Can Ilinykh and Katsalapov win Olympic Gold in 2014?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Maofan7, Aug 14, 2011.

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Can Ilinykh and Katsalapov win Olympic Gold in 2014?

Poll closed Sep 14, 2011.
  1. Yes

    38 vote(s)
    22.0%
  2. No

    70 vote(s)
    40.5%
  3. Too early to tell

    65 vote(s)
    37.6%
  1. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    It's possible that V&M and D&W could decline by 2014, or could have an injury (I hope not!) that could slow them down. That would open the door for I&K and the Shibutanis and may be a few more dance teams. However, ice dance over the years has consistently gone with champions that are still around. So I think other teams may have to wait until 2018. The race may be for the Olympic bronze right now, for the younger teams.
  2. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    If you look at the Olympic podium from 2006 to 2010 it is unrecognizable. I think the same thing can happen from 2010 to 2014. I think only B/A and D/S were around in 2006 in the top 10. So predicting the podium this early is at least fun but that's about it, I think seeing if some of the couples stay together is the key.
  3. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Hope you are right. They wont be able to get a medal in Sochi if they have hiccups and then the Sochi podium might be like the world podium with Davis and White and the Shibutani's and a Canadian team or a third U.S. team.
  4. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    What's this? I completely agree with judgejudy.

    :eek: :yikes: :lol:

    V/M and D/W are both great, and obviously, the best of Ice Dance right now. I think they'll both go down as some of the best of all time.
  5. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    That's worthy of :ROFL !

    ETA: I don't mean your opinion on the topic, but that you and Judge Judy agreed on something. :lol
  6. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Innit! :D
  7. Mayra

    Mayra New Member

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    Did I spell easily wrong? :confused:

    :p
  8. ~tapdancer~

    ~tapdancer~ Well-Known Member

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    Just because the two of you don't happen to like Davis/White, I don't think it's fair to say they won't go down as ONE of the best Ice Dance couples ever. Their competitive record alone speaks for itself. They will be remembered as the first US couple to win Worlds and for US fans, that's worth remembering. They've already amassed quite a collection of gold medals and titles and they aren't even finished yet.

    There are several skaters and teams that I don't like but I would not say they aren't worthy of being recognized as one of the best especially if they have the medals and titles to support it. Our personal opinions about the skaters only matters in regards to what we ourselves personally enjoy. It is not for us to say who will remembered as "the best" or "one of the best", based on our personal opinions. That's for history to decide.
  9. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    B/A, DelShoes, DomShabs, and the Kerrs were top ten in both games.

    ARE I/K DEFINITELY Russia's number one? I mean, people talk about it as if it's a fait accompli but I can't imagine Bobrova/Soloviev or Riazanova/Tkachenko really just letting them take the top spot. Certainly, it's unlikely any of these teams retire before Sochi, the way Dubreuil/Lauzon did (allowing V/M to take the top spot in Canada without a fight). People talk about The Russian Federation politicking them hard (witness all those who had something to say about their development this season) but after all that, they still lost an FD to Khoklova/Andreev! They had to fight for their Worlds spot. Now, with three spots, that particular fight is easier, but I really wonder how much of the presumed asencion jives with reality.
  10. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Regarding the amongst best teams ever comment, ice dance hasnt even been an Olympic sport that long. As a bit more time goes on I dont know how many teams you could rate over even Davis & White (assuming most of us rate them below Virtue & Moir in historical terms and impact at this point). In my opinion atleast both teams are clearly superior to either Navka & Kostomarov or Anissina & Peizerat, the last 2 Olympic Champions and easily the 2 best teams of the entire 2000s. I loved A&P but technically they would be blown away by both V&M and D&W, even if artistically they would stand a decent chance. Both are also clearly superior to Bestiamanova & Bukin or Linichuk & Karpanasov. So other than Torvill & Dean, Klimova & Ponomarenko, and Gritschuk & Platov, who are all probably superior at this point, and maybe Pakhomova & Gorshkov and Krylova & Ovsiannikov, who is left that was better.
  11. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    B/S are at their peak now and still couldnt beat C/P to medal at the GPF or the Shibutanis at Worlds. We will have to see what happens, but I imagine the Russian federation will want to start defining a #1 to build for Sochi and it probably wont be B/S who just arent good enough if they have any real aspirations. I/K should have no problems passing B/S unless their development is really poor.
  12. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    People will ask how a team that lost a FD to K/A be any countries number one. But I/K did leave their coach who didn't really do much with them in the first senior season. In a way they had a coach but were doing a lot by themselves. And they still did pretty good. They were slaughtered by the also first year senior team Shibutani/Shibutani in every way but they actually had active and involved coaches which I/K did not have. Katsalopov does have tons and tons of problems that people think Morozov will help with but R/T can be good and even B/S who bore people so bad are still basically a good team. But clearly people are committed to solving all the problems with I/K.
  13. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    I guess I'm just not convinced that B/S are at their peak and/or can't make a fight of it.

    What about R/T?

    This season is definitely do-or-die for them (I/K, though any of the top Russian teams fit), though.
  14. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    :duh: Sorry I forgot about D/S and K/K.

    So with the theory, only four of the top ten teams who went in the 2010 games will be back in 2014 and only one will medal...in theory; who will it be? Assuming they A. don't retire and B. stay healthy. A few newbies will have to fill in the blanks. But the Olympics are still 2 1/2 years away, a lot can happen.

    1 VIRTUE Tessa / MOIR Scott
    2 DAVIS Meryl / WHITE Charlie
    3 DOMNINA Oksana / SHABALIN Maxim
    4 BELBIN Tanith / AGOSTO Benjamin
    5 FAIELLA Federica / SCALI Massimo
    6 DELOBEL Isabelle / SCHOENFELDER Olivier
    7 PECHALAT Nathalie / BOURZAT Fabian
    8 KERR Sinead / KERR John
    9 KHOKHLOVA Jana / NOVITSKI Sergei
    10 ZARETSKY Alexandra / ZARETSKY Roman
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Well safe to say Faiella & Scali and Pechalat & Bourzat arent going to medal in Sochi, if either is so bold to even still be around by then.
  16. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    And you are 'safe to say' this because :confused:

    I can see F/S flaking out at some point but P/B :huh:
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Needless to say P/B will never come even close to D/W or V/M. That would mean they would have to hold off all the younger teams, and they were already beaten by the Shibutanis at Worlds this year (yeah I know they only lost to them due to that very unfortunate fall, which I was dissapointed by as I really wanted them to get the bronze this year, but the official result is baby rookie team still beat them). They are much older than nearly all the teams behind them, and they still dont have even a World medal. Delobel & Schoenfelder, a much stronger team than P/B, couldnt even medal at the Olympics in two attempts vs a weaker field (especialy the 06 one). So all things considered a medal at the 2014 Games for P/B? More chance of Michelle Kwan coming out of retirement and winning the Olympic Gold at 33.

    If P/B get the bronze at the 2012 Worlds on home ice I would be willing to bet they happily (and wisely) take the medal and go pro. Even if they dont get that elusive medal at this years Worlds will probably be their last.

    As for F/S they were on the verge of dropping out of the Worlds top 10 this year after their career season in 2006, announced t they were retiring, and they are somehow choosing to return. Well good luck to them, they will need it.
  18. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    You're assuming D/W and V/M will be still be around in 2014.

    Actually no, S/S didn't get the bronze medal over P/B because of their superior skills. They got the medal because Fabian had an unfortunate 'fluky' fall and took his painter with him, that resulted in a two point deduction and they lost by 1/4 of a point. That fall could (and has) happened to anyone. Many teams have lost medals by less than one point for the same reason it doesn't mean they should ever be counted out.

    P/B won gold in every competition last year except a silver in the GPF, and a 4th a worlds. How did the Shibs do? Did they win a gold in anything last season? I don't think so. But they are kids, they still have time. Sure, they have time to break up and get hurt.

    :duh: + infinity
  19. Domshabfan

    Domshabfan Well-Known Member

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    D/W did not medal in world championships until they won a medal at Olympics... So this can happen again with other teams. As for P/B, there is no certainty they will medal at next Olympics, similarly there is no certainty that they won't medal at next Olympics.

    The most puzzling or your statement is D/W superior to A/P. A/P is one of the most innovative and one of teh most wonderful team to skate. D/W are good technically but not artistically.
  20. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    That's an opinion. I disagree.
  21. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    More likely to be than P/B.

    The fact in a previous thread you dismissed my saying Savchenko & Savchenko losing to Dube & Davison and Mukhortova & Trankov at Eric Bompard was basically a fluke since they had their worst competition ever, and have never come close to losing to either team any other time; yet now are calling P/B losing to the Shibutanis a fluke because they fell, is quite amusing at least, hypocritical at best.

    P/B making costly mistakes in high profile competitions is also far from a fluke. It is pretty much their history.

    Which team came in with a high entry seed and had the benefit of weak fields with no higher ranked teams to compete against in their grand prix assignments. Which team is brand new on the scene, and has a huge margin of potential improvement still.

    How many events would Pechalat & Bourzat have won if Davis & White were in the field with them, as was the case in both of the Shibutani's grand prix events. How many years of senior competition did it take Pechalat & Bourzat to finally win a senior event gold medal. Yeah I thought so.

    Anyone could break up and get hurt. :shuffle: More likely an older team that has just had a coaching split, gone through years of frusteration, and has alot of mileage on their bodies, than a very young fresh team of siblings who medalled at their first Worlds.
  22. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    P/B have not been within about 3 falls of points of D/W in a head to head competition since the 2008 Worlds. From a competitive standpoint a discussion which team is better is pointless, irregardless of style preferences from a viewing standpoint.
  23. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I find D&W artistic, and not just technical. In ice dance you don't win medals without having artistry. It is the most artistic/creative discipline out of the 4. D&W skating to Bollywood music was very innovative.
  24. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    DW had a free dance the past season that was totally void of anything other than tech. Talking about their 09/10 OD is sad. V/M were so much on the level of their OLympic season but D/W was all tech because their program was a failure. But it was better to keep that failure of a FD because changing is a sign of weakness and their tech didn't suffer.

    S/S still would have been 4th at worlds without PB fall. So that's all you need to know. I/K placed 10th in the FD!
  25. a56

    a56 New Member

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    I totally agree. A/P are totally in a different league than D/W. D/W are great technical skaters, but I feel a lack of chemistry, emotion, and artistry when I see these two skate.

    Two and a half years is a long time. Lots of unexpected break-ups, injuries, and retirements may happen. Expect to see some European teams really challenging V/M and D/W for the top spots. Never underestimate the power of politiking.
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2011
  26. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    1. Yeah, it's definitely more likely that V/M and D/W stick around to Sochi before P/B.

    2. That said, only D/W are "guaranteed" to be there (knock on wood). F/S intended to come back this season but an injury to her made that less likely and Scali seems to be enjoying Detroit as a coach. V/M are in the "one-season-at-a-time" mode, but I suspect both have Sochi as a goal, but if they miss it, they won't care much. P/B are the only extant team that has been to Turin (!). I suspect what matters to them is just how competitive they can be. If they medal in a close race for third in Nice, I just don't see them sticking around to be surpassed by the next generation the way the Canton quartet did for them.

    3. DomShabfan, I question your assertion that because it happened to D/W (and A/P in Nagano, K/P in Sarejevo, I might add) we can't rule it out for P/B. But I would be surprised to see them continue after Nice.

    4. I tend to think that the circumstances that allowed V/M and D/W their rise can't be replicated in the run-up to Sochi. I also wonder how much political capital is going to be expended in dance, when I suspect that Russia wants ladies and pairs more than the other two (the former because they've never had an OGM, the latter because of that epic 40 year run).

    5. How do you dump the Olympic champions anyway? Particularly if they don't skate poorly (a la Plushenko or Petrenko). I tend to think that V/M practically act as insurance for D/W. They're viewed so closely together that one would dump both, and I don't think that would realistically happen for V/M. That said, if V/M retire and the Shibs do close the gap (a la D/W on B/A, which again, circumstances)

    6. a56, I was startled to see that the gap between the Canton quartet and the rest of the teams remained virtually unchanced between 2010 Worlds and 2011 Worlds, and that change was likely to the collapsing of two events into one. If the gap doesn't close substantially by 2012 Worlds, I'd almost say game over. Which would be foolish, admittedly, but that wouldn't stop me from saying it.
  27. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

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    I respect Dubreuil/Lauzon and their achievements but how long did it take them to get to the top and how long V/M? So perhaps it was clever of D/L not to try to fight for the top spot in Canada back then. Just like Jeffrey Buttle versus Patrick Chan if Buttle hadn't retired.

    It's a bit different I think with B/S because they are still young and have time to grow. However, I/K strike me as having higher potential than B/S but I could be wrong.


    While I too loved A/P and still do, I have to agree with you D/W and V/M are better as technicians of ice dancing. It would be enough to compare A/P's OD of 2002 with V/M's and D/W's of 2010. I don't necessarily mean the difficulty of their elements but how those programs were executed.

    'To soon to tell' would be the right option for now IMO. Unless you have a crystal ball that helps you see easily and far into the future.:p


    Oh I never do, especially when it comes to ice dancing.;)
  28. Moka-Ananas

    Moka-Ananas Well-Known Member

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    My two cents: Yes, they can!
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  29. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    It's hard to compare skaters from the 6.0 era to the COP era. The requirements force the skaters to skate a certain way. Now they don't have have a choice of music (it MUST be upbeat, and not sad!).
  30. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    You can't say anything for sure, look at S/Z

    What thread? Those teams haven't been mentioned here. But S/S meltdown at TEB was quite different the P/B, Fabian's foot slipped and he fell and took his partner partner down with him, they only lost by 1/4 of a point, they lost the medal, the Shibs didn't win it, they is a difference. If he didn't fall how many points would they have won by? S/S messed up 7 out of 12 elements that was far more than a skate coming out from under you. The two programs aren't even comparable in terms of mistakes.

    So you use the weaker field arguement...typical, how many golds would the shibs have won last season if they were at the same competition as P/B? Would they have won euros?

    Dube and Davison medaled once at worlds too. And I would bet more on a team who is re-energized with a new coaching change than a team who is third best with a group whose coaches a spread quite thin already.

    I'll say it again because you seem quit thick, you have no idea what will go on this season much less in 2014.
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  31. sykr

    sykr Guest

    I agree here. I'm A/P uber and for me, they're the best couple ever, but that doesn't mean I can't admire D/W or I/K or any other couples. COP changed the ice dancing incredibly, so yes, now, the dances are doing the programs that are harder technicaly. A/P didn't have to do such a difficult choreographies, they still were technicaly far the best couple of their generation, they concentated on another things. I'm sur if they skated now, they would be able to do COP difficult programs. But in their era, the difficulty and not even execution wasn't what really counted...just look at 2001 worlds, they had incredibly difficult Beethowen FD and still lost to F-P/M with quitte easy dance and got such a ridiculous marks as 5,6 for technical merit.
    D/W are for me clearly one of the best couples ever. They're technicaly great but I don't agree they're weak artisticaly.I find them much more interesting than V/M, for example. Compared to A/P, they lack that incredibly chemistry between them, but there are clearly programs of theirs I will always remember, such as Bollywood OD, Samson and Dalilah,...

    As for I/K, they're very talented, but for me, appart their OD from this season, their programs aren't very good. I think anything can happen, it depends on their competitors, on their programs, on their ability to fight with the stress, but one think I'm sur...they will have a big big big political support in Sotchi:p
  32. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Either way, it'd be foolish to make a bet now 3 years before the Olympics.
  33. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Before you spread around insults you should be careful you are using first spelling and grammar while doing so. :lol:

    Also funny how nobody in this thread agrees with you on P/B, and most have noted they also expect them to retire altogether by 2012. I guess the rest of us are just in a dream World to not realize a veteran team who has never medalled at World isnt going to medal at the next Olympics 3 years away with 2 much younger teams light years beyond them, and a slew of other much younger teams also coming up. :rolleyes:
  34. Carmen Ovsiannikov

    Carmen Ovsiannikov New Member

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    Unfortunately it is true that P&B had/have had a history of messing up when it counted but for a while it looked as if they had overcome that. I do feel that Nathalie and Fabian are messing up less than they had in the past but sadly when they do miss it has been at a major event rather than a GP event.

    As for P&B only winning GP events because D&W weren't around, well we could use that reasoning for many a dance couple. In fact part of D&W's rise (as well as the Shubutani's and other couples) and continued top or near top rankings could be attributed to the fact that for the first time since forever the icedance field was dramatically depleted after the last Olympics. In the past there were always a number of very strong teams who were "waiting their turn" and who perhaps had been marked down because they were not the number one team in their country.

    Heck, D&W and even V&M were able to benefit from an injured Maxim Shabalin. Had Max and the Russian Federation not made the choices they did in regards to when Max returned from his first surgery, V&M (as much as I love them) probably wouldn't be the reigning Olympic champions and D&W might "only" be Olympic bronze medalists.

    That doesn't necessarily mean they shouldn't have been. Every few years it seems there is a shift in which coach and team of skaters is viewed as the top banana by the judges and at the moment it seems to be Igor's/Canton's turn. I think as a group Canton is overrated. Except for a clean (and at 100%) V&M and despite what message the judges have been sending I don't think the rest of the Canton teams are that untouchable. It's probably true that D&W can stay ahead of the current field as is except for V&M but with some finetuning I'm still (perhaps stubbornly) feeling that I&K can compete head to head with them.

    I'm not sure why there is such a rush to dismiss P&B and especially I&K. Also why assume that I&K in particular will remain the same team they were last season. It's probably a longshot for I&K to win the gold but IMHO not impossible. No one knows what the future holds.
  35. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I agree Davis & White are a bit overrated by the judges at times, and perhaps all the Canton teams are to a degree at the moment, but there is no indication that will change soon. Ice dancing even today is very political. Judges develop their favorites, and it usually takes something drastic for them to fall out of love with particular teams.
  36. Carmen Ovsiannikov

    Carmen Ovsiannikov New Member

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    IMO some of the European/Russian teams who will/may challenge D&W and V&M can challenge even without politicking.

    It is funny that when/if European and Russian teams do well it's due to powerful politicks but the NA's continue to be seen :saint: who don't play the game. The atmosphere in icedance hasn't changed a bit; it's just accepted and ignored because NA's teams are at the top right now.

    IMO everyone plays the game, it's only that certain federations get called on it more than others.

    eta:
    a56, I wasn't directly attackly you. Just putting down what what in my head and thinking that many people still feel that way when it comes to only the Russian/European couples.
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2011
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  37. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    Yes, that is the point I'm trying to make no matter if it's D/W, S/S, I/K, P/B, V/M or whoever.

    My spelling is fine, so is my grammar, if you need to insult the fact I forgot to press an 'e' at the end of a word; I'm going to let you have that.

    I don't need to have anyone else agree with me, I'm ok with that.

    :wall:
  38. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this. There are politics in FS- not just ice dance- and they apply to all parts of the world.
  39. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    Usova and Zhulin.
  40. zotza

    zotza Active Member

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    Exactly my thoughts.It seems that now that NA teams are on top, everything is ok and nobody ever complains about the results.It's only bad Europe that fixes results to win.

    I think it's too early to predict Sochi.I/K may win,as B/S,R/T,S/S,P/B and the usual suspects D/W and V/M can win .I don't think we'll know until that season.
    And no one can say that 21 year old teams have peaked,we can't say that even for P/B.With sports,you never know when an athlete peaks,until you see him/her peak.
    It's perfectly ok to hate a team,but in B/S's case in particular sometimes it seems that they've either slaughtered the entire family of some posters or are a danger for mankind.As I can see,I/K are becoming a public threat as well,and P/B are on their way:p.
    It's ok, don't worry,they will wait until all of the other teams have retired and get their titles at 50. Plushenko can do it, why can't they?:rofl:
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2011