Examples: Expected big drops in standings by leaders going into Free Skate

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Seerek, Dec 18, 2011.

  1. Seerek

    Seerek Well-Known Member

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    The Kristina Wegelius example from the 1982 World Championships Thread (1 after SP to 9 after FS) brings up an interesting question:

    What are other examples of leaders who dropped a lot after the free skate, but this decline down the standings was actually expected?
     
  2. Louis

    Louis Tinami 2012

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    Anytime Sasha Cohen took the ice. :fragile: :wuzrobbed
     
  3. falling_dance

    falling_dance Bravo, Patrick.

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    Laura Lepisto dropped from first in the short to seventh overall at 2007 Skate Canada. I can't remember if quite that drop was expected at the time, but I don't think very many observers expected her to remain ahead of Asada, or even Nakano and Rochette.
     
  4. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    How about Julia Sebestyen at 2009 Cup of Russia?
     
  5. neptune

    neptune Well-Known Member

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    Well, except during her last competitive season, Nancy Kerrigan was usually pretty reliable in that regard. :)
     
  6. falling_dance

    falling_dance Bravo, Patrick.

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    Not as far as the overall standings were concerned. From 1991 to the end of her career, she remained on the podium on every occasion but one, and I get the impression that her below-third finish in Prague was something of a surprise (though not to everyone, I'm sure). Perhaps I'm interpreting the OP too narrowly, but I'd say that to have "dropped a lot after the free skate" is to have missed winning a medal altogether.

    1990-1991

    Nationals: 3rd in both phases
    Worlds: 5th to 3rd

    1991-1992

    Nations Cup: 1st overall (I don't know how she fared in the short.)
    Trophee Lalique: 4th to 3rd
    Nationals: 2nd in both phases
    Olympics: 2nd to 3rd
    Worlds: 3rd to 2nd

    1992-1993

    Skate America: 4th to 2nd
    Nationals: 1st in both phases
    Worlds: 1st to 5th
     
  7. michiruwater

    michiruwater Well-Known Member

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    Sasha Cohen epitomizes this.

    Before this season, I'd say Carolina Kostner. But then I can't quite recall if it was the sp or lp she usually blew?

    Kiira Korpi.
     
  8. Ares

    Ares Guest

    I didn't really *expect* Sasha to fall in the standings. I wasn't surprised when it happened though. She had the ability and had the potential to deliver and we could at least hope that she would.

    Kristina Wegelius, who the OP referenced, was expected to drop because she clearly didn't have the content to maintain the lead even before she stepped on the ice.

    Sasha Cohen could have won just about every competition she entered. It's a shame she never became a World Champion.
     
  9. Loves_Shizuka

    Loves_Shizuka Gettin' my sass out

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    When Nagasu led the 2010 worlds I didn't expect that to last.
     
  10. falling_dance

    falling_dance Bravo, Patrick.

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    With respect to expectations that she'd place lower in the FS, perhaps (though Ares makes a very good point).

    With respect to sharp declines in her overall placements after "winning" the short programs, no.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2011
  11. maharbabackward

    maharbabackward New Member

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    Berezhnaya and Sikharulidze's first World Championships.. 2nd in the SP.. and 9th in the FS I think?
     
  12. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Joannie Rochette at 2006 Worlds. :wuzrobbed

    Laetitia Hubert at 1992 Olympics. :wuzrobbed

    Surya Bonaly at 1998 Euros (IIRC, she was 2nd entering the FS, and 6th overall)...
     
  13. Maximillian

    Maximillian Well-Known Member

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    This was pretty much Kira Ivanova's entire 85-88 quad!
     
  14. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    I'd be surprised if anyone expected Bobek to maintain her lead in 1995 over Chen and Bonaly at Worlds. As a big Nicole fan, I definitely hoped she would hold on to her lead, but I definitely didn't expect it to happen. She was lacking in experience, confidence under pressure, and consistency. I'm sure being in the lead after the SP must have surprised her and everyone else and unfortunately added more pressure to her than she could deal with. :wuzrobbed
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2011
  15. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Olga Markova was 2nd after the SP, and she finished in 5th. It really was a special World championships !
     
  16. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    This happened a lot more often during the figures era where several of the leaders after figures were expected to drop once the free skating started, and vice versa.
     
  17. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    It happened, but to a lesser extent than one might imagine, and mostly during the period when Wegelius and Deborah Cottrill, who had a similar sharp drop in the standings, finished just behind her at 1982 Worlds, happened to skate.

    Earlier, using factored placements and total points tended to favor those who were strong in the Compulsories. This is why Beatrix Schuba was able to win the 1972 Olympic Gold Medal even though she was only seventh in the Free Skate. This was true even after the introduction of the Short Program in 1973. For example, Isabelle de Navarre was first in the Compulsories at the 1976 Winter Olympics, eleventh in the Short Program (at which point she was third overall), twelfth in the Free Skate, and still finished fifth.

    Had De Navarre been marked under the system that went into effect in the early 1980's, she would have had a pronounced drop in the rankings after both the Short Program and Free Skate, with a much lower final placement.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2011
  18. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Volchkova for a few years there. Also Sebestyen pretty much her entire career. Gedevanishvilli in her junior and early senior years as well, though it's funny because now she is generally a stronger FS skater.
     
  19. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    IIRC they were 3rd in the SP at the 97 worlds, but under 6.0 they could have won the competition if they had skated a very good LP, so that's almost like being 1st in the SP. They did drop a LOT in the LP (4 falls total; 2 by each).
     
  20. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Ksenia Makarova all last season unfortunately :(. Her team always seems to pick good SPs and crappy FSs for her.
     
  21. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

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    They were 12th in the free skate and dropped to 9th overall.

    Another really big drop was Fusar-Poli & Margaglio's at the 2006 Olympics. Since they hadn't competed in a long time, I didn't expect them to be 1st in the CD and expected them to drop. The degree of the drop (10th in the OD and 8th in the FD, 6th overall) was pretty much unprecedented in elite level ice dance though.
     
  22. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    In fact, as they should have never been in 1st after CD, that drop was more than expected ! lol
     
  23. bartek

    bartek New Member

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    I'm not very knowledgeable about Ice Dance so could you tell me why they shouldn't have been first after CD? Do you think it was only due their home advantage?
     
  24. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    It has already been discussed in 2006. He is stiff, he never push. She gains speed and he only takes speed from her. I think judges put them in 1st for some suspense in the competition (after 2002 Olympics and the fact that ice dance teams were ranked the same from compulsories to Free dance). ;)
     
  25. floskate

    floskate Vacant

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    The SP was only worth 20% of the overall mark back then and didn't have the impact it did later on when figures were devalued further and the SP gained more importance. Hence skaters were able to totally bomb the SP and still medal if they had good figures placements to start and came back well in the free skate, even in the factored placement system of the early 1980's. See Zayak in 1982, Biellmann in '81, Poetszch in '1980, heck even Janet Lynn who went 2-12-1 to win silver in Bratislava. However there were a number of figures specialists who were noticeably sub-par in freestyle who you knew were going to drop right out of contention. Wegelius obviously and as someone mentioned, Ivanova is a great example apart from her stellar 1984-85 season where she really skated very well throughout at the 1985 Europeans (which she really should have won) and Worlds. Richard Zander is another who was always around the top after figures but disappeared without a trace afterwards.
     
  26. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't call finishing second in the SP, as Biellmann did in '81, "totally bombing" it, especially when she was only fourth in the Compulsories. :shuffle:
     
  27. floskate

    floskate Vacant

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    Sorry I should have clarified that she was very lucky to be 2nd in the SP when she popped her combo and most did not skate up to par. She was also lucky that Zayak fell in the SP in Hartford and that Witt, who won the SP was miles back in figures. Biellmann was the rightful winner overall but her SP was not stellar by any means. But I agree not the best example I could have come up with :lol: