GPF Dance

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Oct 13, 2010.

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Who will make GPF?

  1. Davis/White

    94.4%
  2. Pechalat/Bourzat

    90.7%
  3. Bobrova/Soloviev

    33.5%
  4. Faiella/Scali

    84.5%
  5. Cappellini/LaNotte

    49.1%
  6. Kerr/Kerr

    69.6%
  7. Hoffman/Zavozin

    3.1%
  8. Crone/Poirier

    40.4%
  9. Shibutani/Shibutani

    8.1%
  10. Riazanova/Tkachenko

    1.9%
  11. Ilinykh/Katsalapov

    41.0%
  12. Gorshkova/Butikov

    4.3%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Dragonlady

    Dragonlady Well-Known Member

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    One of the my greatest pleasure as a skating fan was falling in love with two children who were Canadian Novice Ice Dance Champions and watching them grow up on the ice to go on and become Olympic Gold Medalists and World Champions so I understand the excitement. Throughout this incredible journey, I was careful to keep my expectations low, so as not to be disappointed, and to enjoy watching them progress.

    In their first season, I thought they might be able to sneak into the top 10 at Worlds. They were 6th. In their second season, I thought they could contend for a medal, but 4th was likely. They were 2nd. The year of Tessa's surgery, I expected nothing for them. They were 3rd.

    The only time I went out on a limb in regards to V&M was predicting they would win the OGM AFTER seeing the debut of their LP at Thornhill. But everyone who was in the building that day was essentially saying the same thing, so I was hardly alone.

    I strongly believe that is it better to be pleasantly surprised at how well things are going than disappointed that my expectations haven't been met. Going back to my example of Sasha Cohen: a lot of people are disappointed she didn't do more. Being a World and Olympic silver medalist, and US Champion were great achievements, but those accomplishments pale when you look at all that was expected/predicted for her: OGM, multiple World Championships, first woman to land a quad.

    It's hard to enjoy the journey if your skater/team fall short of the destination.
     
  2. pumba

    pumba New Member

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    Very well said, Dragonlady! I am agree with most of it. So does this mean you actually like I/K that much?;)
     
  3. Dragonlady

    Dragonlady Well-Known Member

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    Oh yes. I am really looking forward to seeing these two progress but I'm keeping my expectations low and see how it goes. At this point, if they win a medal of any colour in either of their GP events, I'll be thrilled for them. I also admit to being very fond of Bobrova & Soloviev as well and I'm surprised they haven't risen higher since I first saw them at Skate Canada in 2007.

    My problem is I like too many skaters and I don't care where they come from. When they all show up at the same competition, I sometimes don't know who I want to win, although in ice-dance, it's always Tessa & Scott.

    Last season at Canadians, it was very difficult for me. I so wanted Crone & Poirier to go to the Olympics. In 2006 I sat at Nationals and said "If we take up a collection, can we buy Andrew Poje a partner who can keep up with him?", so how can I not cheer for Andrew now that he has that special partner? In the end I was cheering for Paul and Vanessa, but I felt guilty about not cheering for Andrew and Kaitlyn.

    I'm viewing Tessa's surgery this season as an opportunity for D&W to win Worlds. Cause I like them too.
     
  4. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    Oh I agree with this. If you see my first post in this thread, I'm actually surprised that so many people think they'll make the GPF.
     
  5. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    Word. I agree too, and also like skaters based on personal preference, regardless of nationality or even winning potential.
    ... which does not prevent me from being excited and curious about how it all plays out
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2010
  6. ~tapdancer~

    ~tapdancer~ Well-Known Member

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    oleada and dinakt...are you guys talking about I/K or Bobrova/Soloviev making the GPF?

    Well, I kind of agree with this but then again sometimes you just like a skater/team that you know will never be on the podium but they just have that something special and you do enjoy the journey. I loved Bourne/Kraatz and enjoyed their world medals...their 4th place finishes in the Olympics was hard but it didn't make me love them any less. I still very much enjoyed the journey with them.
     
  7. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    I am talking about I/K
     
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    So you were wrong on V&M for 4 years later which you admit so you could well be wrong on I&K too. :p
     
  9. Dragonlady

    Dragonlady Well-Known Member

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    My expectations for them were always high. And they have always exceeded them. This is so much better than being a fan of a skater who melts down and falls apart, and still you love to watch them.

    How many North American ice-dance teams have finished in the Top 10 at their first Senior Worlds? How many North American teams have won a medal in their second senior year? I expected that, if they stayed together and continued to progress, Virtue & Moir had the potential to win Worlds. And even if they didn't, I didn't care, I just loved to watch them skate.

    And when I said that I thought they could make top 10 first year, people told me I was out of my mind. They'd finish 12th or thereabouts like every other Jr. World Champion team. People would post lists of skaters they couldn't possibly beat. This of course allowed me to do a little "Told ya so" dance in front of my computer after the results came up.

    Yes, I&K could exceed my expectations. I would rather be happily shocked to have them make the GPF than disappointed if they didn't. I don't think the pressure of unrealistic expectations is particularly good for any skaters.
     
  10. neptune

    neptune Well-Known Member

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    Well, D&W might have won anyway (they won the TES at this past year's Worlds), but this situation is certainly boosting their chances.
     
  11. Rafter

    Rafter Well-Known Member

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    Do you mean Jr champions? V&M never won the Cdn Novice title.
     
  12. Fallcolor

    Fallcolor New Member

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    It's a big pet peeve of mine, too! Ladies can get away with it in singles, but I have a big obsession with this in ice dancers. I think Vanessa can fix this soon enough though..if they can improve their skating as much as they did last season I think this should not be a problem. I think both skaters can do better in presentation however. Paul is an excellent single skater, but methinks his maturity could develop a tad more. I predict they will win Skate canada.
    As much as I too would like to see I/K kick some arse I think their having to catch up technically, would leave them a bit behind this season (like Mao). Not exactly fond of B/S and don't predict they will make the GPF, but won't be surprised if they do.
     
  13. Dragonlady

    Dragonlady Well-Known Member

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    I thought they had. I remember seeing them on the broadcast for the Jr. Canadians Championships when they were very small and they only show the Champions below Junior, not the other medalists.
     
  14. let`s talk

    let`s talk Banned Member

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  15. Dragonlady

    Dragonlady Well-Known Member

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    Well, one event down and both C&L and I&K now have no and little hope of making the GPF respectively. I&K would have to win their next event to have a glimmer of hope. I don't see that happening.

    Those thinking they should have the same career trajectory as V&M or D&W forget that these two teams both skated together for 10 years before they hit the senior circuit, and they spent three years together on the Junior circuit before getting to seniors. I&K are in their second season of international competition.

    4th at your first senior GP is a very good result.
     
  16. Libertango

    Libertango New Member

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    Last time I checked V&M and D&W did not make the GPF in their first year as seniors :shuffle:
    V&M: 2nd at SC and 4th at TEB
    D&W: 4th at SC and 4th at NHK
     
  17. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    Absolutely. 4th is a great start for a senior debut.
     
  18. Cloudy_Gumdrops

    Cloudy_Gumdrops New Member

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    It really is.

    Now maybe some people will lower their expectations a bit.

    This is their first senior season and only 2nd real full season of competing. They're doing pretty damn well for a team that doesn't have the experience of most of the others they'll be competing against (esp. those who have been together for years and years).
     
  19. elif

    elif Active Member

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    yes but performance not good. only rotational lifts and twizzle got level 4 in the FD. they can do much more than that.

    Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
    Base Value 37.00, tecnical score 42.67 (GOE=5.67)
    Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE
    Base Value 35.50, tecnical score 40.34 (GOE=4.84)
    Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV
    Base Value 32.00, tecnical score 36.85 (GOE=4.85)

    and

    Dora TUROCZI / Balazs MAJOR
    Base Value 32.00;)
     
  20. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    OTOH, C/L, base score 30.0 :wuzrobbed: worst of the event, other than the Chinese.

    and M/N base score 33.5
     
  21. Cloudy_Gumdrops

    Cloudy_Gumdrops New Member

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    Of course they can. But, it's only the first GP event of the season. You don't want them peaking too early. The GP series is a chance for the skaters to get their programs out there in front of the judges and get feedback on what they need to do and what they're already doing right.

    It would be stupid to count anyone out right now. Who knows what the skaters and their programs will look like in 3-4 months time when the really important competitions come around?
     
  22. shan

    shan Well-Known Member

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    :eek: what has happened to Anna and Luca???
     
  23. elif

    elif Active Member

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    their curve lift didn't count.
     
  24. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    I wonder whether they might be in 1000 depressions because F&S are still competing.
     
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  25. Dragonlady

    Dragonlady Well-Known Member

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    None of the teams achieved their levels. D&W only had four Level 4 elements. Both of the Shiibutani's footwork sequences were Level 2. W&P had three Level 4 elements and two Level 2 elements. All of the teams above them also have lots of room to increase their base scores.

    This was a very strong debut for this team, but they are not at the same level technically as teams like D&W, V&M, or even Crone & Poirier were when they moved up to seniors. These teams have all skated together since they were children and it makes a huge difference to their ability when they arrive in seniors. They also started competing in Juniors the moment they were age eligible so they have a depth of experience in international. These teams have a kind of sixth sense in relation to their partners which comes both from never having skated with anyone else and from many years of skating in close proximity.

    I&K are a stunning young team that needs time to both learn to be a team. They are way ahead of where you'd expect two skaters who have only been partnering for one full season of international competition. I hope people will allow them a year or two of developmental time before expecting them to challenge the top teams. IMO nothing destroys young skaters faster than expectations they cannot possible meet.

    This team has the potential to be something very special indeed, but they need time, good coaching, good programs, good health and good luck. It is unwise to assume that all of these things are assured. So far so good. As a skating fan, it's all I can hope for.
     
  26. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    ITA with DragonLady's post above.

    Two words: Romaniuta/Barantsev :shuffle:
     
  27. casken

    casken Well-Known Member

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    So we're half way through the GP, so I figured I would revive this thread too see where we stand.

    The top vote getters in order

    1. D&W
    2. P&B
    3. F&S
    4. Kerrs
    5. C&L
    6. I&K
    7. C&P
    8. B&S
    9. Shibs

    D&W were obvious. Kudos to the voters for pegging P&B as having a higher chance for making the GPF than F&S. C&P were majorly underestimated, which was obvious if you just looked at their assignments. C&L chances were the most overrated. B&S were slightly underestimated, while I&K were slightly overestimated. The Kerrs seem to be about right. Originally I dismissed the votes for the Shibs as just fan votes, but kudos to those voters as the Shibs have an outside shot of making it. No one talked about Weaver and Poje, but with a 2nd place they are in the running.

    The biggest upset in the making that no one seems to be talking about is Chock and Zuerlin. It actually seems unfair how competitive Russia is going to be while C&Z could win silver at TEB and qualify for the GPF becuase of such a weak field. The Kerrs, F&S, B&S, and I&K all should make the final over C&Z, but one or two of them could be left out becuase of the disparity in the fields. It would be great if they could send one of the Russians to TEB. I can't believe I'm actually rooting for Carryawn and Jonezzzzzzzzz at TEB now just to keep C&Z from qualifying. :shuffle:

    RIAZANOVA /TKACHENKO are the great unknowns at this point. They beat the Shibs by ten points at Nebelhorn, but that's partially becuase the Shibs had a disastrous SD. The Shibs actually beat R&T in the FD. But medals at SA and TEB for R&T are a possibility.

    At this point D&W, P&B, and C&P are going to make it barring absolute disaster. After that it's kind of a clusterf*ck between like 8 teams. I'm bad at crunching the numbers, but it seems who gets bronze at skate America, the placements of the top 4 at Russia, and what happens with second place at TEB are going to be deciders.

    Oh and lolz at the Gorshkova/Butikov votes.
     
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  28. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    Who knew G&B would have one of the lousiest programs of all times for an FD when they voted? :lol:

    However, I don't think C&Z are all that ridiculous. Last year was a sort of lost season for them, as it was for the Shibs...and no wonder with their coaches absorbed with having the 2 of the leading contenders for Olympic gold to deal with. and a number of other teams that had to qualify for Olympics, while neither C&Z nor Shibs had any shot at making the world team.

    This year, both teams have put their best foot forward, and won a bronze in their first event. Both teams will likely make it to worlds too, with S&B out.

    OTOH Carron / Jones have the second lousiest FD of the season, skating a flamenco in ridiculous outfits with silly twin bolero jackets to a muzak version of a Rolling Stones medley. There is a reason that C&Z beat them at SC. That FD would be it. Caberet isn't high art, but C&Z at least weren't ridiculous.
     
  29. casken

    casken Well-Known Member

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    I haven't been able make it all the way through C&Z's FD yet despite several tries, so maybe you're right. :shuffle:
     
  30. Dragonlady

    Dragonlady Well-Known Member

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    As someone who voted for C&P on the first go-round, I'm surprised they haven't picked up more votes after winning Skate Canada.