Can Julia Lipnitskaya make the podium at the 2014 Olympics?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, May 8, 2013.

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Where will Julia Lipnitskaya place at the 2014 Olympics?

Poll closed Jun 8, 2013.
  1. 1st (Gold)

    1 vote(s)
    1.0%
  2. 2nd (Silver)

    1 vote(s)
    1.0%
  3. 3rd (Bronze)

    2 vote(s)
    2.0%
  4. 4th

    3 vote(s)
    3.0%
  5. 5th

    5 vote(s)
    5.1%
  6. 6th - 10th

    31 vote(s)
    31.3%
  7. Outside the top 10

    7 vote(s)
    7.1%
  8. She won't qualify for the Russian Team

    42 vote(s)
    42.4%
  9. Don't Know

    7 vote(s)
    7.1%
  1. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Away

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    New article on Julia Lipnitskaya. Reads:

    So, can Lipnitskaya improve on last seasons results during 2013/14? Can she make it onto the Russian team for the Olympics and the World Championships? If so, how much of a chance does she have of making it onto the podium at either event?
     
  2. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    She has a great chance because being age eligible she has a great chance at going to euros which may choose Olympics. Then she could surpass tuktamisheva or sotnikova. Like if tuktamisheva really bombs her Sps or if sotnikova skates like she did on the 2012 gp. So she could totally make the teams and and place top 10 in worlds and Olympics. Her big issue was really her concussion in 2012 and her attempt to add 3/3 in the lp which backfired ans she didn't get them consistent but almost won jr worlds when she went back to 2a/3t/2t and 2a/3t instead of 3lz/3t.
     
  3. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Also in the negative column for anyone who might upset the tuktamisheva sotnikova favored duo is a Russian cup final so they could be knocked out! Like leonova knocked out gosviani. So it is going to be sotnikova and tuktamisheva if they have To go through Russian nationals ,euros and Russia cup final or whetever else to get it!!
     
  4. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    I picked 6-10, but Julia may not even make the Russian Olympic team. Who would have thought even last year that Russia would have just 2 spots in the ladies field in 2014? IMO the strongest jumpers are more likely to make the team than the strongest spinner. So the odds are stacked against Julia unless Liza continues to struggle.
     
  5. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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  6. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I think making the Olympics will itself be an accomplishment for her. If she does make it, I think she can make top ten but will count on quite an unfortunate event to make top six or higher.
     
  7. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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  8. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Away

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    On a cautionary note, many are basing their opinion on the outcome of an injury ravaged season. What is clear is that Julia has enormous potential and should she benefit from an injury free off-season in which she is able to get all her training in, she could well put up a strong challenge. She is one of the most determined and nerveless skaters out there, with a never say die attitude. There are not many skaters you can say that about. Last season, those character traits worked against her as she ended up trying too hard and skated when injured and in no shape to compete. Managed properly and injury free, she could well get back into the kind of form she was in the season before last. What I hope her team works on during the off-season is her PCS. Coaches normally do that during the transition from juniors to seniors, so I think she is likely to get much improved PCS marks next season.

    I think Sotnikova is highly likely to make the Russian Olympic team. She seems to have regained her confidence, come through her growth related issues, looks far more self assured, and the momentum is with her. Hence, the fight for the 2nd spot is between Tuk and Julia. Who will get it depends upon which of the two is able to overcome their growth related issues first and the luck of the draw in terms of whether they can remain injury free. Tuk seemed to undergo another growth spurt towards the end of the 2012/13 season, and looked completely all over the place and out of shape. In terms of growth issues and injuries, it really is the luck of the draw and that is what I think it will come down to in terms of Olympic selection
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2013
  9. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Isn't Julia going to deal with growth related issues next year? She is younger than Tuk and Sot.
     
  10. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Away

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    I read somewhere that Julia had a growth spurt during the 2012/13 season and that it was that that caused the problems during the second half of the season, along with injury issues

    Will Julia have another growth spurt that will cause problems during the 2013/14 season? Who knows. However, she is only 5 days older than Tara Lipinski was at the equivalent stage of the 94-98 quad. As I said, it's the luck of the draw. She could be lucky like Tara, or she undergo body changes/growth spurts that will completely wreck her season.
     
  11. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Well Tara was fortunately enough to compete at the Olympics with a pre-pubescent body. She didn't go through puberty until after Nagano. Julia is in a transitional period right now and has grown quite a bit in the last two years but I seriously doubt if she's finish growing/filling out. If she experiences another growth spurt/weight gain next year (similar to what Liza T and Adelina went through this year) it may take her some time to adjust...and she won't have time to be off her game next year if she wants to earn one of those spots.

    I like Julia's determination and I think she has a lot of potential. I hope to see some improvement from her next season especially in the performance aspects of her skating.
     
  12. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't matter what size Liza is or what she is going through physically the short program issue had her behind Leonova when she was totally fine at 2013 worlds. And it doesn't even matter what her condition was at 2013 even if she wasn't totally fine because what caused her to lose gold at Russian nationals in 2009 and 2010 and miss GPF medals in 2011 and 2012? The short program. So no matter what physical shape Liza is in the short program of hers is JUlia's greatest hope of making the Olympic team. Julia has never had such bad short programs except like once and she was injured and pulled out of those jr nationals or something. Julia or Leonova or Makarova and viritually anyone has the potential to beat Liza in a SP. Of course the only answer is Yes of course Julia can make the team and she has to be favored over Liza except if she erases her SP problems.
     
  13. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think she will make the Russian Olympic team bumping one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva off (probably Tuktamysheva looking at them now). At the Games itself she will place in the 5th-7th range.
     
  14. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    A year ago I was thinking Lipnitskaya would challenge for gold. But with Kim and Kostner back, Asada piling up wins, and strong seasons from Suzuki, Murakami, Gold and Osmond, and Julia practically losing a year to puberty, it's hard to see a path to the podium for her this quad. I do expect (maybe hope is more accurate) she'll make the Russan team, and I voted a fifth-place finish for her, but she will have to have a really strong season for that to happen. Fingers crossed.

    I do hope her team gets two good programs for her this year.
     
  15. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    It isn't about the jumps. The jumps are a given. No one is going anywhere without solid jumps. The key though is PCS and she is the most disadvantaged in this area out of all 3 of Lip, Tuk and Sot.
     
    Ozzisk8tr and (deleted member) like this.
  16. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I think Sotnikova and Tuktymasheva will be going. If Julia does go, she will probably be somewhere from 10th-15th. Her skating is still juniorish.
     
  17. Ozzisk8tr

    Ozzisk8tr Well-Known Member

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    Agreed 100%. Love her but IMHO she is still so juniorish in her presentation. I can't see the judges placing her above 6-10th place if she makes the Olympic team (and everyone skates to their full potential).
     
  18. karlon

    karlon New Member

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    I don't think she can make podium, But I was a little surprised that "She won't qualify for the Russian Team" has got the most number of votes.

    In my opinion, Three Russian girls have similar possibility to qualify for Russian team. can not predict in particular...
    I dont think Especially she has lower chance than Tukt and Sot. So I voted for "6th - 10th"
     
  19. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    I don't think she'd be at a disadvantage to tuktamisheva who is totally at The bottom of senior pcs.
     
  20. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Tuk's PCS was 61 in the FS at Euros and her FS score there was a highest by a lady all this season before Worlds so idk. She can score really well, it's just a question of delivering. I think Julia will make the team but I think Adelina is more likely off the team than Liza, Adelina's jumps need a lot of work and she doesn't seem to be very confident and I'm not convinced her multiple bombings over the past couple seasons were due to puberty/growth changes so much as a mental block. Plus she desperately needs better programs, this season's FS was a hot mess. Adelina is very talented for sure, but I think if she makes it big, it will be later on, I think she can overcome her issues and be dominant, but not in time for next season.
     
  21. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Euros 2013 was the first competition where Liza got good pcs but the gpf and worlds was more the norm. And her pcs at those events are pretty much given to everyone and certainly would include Julia. Both sotnikova and tuktamisheva are very vulnerable to Julia and the only answer involves whose weaknesses are more likely to lead to Julia on the team. I think it's lizas short program issues rather than all sitnikovas problems like Flutz and urs and tarasova being involved in her career.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2013
  22. munow

    munow New Member

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    Lipnitskaia has even worse skating skills than Tuktamysheva, and her jump technique is pretty awful. I'm confident Tuktamysheva will outscore Lipnitskaia when they make similar errors over their programs.
     
  23. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Tuktamisheva may have good jump technique but worlds 2013 SP and GPF SP's 2011 and 2012. You see how she can't do SP's well that often with good technique. I don't think they make similar errors. Tuktamisheva's errors are usually so bad no matter how good the free skate the short programs disasters make it so that she makes competition after competition an overall failure-except euros 2013.
     
  24. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Julia was usually beating Tuktamisheva last season even when Tuktamisheva was skating well. I see no reason she couldnt do it next season. Tuk also doesnt get high GOE on jumps, Julia does the 3-3s and hard jump layouts too, Julia's spins will score much higher, she normally gets higher PCS, and Tuk is becoming very inconsistent especialy bombing the SP often. Since Sotnikova is a favorite of the Russian fed it is quite likely Tuktamisheva will be the odd women out next year for the Oly team IMO. Although I could even see Sotnikova missing it before Lipnitskaia. I really dont see Julia missing the team. I also wouldnt be surprised if Leonova made a big comeback and made the team, possibly keeping both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva off it.
     
  25. dawnie

    dawnie Active Member

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    I think Czisny has a better chance of making the Olympics than Leonova...
     
  26. TheIronLady

    TheIronLady New Member

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    Is the majority betting against her qualifying? Couldn't she beat our two divas at Euros? The 9th and 10th place finishers at worlds are threatened by anyone who scores highly next season by any international panel, right? Even Leonova--if she scored high at a GP--might get another look. There is little reason to believe Leonova will score highly ever again, but a healthy Lipnikskaia is more likely to do just that. What are the reasons you believe she can't or likely won't beat Tuktamysheva or Sotnikova for selection?
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2013
  27. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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  28. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Most votes say she wont be on the team but the majority indicates she could be on the team. People saying she can't are totally wrong. It is very possible. Why doesn't Russia just announce Adelina and Elizaveta right now as the team? LOL? Their showings in the 2012-2013 aren't so impressive and wow worthy as to make them indispensable to the Russian program. Many thought they would be totally indispensable but they were just two non-contending also rans at worlds.
     
  29. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    Olesya!!! :cheer2: :cheer2: :cheer2: :swoon:
     
  30. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    That is my feeling too. Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova might end up being the 2 women Olympic team, but they are no way a lock as some of this forum is potraying them. How are the 9th and 10th place finishers from Worlds a lock for the team, if anyone else is skating or scoring remotedly well. Furthermore it is funny this forum raves about the amazing depth of great Russian lady skaters, but if two skaters who were merely 9th and 10th at Worlds last year are almost locks for the team, then the Russian women arent deep at all, in fact their depth must frankly suck in that case.
    :lol: