Can Dornbush win the US Men's title?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by olympic, Oct 22, 2012.

  1. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    6,976
    Considering that Evan is injured, as well as Johnny's and Jeremy's performances at Finlandia and SA respectively, could the USFSA start gravitating to Richard as the #1 US man? He is the only one recently who has shown that he can keep up with the big guns (Finlandia; Glacier Falls) and the USFSA seems to like him anyway. I know that we have to wait and see Johnny and Jeremy later in the season, and if Evan competes at all, but Jeremy's skate at SA was IMO another headcase moment. How many more of these can he afford before he starts getting dumped?

    I think the picture will become clearer after Ross skates at SC and Adam does CoC. How would they stack up against a clean Richard?
     
  2. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,258
    Richard for sure has the quad advantage over any of the guys you mentioned. Unless Ross's 4s is suddenly consistent and Adam gets his 3a AND 4S consistent, which last season neither were, then Ricky's odds are looking pretty good as clearly Jeremy and Johnny are struggling with the quad at present, and Evan's probably not coming back at this point... I guess you can't count out wildcards like Max Aaron, Armin, and Keegan Messing though, they all have quads, Max has 2 and his 4s is really consistent and strong. But at Nationals their PCS aren't likely to be as good as Richard, although they do generally get pretty good marks at Nats. It will certainly be interesting.
     
  3. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2007
    Messages:
    2,335
    Yes, he can, but not if he skates like he did last year. :shuffle: He looked great at Finlandia though. :)
     
  4. l'etoile

    l'etoile New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2010
    Messages:
    4,891
    Of course! I'm all for Ricky Dornbush bandwagon! Consistency on difficult jumps, quad and 3a, is mandatory for him to push himself to be the no1 US man and further up.
     
  5. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    30,500
    Remember that Dornbush won the FS at 2011 Nationals. His weak point has been the SP - he has yet to finish higher than 7th in the SP in his 3 Nationals at the Senior level, and this was an issue for him at the lower levels as well.

    I think Lysacek is coming back for real, so Nationals could be verrrry interesting with both him and Weir returning after 2 seasons off.
     
  6. Pretty Vegas

    Pretty Vegas Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2005
    Messages:
    2,768
    I love Ricky and would love for him to win. He definitely seems to be in a better place than last season - but last season he apparently had those boot issues that threw him off all season. His nemesis does seem to be the SP though - although he did a great one at Glacier Falls? (I think it was GF - he got over 80 in the SP) but his point total at Finlandia was definitely super impressive. I hope he can win the title. I've been such a fan of his since the 2010-2011 season. He showed such promise that year and so I hope this is the year that he can finally capitalize on it.
     
  7. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,567
    Sure Richard could win the title. Still, it's all up in the air at this point. I think Richard has a very good sp this season, which he's been skating very well, and he placed and performed great at Finlandia. I like his sp music, and perhaps the music has special meaning for him so that probably greatly helps his performance. His fp is also very good and will probably get stronger over the course of the season. Right now, I enjoy Richard's sp more.

    Lots of factors are involved, as others have mentioned: Ross and Adam have yet to debut their programs on the GP, as do Richard and Johnny. Some fans seem unclear about what Evan is going to do, but if his injury heals then he's likely to come back. He will need to compete before Nationals but I don't know where he will have the opportunity to do that. Johnny had a strong outing at Finlandia, and if he gets accustomed to his new boots and starts landing the quad cleanly, he's still competitive. As much as I hate to see what happened to Jeremy at SA (a comp which he clearly could have won), it's too early in the season to say that Jeremy can't figure things out. His programs are well-choreographed and he's such a beautiful skater. Hopefully he will be able to tackle and solve his physical and mental nerve problems (if he's fiercely motivated to do so and gets the help he needs).

    Nationals is still a horse race, unpredictable. In addition to Armin, Keegan, Max, Carriere, et al, the younger guys will also factor in (Joshua and Jason).
     
  8. merrywidow

    merrywidow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2001
    Messages:
    4,420
    I think Ricky has as good a shot at winning in '13 as any of our men & better than most. Looking forward to seeing Ross & Adam in their GP events & pulling for Max & Stephen this weekend at Coup de Nice.
     
  9. LilJen

    LilJen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2006
    Messages:
    9,318
    It could happen. Remember, though, that Jeremy was INJURED mid-FS (spinal compression) this weekend, which was a major reason for his bad LP.

    It will be interesting to see how Adam does with his new coaching situation, and Ross, who to me is sort of the "reliable Rachel" of the men's side--quite steady and consistent but kind of blah (for me, anyway).
     
  10. Jaana

    Jaana Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2002
    Messages:
    3,882
    Considering the sp and fs (although perhaps injured) skated by Abbott, it could be possible that he is taking things slower this season. It is not good to peak too early like he has done often. He only needs to kind of peak at Nationals and definetely to peak at Worlds... But he is unfortunately a headcase at major competitions like Worlds and Olympics.

    I think it could be possible for Dornbush to win the National title this season.
     
  11. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,752
    Its time for the younger guys like Dornbush to take take the reins. Jeremy, Johnny and Evan have had their time but its time for the younger generation to take over. I don't see Rippon ever winning anything big or Miner for that matter. Armin doesn't seem to be world class either. Aaron has the jumps but not much else at this point as does Keegan. It might take someone like Joshua Farris to shake things up along with Richard. At least i see potential for the future in both of them. As for Jason Brown since he still doesn't have a reliable 3axel he will probably have to wait until 2018.
     
  12. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2008
    Messages:
    1,194
    Yes, I do think Dornbush can win Nationals. Him beating Hanyu on the technical mark in the FS at Finlandia Trophy was a pretty impressive result I'd say. I know Hanyu made a couple of mistakes there but Dornbush too fell on his second quadruple jump which made him lose a few points. Also, Dornbush scored quite high on the PC considering he basically has no reputation in the eyes of the judges. Abbott usually has his best skate at Nationals but I hear he is injured and the injury might slow him down a bit. As far as Lysacek, he is a big question mark for me, I haven't seen him compete since Vancouver, so I don't know what to say about him.
     
  13. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,354
    I think he definitely can and I hope he does. Lysacek's time is over, Weir hasnt been a top skater for many years, and Abbott will forever be a headcase who cant get it together and it time to stop waiting on him.
     
  14. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,258
    I agree that Lysacek, Weir, and Abbott are skaters of the past, but where Sochi is so close, and most of the guys who appear to have real potential to go places in the future (in my opinion, Dornbush and Farris, as well as maybe Brown and Messing), USFS might favor the old guys just figuring that the young talented kids still have a shot at 2018, while for Johnny, Jeremy, and Evan, Sochi is clearly their last hope. I agree about Rippon, Miner, and Armin, they are all nice skaters but I don't see them as having the potential to be World medalists either. And their age makes it tricky, Armin is a little younger, but Adam and Ross will be bordering on getting "skater old" by 2018 and it seems like for Sochi, the USFS is better off with either going with the vets, or the young guns with a lot of potential, or a combination of both. If Dornbush skates and places well on the GP this fall that will help his case, and the fact that he's the only one at this point that's shown the technical content the US guys are gonna need to get 3 spots to the Olympics is also encouraging. Evan may indeed come back but I have doubt in his ability to land quads, same goes for Johnny, and Jeremy's quad is not yet consistent either and even his great PCS often seem to not make up enough for his TES which often dips very low. Aaron, Messing, and Farris have the jumps, Aaron especially, but need fine-tuning and my guess is USFS wants to keep them around for 2018 (Farris in particular, given that he stayed on the JGP this season) so are unlikely to send them off to Worlds and the Sochi Olympics unless they kick butt at Nationals and the veterans disappoint. Rippon, Miner, Mahbanoozadeh could upset but I don't really see it happening. Adam skated about as well at Worlds last season as he had the whole season and was 13th. Mahbanoozadeh's international PCS need a boost and he will be unlikely to get the competition experiences needed to do that. Miner, we'll see, if his 4s is consistent his odds are pretty decent, but if not, there's really nothing that particularly stands out about his skating compared to anyone else. Brown will need the 3a consistent and at least be trying a quad in his program to get consideration so that's unlikely to happen between now and Sochi, but post 2014 he could definitely be in the mix.
     
  15. dawnie

    dawnie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2004
    Messages:
    348
    I totally agree, it's about time for the younger guys to overtake the old guard. Hopefully Dornbush, Miner, Aaron, and Farris blow everyone out of the water at Nationals and we will finally see some new blood dominating.
    I would be extremely shocked to see any of Lysacek, Abbott, or Weir in Sochi and if any of them make it, what does that say about the competition? The young boys better bring it.
     
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,258
    I really wish Aaron or Farris was given SA instead of Razzano...I don't care what Nationals results say, they are clearly much better skaters, and have the potential to go places in the future. For Farris it would have been a way to give him a second GP and a skater with the technical abilities of Aaron really deserves at least one assignment. It's silly to see Aaron competing at qualifying competitions and Farris skating at JGPs where they are so clearly above most of the rest of the field. But I guess USFS will do what it wants, maybe they want to make sure Farris and Aaron stick around for Pyeongchang...
     
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,354
    What is the point of that!?! Lets all concede the obvious, the US has no real medal shot in Sochi for the men with anyone, barring a drastic and unlikely quick huge improvement by one of the youngsters. So with that in mind it is better to send skaters who could be contenders for 2018 to gain some experience, credence with the judges, and early momentum. That is more fruitful than sending Evan, Jeremy, and Johnny to the Olympics to come 8th, 10th, and 13th and wave goobye just for the sake of it. With the vets having no medal opportunity and the Olympics not deciding spots for Worlds the next year, there is no benefit to sending them over the up and comers all things equal, even if the up and comers also probably have no medal opportunity.
     
  18. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2001
    Messages:
    25,420
    IMO Ross Miner has a better chance than Dornbush, who totally unimpressed me at the last US nationals.

    If Jeremy can get over his injury, he should still be the favorite for at least the USN title.

    It's hard to say at this time what Evan and Johnny are capable of. I assume Johnny has a little more motivation to prove himself than Evan does.
     
  19. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,258
    I agree, but clearly USFS has a different agenda. Look at their host picks for SA, Lysacek and Razzano? Instead of any one of Farris, Aaron, or Messing? Mahbanoozadeh finally got assigned but only as a last minute replacement. Clearly they are more invested in skaters like Lysacek, Weir, Abbott, Rippon, and Miner compared to any of the guys I just mentioned despite being younger, stronger jumpers, and more likely to be competitive in the future. Farris's score at JGP Lake Placid, with one less step sequence, was way higher than any of the American guys at Skate America, as was Aaron's score at US Classic. So I guess what I'm saying is, here's an example of two guys who could have done very well for themselves at SA, 3rd place not being out of possibility if they skated up to the standard they have shown in some recent competitions, and yet the USFS chooses not to assign them. I think that's a pretty clear indication that USFS wants these kids to wait their turn because I guess they don't recognize the value in sending a talented youngster to Worlds and Olympics and having them place 10th, if they can send an old, past-prime veteran instead and have them also place 10th. Idk. It's dumb but I think, assuming they recognize the talent, there's a reason USFS is keeping Max Aaron and Keegan Messing out of the GP and convincing Josh Farris to stay on the JGP another season..
     
  20. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,258
    Ross may be given an edge to Dornbush due to the consistency he's shown in the past, but I feel like it's contingent upon the consistency of his 4s this season. Between the two, whoever has a more consistent quad (unless they completely self-destruct in competitions despite of this) will have the edge at Nationals. Right now, Dornbush's 4t seems more reliable than Miner's 4s, and he's trying 2 in his FS, so I'd say he's heavy edge for now, but that could change.
     
  21. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2004
    Messages:
    6,976
    But, if you looked at Dornbush at Glacier Falls and Finlandia, I would think he'd definitely have the edge unless, as Pinky said, Miner suddenly has a consistent 4S.

    I agree that if Jeremy ever went clean he'd cream the competition, but whether it's injury or in his head, it's always something that derails him from being king of the hill
     
  22. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2009
    Messages:
    7,622
    I think Dornbush can take the title this year if he puts together two clean programs and executes all his planned elements.
     
  23. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2006
    Messages:
    13,354
    He has done this at Nationals and creamed the competition and could easily do it again this year. As for the World level that window has passed, too bad as he could have had Evan's World and Olympic Golds, but he had better put it all together at a Worlds or Olympics sometime extremely soon if he even wants to eke one bronze there before retiring (the max he would ever get now even with his best effort, and even then only if certain people miss).
     
  24. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,752
    We need to send the young kids to Sochi for the experience. Forget about Weir and Evan they have both gone to two Olympics they don't need another shot. Besides look at what going to the Olympics in 2006 did for Lysacek. He was only 20 and nearly got on the podium. From that moment on he knew he could compete with anyone in the world. Kids like Farris can only get better from the Olympic experience.
     
  25. judiz

    judiz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2006
    Messages:
    3,212
    It's amazing (to me) how everyone is ready to hang Dornbush the title at Nationals based on one good skate at Finlandia, We have no idea if the Richard from Finlandia will show up at Nationals or if it will be the one from last year who finished in 13th place. Too early guys to make podium predictions.
     
  26. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,567
    ^^ It's just speculation based on personal opinions. :) And I don't think everyone is "hanging" (do you mean handing?) Dornbush the title -- just answering the posed question. It is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that Richard could win Nats if he skates great in both sp and fp (with cleanly landed quads) -- no easy feat, but possible. It's not unheard of for someone with talent to place low one year and then totally break out the next. If not for Richard's boot problems at 2012 Nats, he likely would have been more of a factor. Plus, don't forget that Richard won the fp at 2011 Nats.

    I'm willing to bet it will end up being one of the veterans and a strong up-and-comer who performs well who end up making the World team (and Richard fits the latter category). But of course you are right that podium predictions are always iffy. And that is the case whether the predictions are made this early in the season or a few hours before the event. ;)
     
  27. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2009
    Messages:
    7,622
    This is FSU. It's never to early to make podium predictions. I predict that Weir will finally win that elusive pewter medal that is missing from his collection.
     
    numbers123 and (deleted member) like this.
  28. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,567
    ^^ :lol: Well, it would definitely be a step in the right direction for his comeback. Still, Weir could just as easily win silver for the second time, or bronze for the third time (if I have his stats correct ;)). He could also win pewter or come in fifth. I think the odds for a 4th gold for Johnny are less. Predictions are always fun while waiting for the new season, and now for the next GP to begin. :)
     
  29. judiz

    judiz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2006
    Messages:
    3,212
    I'm looking forward to a very competitive nationals, as always it's whoever delivers the goods that night who walks away with the title. Dick Button use to say Nationals was the hardest competition because you were competing against your friends and countrymen whereas at the grand prix, you were competing for your country.

    As we've seen in the past, a skater could podium at all the grand prix events and then crash at Nationals or you can have a dark horse like Weir win it as he did in 2004 after crashing and burning the year before. Weir didn't even participate in the grand prix that year, he earned his trip to nationals by winning sectionals.
     
  30. ChibiChibi

    ChibiChibi Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2007
    Messages:
    444
    I think clean Evan without a quad will win over Ricky with three quads (SP+FS). Ricky is a great skater, but he is no where near the level of Evan in every aspect of skating (well, maybe except his quads when he lands them)...and I saw Evan skates not too long ago...