Can Hanyu and Murakami make the world team this year & if so, who would they replace?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Marco, Oct 27, 2010.

  1. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    The current top 4 men are Takahashi, Oda, Kozuka and Hanyu.

    The current top 4 ladies are Asada, Ando, Suzuki and Murakami.

    If Hanyu and Murakami somehow rock this season, maybe even make GPF or medal at 4CCs, is it possible for them to displace their senior countrymen on the world team?

    I think Takahashi and Asada (despite recent struggles) are rather safe.

    Oda is mentally unstable at big events and Kozuka hasn't been very consistent. I think they can both be at risk. Trouble is, neither have been geeting consistent high PCS from international judges.

    Ando for some reason always gets good PCS and Suzuki mostly rotates and stands up on her jumps. I think unless someone gets injured or somehow withdraws, Murakami will have a hard time making Worlds.

    Thoughts?
  2. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    For a moment I thought this was another poll...

    I must say the Japanese men are unstoppable this year. This year it's like the US men back in 09: 6-7 men competing for three spots!


    No comments on who will be on the team but I'd say the US boys better bring their jumps to worlds... :watch:
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2010
  3. Tak

    Tak Well-Known Member

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    Of the men I'd say Oda looks the most vulnerable. I havent seen him or his programs yet, so I have no idea how good or bad his is right now, but going by his performance last year, I doubt the judges at Nationals are going to be at all inclined to hold him up. If he doesnt deliver 2 solid programs and Hanyu does, my guess is Hanyu will be on the team.

    The same is not true with the ladies however. Apart from injury, I dont see any way Murakami will make the team. Miki looked great in exhibitions, so did Suzuki. And I just dont see any way the JSF would leave the reigning World Champion off the team - in spite of her terrible debut. I just dont see it happening.
  4. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I agree Kozuka and Oda are both vurnerable to being bumped by Hanya possibly. Of the two I would say Oda is the more vurnerable. That said I am guessing the current trio remains in tact for this year.

    For the women I see Suzuki in great danger to be bumped by Murakami. In fact I am predicting it to happen. Suzuki is probably the most overrated skater on this forum. People talk about her like she is so great but really she is just a good and pretty consistent journeywomen who had a good year last year at the right time. She will never be a medal contender at the World level, Murakami has more chance of challenging for a World medal this year if the women stay this inconsistent than Suzuki ever would. They will want to send Asada, Ando, and Murakami to Worlds this year to see how they all compare. Asada has become unpredictable, Ando is past her prime but still doing respectably up to now, and Murakami is the future along with Asada.

    Hanyu could bump Kozuka or Oda, especialy Oda, but I predict he wont this year. Murakami will make the World team and Suzuki will be off. My predictions.
  5. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Particularly given the influence of endorsements, which Mao has in spades, and which seem to carry some weight. But as you say, injuries happen.

    I'm also curious to see if Mao and Miki both continue to compete this entire quadrennial. It is a long haul between now and Sochi.

    The nice thing for Japan is that pretty much no matter which three men or ladies they send, they're going to earn three spots for the following worlds. I don't think that there is another country where that is such a certainty.
  6. AliasJohnDoe

    AliasJohnDoe Spin Alissa Spin!!!

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    Don't forget about Tatsuki Machida. He won 2010 Nebelhorn with a score of 221.22.
  7. maclou

    maclou Member

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    I see them wanting to keep Hanyu and Murakami off of the world team and sending them to junior worlds again instead. Their juniors aren't particularly strong this year but they'll probably want to keep the spots they have for next year's JGP. I'd even say that Machida has a better chance of making the world team than Yuzuru does.

    However as for who would be bumped if someone new did make the team, for the guys I'd have to go with Kozuka. Other than Worlds (and kind of the Olympics but where he placed wasn't SO bad) Oda had a great season last year, much better than Kozuka and as for comps this season so far Oda had a bad showing in his SP at regionals but he did well in his long program and from the practice video I've seen his jumps look as good as ever. For the ladies I'd go with Akiko, not because I think she's overrated (not at all!) but just because she's not Mao or Miki and doesn't quite get the PCS she should.
  8. midori

    midori Well-Known Member

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    Machida is a wonderful skater I hope he can go to Worlds next march. (The problem is I also want others to go to Worlds)

    Also, do not count out Takahito Mura, who has 4t-3t along with huge 3a!

    Seriously, we need 6 slots for Japanese men at Worlds.
  9. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Suzuki and Ando had held off their big tricks last season because of the stricter calling and the much reduced value of downgraded combos.

    Now that underrotated combos still get 70%, I bet Suzuki and Ando will unleash the big combos again. (Suzuki with 3flip3toe or 3loop3toe and Ando with 3lutz3loop and both have 2axel3toes)

    Murakami would have to earn her way up on PCS.

    As an aside, I can see them leaving a reigning world champion off the world team. They left Suguri off the team in 2007 when she was a reigning silver medalist, won silvers in both her GPs and made GPF, and at that point was Japan's only world medalist entering Worlds in Japan.

    Asada ofcourse is a reigning champion, but she is also bombing her GPs for a second straight second and this time with deadly pops. If she bombs Nationals too, I can see the JFed considering leaving her off. But then as some suggested, she might just pull through and make the team with all her endorsements and Worlds being in Japan etc. Also, she tends to peak later in the season anyway so this point may be moot.
  10. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    And while Machida and Mura are both wonderful skaters too with big tricks, JFed is clearly trying to promote Hanyu as their next star.

    The point about wanting Hanyu and Murakami to return to Junior Worlds for JGP spots next season is a valid one. JFed will have all the reasons in the world to lowball/ control their PCS.

    Politically, I can see JFed viewing Oda as someone passed his peak and Kozuka as someone yet to peak. No matter how clean he was at the GPs, Oda did almost always have trouble at the big comps.
  11. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    Machida is actually Japans #4. He beat soundly Hanyu at Nationals and has received higher scores internationally so far. I think he has equal chances as Hanyu to overtake any of Oda or Kozuka. He has a shot of podium this week at SkateCanada, if he does it will certainly solidify his position.

    Japanese nationals is gonna be so nail bitting to watch ....
  12. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Suguri in 2007 is not the same as Asada this year. Everyone knew Suguri wasnt a real contender for the 2007 Worlds, Asada and Ando were their true threats. So it wasnt a big deal that Nakano went instead of her as the 3rd Japanese women after skating better than Fumie at Nationals. No matter how bad Asada skates throughout the season she is still a major threat to win Worlds this year, only Kim at her best can shut out Asada at her best from winning.
  13. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Does Machida have a quad? I don't like him nearly as much as I do Hanyu with the wonderful quad and 3axel. Hanyu's skating looks much more stylish (to me anyways).
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2010
  14. Hedwig

    Hedwig Rarely here anymore but I try to be better!

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    I think Hanyu has a much better long term prospect. I was at Nebelhorn and while I appreciated Machida very much my money would be on Hanyu long term.
  15. MikiAndoFan#1

    MikiAndoFan#1 Well-Known Member

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    I think Yuzuru doesn't have a chance. In my opinion, the three spots for the men are already filled. I have to agree with judgejudy27 regarding Kanako. I think she has a chance of beating Akiko, but only if Akiko doesn't skate clean and Kanako does. We'll see!

    :cheer2:

    Yes. He did one at Nebelhorn Trophy this year.

    :)
  16. NMURA

    NMURA Member

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    I don't think Murakami is needed for Jr worlds. As long as she can't do the 3loop consistently, she won't be much help. Losing badly against Russian girls doesn't help her reputation in the senior as well. If Murakami takes one spot, probably Shoji and Nishino take the rest. Even if they can maintain 3 spots, the total number of send-able skaters will be same (or less, if they failed save 3 spots).

    2011 Murakami, Shoji, Nishino
    2012 Shoji, Miyahara, Fujisawa?
    or
    2011 Shoji, Nishino, Fujisawa?
    2012 Shoji, Miyahara

    JGP spots will be OK as long as Shoji can fend off Li Zijun. That should not be a big problem.

    As for junior men, they don't need maximum spots in the first place. And even if Hanyu wins again, there's no guarantee they can save 3 spots.
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2010
  17. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    My reservation with Murakami is the same as what I had when Asada / Caroline Zhang first went senior. The flutz and the picking technique was fine by junior standards but suddenly got scrutinized much more harshly and they stagnated until they finally sacrificed consistency, time and results to rework their jumps.
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2010
  18. allezfred

    allezfred Prick Admin Staff Member

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    Not going to happen. Unless Mao is injured she'll be at Worlds.
  19. KittenInTheSun

    KittenInTheSun New Member

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    Machida is very short and Hanyu is slim and tall with longer limbs, but I can't say Hanyu is more stylish than Machida when the former always stoops while skating.

    Yes, it's a personal thing, but I just can't stand skaters with bad postures.

    Regarding the topic,
    I think Hanyu needs one or two more years to get as high PCS as Oda and Kozuka.
    I hope the best top 3 at Japanese Nationals will go to Tokyo worlds.
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2010
  20. AliasJohnDoe

    AliasJohnDoe Spin Alissa Spin!!!

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    Yes Machida has a quad. And I find Machida much more stylish than Hanyu at this point. Hanyu just needs a year or 2 to mature, as Machida did 2 years ago. Machida has great style this season and has matured nicely. Though he is tiny.

    Machida has been posting some respectable scores internationally. Machida not only won 2010 Nebelhorn with a score of 221.22. He won the silver at 2010 4CC with a score of 217.48. Adam Rippon won the gold at 4CC. But Machida did beat Reynolds, Bradley, Mroz, Sawyer and D.Ten at 4CC 2010. Which is commendable.

    Machida has been posting scores worthy of a World spot on the Japanese Men's team. I can't wait to see how he does at CoC next week. I actually felt bad for Machida waiting in the wings of such greats as Takahashi, Oda and Kozuka. Machida deserves his chance, especially with the results he's been getting this year. He has patiently waited and shown he is ready. Hanyu can wait a year or 2 like Machida has, and mature. But Japan does have a huge depth in men.
  21. JerseySlore

    JerseySlore Active Member

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    I actually thought Murakami would go on to bump off Suzuki, but she clearly has some consistency issue. Plus, apart from spin, I can't think of one thing Murakami does better.
  22. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I agree the outlook is mixed right now regarding all the skaters. However, I will say that I don't see Mao or Miki being left off the World Team this season, despite any problems they may be having, just because the JSF probably knows that they both have a good shot at winning the world title or at least a medal if they skate well. Suzuki on the other hand I don't think has a realistic shot at being World Champion this season, she may have a shot at a medal, but with the kind of PCS she tends to get, even that might be tough. So I say if anyone gets bumped by Kanako, it's Akiko, but we'll have to see how they are skating later in the season to get a better idea. Further, if Mao (or Miki) is still (starts) having huge issues come winter then maybe one of them wouldn't go to Worlds, but I still tend to think they will both be there.
  23. robinhood

    robinhood Active Member

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    I love Hanyu, as I love all the Japanese men field, but I think he needs yet another season before making to seniors. I believe, as some of you, that the real dark horse is Machida. He looks completly ready this season and I fear for Oda the most. Hanyu could go to Jr Worlds and win 2 in a row as Rippon did. That'll set him up nicely for the future
    About the ladies, I love Kanako. But I just don't trust her jumping technique. She does quite a strange thing with her left leg and she might address that before it becomes a real issue. At the moment, though, I do fear Mao's position. Even with her last year's problems the jumps weren't as catastrophic as they have been this year. She has lots to proof in the next competition. As you say, Fumie was left out of a worlds spot when she was a silver medallist, and Slutskaya didn't make the world team either in 1999 (2000?) when she was a world medalist too. Nothing is for granted in deep fields like these
  24. Hedwig

    Hedwig Rarely here anymore but I try to be better!

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    Yes. But this is Mao we are talking about. She is a huge star in Japan. I am the same opinion as Allezfred - if she is able to walk she will be on the team.
    And I am not too afraid for her. She often has a bit of a rough start in the season and this one everything is new. She is relearning everything. She will be fine come January. *knocks on wood*
  25. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    I agree. I do have a feeling that if Kanako does well this season, she'll replace Akiko. I like Akiko but Kanako has more hype.
  26. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    No way. Mao has a LOT to prove after her disaster at NHK. If she skates similarly while the others excel at nationals, she will not be named!
  27. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    Men are to Japan what Pairs are to Russia. Too few spots! Japan truly needs 6. I can see Oda being bumped for Hanyu or Machida ( or Mura, who looked lovely at NHK), if Oda implodes during the GP series.
    I HOPE Kozuka is safe as I am a fan; cannot think objectively there.
    Mao has to be safe- with the Worlds in Japan and Mao being 2- time World Champion, and a celebrity. She'll be there barring an injury.
    I am not yet panicking about Mao... she has time.
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2010
  28. allezfred

    allezfred Prick Admin Staff Member

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    Mao has nothing to prove. She is a two-time World champion and Olympic silver medallist, as well as a huge star in Japan. She is reworking her technique. Everybody knows that this takes time. It ain't going to be pretty for a while.

    But if you think a healthy Mao is not going to be named to the Worlds team, then you obviously haven't been following very closely how the JSF selects skaters. :lol:
  29. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Asada should take this season out, it's silly.

    I hope Murakami replaces Ando or Asada (Fred is making a good point but what if Asada places like 9th at Nats - still gonna be named? :/).

    I hope Hanyu replaces Oda whom I used to love in Juniors but now he's mind numbingly boring.

    I though that being freed from Morozov would change that but then I saw his music choices. :shuffle:
  30. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Personally

    I want the teams to be Asada, Suzuki and Murakami; Takahashi, Kozuka and Hanyu.

    Ando and Oda have peaked or in any event are just no longer willing to try the harder elements to break through. They of course have not had a break through artistically since what, 2005.
  31. ainouta

    ainouta Well-Known Member

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    *cough2006OlympicTeamcoughYukariwuzrobbedcough* :shuffle:

    I don't think that Murakami will bump off Suzuki. Akiko attempts more difficulty in the jumps, has more reliable technique, and also gets Nationals inflation (see: last year's results.) Besides, Akiko has more sentimental value in terms of her struggle with anorexia, etc.

    I honestly think Hanyu has better programs in the past, and I'm hoping that Kozuka will finally gain some of the JSF's favor after being a reliable performer for a couple of years.
  32. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I don't see why JSF would bump off Ando or Asada as both are world champions with a good chance at winning another title.
  33. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    The fact Ando was put on the 2006 Olympic team after coming only 6th at Nationals only illustrates allezfred's point about how the JSF pick their teams. And she wasnt even a World Champion or World medalist yet. And had finished lower than Nakano at the Grand Prix final that year too. However since she had been 4th and 6th at the previous two Worlds and was back then an up and coming star she still got the nod to go to the Olympics.

    So Mao the 2 time and reigning World Champion could probably come 8th at Nationals and still be sent.
  34. ks777

    ks777 Well-Known Member

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    I think Hanyu is better than Machida. Machida does everything ok.. nothing particularly stands out.. His jumps aren't big, his skating skills aren't nowhere near takahashi or Kozuka, he doesn't have a soft knee like Oda and his jumps doesn't flow like Hanyu.
    Machida just doesn't grab me like takahashi, kozuka and Hanyu. He is an inferior version of Oda to me.
  35. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    At 2006 they had that point system where both the 2005 and 2006 seasons were considered. Ando's consistency over the 2 GP seasons were rewarded. Nakano's surge came too late. In hindsight it was unfortunate for Olympic berth purposes that her peak years were 2006 to 2008.

    Back on Asada - I obviously understand JFed can still decide to send an Asada who came 8th at Nationals, but it's by no means guaranteed. If Asada consistently does poorly all season I can see JFed ditching her for Worlds this season.
  36. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    They wont ditch Mao for Worlds since no matter how bad she does all season she has a great shot to win Worlds if she skated her best and if Kim doesnt skate her best. They dont have any other women that can win Worlds. Miki isnt likely going to win Worlds again barring a miracle, and Murakami would do extremely well to get a bronze this year.
  37. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Murakami can replace Ando or Suzuki. But I don't think Yuzuru will replace any of the top 3 men.
  38. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Hanyu will bump Takahashi or Kozuka. He's clearly not as good as Takahashi, even if he does his best and Dai makes mistakes. Hanyu's artistry also leaves a lot to be desired, compared with Kozuka. I actually wouldn't see him beating Oda, either, unless Oda has a meltdown close to what happened at Worlds 2010.

    It might be easier for Murakami to displace someone due to the inconsistency of Asada, Ando, and Suzuki. If they look at placements alone, I don't think Asada is safe but she may be named to the team anyway due to her past results. Ando and Suzuki can either be really great or bomb, so if they happen to bomb and Murakami is good that day, she might sneak in there.
  39. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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  40. lowtherlore

    lowtherlore New Member

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    Mao will be there as long as she can manage standing on her feet. They have invested in her too much, too long. She still is the marketing focus for Japanese figure skating, which is not a minor sport there. Not sending Mao to Worlds IN TOKYO would be equivalent of admitting that it has been a big hype after all, and it would be disastrous for domestic marketing of the sport in Japan.

    IMO Mao doesn’t have intention to carry on with substantial overhaul of her jumping techniques, at least for now. It was obvious after watching her jumps at NHK. In that context, I think she has reasonable chance to regain her old mediocre form in time for Worlds. Whether it would be good for her in the long run, or whether Sato would be happy with that, is another matter.

    I think Murakami is also a near lock for appearance at Worlds, unless she bomb beyond hope at their nationals. They seem anxious to showcase her on the big stage. And their media, sponsors and Japan the people have the thing for teen fetish. If she deliver this season, she could challenge Mao’s position as the marketing queen in Japan.

    Ando has realistic chance to be on the podium. Time and again she proved she could skate relatively clean in big competitions. She could end up winning the whole thing again, if the likes of Yu-Na bomb at Worlds.

    So I think it would be Asada, Murakami and Ando for Japanese ladies.

    For men, IMO Takahashi is the only sure thing. As for Hanyu, a teen MALE figure skater is not exactly manga-theme friendly, and they could afford giving him another year or two. I think Oda, Kozuka, Machida and Hanyu will be all on even ground. I would give Oda and Kozuka some edge.
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2010