Early prediction for mens Olympic Gold medal winner

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by chanunderrated, Jun 3, 2013.

Who will win Olympic Gold in 2014 for the mens skaters

Poll closed Feb 8, 2014.
  1. Chan

    37.7%
  2. Takahashi

    7.3%
  3. Hanyu

    14.6%
  4. Kozuka

    1.3%
  5. Ten

    5.3%
  6. Fernandez

    18.5%
  7. Plushenko

    7.3%
  8. Lysacek

    2.0%
  9. Aaron or Reynolds quad their way to gold

    2.6%
  10. someone else (yeah right)

    3.3%
  1. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    You were to pick now who would be your prediction as Olympic mens title winner. I hope it is Chan but unfortunately I have a feeling it will be overrated pretty boy Fernandez winning it, with Hanyu or Takahashi 2nd (whichever the Japanese fed chooses), Chan bronze.
     
  2. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    LOL, is Lysacek or his mother a member here? :p
     
    flutzilla1 and (deleted member) like this.
  3. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    More likely someone voting with their heart and not with their brain.
     
  4. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Patrick Chan. He has it all! He just needs to put it together better. Now he can be a mixed bag of great highs and lows and win worlds and that could carry over to the Olympics. Hopefully he will be like 2011 worlds and be really great. Or 2012 4cc. I still think he is totally on track to win. He's lost to Takahashi and Fernandez at different events but they got big problems too.
     
  5. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    Duh.
     
  6. karlon

    karlon New Member

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    Particulary, he overrated on what?
    In current mens, He is the most consistent on quad, with high quality, and he had enjoyable programs
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2013
  7. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Not sure but I doubt it will be Chan. It is unlikely he will even medal IMO. I will be surprised if a single one of Chan, Plushenko, or Lysacek is on the podium (or in Evan's case is if he in Sochi at all). The winner will be Fernandez, Hanyu, or a surprise skating lights out. The podium will also have atleast one real surprise I feel (aka someone outside of Fernandez, Hanyu, Chan, Ten, and Takahashi).
     
  8. DimaToe

    DimaToe Well-Known Member

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    Ooh, I love that name :rofl: But I raise you overrated pretty blades Chan :p

    ( ...I wonder how long before posters go :lynch: on me :shuffle: )
     
  9. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    As much as it is expected to be Chan based on past results. A canadian man has never pulled of a win at olympics. Orser got 2 silvers, Stojko got 2 silvers, Buttle got bronze. I think Patrick might do the same by not winning the gold.
     
  10. Sasha'sSpins

    Sasha'sSpins Well-Known Member

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    I'm still holding out hope for one brief, shining, golden moment from Takahashi. :D
     
  11. t.mann

    t.mann New Member

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    ITA.
    Javier is not Olympic champion material.
    Average SS, so-so artistry, not even ‘natural‘ entertaining performer (unlike Plushenko).
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2013
  12. spikydurian

    spikydurian Well-Known Member

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    Plushenko the man of steel and Lysacek, the solid rock! :respec: But I give the winning vote to Lysacek because Plushenko has too many injuries.:(
     
  13. PeterG

    PeterG Hanyuflated

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    They got big problems for sure.
     
  14. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    Probably Chan but hopefully with no falls. For some reason I can see him completely tanking at the Olympics though and the judges not "giving" it to him.
     
  15. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    I voted for Chan. He has everything to win, and I hope he will be perfect!!! I wouldn't like to see Oly Champion, who has multiple falls!!!!! And I would like to see Plushy on the podium. That would be great for the 31 y.o man, who has many and serious injuries. But I won't be sad if he can win :) .
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2013
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  16. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    Really? Chan is an overwhelming favorite, like no one else in the past (except may be Plush in 2006, but even he had to land his jumps to win). There may be a slim chance of him not winning the OGM, but not even on the podium? That's impossible. I agree that there will be one surprise on the podium, as it often happens at the Olympics.
     
  17. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Random thoughts on the subject

    1. Doesn't it feel like Chan's on the decline? A combination of deliberate technical stagnation (he feels he doesn't need to add more to his arsenal) and the lack of a technical/psychological training (again, according to his own words) has precipitated some of his worst skates in seasons. There's definitely a rising backlash to his victories/scoring that, regardless of coded/systemic changes, could work against him.

    2. Denis Ten, of course, peaked gloriously at Worlds. But I can't help feel that it was somewhat of a fluke. 60 points better than his prior season best? Nearly 40 points higher than his previous personal best? It'll be interesting to see where he goes now, but I'm not quite willing to commit to his podium chances yet. Or ever, really.

    3. The one I can rationalize my feelings with facts most easily is Javier Fernandez. He's moving up in general. He's skating better, which means he's scoring better, which means he's skating with more confidence, which is increasing his PCS, etc. He still makes costly errors, but he's gotten to that level where the judges won't hold him back. He has the second highest LP score ever. And if he does go for a two-quad SP/3 quad LP like more and more of the men seem to be trying (Aaron has mentioned it, Joubert already attempted it, ditto Reynolds) he might actually be unbeatable. More than any other guy, he seems to be closest to a sustainable (read for a season) peak.

    4. Or maybe Hanyu. Hanyu isn't closer to his peak, but if all goes well, his peak seems like it'll be higher than Fernandez. But Hanyu seems to be struggling a bit more. He had such a blazing start to his season (two World records back to back, GP silver, National title) only to decline. Even in those results we saw decline. Of course, in his previous two seasons, we saw him struggle a little in the start only to turn it on by the end. So it's a weird reversal. How much of that was adjusting to his new environment? I do feel like there's room enough for both Orser men to be on the podium, but where?

    5. If the results were democratic and FSU the voting body, is there any doubt that Takahashi would win in a walk? The most popular skater of his generation (I do consider him and Plushenko to be two different generations, fwiw), capable of real moments of genius. And a championship skater if there ever was one. Not one to take the easy way out (excepting the decision to go back to Morosov). But he's probably the farthest from his peak of the real contenders. He doesn't feel like a real number one. He's going into the next Olympics as the reigning bronze medalist, and it's hard not to feel like he might be like the last guy to go into the Olympics with that title. Entertaining skater with a long professional/choreographing career ahead of him if he wants.

    6. Plushenko. What is there to say about him? He defies belief. Missed Nagano on a fluke (Urmanov's withdrawal from 1997 Worlds meant that Russia would only have two spots and he was skating in a field where four men could make the final as they did during that Olympic season), but had been a competitive mainstay for eight more years and demonstrated he was capable of significant astonishment FIFTEEN years after his first World medal. He demonstrates a mental fortitude that most skaters cannot even approach. But while spirit is willing, what does the body say? I get why he wants to compete - he hasn't skated at home at a major event ever (WD from Moscow 2005, didn't compete in 2011. Russia didn't hold Euros during his career). Ultimately, I think the best he can do is a gold in the team event and that would be impressive and I think a worthy final bow. I don't anticipate him doing much damage in the individual event, though.

    7. Lysacek.... you know, at least Plushenko and even Wier walked-the-walk. Plushenko came back for Vancouver, won another European title in 2012, and won his billionth national title. Lysacek... notsomuch. All we've heard are the usual homilies and platitudes: he's better than ever, ready to compete, the goal is Sochi. But he hasn't competed. And I feel that the level has eclipsed what he did at his best.

    8. If someone has a Wylie moment, it could be Kozuka or Abbott (for the record, my Worlds 2013 dream podium was Kozuka-Fernandez-Abbott. You can imagine how disappointed I was that two of them didn't even make Worlds). But you just wish for Wylie moments, you don't bet on them.
     
  18. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    At this point a Paul Wylie moment for Abbott would just be making the Olympic team.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2013
  19. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Mostly a gut feeling. That gut feeling isnt based on preference and my not liking Chan btw, as I often have gut feelings I dont like, such as my gut feeling on Evan in fall 2009, which led to me even starting a thread guaranteeing Evan Lysacek the 2010 Olympic Gold in December 2009, which proved right.

    However I also think you drastically overate Chan's certainty as the winner. I would agree on paper he is still the favorite, only the slight favorite at this point IMO. He seems to clearly be on decline at this point, and I think it is increasingly clear he is now past his peak for good. That doesnt mean he isnt good enough to win, but he isnt going to get better at this point, and will probably keep declining in his final amateur season as well. His technical skills and consistency are both waning, especialy in the jumps; and his skating skills and artistry both have already peaked out as well.

    2013 was hardly a dominant season for Chan. He lost Skate Canada to Fernandez, barely made the podium at the GP final and was quite lucky to considering Fernandez was 1st in the LP to his 4th, while Takahashi won that event with as many mistakes as Chan had for once, and almost lost the LP to Reynolds at Nationals, while losing the LP handily to Ten at Worlds and his win there getting a huge boo from everyone in skating pretty much. The controversy over his victory aside though, he was super lucky at Worlds. Had Ten not doubled one of two jumps, he would have won, and this is a guy who wasnt even supposed to be top 10. Had Takahashi, Hanyu, or Fernandez done a clean short combined with an event decent long, even with some mistakes, any would have beaten Chan with how he skated at Worlds. He wont get that lucky again with a skate like that at the Olympics, that is for sure, especialy on much less friendly territory.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2013
  20. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    I presume you mean Abbott, because I think Kozuka still has a solid shot at the team.
     
  21. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I agree with pretty much this entire post (except the dream podium in #8).
     
  22. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Yes I meant Abbott, who I do not think has a good shot to make the Olympic team.
     
  23. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I think Chan is at his peak physically but not having a real coach especially technically is destroying his jumps and he's too arrogant to admit he needs help. So long as the judges keep propping him up he thinks his sham of a coach is enough to get him to the finish line. Just what the hell is he thinking? Even the greatest jumpers like Plushenko know they need a tech coach to stay sharp and on top of things.
     
  24. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think at this point it is because he knows he has less than one year of amateur competition left, and feels it isnt worth making a change just for that small space of time.
     
  25. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I don't expect him to retire after Sochi. He is young and could easily go to the 2018 Olys.
     
  26. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I fully expect him to retire after Sochi and would be shocked if he didnt. He wanted to retire after Vancouver but only didnt since he liked the Olympic experience so much, he wanted it again, and he also didnt win a medal. Especialy if he wins gold as you suggest, then I would bet my house on him retiring, but even if he doesnt I would be very surprised if he continues. BTW he would be 28 by the 2018 Olympics. That is in no way young for amateur singles skating.
     
  27. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Chan could try for 2018 but has said so many things even before Vancouver about ending his career sooner rather than later.
     
  28. immoimeme

    immoimeme my posts r modded

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    Plushenko if he's healthy.
    Javi if he's determined.
    Chan and Lysacek-I don't think they will even make the podium. Just my gut feeling.
    Edit:it is not outside the realm of possibility that D10 could win the gold medal too.
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2013
  29. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Poor Kozuka, even below Lysacek, Reynolds, and Aaron on the poll.
     
  30. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    I don't have any gut feelings, but I think the guys who won't be participating in the team event - Fernandez, Ten - arguably have an edge. They'll be nice and fresh, and hopefully at their peak, for the men's event. The US, Jpn, Rus, Can guys may all be a little bit spent.