Can Ilinykh and Katsalapov win Olympic Gold in 2014?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Aug 14, 2011.

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Can Ilinykh and Katsalapov win Olympic Gold in 2014?

Poll closed Sep 14, 2011.
  1. Yes

    38 vote(s)
    22.0%
  2. No

    70 vote(s)
    40.5%
  3. Too early to tell

    65 vote(s)
    37.6%
  1. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    More likely to be than P/B.

    The fact in a previous thread you dismissed my saying Savchenko & Savchenko losing to Dube & Davison and Mukhortova & Trankov at Eric Bompard was basically a fluke since they had their worst competition ever, and have never come close to losing to either team any other time; yet now are calling P/B losing to the Shibutanis a fluke because they fell, is quite amusing at least, hypocritical at best.

    P/B making costly mistakes in high profile competitions is also far from a fluke. It is pretty much their history.

    Which team came in with a high entry seed and had the benefit of weak fields with no higher ranked teams to compete against in their grand prix assignments. Which team is brand new on the scene, and has a huge margin of potential improvement still.

    How many events would Pechalat & Bourzat have won if Davis & White were in the field with them, as was the case in both of the Shibutani's grand prix events. How many years of senior competition did it take Pechalat & Bourzat to finally win a senior event gold medal. Yeah I thought so.

    Anyone could break up and get hurt. :shuffle: More likely an older team that has just had a coaching split, gone through years of frusteration, and has alot of mileage on their bodies, than a very young fresh team of siblings who medalled at their first Worlds.
     
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    P/B have not been within about 3 falls of points of D/W in a head to head competition since the 2008 Worlds. From a competitive standpoint a discussion which team is better is pointless, irregardless of style preferences from a viewing standpoint.
     
  3. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I find D&W artistic, and not just technical. In ice dance you don't win medals without having artistry. It is the most artistic/creative discipline out of the 4. D&W skating to Bollywood music was very innovative.
     
  4. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    DW had a free dance the past season that was totally void of anything other than tech. Talking about their 09/10 OD is sad. V/M were so much on the level of their OLympic season but D/W was all tech because their program was a failure. But it was better to keep that failure of a FD because changing is a sign of weakness and their tech didn't suffer.

    S/S still would have been 4th at worlds without PB fall. So that's all you need to know. I/K placed 10th in the FD!
     
  5. a56

    a56 New Member

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    I totally agree. A/P are totally in a different league than D/W. D/W are great technical skaters, but I feel a lack of chemistry, emotion, and artistry when I see these two skate.

    Two and a half years is a long time. Lots of unexpected break-ups, injuries, and retirements may happen. Expect to see some European teams really challenging V/M and D/W for the top spots. Never underestimate the power of politiking.
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2011
  6. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    1. Yeah, it's definitely more likely that V/M and D/W stick around to Sochi before P/B.

    2. That said, only D/W are "guaranteed" to be there (knock on wood). F/S intended to come back this season but an injury to her made that less likely and Scali seems to be enjoying Detroit as a coach. V/M are in the "one-season-at-a-time" mode, but I suspect both have Sochi as a goal, but if they miss it, they won't care much. P/B are the only extant team that has been to Turin (!). I suspect what matters to them is just how competitive they can be. If they medal in a close race for third in Nice, I just don't see them sticking around to be surpassed by the next generation the way the Canton quartet did for them.

    3. DomShabfan, I question your assertion that because it happened to D/W (and A/P in Nagano, K/P in Sarejevo, I might add) we can't rule it out for P/B. But I would be surprised to see them continue after Nice.

    4. I tend to think that the circumstances that allowed V/M and D/W their rise can't be replicated in the run-up to Sochi. I also wonder how much political capital is going to be expended in dance, when I suspect that Russia wants ladies and pairs more than the other two (the former because they've never had an OGM, the latter because of that epic 40 year run).

    5. How do you dump the Olympic champions anyway? Particularly if they don't skate poorly (a la Plushenko or Petrenko). I tend to think that V/M practically act as insurance for D/W. They're viewed so closely together that one would dump both, and I don't think that would realistically happen for V/M. That said, if V/M retire and the Shibs do close the gap (a la D/W on B/A, which again, circumstances)

    6. a56, I was startled to see that the gap between the Canton quartet and the rest of the teams remained virtually unchanced between 2010 Worlds and 2011 Worlds, and that change was likely to the collapsing of two events into one. If the gap doesn't close substantially by 2012 Worlds, I'd almost say game over. Which would be foolish, admittedly, but that wouldn't stop me from saying it.
     
  7. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

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    I respect Dubreuil/Lauzon and their achievements but how long did it take them to get to the top and how long V/M? So perhaps it was clever of D/L not to try to fight for the top spot in Canada back then. Just like Jeffrey Buttle versus Patrick Chan if Buttle hadn't retired.

    It's a bit different I think with B/S because they are still young and have time to grow. However, I/K strike me as having higher potential than B/S but I could be wrong.


    While I too loved A/P and still do, I have to agree with you D/W and V/M are better as technicians of ice dancing. It would be enough to compare A/P's OD of 2002 with V/M's and D/W's of 2010. I don't necessarily mean the difficulty of their elements but how those programs were executed.

    'To soon to tell' would be the right option for now IMO. Unless you have a crystal ball that helps you see easily and far into the future.:p


    Oh I never do, especially when it comes to ice dancing.;)
     
  8. Moka-Ananas

    Moka-Ananas Man's Ruin

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    My two cents: Yes, they can!
     
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  9. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    It's hard to compare skaters from the 6.0 era to the COP era. The requirements force the skaters to skate a certain way. Now they don't have have a choice of music (it MUST be upbeat, and not sad!).
     
  10. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    You can't say anything for sure, look at S/Z

    What thread? Those teams haven't been mentioned here. But S/S meltdown at TEB was quite different the P/B, Fabian's foot slipped and he fell and took his partner partner down with him, they only lost by 1/4 of a point, they lost the medal, the Shibs didn't win it, they is a difference. If he didn't fall how many points would they have won by? S/S messed up 7 out of 12 elements that was far more than a skate coming out from under you. The two programs aren't even comparable in terms of mistakes.

    So you use the weaker field arguement...typical, how many golds would the shibs have won last season if they were at the same competition as P/B? Would they have won euros?

    Dube and Davison medaled once at worlds too. And I would bet more on a team who is re-energized with a new coaching change than a team who is third best with a group whose coaches a spread quite thin already.

    I'll say it again because you seem quit thick, you have no idea what will go on this season much less in 2014.
     
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  11. sykr

    sykr Guest

    I agree here. I'm A/P uber and for me, they're the best couple ever, but that doesn't mean I can't admire D/W or I/K or any other couples. COP changed the ice dancing incredibly, so yes, now, the dances are doing the programs that are harder technicaly. A/P didn't have to do such a difficult choreographies, they still were technicaly far the best couple of their generation, they concentated on another things. I'm sur if they skated now, they would be able to do COP difficult programs. But in their era, the difficulty and not even execution wasn't what really counted...just look at 2001 worlds, they had incredibly difficult Beethowen FD and still lost to F-P/M with quitte easy dance and got such a ridiculous marks as 5,6 for technical merit.
    D/W are for me clearly one of the best couples ever. They're technicaly great but I don't agree they're weak artisticaly.I find them much more interesting than V/M, for example. Compared to A/P, they lack that incredibly chemistry between them, but there are clearly programs of theirs I will always remember, such as Bollywood OD, Samson and Dalilah,...

    As for I/K, they're very talented, but for me, appart their OD from this season, their programs aren't very good. I think anything can happen, it depends on their competitors, on their programs, on their ability to fight with the stress, but one think I'm sur...they will have a big big big political support in Sotchi:p
     
  12. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Either way, it'd be foolish to make a bet now 3 years before the Olympics.
     
  13. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Before you spread around insults you should be careful you are using first spelling and grammar while doing so. :lol:

    Also funny how nobody in this thread agrees with you on P/B, and most have noted they also expect them to retire altogether by 2012. I guess the rest of us are just in a dream World to not realize a veteran team who has never medalled at World isnt going to medal at the next Olympics 3 years away with 2 much younger teams light years beyond them, and a slew of other much younger teams also coming up. :rolleyes:
     
  14. Carmen Ovsiannikov

    Carmen Ovsiannikov New Member

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    Unfortunately it is true that P&B had/have had a history of messing up when it counted but for a while it looked as if they had overcome that. I do feel that Nathalie and Fabian are messing up less than they had in the past but sadly when they do miss it has been at a major event rather than a GP event.

    As for P&B only winning GP events because D&W weren't around, well we could use that reasoning for many a dance couple. In fact part of D&W's rise (as well as the Shubutani's and other couples) and continued top or near top rankings could be attributed to the fact that for the first time since forever the icedance field was dramatically depleted after the last Olympics. In the past there were always a number of very strong teams who were "waiting their turn" and who perhaps had been marked down because they were not the number one team in their country.

    Heck, D&W and even V&M were able to benefit from an injured Maxim Shabalin. Had Max and the Russian Federation not made the choices they did in regards to when Max returned from his first surgery, V&M (as much as I love them) probably wouldn't be the reigning Olympic champions and D&W might "only" be Olympic bronze medalists.

    That doesn't necessarily mean they shouldn't have been. Every few years it seems there is a shift in which coach and team of skaters is viewed as the top banana by the judges and at the moment it seems to be Igor's/Canton's turn. I think as a group Canton is overrated. Except for a clean (and at 100%) V&M and despite what message the judges have been sending I don't think the rest of the Canton teams are that untouchable. It's probably true that D&W can stay ahead of the current field as is except for V&M but with some finetuning I'm still (perhaps stubbornly) feeling that I&K can compete head to head with them.

    I'm not sure why there is such a rush to dismiss P&B and especially I&K. Also why assume that I&K in particular will remain the same team they were last season. It's probably a longshot for I&K to win the gold but IMHO not impossible. No one knows what the future holds.
     
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I agree Davis & White are a bit overrated by the judges at times, and perhaps all the Canton teams are to a degree at the moment, but there is no indication that will change soon. Ice dancing even today is very political. Judges develop their favorites, and it usually takes something drastic for them to fall out of love with particular teams.
     
  16. Carmen Ovsiannikov

    Carmen Ovsiannikov New Member

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    IMO some of the European/Russian teams who will/may challenge D&W and V&M can challenge even without politicking.

    It is funny that when/if European and Russian teams do well it's due to powerful politicks but the NA's continue to be seen :saint: who don't play the game. The atmosphere in icedance hasn't changed a bit; it's just accepted and ignored because NA's teams are at the top right now.

    IMO everyone plays the game, it's only that certain federations get called on it more than others.

    eta:
    a56, I wasn't directly attackly you. Just putting down what what in my head and thinking that many people still feel that way when it comes to only the Russian/European couples.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2011
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  17. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    Yes, that is the point I'm trying to make no matter if it's D/W, S/S, I/K, P/B, V/M or whoever.

    My spelling is fine, so is my grammar, if you need to insult the fact I forgot to press an 'e' at the end of a word; I'm going to let you have that.

    I don't need to have anyone else agree with me, I'm ok with that.

    :wall:
     
  18. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this. There are politics in FS- not just ice dance- and they apply to all parts of the world.
     
  19. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    Usova and Zhulin.
     
  20. zotza

    zotza Active Member

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    Exactly my thoughts.It seems that now that NA teams are on top, everything is ok and nobody ever complains about the results.It's only bad Europe that fixes results to win.

    I think it's too early to predict Sochi.I/K may win,as B/S,R/T,S/S,P/B and the usual suspects D/W and V/M can win .I don't think we'll know until that season.
    And no one can say that 21 year old teams have peaked,we can't say that even for P/B.With sports,you never know when an athlete peaks,until you see him/her peak.
    It's perfectly ok to hate a team,but in B/S's case in particular sometimes it seems that they've either slaughtered the entire family of some posters or are a danger for mankind.As I can see,I/K are becoming a public threat as well,and P/B are on their way:p.
    It's ok, don't worry,they will wait until all of the other teams have retired and get their titles at 50. Plushenko can do it, why can't they?:rofl:
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2011
  21. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    One can make the exact same argument in reverse, of course. Now that North America's doing well, all of a sudden politics is a nasty business, whereas before it was okay. I certainly remember a lot of "North Americans are whiners/don't deserve the medals" business during Nagano with B/K (of course, B/K shouldn't have been on the podium, but that's a different conversation)

    I agree. My point was more that they were the inarguable number one when they made their ascent, and it was clear the season prior that they would (technical excellence, V/M often outscoring D/L in terms of TES). To me, it's not clear that the path to Russia's number one is as easy as everyone seems to think it is, and this past season was a clear demonstration of why.

    Now, people may argue that in the future, that'll change; obviously, that's what we're debating.

    julieann, I get the gist of what you're saying, but I'd argue that you're making some wierd comments.

    1. The team is that is, at best, third best in their coaching environment just won the bronze medal. Now, that's a fluke. Fine. They just earned fourth place, in their senior debuts, at worlds. That they did so being merely third in their coaching group is incredible. That P/B didn't get the bronze despite being the number one for their coach could be interpreted as troubling.

    2. But no matter, they're at a new coach now. That coach happens to be trending towards the same situation that you decry as will negatively affect the Shibutanis chances towards Sochi - the team in Detroit is becoming larger. They have two of the top five teams at worlds and an increasingly large stable of up-and-coming talent.

    3. The Shibutanis have shown tremendous readiness this season did. They got feedback early, worked really hard on their GW sequences, and showed up at each event better than before. Pechelat/Bourzat struggled to find a good fit program, but eventually turned it on and early on the season I actually thought they might challenge D/W. By the GPF that proved for naught, of course.

    4. They might be reenergized, but we still don't know if the team of K/C et al will be a good fit for them. Remember, they left Zhulin somewhat unwillingly.

    5. The Shibutanis are younger. I mean, basically we're wondering if a team will skate for four senior seasons. Then we're wondering if a team will skate for eleven senior seasons. I know which one I'd place my bets on.

    6. Obviously, your larger point of "no one can predict the future" is still salient, but that doesn't mean dismissing points that would you lead you to one conclusion over another.
     
  22. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    I mean, I agree with you that P&B will probably retire, and I am pessimistic enough not to expect a medal for them, but it's not impossible, and has even happened under CoP, with GrushGons in 2006. I don't think there will be room for them; it's going to be V&M, D&W, and I think there will be politiking for a Russian team to take the third spot, but I can't see any of the current teams pulling up to that position. Maybe if the Russian teams suck enough, there will be a small opening for P&B.
     
  23. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

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    Well, I don't believe in P/B medalling at Worlds anymore. Bronze was in their hands already and the judges were ready to give it to them, but these two gave it away! Maybe at next Worlds they'll have a chance again, but if they weren't able to do it in Russia, at the rink they've been training for a while, then next year, with the pressure of home crowd... I don't know.
    Back to I/K: they are incredibly talented, charismatic and their basic skills are just great. They don't need politicking to beat the Shibs, P/B or even D/W, really. What they need is consistency, clean skating and improving from one competition to another. Then there would be no question about Russian number one, I'm sure. They couldn't get it with Zhulin (their perfomances at Euros were great though), maybe Morozov can help them, at least his skaters are usually well prepared, we will see
     
  24. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    ITA. I would also add "great programs" to your list of what they need. The talent and chemistry are definitely there. They have the special "it" factor that Virtue & Moir had at that age.