Does Mirai Nagasu have the talent to catch/pass Mao or Yu Na?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by olympic, Jul 28, 2010.

  1. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I may be in the minority, but I feel like Mirai is at a very comparable level to Mao right now. Mao has the 3a, but apart from that, I feel like the two are pretty even, like closer than Mao is to Yuna. Also Mirai is the most promising US ladies skater right now, IMO, as Zhang and Czisny have lots of issues, Flatt is boring, Wagner and Gao need to improve skating skills a lot to contend with the top, and Zawadzki is still a question mark at this point (though her height concerns me). Mirai is the best shot for now, I like to hype Gao, but I've watched her recent programs and while she's very promising, she's not soup yet and probably needs at least another season before she has a chance at challenging the top ladies internationally.
     
  2. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    I don't think anyone is debating that fact. I'd be surprised if she doesn't win Nationals this year. I think Mirai, when she's really on, may be comparable to Mao if she remains in status quo condition. But I don't think she is if Mao regains her 2008 condition. I am talking about the Mao who's capable of doing triple-triples and triple axels. Anyways, the new UR rules benefit both of them, so we'll see what happens. Who knows, maybe this may be Mirai's year. She has a great chance to at least medal at next year's worlds. Depending on her progress, she could be a darkhorse for the gold.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2010
  3. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Mirai is comparable level to Mao yet, but she may become in the near future. She can surely beat Mao if Mao messes up, but I think if Mao goes clean and Mirai goes clean, Mao would win it. Saying that, her skating is very nice and I do agree that she seems to be the most promising US ladies skater right now. I really like her skating and wish her the best.
     
  4. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    I'm curious . . . what in your opinion is wrong/lacking with Ashley's skating skills to where she's any less in quality from Rachael, Mirai, and Alissa in skating skills? The only one from the 3 who can match her in speed is Nagasu. IMO, Wagner has much better choreography than Mirai and Rachael. Ashley also has terrific transitions from what I've seen. Ashley's entry edge can be questionable on her Lutz attempts, but so can Mirai's and Rachael's. Wagner made so much progress this past season in her PCS, which is why I'm dumbfounded that you'd bunch her with the much inferior Christina Gao as one who is lacking in skating skills.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2010
  5. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Ashley's problems certainly aren't her skating skills, they're her jumps (rotation, entry edges and two-footing).
     
  6. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ..and that may add up to a sloppy-looking performance which gets lower marks from the judges on the PCS side, too
     
  7. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    Yeah.. I was just theoretically speaking.
     
  8. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Characteristics of Skating Skills:
    • Balance and rhythmic knee action and precision of foot and placement
    • Flow and effortless glide
    • Cleanness and sureness of deep edges, steps and turns
    • Power/energy and acceleration
    • Mastery of multi directional skating
    • Mastery of one foot skating

    If the judges were to "deduct" from Ashley's PCS due to her jump issues, it would likely be seen in the Performance/Execution category, not the Skating Skills category. There's nothing wrong with Ashley's skating skills.
     
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  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Ashley gets quite low PCS internationally, I've noticed, so for some reason, the international judges don't think she's as good as the US judges think she is. I mean, she didn't break 60 points for her SP internationally all last season, and that was mainly because her PCS were always in the mid-20s. Mirai has gotten high PCS internationally and even Rachael's are usually higher than Ashley's. Czisny doesn't get great PCS internationally either but I tend to think some of that is due to her tendency to skate error-ridden freeskates. Isn't PCS mostly based on skating skills? Maybe it's her interpretation and expression that aren't so great then, idk, but she needs to figure out a way to raise her PCS if she wants to be competitive with the top internationally.
     
  10. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I should have just said the PCS score in general, that's what I meant. She is nowhere near the top ladies in terms of PCS right now (based on her scores in international competition) and in order to be competitive with those ladies, she needs to figure out a way to get her PCS up, otherwise she'll just continue to be tier 2 internationally.

    Maybe the jumps and sloppiness have something to do with her mediocre PCS, but I actually think jumping is one of her strengths, her jumps are very big and powerful.

    In terms of Mao vs. Mirai, one thing Mirai has on Mao is speed. The commentators at the Olympics mentioned speed when comparing Mao and Yuna, and they said Yuna's speed made a big different. Mirai is very fast while Mao is not, so there is one area where Mirai has an advantage over Mao. I agree though that at this point clean Mao would beat clean Mirai, although probably not by a very large margin.
     
  11. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    PCS improve when consistency improves. Ashley far too often has shot herself in the foot by skating error-filled SPs. Your PCS are shot if you can't skate clean SPs. Her lack of a stand-out senior international resume/reputation/competitive experience doesn't help her politically either.
     
  12. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not quite sure what you're getting at. For example, on the GP last season, Ashley averaged 25.94 for PCS in the short program (second behind Czisny who lead the U.S. ladies with a 26.06 average). In the free skate, Ashley was averaging 53.92 PCS (again, only second behind Alissa Czisny who was averaging 55.56). I know PCS isn't truly comparable across events, but clearly the judges have shown that they will reward her with good scores when she skates well (ditto for Czisny). Aside from Kim, Rochette, Ando, Asada and Lepisto, there weren't many skaters pulling as big of numbers PCS-wise as Ashley did.

    Powerful -- yes, but Ashley has issues with many of her jumps. The obvious flutz problems, the nervous 2-footing, and the small, UR 2A's are a few. Granted, she does have gorgeous 3F's and her 3L's are among the best in the World.

    Back to Mirai: on the GP series, she was only averaging 24.42 for PCS in the short, and 50.04 in the free skate (fourth among U.S. ladies behind Czisny, Wagner and Flatt). However, her PCS greatly improved at the Olympics and Worlds once she was "finally" considered one of the best in the U.S. (and did she ever deserve these scores, compared to the shaft she got on the GP):

    Olympics --
    SP: 26.76
    FS: 60.56 (over a 10 point jump from her GP average! And rightfully so, IMO.)

    Worlds --
    SP: 30.20
    FS: 57.04

    So, yes: Mirai can be competitive with Mao and Yu-Na, especially now since the judges seem more willing to reward her with higher PCS. Do I think she can catch them this year? No, because 1) they will both continue to pull higher PCS this season, 2) Mao's 3A gives her a large SP cushion, even if she only gets 70% of its value, and 3) though superior in this area, Mirai won't be able to make up *that* much ground on her in spins, IMO.
     
  13. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    Agree. At this point, PCS is more of an reputation score rather than a reflection of actual skating skills. And the only way to improve one's reputation is to become more consistent and build one's resume by earning medals.
    About the speed debate between Mao and Yuna; I have to say that was overblown by the commentators. Mao is not as fast as Yuna and Carolina and that has always been the case. However, this didn't seem to make such a difference when she was doing well in 2008. Speed is not the thing that made the difference. The real difference is the fact that Mao's reputation had been given a blow with her recent slump and she lost some momentum which has decidely swung toward her rival's side. In figure skating, once you gain the judges' favor, you're going to have the edge over all your competitors.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2010
  14. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Yes but all the top competitors have PCS of near or above 30 for SP and 60 for LP. Ashley may have PCS comparable to Flatt and Czisny now, but her PCS are still quite a bit lower than what Kim, Asada, Rochette, Ando, Lepisto, an on Carolina, and now Mirai regularly receive. Further, Czisny is a tier 2 skater and Flatt is only a tier 1 skater because of her dependebly high TES which make up for her PCS which are significantly lower than the top guns (the same can be said of Akiko Suzuki).

    To be competitive with the best, Ashley needs to either find a way to boost her PCS or become extremely consistent with her jumps and start doing 3-3s in competition to raise her TES enough to make up for her lower PCS (which likely would also result in higher PCS). This makes sense if you think about it, I mean Lepisto scored 114 for her double filled FS at Worlds, but that was because she got 60+ for TES. For Ashley to score 114 now, it would mean she'd need a TES score of 60+ which is quite hard to receive, because her PCS are only going to be mid 50s.
     
  15. ChibiChibi

    ChibiChibi Active Member

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    I think what Mirai needs to do at this point is to stay healthy and injury-free.
     
  16. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Did you read what I wrote? I said aside from Kim, Asada, Rochette, Ando and Lepisto, Ashley was receiving some of the highest PCS scores on the GP series. The same can be said for Alissa. Neither are ever going to match Kim, Asada or Rochette on PCS, but it's pretty clear that when they skate well, they get rewarded for their skating skills, choreography, interpretation and style.

    I fully expect Mirai's PCS to be significantly higher this season on the GP than it was last season, but she (like everyone else) is still going to need to skate well.

    ETA: ^ChibiChibi, I agree that Mirai staying injury-free is going to be the key factor for her this season. She's proven to be a bit "breakable" the past few seasons, and I hope her current injury isn't too serious.
     
  17. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    This, and:

    To answer the thread title, I think she has the talent to CHALLENGE Asada, not sure about Kim though, especially since the latter may not even be a factor past this season.

    The Olympics, as well as the Worlds SP, showed that when she's on, she can play with the big boys (girls). But when she's off, barely top 10 material if even that.

    The challenge for Nagasu, besides health, is going to be consistency and nerves. She fell victim to them at the Worlds FS. I thought she showed incredible mental toughness in situations like her '09 Nationals FS, but am not sure what happened in Torino. I predict the next season or two will be her exploration as she tries to establish herself as one of the best. This "exploration" I speak of can include Olympic-like performances as well as Worlds-like ones. But if she ever finds herself nervous to the point of being paralyzed, if she is capable of digging deep like she did that night in Cleveland, you bet she'll be a force to be reckoned with. The question we really should be asking is, is she willing to TRY? Because the past couple performances I've seen her do- including the one I saw live- she sure wasn't...and, like I said in another thread, sport waits for no one, so while she goes through this phase, you bet up-and-comers from the US and Russia will try to give her (and Asada) a run for their money.
     
  18. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

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    Mirai showed during last year's Worlds SP that she is capable of out-skating Asada. She was better in most of her elements, and it also helped that Asada's triple axel got dinged for under rotation as usual.

    With the new rules however, Asada will likely get an huge edge by receiving at least intermediate points for triple axels. Even with underrotations, she will rack up 6 points in base value which is same as a clean triple lutz, and possibly a lot more if axels are rotated. If she performs it 3 times it could add up to lots of points.

    IMO, Miari doesn't stand a chance this year.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2010
  19. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    If Mao skates like she did in last year's GP season then Mirai definitely does stand a chance. Also, I think this will be a rebuilding year for Mao, she will work a lot on her jump technique and stuff, so she might not be the most on with her jumps. But who knows, I really don't think she's that much better than Mirai at this point though, a little better yes, but not by much. IMO the gap between Kim and Asada is greater than the gap between Asada and Nagasu at this point, and yet Asada was still able to beat Kim at Worlds. Anything can happen.

    I think consistency is key for Mirai, and she doesn't even need to always skate perfectly clean, what's more important is that she avoids the kinds of near meltdowns she's had in the past. I tend to think this is possible, because remember Miki Ando pre 2007? She was a great talent but young and inconsistent. Since she won worlds in 2007, she's been pretty consistent, she doesn't always skate great but she always manages to skate well enough to place well at Worlds, win medals on the GP and qualify for the final, avoid bombing Japanese Nationals, etc. I mean this past season Miki wasn't even at her best/most exciting, and she still managed to earn 2 GP golds, silver at the GPF, 4th at Japanese Nationals when she already had her Olympic spot reserved, 5th at the Olympics, 4th at Worlds. That's pretty good and shows great consistency and the ability to control nerves. I think for Mirai this will come will age and experience, as that appears to be what did it for Ando.
     
  20. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Mirai is very good, and I'm sure she can beat Mao Asada. Not sure about YuNa Kim, because of her big GOE.
     
  21. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    She managed to earn them but she was also helped a lot by her competitors faltering during the GP series. I sympathize with Miki because I feel the only way the judges will favor her is when her competitors make mistakes. But if the others skate well, she will be sidelined as evidenced at the Olympics. This is not what I wish for Mirai's career.
     
  22. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I guess but Miki's consistently good results are worth honoring. Ever since 2006, she's not one to meltdown in competition. I also feel that if Miki skated like she did in practice in competition, then she wouldn't always be sidelined, she is fantastic in practice and then becomes a bit too reserved in competition.
     
  23. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    2006-2007 season GPF (she was ranked last in the LP) and 2007 NHK Trophy (7th in the LP with a performance marred by many falls and downgraded jumps) were meltdowns for Miki I think. She also finished last at the 2008-2009 season GPF. I would also consider her SP at this year's Worlds to be a meltdown. She of course was injured at 2008 Worlds and wasn't able to complete her LP. When Miki is on, she's really on, but when she's off, she's really off.
     
  24. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't faulty jumping affect any of the above? I mean if a jump is faulty, wouldn't it affect precision of foot and placement? flow? glide? just curious.
     
  25. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    The thing about 2006 GPF was that Miki had the stomach flu and thus popped more than half her jumps.

    We all know what happened to Miki in 2007-08...
     
  26. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    The scores that Laura Lepisto get are a joke. Please don't use her as an example...

    Anyway, I think that she's made the right stepping stone this season--and that was making the GPF and medalling at both her GP events. What she'll have to do is skate more consistent SP (that's always seemed to be her nemesis) and make a couple of World teams and do well there to increase her PCS.
     
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  27. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Her PCS must be so high for a reason, she's the reigning world bronze medalist, so I don't think she's a joke, at this point Ashley could only dream of being the world bronze medalist....


    But anyways, back to Mirai, she put herself on the map this season so all she has to do is maintain that level and she should continue to get high scores. Improvement would be great but more importantly she has to make sure she doesn't regress in terms of consistency and URs - basically she can't afford to start skating all her programs like she did in her worlds FS.
     
  28. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    Laura's PCS are so high because she has excellent speed and skating skills, decent musicality and difficult choreography and transitions. It's not a "joke".
     
  29. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    It would have been better if she completed more jumps at Worlds. :slinkaway
     
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  30. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    It's not her fault Worlds was a splatfest and that the queen of figure skating who won the FS completely botched two jumping passes during it, and the winner after the SP had a mini-meltdown in the FS, and that one of the few skaters who skated well in the FS was too far behind after skating a craptacular SP to manage to medal....