Canadian Pairs 2012

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by shutterbug, Jan 26, 2012.

  1. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2002
    Messages:
    1,163
    Thought we had a thread for Canadian pair news, but couldn’t find it, so here goes…….

    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: Figure skating pair head back to the drawing board

    Why am I not surprised that a Wirtz team will be trying a quad throw? Very happy to hear about the new lifts though. Hopefully none include Kirsten grabbing her blade.


    Lawrence/Swiegers: Virden's Lawrence earns bronze in pairs at nationals

    Oh Paige, more guts than brains. :( Wonder what type of “complications” she had last week and if she really should be competing……
  2. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    223
    So happy to hear that MT/M are picking themselves up, dusting themselves off, and getting back at it. They are both great ambassadors for the sport, and extremely hard workers. I feel they are just getting started. Their free program, although on one hand was a melt-down, on the other hand showed their fighting spirits. On Saturday night they were not first or second, but generally speaking they are up there with D/R, and I think those 2 teams will be battling out for top spot for a few years to come.

    Pair girls are a special class of skater, I think. Tough, personality and tons of guts. But I do worry about skating like that on a concussion. She should concentrate on getting better and taking some time off to fully heal so they can have a great season next year. And she wouldn't want to have life-long complications from pushing too hard now. I'm sure Sidney Crosby would love to be playing hockey right now, but it's more important to have a full life with good health.
  3. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2002
    Messages:
    1,163
    Hayleigh Bell/Alistair Sylvester: Sylvester to skate at worlds
    I’m so pleased to hear that these two have gotten the nod to go to Junior Worlds. They’re definitely ready for the junior ranks and this will be a great way to get them some international experience. It was such a shame that we only had two teams to send out on the JGP circuit this year. Hopefully we will have a few more for the upcoming season. In addition to Bell/Sylvester, Krystel Desjardins/Charlie Bilodeau and Shalena Rau/Phelan Simpson will likely be considered for JGP assignments. Margaret Purdy/Michael Marinaro will still be age eligible, and might spend another season on the junior circuit, depending on how they do at Junior Worlds. Dylan Conway/Dustin Sheriff-Clayton also may have an outside shot at getting an assignment if they decide to move up to Juniors.

    And it appears we have our first post-Canadians causality in the Senior ranks – it was reported in the Canadian nats forum that Tou/Penasse have likely split as Matthew Penasse is back on icepartnersearch: http://icepartnersearch.com/showbio.php?i=3873. A bit of a shame since they had a nice look on the ice, but not really surprising given the big age difference. I wonder if Matthew and Kaleigh Hole have ever had a try out. She is definitely still looking for a partner and at 6’2” he’s tall enough for her.

    MT/M will be fine. We forget that Kirsten is only 19 and hasn't really had that much experience competing under pressure. They had a great GP season, but defending a title is a tough job. Lousy timing for a melt down, but she'll learn from it. ITA that they will back and battling with D/R for the top spot next season. L/S did remarkably well considering her injury. I just hope that she's being smart and not competing against physician's advice. A concussion protocol has been introduced in hockey as a result of Crosby's injury, but AFAIK, there isn't one for figure skating. Unfortunate since we likely have as many head injuries in skating as they do in hockey.
  4. shan

    shan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2003
    Messages:
    16,737
    New lifts for M-T/M? Yay!! :cheer:
  5. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2002
    Messages:
    1,163
    As reported by Sylvia in the Canadian nats forum, Julianne Séguin & Andrew Evans also appear to be done. According to her profile on icepartnersearch, Julianne is looking for a JGP-eligible partner. Again, not a surprise given the big age gap (she just turned 15). She has oodles of potential as a pair girl, so hopefully can find a terrific age appropriate partner. There is one possible match for her on icepartnersearch, Maxime Deschamps. He is looking for a JGP-eligible partner as well, and also lives in Quebec. He was partnered briefly with Zoey Brown last season. I don’t believe they were together long enough to actually compete however. He does look quite good based on the info in his profile.

    The other team I still have some ??? about after seeing them again at nats is Natasha Purich & Ray Schultz. They’ve made some great progress on the pair stuff – really nice speed togther, the cutest little (but very clean) 3twist, a nice big throw 3lutz – but Ray’s jumps don’t seem to be coming along, and I’m not convinced he’s strong enough personality-wise for Natasha. She is totally a little dynamo, and needs a partner who’s a bit more dominant to rein her in a little. The one fella I was eyeing up for her was Dustin Sherriff-Clayton who was second in the Novice pair event with Dylan Conway. Reminds me a great deal of a young David Pelletier. He’s only 5’6” though, so if his partner outgrows him, will be looking for a girl Natasha’s size to skate with. But, according to this article coach Ravi sounds happy with P/S’s performance:
    I just hope that Ravi won’t wait too long to start looking for another partner for Natasha if Ray’s jumps don’t progress by the end of the upcoming season. She has far too much potential to be held back.
  6. fan

    fan Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2003
    Messages:
    976
    I thought I could list all of the partnerships from Novice on up - makes it easier to keep track, now that it's splitting season.

    Sr Pairs
    Senior Pair
    Rank Competitor(s) Section SP FP Points
    1 Meagan Duhamel / Eric Radford QC 60.92 129.19 190.11
    2 Jessica Dube / Sebastien Wolfe QC 60.65 110.95 171.60
    3 Paige Lawrence / Rudi Swiegers SK 58.55 110.29 168.84
    4 Kirsten Moore-Towers / Dylan Moscovitch WO 60.26 104.16 164.42
    5 Taylor Steele / Rob Schultz WO 46.88 97.45 144.33
    6 Margaret Purdy / Michael Marinaro WO 49.27 93.13 142.40
    7 Brittany Jones / Kurtis Gaskell WO 53.16 88.10 141.26
    8 Natasha Purich / Raymond Schultz AB/NT/NU 47.42 93.55 140.97
    SPLIT - 9 Julianne Séguin / Andrew Evans QC 45.82 89.77 135.59
    10 Noemie Arseneault / Simon-Pierre Côté QC 44.03 88.61 132.64
    11 Alexie Gélinas / David Struthers QC 39.79 78.34 118.13
    SPLIT - 12 Andrea Tou / Matthew Penasse CO 37.58 63.59 101.17

    Junior Pair
    Rank Competitor(s) Section SP FP Points
    1 Katherine Bobak / Ian Beharry WO 51.17 98.79 149.96
    2 Krystel Desjardins / Charlie Bilodeau QC 40.10 82.37 122.47
    3 Mary Orr / Anthony Furiano WO 40.43 79.20 119.63
    4 Shalena Rau / Phelan Simpson WO 38.82 76.75 115.57
    5 Leah Hyslop / Bob Goodwin WO 33.45 69.37 102.82
    6 Alexandra Young / Matthew Young NL 34.94 67.16 102.10
    7 Tamara Jurkiewicz / Alexander Arpin QC 32.36

    Novice Pair
    Rank Competitor(s) Section SP FP Points
    1 Hayleigh Bell / Alistair Sylvester CO 39.76 78.46 118.22
    2 Dylan Conway / Dustin Sherriff-Clayton CO 37.92 67.98 105.90
    3 Marie-Laurence Bradette / Felix-Antoine Garneau-Picard QC 32.21 61.67 93.88
    4 Madelyn Dunley / Wesley Killing WO 32.57 58.93 91.50
    5 Jordyn Harper / Shaquille Davis CO 32.90 58.17 91.07
    6 Kendra Digness / Cole Vandervelden AB/NT/NU 31.65 53.31 84.96
    7 Julia Mercer / Spencer Buchanan QC 28.12 56.50 84.62
    8 Jessica Landry / Sebastian M. Arcieri QC 30.10 50.39 80.49
    9 Sabrina Vigneault / Cedric Savard QC 25.29 47.27 72.56
    10 Elizabeth Swenor / Rocky Swenor
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2012
    Sylvia and (deleted member) like this.
  7. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    30,166
    Do you want to start a separate Canadian Dance 2012 thread and move the Dance results there? :)

    ETA: Thanks for starting a new Canadian dance thread today, fan!
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2012
  8. halffull

    halffull Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2008
    Messages:
    3,258
    Would love to see the dance and pairs split into separate threads :)

    MT/M will re-group and challenge again next year when D/R battle the nerves of "defending" their title. It's great for the sport!!!

    I hope Paige is well enough for 4CC and not pushing things too hard. Hate to see her have any long term side effects.

    Too bad Tou struggled with all her landings. She is a lovely skater. Sorry, but I've never been a fan of Penasse. He's down right creepy IMO

    Purich is a gem and needs a stronger partner for sure. Not sure Sheriff-Clayton is strong enough for her but maybe if he gets some jpg this season he'll step it up.

    Bobak/Beharry are still JPG age. Wonder what SC will do with them.
  9. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2003
    Messages:
    11,864
    No problem, as they can do both JGP and GP.
  10. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2002
    Messages:
    1,163
    Just because. :) An update on Craig Buntin’s business: Championship figure skater carves out niche with Teabean White Coffee

    :respec:

    Good question. I guess it will depend on how serious they are about taking a run at one of the spots for Sochi. Difficult to say at this point if that’s a reasonable goal or not. Doing both Jr. and Sr. GP’s might be a bit much for them if Katie is skating singles too
  11. Cant Skate

    Cant Skate Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2012
    Messages:
    143
    Hi.....I'm a long time Lurker, first time poster :) The pairs events are my favorite.....these girls are so tough and gutsy! I tend to pay attention to the younger teams as I love watching them progress and excel as they move up the ranks. I was sorry to see from the Novice ranks that Jessica Landry and Sebastian have split, she is on Ice Partner Search :( I've also heard rumour that Kendra Digness and Cole Vandervelden have split. Although neither is on IPS....and this is pure speculation, I've heard he gave up pairs entirely and she was looking for a new partner. AAARRGG! WHY DO THESE KIDS NOT STAY THE COURSE?!?!
    julieann and (deleted member) like this.
  12. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    re: Bobak/Beharry

    Dube/Davison got one of the Olympic spots in 2006 despite just being up from juniors. I wouldn't be surprised if B/B stick to juniors another year just to up their game technically as they aren't attempting SBS triples yet.
  13. fan

    fan Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2003
    Messages:
    976
    updated with split:

    Novice Pair
    Rank Competitor(s) Section SP FP Points
    1 Hayleigh Bell / Alistair Sylvester CO 39.76 78.46 118.22
    2 Dylan Conway / Dustin Sherriff-Clayton CO 37.92 67.98 105.90
    3 Marie-Laurence Bradette / Felix-Antoine Garneau-Picard QC 32.21 61.67 93.88
    4 SPLIT - Madelyn Dunley / Wesley Killing WO 32.57 58.93 91.50
    5 Jordyn Harper / Shaquille Davis CO 32.90 58.17 91.07
    6 Kendra Digness / Cole Vandervelden AB/NT/NU 31.65 53.31 84.96
    7 Julia Mercer / Spencer Buchanan QC 28.12 56.50 84.62
    8 Jessica Landry / Sebastian M. Arcieri QC 30.10 50.39 80.49
    9 Sabrina Vigneault / Cedric Savard QC 25.29 47.27 72.56
    10 Elizabeth Swenor / Rocky Swenor

    Dunley's a talented novice champion - her and Killings' behaviour toward each other in the kiss and cry was very cold. unsure if she will continue in pairs, or focus on singles.
  14. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    30,166
    Wesley Killing (age 19) is the one listed on icepartnersearch as of today. Perhaps Madelyn Dunley wants to focus on singles after winning the Novice ladies title?
  15. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2002
    Messages:
    1,163
    Orr/Furiano’s plans for next season: Oshawa's Anthony Furiano wins bronze in Moncton


    D/D were a bit younger when they started skating together. IIRC, Bryce had just turned 20 when they competed in Torino. Ian is 20 already and will be 21 for the majority of the upcoming competitive season. Time to get moving in the senior ranks, IMHO. They work on their sbs 3toes every day, according to Ian in a video interview with Debbi Wilkes at the JGPF, so hopefully they will be consistent by next season. Crossing my fingers that the sbs jumps are NOT going to be their weakness….Interestingly, they worked with a “performance development” specialist when they were putting together their programs last season: http://www.jbmentertainment.com/JBMTraining.html. Good to see this type of training included right from the beginning of their career together.
  16. flowerpower

    flowerpower Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 29, 2005
    Messages:
    1,687
    I certainly wish them well, but consistent side-by-side triples are elusive for many pairs, and we just don't know if they will get them.

    It'll be a crowded field at Nationals next year, which is great in terms of helping all the teams to raise their game.
  17. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    30,166
  18. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,226
    Why did MT&M drop so much? They did well in the GP series. Do they have a problem with the Canadian fed or did they just have a poor nationals and lost their rank?
  19. flowerpower

    flowerpower Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 29, 2005
    Messages:
    1,687
    A problem with the Canadian fed? No.

    M-T/M made a major error in the short program at Nationals, then had a disastrous long program. I expect they will bounce back next year.
  20. shutterbug

    shutterbug Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2002
    Messages:
    1,163
    Very lucky bunch of kids! Skating champs to offer tips at seminar Feb. 23
  21. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    223
    Yes, they had a very unfortunate nationals. Others had their best outing of the season. Therefore the results. That being said, I do wonder about what's going on with them and Skate Canada. It makes no sense to not send the 2 teams best positioned for success at world's. They should be going based on their season of results and International ranking. Canada would have a chance at 3 spots for 2013 at home in the pre-Olympic year. The chance of that happening right now is almost non-existent. MT/M are great ambassadors for the sport and for Canada. SC made 4CC a skate-off for the ladies. That's the very least they could do in pairs. They would have been even better to send D/R and MT/M to world's, and D/R, D/W, and L/S to 4CC. That would have been the best decision for all the skaters, their reputations long term, and potentially future world spots. So, yes, I do wonder to what's up.
  22. flowerpower

    flowerpower Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 29, 2005
    Messages:
    1,687
    I don't see anything being "up" at all, because I think any other course of action on SC's part would have brought a raft of problems of its own.

    Look at all of the angst over the ladies skate-off at 4CC. From the interviews it's clear Amelie was upset about it, Cynthia was upset about it; overall it was not a positive situation for skaters' morale. People within the sport can nurse resentments over that sort of thing for years, which isn't productive. So although SC was within their rights to ask for that skateoff, I think SC prefers to avoid departing from Nationals standings in choosing the Worlds team.

    Since D/R and MT/M (at least on paper) would have given Canada the best shot at 3 spots for 2013, I'm sure those are the two pairs SC would ideally have wanted on the Worlds team. But when a pair (MT/M) has a disastrous nationals and places fourth, I think it's very tough to name them to the World team without creating a lot of dissension.

    A skateoff (between MT/M, D/W, L/S?) at 4CC would have muddied the waters even further, unless MT/M beat the other two Canadian teams. What if L/S was the top Canadian team at 4CC, just slightly edging D/W? Plus I understand that D/R badly wanted to go to 4CC, so they would have had to be denied a spot. A huge potential mess. Not a road any fed would want to go down, IMO.
  23. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    223
    I'm not sure there would have been a big struggle if MT/M were sent to Worlds. Most reasonable people can understand that every team has a bad day at the office at some point. From a consistency perspective, MT/M have had a very good couple of years. Not always perfect, but definitely in the same league as D/R, who are also not always perfect. Both teams are on a different level than L/S and D/W. Those have been the international results. That's clear. Skate Canada is completely missing an opportunity to have 3 teams at Worlds next year, and at the same time setting up D/W for a much harder time next year internationally. Based on the 4CC results, D/W will be hard pressed to finish in the top 10 in the World. This is not a knock to D/W. They are a brand new team, he is just out of Junior, and they need some time to develop. I'm reminded of the time Cynthia Phaneuf won Canadians as a very young girl, and her coach decided to send her only to the Junior Worlds for the sake of her own development. We need some more of that thinking here. I would think that all of these teams would understand that D/R and MT/M today are best placed to earn 3 spots to Worlds, and this could benefit an additional team next year, at worlds at home. It's never guaranteed, but D/R and MT/M are the best chance right now.


    And just adding for the Amelie/Cynthia situation, there was a whole lot less data to support a skate-off for these 2. Amelie has been quite consistent over the year, and it appeared like favouritism towards Cynthia. Amelie should have gotten the spot right away based on all her results of the season. For the pairs, this was a very different situation. You had a normally very consistent team that just missed the GPF, and who normally scores well above the other 2 teams, have a melt-down at Nationals. In addition, you had 2 other teams that normally do not score well internationally have very good skates. It's Nationals that is the anomoly. So the question becomes do you make decisions based only on Nationals results, or do you take into consideration the broader needs and season results. The ladies results were not an anomoly compared to the season results, but Skate Canada still couldn't decide. The pairs results were an anomoly.
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2012
  24. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2010
    Messages:
    3,540
    At this point I think either D/W or MT/M can do really well or implode and do bad. There is no reason not to give D/W a chance they earned when the alternates are not that much better.
  25. JasperBoy

    JasperBoy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2003
    Messages:
    3,013
    Repatriate Mervin Tran
  26. CanuckSk8r

    CanuckSk8r New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2004
    Messages:
    1,197
    I'm a believer in using National placings to determine the World Team. If a skater or team has a disasterous Nationals, it's unfortunate, but part of sport. By juggling things around, based on who *may* have the best shot at placing, its just another way of trying to determine the competition on paper rather than on the ice.

    Also, if future World/Olympic Teams are determined on a compilation of past skates, where does the line get drawn? One season? Two? An Olympic cycle? The arguments would be endless. I like that Nationals is the showdown for the next level.
  27. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    223
    Here's the challenge: the alternative IS much better. D/W and MT/M are not the same by any stretch of the imagination. MT/M have some of the most powerful lifts in the world, and have proven their cred on the international stage. The degree of difficulty in their programs is substantially higher than D/W. The ONLY time MT/M have truly imploded to finish behind D/W or L/S is at Nationals this year. They just missed the GPF. Generally they are very consistent - not perfect, but consistent. I really like D (don't know much about him), and I really think this is a horrible decision for them to have to skate at the international level before they are ready for prime time. They just are not yet ready for prime time. They need some space and time away from the public eye to get their elements and difficulty. 4CC was not a good outing for them. Maybe next year or the year after they will be ready. But it will be an achievement to finish in the top 10 in the world this year. That would be "really well" for them. For MT/M, really well would be top 5 in the world.

    I do understand that generally Nationals should determine who goes to worlds. That is usually what happens. In this case, that decision will have repercussions for next year, which is highly unfortunate. I would LOVE to see 3 Canadian teams at Worlds next year on London. We have no chance of that happening with the current candidates.
  28. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2010
    Messages:
    3,540
    MT/M lifts need work, there are ok but they are the same lifts not only from year to year but they are repeated in the program - absolutely no variety.

    For MT/M to finish anywhere near 5th they need to be behind S/S, V/T, P/T, K/S and B/L, not to mention, beat S/H, D/R, D/C, M/B, T/T…etc…that’s a tough sell for me. Could they do really well and beat some of these teams? Yes, but so can D/W. Can both team implode and finish out of the top 10? Yes. If MT/M were sent to worlds, over D/W especially if they skated as bad as they did in China, They would have no shot at 10th or better, don’t forget last year they were only 8th.

    It’s not like Stolbova and Klimov are being sent because Volosozhar and Trankov had a bad nationals, that would be silly but the Canadian teams are different, MT/M could have broke from the pack this year and really done well but they didn’t, D/W have.

    This year MT/M did well by getting two bronze medals in the GPF but failed to make into the GPF and had a bad nationals. Last year they got silvers on the Grand Prix and 6th in the finals but look at all the top names that were injured or couldn't compete. They were 5th at 4CC and 8th at Worlds. They did win nationals that year but they only had two pair that could have really beat them, and for one of the pair it was only their 3rd competition.

    MT/M's medals seem to be impressive until you look deeper. They really aren't as good as some make them out to be but they can get much better in time. Jessica Dube with all her pair experience earn her place against a pair who isn't any better or who don’t seem to be advancing as much as they should be.

    Dube is a 3 time national champ, won 7 GP medals, 4th in the GPF, Worlds bronze medal, silver at 4CC, 6th at the Olympics...granted she is only 1/2 of the pair and he only has silver in jr nationals but he can and should get better with her quicker than two people who haven't yet achieved all she has.

    You also have no guarantee that with MT/M you will have 3 teams in London anymore than you have with D/W.
  29. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    223
    I guess we agree to disagree on this, then. I think D/W are highly over rated. Dube is very good, and has great international experience, but as a team D/W are not ready for prime time. Their programs do not have the technical value. They cannot yet do the big tricks. There is no benefit to push them farther than they are ready.

    MT/M have made tremendous improvements since last year. To just miss GPF with a tougher crowd is testament to that. Really, it's D/R and MT/M that could change places in podium spots on any given day. Their marks internationally have been very close. And last year they finished side by side at Worlds, just not quite high enough, unfortunately. The strength and ice coverage of the lifts are tremendous. Do we want to see something new? Sure. But the quality is certainly there. Their triple twist is very high most days. They tend to struggle on some side-by-side jumps, but have also made improvements there this year. Their programs are light years ahead of last year in terms of their choreography, stroking and steps. They have had a very solid international showing.

    You are correct that there are no guarantees on the 3 spots. But we absolutely won't have 3 spots with D/W. We might have had 3 spots with MT/M. But I guess we'll never know.
  30. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2010
    Messages:
    3,540
    I don't see where D/W have been over rated, they simply haven't been skating together long enough. I think they have done well at their competitions and very well at nationals when it counted. If they can't yet do the big tricks and aren't ready for "prime time" but they got silver what does that say about MT/T who got 4th?

    I think saying MT/M showed tremendous improvements maybe stretching it a bit. Even though they won the bronze in China she still fell twice. They were two points behind D/R in making it to the GPF because of those mistakes.

    D/W did pretty well in the early season especially for a new team but a guy just up from juniors. Certainly not as good as MT/M - medal wise - but they have been together for 3 seasons more than D/W. MT/M did poorly at nationals where D/W excelled. D/W got 8th at their very first 4CC, MT/M got 9th the first time they went.

    I certainly wouldn't want to replace one team for another team who "might" have a chance at three spots. You may as well just send the team who earned the spot.
  31. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    Ehh, I think Phaneuf and Mt/M will be stronger skaters as a result of missing this chance in the end, to be honest. And since neither of them really earned it, I have a hard time falling behind giving it to either of them.
  32. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    223
    Definitely agree that they'll come out stronger. MT/M have only been together 2 seasons, I believe, and I'm sure they will come ready to fight for a spot. Above it was noted they are working on a quad twist and new lifts. Should be interesting. And I hope they can keep working on the in between choreography. That was such a nice improvement this year.

    As for Cynthia, I agree she did not earn the spot to world's at Canadians, or over the season. I hope she can find her groove back with Orser.
  33. yfbg722

    yfbg722 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2008
    Messages:
    626
    MT/M have been together 3 years. This was their third nationals. They placed 5th their first year together, 1st last year, 4th this year.

    I believe the quad MT mentioned working this year on in an interview was a throw, not the twist.

    Thanks to Sui/Han, maybe they'll need both lol :p
  34. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    223
    Wow....time does fly. I had to google to find pictures from that first season. I didn't even remember what they did then.

    I love stats. So here is my analysis of international results since January last year to now, and why I think Skate Canada needs to give their heads a shake if they want even the possibility of 3 teams in London next year.

    D/R:
    4CC in 2011: 181.79
    Worlds in 2011: 173.03

    1st GP this year: 174.84 (in Canada, a hometown crowd)
    2nd GP this year: 176.62
    GPF this year: 170.43
    4CC this year: 171.76

    The 4CC results seem to be an anomoly for them. If we remove that, D/R have not improved significantly season over season, based on these results. It's all within a 3 points of last year's Worlds results. If we leave in the top score, it only makes matters worse.


    MT/M:
    4CC in 2011: 166.22
    Words in 2011: 163.17

    1st GP this year: 177.43 (in US)
    2nd GP this year: 172.04 (just barely missing the GPF)

    Based on these results, on average, MT/M have raised the game by around 10 points, which is real improvement in my mind. I have to think these results would improve further had they gone to 4CC or Worlds. Their assignments were early in the season. They are very evenly matched with D/R.


    D/W:
    1st GP this year: 158.44 (in Canada, a hometown crowd)
    2nd GP this year: 150.68
    4CC this year: 154.79

    Based on these results, and compared to the other two, regardless of the results at Nationals, I am very hard pressed to buy any argument that places this team above MT/M or D/R, or sees them as some kind of even match. Over the course of the season this year, they are about 20 points on average lower than the other teams internationally. I'm sure they will improve. But right now, this is where they are at.


    L/S:
    4CC last year: 171.73

    GP this year: 153.96
    4CC this year: 158.44

    This team has always struggled with consistency. I really like their programs this year, and I find them the most innovative of the Canadian teams, and not to mention a ton of fun, but internationally they have a habit of struggling. They had a good skate at 4CC last year. But since then they are back to some rough patches. Furthermore, it was reported she had a concussion. Yikes! Right now, I think D/W and L/S are evenly matched, but significantly behind the other 2 teams.
  35. flowerpower

    flowerpower Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 29, 2005
    Messages:
    1,687
    ^
    So seemingly you are arguing that we can disregard Nationals results, and choose the Worlds team (in each discipline?) based on past international scores. Which competitions would we include, and how far back would we go?

    If that's the case, then the fact that Amelie edged out Cynthia at Nationals is irrelevant, and people should be happy that Cynthia was given the opportunity for a skate-off , since if we go back and compare their international histories over the years, we'd conclude that Cynthia has greater potential, based on past successes.
  36. lavenderblue

    lavenderblue Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2010
    Messages:
    473
    This season, M-T/M won bronze in two GP events, and lost the tiebreaker with D/R for that GPF berth by a matter of points. D/W finished 5th and 6th in their GP events. M-T/M had an abnormally disastrous outing of two difficult programs at Nationals. D/W had mostly clean outings of two less-difficult programs at Nationals, thereby benefiting from the implosion of the others. We're not comparing apples with apples here simply on a current-season basis, regardless of progress or otherwise from the previous year.

    I'm not predicting what will be or what would have been, nor am I putting forward an argument for or against the skate-off notion, but it strikes me as inaccurate to characterize the results at this particularly sloppy Nationals (for teams in addition to M-T/M -- it was brutal out there) as reflecting what would likely happen the other 95% of the time.
  37. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2010
    Messages:
    3,540
    Stats are fun, however.......you can't compare scores from teams, different judges, competitions and seasons (of all things) and expect to base them in any reality.

    Maybe we should put it to a vote on FSU, we can make it a poll :rofl:
  38. NorthernDancers

    NorthernDancers New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    223
    Normally Nationals should be the decider, especially when teams or skaters marks are in close, reasonable range over the course of the season. That's why I didn't understand the skate-off for ladies. Amelie has come ahead all season, and the marks have been close for awhile. There is very little impact internationally with one vs the other going to world's. Amelie won Nationals and should go to world's.

    With pairs, as the stats show, there is an average 20 point spread here. Nationals was a fluke. And there is a lot on the line for Canada numbers next year at a home world's. There are no guarantees, but your chances are much higher with MT/M. Why would you not send your best teams? I'd call this an exception to the rule for the good of future opportunities for more teams.
  39. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2011
    Messages:
    1,592
    Lets use Mt/M's scores for the entire of the 2010/2011 season.

    Skate Canada: 170.92
    Skate America: 175.48
    GPF: 169.57
    4CC: 166.22
    Worlds: 163.17

    AVERAGE SCORE: 169.07

    This paints a far different picture. Firstly, their much vaunted improvement is closer to five points, not ten.

    Secondly, they peak early and go downhill - which contradicts your conclusion that at 4CC and Worlds the scores would increase. Last season, they decreased. If their performance at Nationals was anything to go by, one might be hardpressed to demonstrate how they'd improve. Moreover, this season, using the scores you posted (and even throwing in their Nationals result, which has Nationals Inflation, as usual), we see the same downhill slide.

    So, is the gamble worth it? Depends. Do you think sending Dornbush to 4CC over Armin was the right decision?
  40. Jenifer

    Jenifer Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2002
    Messages:
    136
    I think the situation would have been different if MT-M had finished third instead of fourth. If they had been third, it would have been justifiable to have them skate off with DW for the second worlds spot at 4CC. As fourth place finishers, MT/M did not earn the right to even compete at 4CC. To assign them there they would have had to keep L/S (who finished on the podium at 4CC last season, ahead of MT-M) at home. D/R were quite adamant about wanting to skate at 4CC. The only way to help MT-M here would be to very plainly screw over DR or LS. MT/M are a decent team, but 8th in the world/7th in GP standings isn't good/promising enough, IMO, to justify screwing over other teams with legitimate, if lesser, competition histories.