From Russia with love - Summer through Autumn 2013

Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by allezfred, Aug 18, 2013.

  1. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    3,142
    I don't think you are right. I don't think the chances of Leonova are that great because the youngsters won't fail to make impact at Europeans. They did well last year and that was their first senior championship. Now they have experience from senior championships so I wouldn't worry much about them failing there. Besides, with the level of skating in Russia I think their own nationals may be a harder competition than the Europeans. Last year about 16 out of 18 girls had triple triple at Russian nationals (and most of them have all jumps up to Lutz), whereas at Europeans there is not that many skaters who have triple-triple and jumps up to Lutz.

    Actually, unless Leonova is held up at their nationals, she may finish so low that even if some of the youngsters did fail, there will still be a queue of ladies whose turn is before hers. My guess is that she will finish about 6-10 place, unless she regained her edge jumps or unless she is strongly held up.
     
  2. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    31,136
  3. Jeschke

    Jeschke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    3,230
    you're right hance, i spoke theoretic. i don't think , that the youngster will fail either. i just wanted to mention, that the russian fed is not to shy to throw someone out of the team and if that will happen (what i don't expect) i think chances will be high for someone like leonove in favor of some not so established skaters.
     
  4. nuge

    nuge Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2001
    Messages:
    4,032
    [QUOTE=alchemy void;3978576

    And I would have loved I/K's Ghost FD from last year on anyone else for the sheer trashy/campy quality it brought, and you've got to admit, it WAS different. However, I/K are so talented and have so much charisma and the potential to really shake up the snoozefest high-level ice dancing is these days. That's why I love to 'trash' them and Morozov. :smoking:

    With Grishuk on the team they could be fabulous.Hope she's going to be in the KNC :glamor::drama::drama:
     
  5. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,443
    Gosviani wasnet even qualified to go to euros and russia went out of it's way to get her qualified and send her to euros. If a skater has a good skate at nationals and hasn't even been out of Russia the whole season before nationals they could go to euros once they get the minimum scores!
     
  6. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    3,142
    Yes but the difference is that this year you have three spots and three very good youngsters (Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaya). Unless either of them have particularly bad season or is injured, I don't think any other skater would have the same chance to go to Europeans as Gosviani had last year. Especially when Europeans are a month before the Olympics and Russian Federation may want to use Europeans as the deciding factor for choosing who to send to Olympics. Also, the thing with Gosviani is that she did not have the qualifying score because she did not have any opportunity whatsoever to get one. It is not like if she were sent to a number of competitions and failed to get the score.
     
  7. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,443
    I think the message from the gosviani thing is that the Russian federation will dump a world medalist if they are beaten by someone who didn't qualify to leave the country didnt have the ijs minimums to go! So it really doenst matter what Liza Adelina did at euros 2013 or were at 2013 worlds. It's totally irrelevent. If they are beaten at nationals by someone who didn't even leave the country they are not going to euros! And will have to skate the Russia cup final! That's where leonova finally beat gosviani!
     
  8. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    3,142
    I think you are wrong. Leonova did not only mess up the nationals. She struggled the whole season. She finished at her GP events 6th and 7th out of 10. I was not surprised that she was dumped. I am wondering how it would damage her reputation if she completely messed up Europeans and then messed up the worlds. Also, why waste European spot on someone who is clearly not landing any edge jumps. (watch the worlds, I don't think she landed any loops and salchows at all).
     
  9. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,443
    At the Russia cup final there was credited loop and salchow by leonova. So that is where she was able to overtake gosviani. And I think agafanova too. But your main point of season long bombing puts sotnikova a risk because she's never had a good gp season. Not compared to tuktamisheva and lipnitskaia.
     
  10. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    3,142
    The difference is that Sotnikova's 'bombing' is 3rd and 5th place at GP event whereas Leonova's 6th and 7th. Furthermore, Sotnikova bombed only at one GP (the one where she was 5th. I wouldn't call being 3rd bombing) but then she did well at nationals and at Europeans, and again bombed at Worlds. Leonova bombed at both GP events, at nationals and at Worlds. So Sotnikova has been inconsistent (while adjusting to the puberty) and Leonova has been consistent in bombing anything she entered.
     
  11. Moka-Ananas

    Moka-Ananas Man's Ruin

    Joined:
    May 1, 2010
    Messages:
    4,259
    Since somebody mentioned Borodulin: Any news of him?
     
  12. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,443
    Sotnikova placed third at Russian nationals but her free skate was very bad. I would say at worlds even though Leonova didn't place in the top 10 all the skating from the Russian entries in ladies was basically equal. No one really did a good job in London in singles from Russia. They all did bad. It just so happened that in the competition to decide the third worlds spot leonova delivered Enough to have her best performance of the season. So if you look at the recent history of what has gone on in the ladies discipline in Russia and how skaters have gotten to events no one is secure and could be left off any team. If a worlds medal doesn't mean anything a 9th or 10th place certainly wouldn't.
     
  13. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    3,142
    Medal from worlds means something, but it is not enough when it is 2 seasons ago. 3 years ago Verner was quite good. Would you send him now instead of someone more deserving such as Brezina? I don't think anyone is trying to take her achievement away; Leonova will have her medal forever. Unfortunately when deciding who they are going to send, they have to look at how the skater has been skating recently, not 2 seasons ago.

    Would you send Czisny to Olympics just based on the fact that a few seasons ago she won GPF? Or would you look at how she is skating now?
     
  14. Jeschke

    Jeschke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    3,230
    czsiny is a quite good example; although i'm not sure whether the us fed would prefer her in comparison to zawadzki or gao (assuming wagner and gold are locked in).

    so much speculation right now, nobody would be surprised of olympics with la tuk and adelina, if alena stays at home. she and makarova were the beginning of russian ladies forcing back, as you said, she has her medal, no one can take that away from her.
     
  15. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    3,142
    To be honest, I quite wish Czisny got the third spot, but she would have to skate well. It would be extremely unfair if she got it despite skating badly at US nationals, just as a reward for her past accomplishments. That would just be unfair towards the others. But I am crossing my fingers for her.Maybe she will have the skate of her life at the nationals.
     
  16. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,443
    I definitely would not send Leonova to Sochi based on her world medal. Or Czisny to Sochi based on her GPF win. I just brought that up as a measure of the Russian federation not caring where a skater or has been or what a skater has done. Like Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva being at worlds in 2013! Like that's the only thing that matters for who is going to Sochi.
     
  17. rfisher

    rfisher Satisfied skating fan

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2005
    Messages:
    40,823
    I know Sochi is important to the skaters and the Russian fed, but I'm looking beyond Sochi for the Russian ladies. The next four years hold a lot of promise. I hope pairs in Russia don't hit a slump with the loss of V/T as I'm pretty sure they'll be gone. B/L should be there, but there's a pretty big gap between them and the rest. But, pairs take time and there are some good junior teams that might be there for the next 8 years. Actually, it will be interesting to see where pairs dominance shifts over the next 4 years as S/S and Pang/Tong will be finished as well.

    As for Russian men, who knows. They don't have another Plushenko...haven't had for the last 8 years...so who knows? Russian ladies are where it's at in the next quad.
     
  18. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,443
    They definitely need to stop looking for Plushenko level consistency and wins and just try about supporting an Abt! They get close with Gachinski with his worlds bronze and euro silver and does really poorly at a worlds and then go too far in public bashing. I know success in mens was so much greater than success in ladies and failure in men is considered outrageous but how about having some of the tolerance for disappointment they showed with Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva! Though I think the coddling of Kovtun shows that they are going in that direction.
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2013
  19. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,853
    LOL about Plushenko. A skater like him comes along once every 20-30 years, and Russia was so lucky to have Three great skaters- Yagudin, Kulik, Plushenko skating at almost the same time (and Urmanov a little earlier). That was truly the golden age for Russia in mens skating. It still baffles me that no other Russian man has established himself as a medal contender at the Olympics. At one time it seemed like Gachinski would be the next great skater, but now that is questionable. He still has more potential than any other Russian man, IMO.

    I think China, Russia, Canada will be the tops in pairs, in any order. Right now it doesn't look like any of them has a strong pair past Sochi. Russia does have B&L, and China has at least one young promising pair, but not three like they did in the past (S&Z, P&T, Z&Z). Canada could have two, if the current pairs plan to go for 2018 (I don't know their ages). We may never see again any one country dominating, the way Russia did for 40 years in pairs. I am hoping that some of the younger pairs would develop into something special. I miss the great Russian pairs of the past.
     
  20. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2010
    Messages:
    3,577
    Russia (or any other country) won't be dominant in skating the way the Soviet Union was because no one trains that way anymore. Not even China could look past the three good pairs they had to train a younger generation and it will take some time to build that up again.

    B/L never looked as if they had world champions written on them to me but I can see some of the junior pairs looking good after 2014. I also see V/T taking some time off then trying again in 2018 if they stay healthy, especially if something happens where they don’t get an Olympic Medal.

    I agree with what you said about Plushenko, like him or not he sure is something special.
     
  21. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    3,142
    Actually I think Russian pairs will dominate even after the Olympics, at least within Europe. From the simple reason that there is no one else strong enough. The strongest without Russian pairs there is Berton-Hotarek and James-Cipres (if we think that Savchenko-Szolkowy retire too). Bazarova-Larionov have beaten Berton-Hotarek and James-Cipres in the past, and on one occasion Stolbova-Klimov too. Gerboldt -Enbert are coming back after she had two surgeries last season so they may potentially get into their shape as they were in their first season. Antipova -Maisuradze have done quite decently, finishing at 4th place at senior nationals. Considering how short time they are together (relatively) they may have some future after the Olympics. I don't expect much from Martiusheva- Rogonov (pity, I really like them. I wish she was landing her jumps!!!)

    Plus we mustn't forget that some decent Russian junior pairs will be coming to seniors next year. I think Tarasova-Morozov will be ageing out of juniors (someone correct me if I am wrong) and Maybe within a year or two it will be also Davankova-Deputat and Fedorova-Miroshkin.

    No, I am definitely not worried that Russians would be lacking decent pairs after Volosozhar-Trankov and Kavaguti-Smirnov retire.

    Within worlds I do think Russian will manage to have three pairs within first ten even after Volosozhar-Trankov and Kavaguti-Smirnov retire.
     
  22. Eislauffan

    Eislauffan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2002
    Messages:
    3,974
    AFAIK he retired.
     
  23. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    3,142
    The difference is that Adelina messed two competitions within the season, whereas Leonova messed up all of them, and even worse than Adelina. Leonova did not manage even the 5th place at GP which is when Adelina messed up.

    "Sotnikova placed third at Russian nationals but her free skate was very bad." Who cares what her free skate was? If she was great enough to make up the points that even with very bad FS she finished third? Gracie Gold also did not have that great one GP event (finishing 7th), did not have that great 4CC (finishing 6th) and messing up her SP at the nationals (placed ninth in the short program). And yet somehow you are not writing her off...
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2013
  24. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,443
    I am not writing anyone off. Not even sotnikova. I am not saying leonova is better than sotnikova. The whole bing was about if Adelina bombs like leonova and is not in the top 3 of age eligible skaters for a spot for euros she shouldn't expect to go. Her free skate at Russian nationals 2013 I think shows all her vulnerabilities and why with Julia and pogorilaya her being at Euros is no guarantee! If they don't even send a world medalist over someone who didn't have IJS minimums why her?
     
  25. morqet

    morqet Active Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    994
    Even when Adelina "bombed" last season, she got free skate scores 10 points higher than Pogorilaya's best ever score. I think Anna has a an outside shot if she makes some big improvements this year, particularly in PCS, but I would expect Liza, Adelina & Julia to comfortably get the Euros spots, and then who knows who will get the Olympic places. All I will say on that front is that Adelina has been the most consistent & successful of the 3 in senior international events.
     
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,268
    Anna scored 109+ in her FS (junior) at GPF, 1 point less than Adelina's 110 FS at SA where she did not really bomb but rather lost points due to Zayaking - add in the spiral sequence Anna would be ahead, at COR Adelina's FS score was only 100+ points so 9 points lower than Anna at GPF and 6 lower than her JW FS score where Anna herself did not skate that well, and again junior programs and PCS is not as high at junior events either as we saw with Julia scoring 112 for her strong FS at Junior Worlds vs the 115-116 she put up on the GP for skates that were not as strong technically. So, yes, Anna can beat Adelina if Adelina bombs. In order for Anna to overtake Adelina, Adelina will have to make quite a lot of errors, but we've seen that happen before so it's not entirely out of the question. At Russian Nationals, Adelina will likely have more of a cushion, but last season Polina K. with no 3lz, one 3f, a stepout, and a fall, still managed to beat Adelina in the FS at COR, which puts things into perspective. And Liza's score from WTT is vulnerable to be beaten by most of the field at Russian Nats so she is not immune either if she bombs. Adelina and Liza have a lot more room for error than the other girls, but there are certainly a number of age-eligible girls who could overtake them should they bomb.
     
  27. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2011
    Messages:
    1,517
    Adelina not making the Olympics Team barring injury wont happen

    about the Pairs even after V/T and K/S retire
    there will still be B/L and S/K then comes some others like G/E, A/M or M/R
    juniors F/M, T/M, V/Z, C/C etc.
    maybe they'll have to climb again but there wont be a deficit
     
  28. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2010
    Messages:
    3,577
    I'm afraid M/R may never be successful, he's 25 and they have been together for over 7 years. Whatever problems they have are here to stay. It's time to get her to a good coach and both to new partners.
     
  29. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,853
    I don't see G &E or M&R making it. A&M may have a chance- we will have to wait and see how they do.

    With juniors it's always hard to predict who will be successful at the senior level.
     
  30. Jeschke

    Jeschke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    3,230
    Polina Agafonova FS at test skates to 'Pink Panther'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8s3ioZUXnk

    i like her developement in skating, unfortunately she takes really long preparation before the jumps, which seem kinda underrotaed, not to speak of her 2nd half of the program.
    steps really slow, nice layback in the end.
    sadly, that we will not see her at any championships, we know, other european countries would be pleased with a skater of that level