I don't think you are right. I don't think the chances of Leonova are that great because the youngsters won't fail to make impact at Europeans. They did well last year and that was their first senior championship. Now they have experience from senior championships so I wouldn't worry much about them failing there. Besides, with the level of skating in Russia I think their own nationals may be a harder competition than the Europeans. Last year about 16 out of 18 girls had triple triple at Russian nationals (and most of them have all jumps up to Lutz), whereas at Europeans there is not that many skaters who have triple-triple and jumps up to Lutz. Actually, unless Leonova is held up at their nationals, she may finish so low that even if some of the youngsters did fail, there will still be a queue of ladies whose turn is before hers. My guess is that she will finish about 6-10 place, unless she regained her edge jumps or unless she is strongly held up.