Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Oct 13, 2010.
With V/M out, who do you predict will be the 6 teams to make GPF? Multiple choice allowed.
Well, I voted for D/W, who I think will win, and then for the bunch of old timers - P/B, K/K, F/S, C/L - who I think the judges will favor because they're familiar. That left one opening - which I think will be I/K.
However, who I would LIKE to see in the GPF would be
B/S [maybe - if they finally get some decent material]
and the remaining 2 I'm split between F/s, k/K and p/B , depending on how I feel about their dances.
I'm really looking forward to the NHK Cup - i think the dance line-up there is the best of the series, even w/o S/B.
I will look at the event lineups again before voting but I dont think Cappellini & Lanotte will make it. I just have a feeling they are on the down. I do think I/K will make it. Before seeing the assignments I am going to guess the same teams as Tak except Crone & Poirier instead of the #2 Italians.
Davis/White, Pechalat/Bourzat, Faiella/Skali, Kerr/Kerr, Ilinykh/Katsalapov, and #6 Bobrova/Soloviev, Capellini/LaNotte, or Crone Poirier.
1. Davis & White 1-1 (Duh)
2. Faiella & Scali 1-1
3. Pechalat & Bourzat 2-1
4. Crone & Poirier 1-2
5. Ilinykh & Katsalapov 2-2
6. Bobrova & Soloviev 3-3
7. Cappellini & Lanote 3-3
8. Kerr/Kerr 2-4
Top 3 are obvious. Filling the last 3 spots is where it gets interesting.
It looks as if most of us are in agreement in regards to the six teams who will compete at the GPF.
With V&M out of the GP series I'm glad that the Kerr's and F&S are continuing and I&K have moved up to the senior division. I'm wondering if I&K can compete for a medal at the final. I suppose time will tell though at the moment my money is on the Kerr's and F&S joining D&W on the podium.
I realize this wasn't a who wins the medals post. Got carried away.
You can always count on Ice Dance for some easy predictions LOL..
I agree with the majority here the 6 teams will be:
Dark horses : Bobrova Solovive and Crone Poirier.
You guys are so optimistic for Ilinykh/Katsalapov. I love them and would love to see them in the final, but I don't think it will happen this year.
Wait a minute--what's their nationality again?
Do you really beleive they would have had lesser chance to make the GPF representing US or Canada?
I was sure Faiella and Scali were retired !
Ilinykh/ Katsalapov and Bobrova/ Soloviev would have to duke it out. In test skates it seemed Bobrova/ Soloviev are better prepared and have better Federation support- but I/K have so much "IT" factor D), I think the chances are even.
IlynikhKatsalapov will likely medal at NHK and same for BobrovaSoloviev at Cup of China so it will actually come down to who of those two teams gets the Bronze at Cup of Russia to see who will be considered Russian #1 team and who makes it to the final..
Who I would like to see in the GPF:
Federica & Massimo
Meryl & Charlie
Sinead & John
Nathalie & Fabian
Anna & Luca
Vanessa & Paul
... I gotta change my mind. The draw is kind to Crone/ Poirier, more advantageous than to Russian teams ( especially considering withdrawals).
I have looked and looked, and still can't see IT here. IMO this team is hugely overhyped. They still skate very juniorish to me. I've heard they are being pushed as the great Russian hope for dance gold in Soshi, but looking at I/K now vs how Virtue-Moir or Davis-White looked in 2007, they are still years behind. IMO the RSFS should be looking at them for 2018. Still being Russian, they can expect a lot of behind the scenes help, I guess.
I/K haven't had their first international senior competition and claims that they're already being held up have begun
I saw a poll on the Russian website that was from the other thread about who was more courageous in 2010 and I/K were third in a poll out of 3 of "who are you most looking forward to?" I just thought that was interesting because of what Tarasova was saying about them. But the international judges at junior worlds 2010 were very clear about them I/K compared to Monko/Khalavian and Pushkash/Gueriero and of course the Shibutani's and Paul/Islam-that I/K were the best out of all them and not by a little! So if the judges love them at jr worlds and that continues well then they should medal at their GP events and make the GP final and be big.
No, its more a prediction that they will be. Word is already around that they will be getting the big push from RSFS which usually also translates into support from their satellites.
Word from whom? Because TAT herself wasn't terribly complimentary about their programs this season.
I think they have amazing talent, potential, technical ability, and charisma, particularly her. If you don't think they have an It factor, then frankly, I'm not sure who you think does.
Each powerful federation pushes their ice dance teams as much as they can. Don't worry, Russians are as paranoid about the political push behind the spectacular rise of US and Canadian teams as you are about the Russian teams. It all depends on your point of view.
As for I/K, they haven't skated in a single senior competition yet and they have had just one year of international junior competition together. So it is way too early to predict anything about their chances for Sochi. However, they are overall the best junior ice dance team I have ever seen, when you take into account both technique and interpretation. This is my opinion of course.
I guess they would have been even more overhyped have they skated for Canada or the US.
Plus, saying that they are inferior to, or "years behind"!! of V/M and esp D/W at the respective age is a bit strange.
They'll do no worse than third at Skate America (I think second), and they'll do no worse than second at Skate Canada, and I have a feeling that they could win over the Kerrs there.
Just to be clear about where D&W and V&M were in their debut senior season (2006/2007):
FD Valse Triste
FD Polovetsian Dances
Skate Canada-4th, however this was a big comeback after a fall in the Golden Waltz CD
NHK 4th, including being first team to score all level 4's in both OD & FD
Did not qualify for the GPF
4CC's 4th (including finishing 3rd ahead of V&M in the CD)
Tessa & Scott were 6th at Worlds 2007.
We can't compare them to V/M and D/W circa 2007 yet because they haven't even started their first senior year yet. I would compare them to V/M and D/W circa 2006 and I think they are already superior to both of the North American teams in every aspect of their skating (technically and artistically wise).
Opinions always differ.
But in terms of "hype", so far I don't think it's coming from Russian Federation, but rather from many ice dance fans who think that I/K are immensely talented ( me included). If they continue to progress fast, of course the Federation will be behind them. If they falter, the Federation will back up Bobrova/ Soloviev (officials are hardly sentimental). Every country stands behind their team #1, and I/K have great pressure of expectation on them right now and no guarantees.
I think presently I/K are building a fanbase which has nothing to do with their nationality.
IMO, you're being overly optimistic. They are in no way technically superior to any number of North American ice-dance teams, including V&M, D&W or C&P. They are slow, don't skate all that closely together, but are a very, very talented JUNIOR team. Having seen their new programs, I'm expecting a sophmore slump.
I worry that because of all of the hype, there will be so much pressure on these two that they'll never live up to expectations. This is a junior team that's been together for one season. To expect them to be competitive with teams like D&W or V&M, or even Crone & Poirier, who have been skating together all of their lives, is unrealistic. And that doesn't even take into consideration things like speed, power and ice-coverage, which is always an advantage to the older, more experienced teams.
I know you love them, Dragonlady, but Elena is so much better than Crone, IMO, who has bad posture, ugly feet and moves rather ungracefully. Paul is amazing, though.
But tell us how you really feel.
I think Fashionista means juniors V/M and D/W (in 2006), not nowdays.
Oh, I hate Crone's posture, it's too bad for a dancer and seems to me they didn't even try to fix it
I think it's a problem for that coaching team, since Asher Hill is also a wonderful dancer but his partner Karis Ralph also has very bad posture.
I thought that Vanessa showed tremendous improvement in her posture last year. It was very noticeable. I also know that she worked very hard to improve it.
Suggestions that they didn't even try to correct her posture are completely incorrect.
And it's sad Maybe I'm the only one, but for me good posture and clean lines are the most important in ice dancing
You're not. I agree that they're very, very important.
As it already pointed out I compared I/K with junior V/M and D/W circa 2006. And, yes, I think I/K 2010 are superior to V/M and D/W 2006.
Are you sure you're talking about I/K?
Yep, in 2006 people told the same about V/M and D/W.
I'm not trying to say that in 4 years I/K win Sochi Olys but I'm just about your statement that I/K are not competitive with any North American team. Yes, this year they are not but who knows what happens in a couple of seasons later?
This will be I/K's third season together. Not second. Though the idea of a "junior team moving to seniors experiencing a sophomore slump" was funny.
The point I was making is that if I&K don't make the GPF, they would still be right on the same track as V&M and D&W-4th places in their first GP's. A possible 3rd or second if some more highly ranked team messes up a segment of the competition.
No tragedy. They would still be well on their way to Sochi.
Both teams had their senior debut at Skate Canada 2006
It looks like F&S had some kind of a problem in the OD. F&S should have finished second, but they faltered. Ice is slippery. And D&W fell in the CD (Golden Waltz).
V&M's second GP was TEB, where F&S beat them handily.
It appears V&M had a problem in the OD here. The CD was the Westminster Waltz.
D&W's second outing at NHK-no problems, just a harder field. The CD was the Rhumba.
Neither made the GPF.
Dorispulaski, thank you for bringing up the statistics.
From my very quick estimation, the only way for I/K to make GPF is to beat Capellini/ Lanotte in Japan- and it is highly unlikely in their first Senior outing ( or to defeat both Kerrs and Bobrova/ Soloviev in Russia). Their GP fields are pretty strong in both events. No reason to set unrealistic expectations- their season will be a success if they are top 6 in Europe, top 8 at Worlds ( and even that's hard to do).
Separate names with a comma.