Gracie Gold : What are her chances at Sochi?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by olympic, Jan 16, 2014.

  1. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    What do you think Gracie's chances are at the Olympics, skating like she did at Nationals, repackaged by FC, and w/ the promotion of the USFSA?

    I think she is a medal contender. I think Gracie's technique and SS are better than that of Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya, but the competition is in Russia which gives them an automatic leg up. Of course, either of them skating lights out in Russia would almost guarantee a medal.

    Could she be any sort of factor against Mao or Yu Na?

    What about Kostner? In her present state, she will be hard-pressed to compete w/ those she was supposed to.
     
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    An interesting question.

    She is no factor against Kim IMO. Kim is just too consistent, and Gold would need mistakes to beat her, and they just dont come, not enough of them anyway.
    Watching Kim skate today though and Gold's improvement I think if Kim were a newcomer and Gold the established champion, a confrontation between the two would almost be Gold's to lose now. Kim has lost some spark and dynamic to her skating, and Gold with her excellent technical abilities and much improved artistry would have a real shot if she the more established skater, but such is not reality. After seeing Korean Nationals, and thinking of the scores Kim got last year at Worlds (knowing her short program will be 6-10 points higher this time around if she skates cleanly) which arent even being matched by other contenders skating lights out at their own Nationals, I doubt anyone is a real threat to Kim right now.

    If Mao doesnt get her triple axel in order though or change her strategy Gold could be a big threat to her. I dont see Mao getting away with messing up in some way nearly every triple axel attempt like she did this season thus far if the girls step it up like they practically all have lately. A couple months ago I thought she had a real shot at the Olympic Gold, but now I think she will be fighting to stay on the people over people like Gold and Sotnikova and several others.

    Kostner is in big trouble. Even when she skates well she is being outscored by more and more people now. Forget if Gold can possibly beat or upset her, Gold might be more of a contender than her right now.

    Sotnikova and Lipnitskaia will get a home country boost and are scoring highly even outside their home country this season so Gold will have to skate lights out finish above them. Sotnikova, like Gold, is learning how to compete, and the judges seem to be really starting to fall for her.

    Suzuki if she skates like Japanese Nationals will be hard to deny a medal of some kind, and would be hard for Gold to beat, but she rarely skates to that level.

    Murakami and Wagner are long shots at best and Gold will beat both no problem if she simply skates to her potential.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2014
  3. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    Gold will need help from the big guns to medal. And she herself would have to do as well as she did at Nationals. But it's possible.
     
  4. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    ^ Nutshell.

    She looks like a million dollars and an Olympic medal... even gold if Yu Na has an off night. But will she be able to "just do her job"? She has a lotta lotta pressure on her unless The Zen King is able to shut it all out for her.
     
  5. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    Well, Yuna AND Mao and possibly Carolina Kostner would have to have a night off. I think if they are both clean, the judges would pick Gracie over Julia in the SP--didn't they do that at SC, even with the horrid SP she had then? The newly Frankified lovely Grieg SP would definitely come out on top.

    Not sure what they would do head to head with Adelina.
     
  6. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    Gracie's Grieg beats Adelina's Carmen. And I like Adelina a lot.
     
  7. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    I don't like Adelina at all, so I agree with you. :p Adelina might get the home ice nod, though.
     
  8. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    I dont like her Carmen program. :p But Gracie will have to be essentially perfect to go past the Julia-Adelina-Mao gauntlet. Anybody's guess who will crumble at the key moment.
     
  9. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    Like others have said, a medal is certainly possible, but I do not know if its likely. A good Kim is out of reach by pretty much everyone. Mao and Carolina haven't been anywhere near close to clean, so they are perhaps beatable. If Adelina and Julia can skate very well, I think they judges would want to reward the home country with a medal. Gracie's chances would be better if this were not held in Russia. Gold has better programs than Adelina, and skates with more amplitude than Julia, but I would say Julia is the most consistent of the 3, this season Julia has been Building the Campaign, as Paul Wylie like to say.


    Gold controls her own placement over the rest of the field. Yes, Akiko has heartfelt artistry, but Yuna clobbers her every time with better technique and greater athleticism, why shouldn't Gracie. Ashley screwed up Nationals, but even at her best, I don't think she could have beaten Gold last week. Murakami has hammy programs and her technique leaves much to be desired.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2014
  10. JJS5056

    JJS5056 Member

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    I think the SP will be key. If everyone skates clean, I think we'd be looking at:
    1. Yuna
    2. Mao asada
    3. Sotnikova
    4. Lipnitskaya
    5. Wagner
    6. Gold/Suzuki/Kostner

    Euros has shown us Kostner needs mistakes from the baby Russians and I have to imagine the same applies to anyone with a 3t-3t. This will be the first time the international judges will have seen Gold's new SP, and Wagner has done enough internationally the last 3 seasons to justify being given the top spot for the USA if clean.

    Should those 8 go clean, however, the long will be a bloodbath. Now that the Russians have evened out the playing field and Kostner's lost her grip on a guaranteed bronze, we could even see #8 climb up to claim third. If Ashley is feeling comfortable with S&D, and Carolina with Bolero, I'm thinking final results:

    1. Yuna
    2. Lipnitskaya
    3. Kostner
    4. Mao Asada
    5. Wagner
    6. Suzuki
    7. Sotnikova
    8. Gold

    Just a hunch- Mao will stumble on her axels and at least one other jump, whereas Sotnikova and Gold will be sloppy overall. 3-5 will be a close call, with Suzuki and Wagner making less mistakes but losing to Kostner's Bolero.
     
  11. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Asada might win the SP if both she and Kim are clean in that phase since Kim is skating in an earlier flight. She wont be given a score as low as Worlds last year, but it probably wont be much higher than a 75ish, and Mao can score higher than that if she ever does a clean short. Although I dont expect a clean short from Mao so Kim will probably win the short anyway.

    I also couldnt see Wagner beating a clean Gold in the short program. In the long program maybe, but not in the short.
     
  12. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    WRT to Gold's SP--have you seen her terrible awful no good very bad Gershwin SP? And yet the judges put that ahead of a clean Julia. Julia's flutz hurts her. I think the new and improved SP is even more likely to place ahead of a clean Julia. But as mentioned, a clean Adelina may hold a clean Gold down just for the sake of some good ole home cookin'.
     
  13. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I don't know what people are smoking but a clean Gold will not be beaten by a clean Wagner in the short. Little from this season suggests otherwise. I don't think Wagner beats a clean Gold in the long either. Momentum still plays a role in figure skating. Right now the pendulum has swung in Gold's favor. It can always swing back to Wagner but I doubt that will happen so soon and at the Olympics no less.
     
  14. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I agree. Gold at Skate Canada when she was struggling with consistency, had that awful program, and was clearly U.S #2 scored higher than Wagner has in the short program all season by a couple points, even at the GPF where Wagner skated cleanly with her triple flip-triple toe (and lost to Sotnikova who did only her triple toe-triple toe, even with higher PCS than Sotnikova). Unlike the long program which is still alot about the overall impression, being consistent and stable, ability to execute a wider variety of moves well, and smart element arrangement, the short program is all about the quality of your top elements first and foremost, and Wagner will never beat Gold on that, and as you said all the momentum after Nationals is now heavily in Gold's favor. Wagner will need to skate exceptionally well at the Games to even be considered now.
     
  15. zippy

    zippy Active Member

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    If all go clean I can see Gold sitting around 3rd behind Yuna and Mao, with Sotnikova/Kostner/Lipnitskaya not far behind in some order. Sotnikova and Gold are both looking great in the SP but that more difficult combo should help Gold if both skate well, even with a home field advantage. If there are mistakes and Gold is clean, as high as 2nd after the short might be realistic. Girl was looking like a potential medalist last week.
     
  16. JJS5056

    JJS5056 Member

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    I think you are all overestimating the scores from the GP series. History has shown that the results of the Olympics are almost always an anomaly. Hell, heading into the season, most thought the podium was all but locked up with YNK-MA-CK.

    I think Russia will be pulling hard for Sotnikova and using Lipnitskaya as a backup, as Julia has gained a ton of momentum since her early GP events. She'll be be very close to Adelina in case the former bombs given her consistency.

    Meanwhile, I think many are overestimating the results of National events. They certainly didn't hurt Lipinski, Hughes or Arakawa. Wagner has 2 GPF med as and 2 top 5 World finishes... With a triple flip-triple toe, I think she'll edge out Gold.

    I also think you are all ignoring what I said in my first post: it's going to be extremely close. I won't argue with anyone who mixes up my top 8 prediction... I think we just need to keep in mind what the Euros SP just showed us: Russia 1-2 are ahead of a flawless Kostner. Where does that leave the rest?
     
  17. t.mann

    t.mann New Member

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    In Europe soil (not Russia), a clean Caro who is Europe queen lost to a clean Adelina & Julia.
    In Russia, a American + new face skater can win over clean Russian skaters??
     
  18. clairecloutier

    clairecloutier Well-Known Member

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    If all skate clean, I think Gracie's SP will be top 3 in Sochi. I really believe if she skates her best, only Yuna and Mao can beat her in that segment.

    Adelina might be close, considering how well she's done in the SP this season. But I still think in a head-to-head clean matchup, she goes behind Gracie, due to quality of elements, and also strength of program.

    As to the LP and overall winner, I can't predict, there are just too many variables! Yuna obviously remains the favorite, but she'll need to find some spark and motivation before she takes the ice in Sochi.
     
  19. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I'm still amazed how Frank has made Gracie look more like a real skater now then just a jumping machine. And let's not forget Lori Nichols after all she choreographed Gracie's new SP. Gracie does seem to do what her coaches tell her to do which isn't always the case with some skaters. Medal or no medal if she keeps her head on straight she will be a World champion one day.
     
  20. RoseAugust

    RoseAugust Member

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    I was not a fan of Gracie's until the Nationals. I've come around (in spite of her lipstick which has nothing to do with anything other than it annoys me). I believe Gracie has a shot of medaling if she skates clean. I'm excited!
     
  21. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    as NBC puts its Golden for Gold :p
     
  22. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    I think the gold at the Games will be between Kim and Sotnikova with Sotnikova winning if both skate cleanly and Kim winning if she skates clean and Sotnikova has atleast one major error, maybe two. The bronze will be between Asada, Gold, Kostner, and Suzuki. If Mao has 2 mistakes or less she will get it for sure (if Mao goes clean she can even beat Sotnikova for the gold but she is super unlikely to skate clean), but if she makes more it could go to any of those other three.
     
  23. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    I totally disagree--if both Kim & Sotnikova are clean, Kim will be ahead.
     
  24. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    Sotnikova is already beating a clean Kostner who most believe would be close to a clean Kim, and Olympics in Russia mean the Russian girls will get higher marks than they would elsewhere. Kim's LP base value is also the lowest of all top 8 or 9 contenders. I think she is the only one below 60.
     
  25. clairecloutier

    clairecloutier Well-Known Member

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    I see no reason to think Sotnikova will beat Yuna Kim. I think it is just as likely the pressure of home ice will mess with Adelina's head as it is that it will help her. Of course, if she wins Europeans with an incredible LP, I might be forced to change my mind. :)
     
  26. shady82

    shady82 New Member

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    Oh god. I hope Sotnikova doesn't win gold. At the current state of her skating, that would be such an insult to Olympic skating (yes, worse than Hughes in 2002). :scream:

    I think people are underestimating Wagner and Suzuki and hope they have a good chance. Ashley scored around 69 for her SP at Skate America so I can see her scoring around 70 if she fully rotates her 3-3. Suzuki scored around 70 at Japanese Nationals for her SP, and the scores for the SP were generally not inflated. Either way I'm rooting for these two.
     
  27. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    Neither do I. I think a clean, inspired Kim would get her usual monster score vs. a clean, inspired Sotnikova. Plus Yuna does 3l/3t and Adelina 3t/3t. Not sure how their GOE compare exactly and am too lazy to pull up protocols but my feeling is Yuna will go ahead of her.

    MAY BE, just may be if Sotnikova goes back to 3l/3loop and lands it which is doubtful, she has a better chance.

    Anyone know how their base TES stack up? I hate numbers.
     
  28. MrLucky

    MrLucky New Member

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    I love Adelina but doubt she will skate two clean programs under Olympic pressure. Only Mirai and Yuna skated perfect LP's in Vancouver so Adelina has to prove she can do it when it counts

    If she does her wonderful spins and home ice are worth a few points over Kim.
    Remember we are not talking pure sport here but an event with heavy backroom deals.

    You think Tat backed with Putin's deep pockets is gonna lose a close decision on home ice?

    Yuna is the favorite but she must skate like it. If she opens the door Adelina, Julia and Mao will be waiting for her. And who knows, maybe Gracie or even Ashley will show the skate of their lives and get into the mix.

    Good luck to all the Ladies and hope the one's who skate the best are on the podium.
    As always, hoping for sport and not politics.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2014
  29. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    I don't really see what Kim has that Gracie doesn't, other than reputation. If all go clean in the SP I'd say it's Kim, Asada, Gold, Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya, Kostner, Wagner, Suzuki. I don't see Gracie or Adelina keeping it together in the free though.
     
  30. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    I have been saying for about a year now that Gracie's 3l/3t is just as good as Yuna's. And now that Gracie has her newly acquired polish and shine, her PCS should be very high too. So I can't answer your question, I don't see what Kim has over Gold, other than the reputation of a WC and OGM. And of course, this will factor in.

    I agree with this. Both don't quite seem the seasoned pressure players yet, even with both doing so well at their respective Nationals. Stranger things have happened though.