Canadian Pairs 2012

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by shutterbug, Jan 26, 2012.

  1. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Ehh, I think Phaneuf and Mt/M will be stronger skaters as a result of missing this chance in the end, to be honest. And since neither of them really earned it, I have a hard time falling behind giving it to either of them.
     
  2. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

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    Definitely agree that they'll come out stronger. MT/M have only been together 2 seasons, I believe, and I'm sure they will come ready to fight for a spot. Above it was noted they are working on a quad twist and new lifts. Should be interesting. And I hope they can keep working on the in between choreography. That was such a nice improvement this year.

    As for Cynthia, I agree she did not earn the spot to world's at Canadians, or over the season. I hope she can find her groove back with Orser.
     
  3. yfbg722

    yfbg722 Active Member

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    MT/M have been together 3 years. This was their third nationals. They placed 5th their first year together, 1st last year, 4th this year.

    I believe the quad MT mentioned working this year on in an interview was a throw, not the twist.

    Thanks to Sui/Han, maybe they'll need both lol :p
     
  4. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

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    Wow....time does fly. I had to google to find pictures from that first season. I didn't even remember what they did then.

    I love stats. So here is my analysis of international results since January last year to now, and why I think Skate Canada needs to give their heads a shake if they want even the possibility of 3 teams in London next year.

    D/R:
    4CC in 2011: 181.79
    Worlds in 2011: 173.03

    1st GP this year: 174.84 (in Canada, a hometown crowd)
    2nd GP this year: 176.62
    GPF this year: 170.43
    4CC this year: 171.76

    The 4CC results seem to be an anomoly for them. If we remove that, D/R have not improved significantly season over season, based on these results. It's all within a 3 points of last year's Worlds results. If we leave in the top score, it only makes matters worse.


    MT/M:
    4CC in 2011: 166.22
    Words in 2011: 163.17

    1st GP this year: 177.43 (in US)
    2nd GP this year: 172.04 (just barely missing the GPF)

    Based on these results, on average, MT/M have raised the game by around 10 points, which is real improvement in my mind. I have to think these results would improve further had they gone to 4CC or Worlds. Their assignments were early in the season. They are very evenly matched with D/R.


    D/W:
    1st GP this year: 158.44 (in Canada, a hometown crowd)
    2nd GP this year: 150.68
    4CC this year: 154.79

    Based on these results, and compared to the other two, regardless of the results at Nationals, I am very hard pressed to buy any argument that places this team above MT/M or D/R, or sees them as some kind of even match. Over the course of the season this year, they are about 20 points on average lower than the other teams internationally. I'm sure they will improve. But right now, this is where they are at.


    L/S:
    4CC last year: 171.73

    GP this year: 153.96
    4CC this year: 158.44

    This team has always struggled with consistency. I really like their programs this year, and I find them the most innovative of the Canadian teams, and not to mention a ton of fun, but internationally they have a habit of struggling. They had a good skate at 4CC last year. But since then they are back to some rough patches. Furthermore, it was reported she had a concussion. Yikes! Right now, I think D/W and L/S are evenly matched, but significantly behind the other 2 teams.
     
  5. flowerpower

    flowerpower Well-Known Member

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    ^
    So seemingly you are arguing that we can disregard Nationals results, and choose the Worlds team (in each discipline?) based on past international scores. Which competitions would we include, and how far back would we go?

    If that's the case, then the fact that Amelie edged out Cynthia at Nationals is irrelevant, and people should be happy that Cynthia was given the opportunity for a skate-off , since if we go back and compare their international histories over the years, we'd conclude that Cynthia has greater potential, based on past successes.
     
  6. lavenderblue

    lavenderblue Active Member

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    This season, M-T/M won bronze in two GP events, and lost the tiebreaker with D/R for that GPF berth by a matter of points. D/W finished 5th and 6th in their GP events. M-T/M had an abnormally disastrous outing of two difficult programs at Nationals. D/W had mostly clean outings of two less-difficult programs at Nationals, thereby benefiting from the implosion of the others. We're not comparing apples with apples here simply on a current-season basis, regardless of progress or otherwise from the previous year.

    I'm not predicting what will be or what would have been, nor am I putting forward an argument for or against the skate-off notion, but it strikes me as inaccurate to characterize the results at this particularly sloppy Nationals (for teams in addition to M-T/M -- it was brutal out there) as reflecting what would likely happen the other 95% of the time.
     
  7. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    Stats are fun, however.......you can't compare scores from teams, different judges, competitions and seasons (of all things) and expect to base them in any reality.

    Maybe we should put it to a vote on FSU, we can make it a poll :rofl:
     
  8. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

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    Normally Nationals should be the decider, especially when teams or skaters marks are in close, reasonable range over the course of the season. That's why I didn't understand the skate-off for ladies. Amelie has come ahead all season, and the marks have been close for awhile. There is very little impact internationally with one vs the other going to world's. Amelie won Nationals and should go to world's.

    With pairs, as the stats show, there is an average 20 point spread here. Nationals was a fluke. And there is a lot on the line for Canada numbers next year at a home world's. There are no guarantees, but your chances are much higher with MT/M. Why would you not send your best teams? I'd call this an exception to the rule for the good of future opportunities for more teams.
     
  9. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Lets use Mt/M's scores for the entire of the 2010/2011 season.

    Skate Canada: 170.92
    Skate America: 175.48
    GPF: 169.57
    4CC: 166.22
    Worlds: 163.17

    AVERAGE SCORE: 169.07

    This paints a far different picture. Firstly, their much vaunted improvement is closer to five points, not ten.

    Secondly, they peak early and go downhill - which contradicts your conclusion that at 4CC and Worlds the scores would increase. Last season, they decreased. If their performance at Nationals was anything to go by, one might be hardpressed to demonstrate how they'd improve. Moreover, this season, using the scores you posted (and even throwing in their Nationals result, which has Nationals Inflation, as usual), we see the same downhill slide.

    So, is the gamble worth it? Depends. Do you think sending Dornbush to 4CC over Armin was the right decision?
     
  10. Jenifer

    Jenifer Active Member

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    I think the situation would have been different if MT-M had finished third instead of fourth. If they had been third, it would have been justifiable to have them skate off with DW for the second worlds spot at 4CC. As fourth place finishers, MT/M did not earn the right to even compete at 4CC. To assign them there they would have had to keep L/S (who finished on the podium at 4CC last season, ahead of MT-M) at home. D/R were quite adamant about wanting to skate at 4CC. The only way to help MT-M here would be to very plainly screw over DR or LS. MT/M are a decent team, but 8th in the world/7th in GP standings isn't good/promising enough, IMO, to justify screwing over other teams with legitimate, if lesser, competition histories.
     
  11. geoskate

    geoskate Well-Known Member

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    I understand Northern Dancer's point. I think that at this point M-T/M are normally a significantly better team than D/W, and certainly the international judges think so. Furthermore, it is a strange situation to see a team that just missed the Grand Prix final not competing at Worlds.

    However, perhaps the premise that a combination of D/R and M-T/M could get three spots for next year is questionable. It's possible, but IMO not very likely. If that is true (my assumption), then the rationale for sending M-T/M rather D/W is not very pressing. On the other hand, barring disaster a team of D/R and D/W is just as likely to earn two spots as a team of D/R and M-T/M.

    Therefore I don't see why Skate Canada should have ignored their normal protocol in this case. M-T/M should be fine in terms of assignments for next year, since they should finish in the top twelve in terms of season's best and ranking. For D/W, the assignment to Worlds could help them in that regard.

    For M-T/M it could even be a positive thing if they handle it correctly. For one thing, it gives them more time to prepare for next season. Also, it gives them the experience of having a disastrous competition in a situation where the cost is not as great as (say) at a Grand Prix competition or at Worlds. If they can figure out what happened and learn how to prevent it in the future, it could end up being a very positive thing for them in the long term.
     
  12. pani

    pani Well-Known Member

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    I think M-T/M should go at WCh. Can understand, why SC send D-W. Especially afer D-W perfomance at 4CC.
     
  13. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    Isn't it too late to change the world team now?
     
  14. Subway

    Subway New Member

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    I agree. While D/W surprised me by getting a pretty good 3 twist, Skate Canada's own logic with Phaneuf versus Lacoste was pretty much that nationals was an anomoly and Phaneuf is the stronger skater with a better chance of a top ten finish at Worlds. Her best probably is better than Lacoste's best, but Phaneuf hasn't shown that she's capable of delivering her best this season. They should have sent Lacoste outright. D/W and MTM - pairs is a favorite discipline of mine and historically Jessica Dube has delivered her best performances at Canadians. Historically there have been a bunch of Canadian skaters who were the same way.

    MTMs best is capable of a top ten finish at Worlds and D/W's isn't even if the team skated better than at Canadians. And let's face it, that's unlikely to happen because Dube tends to peak at Canadians. D/W doesn't have the content for a top ten finish at Worlds, even clean. If MTM had had as little content as D/W they might have faired better at Canadians.

    It could be said Phaneuf versus Lacoste was the real blunder and respecting the podium finish at Canadians is how Skate Canada ought to have determined its World team across all disciplines. They ended up really insulting Lacoste as the message was they wanted to send anyone but her. Caetlyn Osmond they'd have sent. Phaneuf they'd have sent. But please, give us one more chance not to send Amelie! I find SC's desire to have a top ten finish in ladies sort of funny because their women's picture is so miserable what difference does it make. It's not like the great Canadian ladies will lose opportunity. Pairs is in better shape and could benefit from qualifying 3 teams at Worlds. That's something MTM is in position to help achieve, but not D/W, not even a clean D/W.
     
  15. flowerpower

    flowerpower Well-Known Member

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    I think the problem is that if you repeatedly override Nationals standing to select the Worlds team, you open up an increasingly large can of worms.

    Pretty soon skaters would become cynical about what Nationals means, and assume that World team selection is being decided behind closed doors, rather than by what is put on the ice at the national championships. The documented selection criteria do allow SC to take other competitions/considerations into account, but every time you exercise that option, you create perceptions of unfairness that can damage commitment to the sport, domestically.

    With four pairs teams (and maybe even more, next year) fighting it out for limited international spots, SC has to be careful about transparency, IMO. It might be different for feds elsewhere which pay skaters' expenses, but SC only pays a fraction of the cost, so fairness is expected by the skaters.
     
  16. flowerpower

    flowerpower Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this. Open the door a crack, the water rushes in. Pretty soon MT-M will be feeling sorry for themselves, instead of picking themselves up, learning some useful lessons and coming back stronger next year.
     
  17. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

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    Skate Canada hasn't published their criteria for choosing the World team so as to leave themselves some wiggle room for unusual circumstances. With only one woman’s spot available and two candidates who had similar results over the season, it’s not really surprising that they chose to have Amelie and Cynthia do a skate off at 4CC. Even then, I don’t think they got the definitive result they were looking for. Historically they’ve relied almost exclusively on the results from Canadians, and the skaters are well aware of this. Likely the rationale for relying on the nats results is that the competition serves as a simulation for Worlds – bring your “A” game because you’re only going to get one shot. Does this method always result in the “best” team being chosen for Worlds? Nope. The Jeff vs Ben debate from 2004 is a prime example. Ben was sent to Worlds where he tanked, and Jeff came back the next season to win a World silver medal.

    My heart goes out to MT/M. Their season wasn’t supposed to end the way it did. Based on what I saw in practice, they should have beaten L/S fairly easily and D/W very easily. But they didn’t, and that’s that about that. As I said before, Kirsten is very young, and defending a title is not easy. Actually, I felt sorry for all the medalists from 2011. They looked so tense in the warm ups that I just knew we weren’t in for a lot of good skating. Such a contrast to 2011 when everyone was so loose and having a great time. But dealing with pressure is part of the game, and it was a good learning experience for all of them. I'm expecting some terrific competition next season.
     
  18. Subway

    Subway New Member

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    I wouldn't assume MTM would feel sorry for themselves under any circumstances. That's too paternalistic an idea to keep in mind for my liking. If anything these skaters should be treated more like adults. Skate Canada said it had the Lacoste/Phaneuf 4CC skate-off because it was important to try to qualify the most women for Worlds. Cynthia's been top ten, Lacoste not. That's a reasonable calculation then - send the woman with the arguably better shot. (Even though in Cynthia's case I think it's a real stretch this season.)

    Setting aside the state of the ladies, if we take that statement as true, then it's also important to try and qualify the most pairs for Worlds. In that case, send MTM. Are they a guaranteed top ten, no, but they've done it, and at this point D/W can't do it based on their current program content even skated clean.

    Although I believe MTM should have gotten the Worlds assignment based on the rationale Skate Canada used with Phaneuf versus Lacoste, Dube/Wolfe did serve as an example to the other Canadian pairs. Their skate was a little ragged but basically clean and they did their elements. They didn't always appear comfortable and their energy flagged at the end, but it was a very "professional" outing that showed experience. Sometimes the pressure of a particular competition can feel so great it's like it's perfection or nothing when history shows basic perseverence and a workmanlike effort can get you places too. We've seen that at Olympics, not just national championships.

    Anyway, shutterbug, I basically agree with you.

    Skate Canada needs to be consistent. If the priority is the potential finish at Worlds, prioritize that across disciplines. If Canadians is absolute, then that holds no matter who ends up on the podium. If you havie one standard for one result at Canadians and another in a different discipline, you look like politics, personalities and favoritism are controlling the decisions. That's the mistake SC made this time.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2012
  19. flowerpower

    flowerpower Well-Known Member

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    Yes, exactly. I did not literally expect MT-M to feel sorry for themselves (though it might have been de-motivating if they kept hearing how they wuzrobbed of a trip to Worlds, and developed the impression they were not getting the support they deserved).

    My point was that it is easier for all skaters to remain positive and motivated when consistent approaches are taken to Worlds team decisions, as you suggest. I would have preferred SC to stick with the Nationals results in all disciplines.
     
  20. nlyoung

    nlyoung Active Member

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    D/W directly to worlds made sense as it would not have worked to send the 4th placed finishers to 4C to determine the team. I also think that had Amelie landed any jump more difficult than a 3L at nationals they would have gone with those results. She basically won the title on the strength of that jump alone. That, combined with Cynthia's new training situation, made the skate-off seem more justified. The hope was that Cynthia would have pulled herself together and delivered a stronger skate with a lutz at least, or that Amelie would have been motivated to at least attempt the harder triples...:shuffle:
     
  21. Subway

    Subway New Member

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    I wasn't advocating a skate off for MTM and D/W at 4CCs, just addressing Skate Canada's objective of qualifying the maximum number of participants at Worlds. If that's the aim, write off MTM's Canadians as an anomaly, look at their Worlds finish last season and GPS results this year and name them to the World team over D/W. D/W's 4CC's performance would have only confirmed the "wisdom" of such a decision - wisdom meaning send the team likely to place higher at Worlds.

    I'm not advocating this as the way to go, just looking at SC's goal of qualifying the most skaters for Worlds which is why they had the Lacoste/Phaneuf skate off. A 4CCs skate off isn't needed for pairs because SC already knows which team would place top ten, and MTM has had a stronger GPS than Phaneuf.

    Anyway, I hope SC agrees this wasn't handled or communicated well and does it differently next year.

    Since Kirsten is new to pairs and she and Dylan were defending national champions I thought it was short-sighted not to give them Skate Canada because Skate Canada could have been a bit of a dress rehearsal for defending their title Canadians as far as nerves and stage fright. Even Scott Moir said Canadians is nerve-wracking because of the expectations.
     
  22. mag

    mag Well-Known Member

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    I believe Amelie did land a 3lz at 4CC's.
     
  23. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

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    flowerpower's comment about transparency started me thinking that there HAD to be some sort of documentation out there regarding Skate Canada’s criteria for the World team. Went hunting and found this. Interesting, non? Especially the reference to “in no specific order”……seems they can look beyond nats results if they really want to……
     
  24. flowerpower

    flowerpower Well-Known Member

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    Yup, that's why I mentioned that the "documented selection criteria" do allow SC to take other competitions/considerations into account.

    SC's rules permit it, but IMO each time you exercise that option, perceptions of unfairness and favouritism arise, especially if the application of the criteria doesn't seem to be consistent. I'd rather they stick with Nationals results except in truly exceptional situations (e.g. a defending World medalist was injured and missed Nationals). JMO.
     
  25. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

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    Short Lawrence/Swiegers update: Paige and Rudi winding down a winning year
    Sorry to hear that they’re not keeping their LP. Usually I prefer teams to change their programs every season, but it would have been nice to see this one skated cleanly.

    A cute human-interest type article: The wonderful life of Paige and Rudi
    Sounds like it took some time to convince Paige she wanted to get into pairs. :lol: I imagine she’s pretty happy with her decision now. :)
     
  26. ~tapdancer~

    ~tapdancer~ Well-Known Member

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    Really great article on Paige and Rudi. I adore this pair and loved reading about their history. Have to admit I wish they were a couple...I saw them live at 4CC and was so impressed at how they look together (they are both quite attractive, imo) and I also liked their interaction with each other. But mostly, I love their skating...their programs are so interesting. Their expression during the "Beetlejuice" program was amazing, it reached all the way out to the audience. I also loved their LP this season and "Van Helsing" remains one of my all time favorite pair programs.

    I really wish they were going to Worlds (I find them infinitely more interesting than Dube/Wolfe or Duhamel/Radford), but I'm glad they have set their goal for Sochi and I really hope they achieve it. They've got the artistic goods, now if they can just get their technical really clean.
     
  27. fan

    fan Active Member

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    updated with split:

    Novice Pair
    Rank Competitor(s) Section SP FP Points
    1 Hayleigh Bell / Alistair Sylvester CO 39.76 78.46 118.22
    2 Dylan Conway / Dustin Sherriff-Clayton CO 37.92 67.98 105.90
    3 Marie-Laurence Bradette / Felix-Antoine Garneau-Picard QC 32.21 61.67 93.88
    4 SPLIT - Madelyn Dunley / Wesley Killing WO 32.57 58.93 91.50
    5 Jordyn Harper / Shaquille Davis CO 32.90 58.17 91.07
    6 SPLIT - Kendra Digness / Cole Vandervelden AB/NT/NU 31.65 53.31 84.96 7 Julia Mercer / Spencer Buchanan QC 28.12 56.50 84.62
    8 Jessica Landry / Sebastian M. Arcieri QC 30.10 50.39 80.49
    9 Sabrina Vigneault / Cedric Savard QC 25.29 47.27 72.56
    10 Elizabeth Swenor / Rocky Swenor
     
  28. sk8rmomma

    sk8rmomma New Member

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    Jessica Landry who placed 8th with Sebastian Arcieri in novice pairs, is also on Ice Partner Search.
     
  29. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    Local article on Michael Marinaro and Margaret Purdy after their 5th place finish at Junior Worlds: http://www.theobserver.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3495922
     
  30. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

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    Whoa, Ray Schultz is on icepartnersearch. :eek: No sign of Natasha. Anyone have more info about this split?