins and L4 fw at Nationals, but only two L4 spins and an L2 spin and L3 fw at the JGP.
So Gracie did better at Nationals than at the JGP.
And I don't see any lack of consistency in these two performances. Both were very good.
She can't. She is working on it. Two different things.
No she isn't. A lot of work is needed on her posture, extensions and overall polish.
She doesn't. A lot of work on the PCS is needed and her current programs aren't very well choreographed.
Hopefully she'll survive puberty with jumps intact and will address the PCS issues raised above.
She already did. Gracie is 16, not 14 like the Russian ladies. Gracie's major growth spurt last year affected her jumps, but she's got them all back.
She could theoretically still grow but I guess she probably won't any more.
Well, that's very good to know because her jumps are incredible.
Well well, I had completely forgotten about the fact that she popped the 3R at JGP Estonia. It must have got lost in all the hype. Just reinforces my point about her inconsistency even further as it means that she still hasn't put together a clean LP in a major competition this season. I'm sorry, but the hype is so misplaced.
Lets wait and see what happens. If she starts putting together some clean programs with better artistry and starts winning some major international competitions, fair enough. But to start saying that she will CRUSH (i.e. the title of this thread) the competition based upon what she has done to date (with programs that were not even clean and which highlight a lack of consistency - having to go for big jumps to make an impact as they are her only weapon, and not surprisingly failing on some of them as most of those who rely purely on jumping ability find) is well over the top.
If Gold is labeled inconsistent because of one mistake in each of her two recent FSs, then I guess the Russian ladies are horribly inconsistent as well:
Sotnikova fell on 3z attempts in the SP at both Cup of China and Cup of Russia. She also popped a lutz in the FS at Cup of China and and a 3f attempt in the FS at Cup of Russia. At the Youth Olympic games FS, she URd the 3lo in her 3z+3lo combo and popped the flip and the loop. She also has a major flutz.
Tuktamisheva doubled a loop and stepped out of the 2a in the SP at the GPF. In the FS she double-footed the 3t in her 2a+3t. At the Youth Olympic Games FS, she fell on the 3f and popped the axel in her 2a+3t combo.
I never said anything about Gold "crushing" anyone. The poster who started this thread said that. But Gold's faults are being magnified beyond all recognition while the Russian ladies are held up as models of consistency and impossible to beat.
Yeah, missing one jumping pass out of seven = inconsistency. Right.
I think if you polled the people who have posted in this thread, an overwhelming majority of them would likely disagree with the (trollish) title of this thread.
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