Can Ashley Wagner win world championship in 2013?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Oct 11, 2012.

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Can Ashley Wagner win World championship in 2013?

Poll closed Mar 10, 2013.
  1. Yes, she is ready and she can win!

    77 vote(s)
    30.6%
  2. No way!

    52 vote(s)
    20.6%
  3. Yes, if other top skaters make mistakes

    113 vote(s)
    44.8%
  4. Yes, if she improves in this area (specify)

    10 vote(s)
    4.0%
  1. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Mirai has allowed so many opportunities to slip thru her fingers: The '08 - '09 season wasn't her fault. She was dealing w/ a bone bruise and a growth spurt, but '10 Worlds, '11 Nats, and practically the whole '11 - '12 season were heartbreaking misses when the door was wide open, and she was ultimately responsible for what happened. I will still root for her, but she is now in a position where she will get no love from the USFSA. She has to prove everything consistently on the ice to have a shot at the Worlds team.
     
  2. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    She HAS TO skate a clean SP to have a shot! That is always the challenge for Ashley.
     
  3. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Mirai seems past her prime. Her skating seems heavy and slow, her programs last year were bOOOring even had she skated them cleaner, and even her spins dont seem as spectacular as before. I dont see her being much of a threat at Nationals unless she skates lights out and others bomb.
     
  4. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah - just ask Brian Joubert (Who i'm also a fan of)
     
  5. Alex Forrest

    Alex Forrest Banned Member

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    Well, Nicks was a move in the right direction. I haven't seen her programs this year, but last year her programs were SUCH a step up. Before it was just so busy, so cluttered, so non-championship. Basically so very Tonia Kwiatkowski. With Nicks she portrayed the champion, though unfortunately she wasn't going clean. I think with Nicks she will achieve her potential and become a staple US contender this year and for 2014. I think of her as an undefined skater who could be a Joannie Rochette. Great skills, attention to detail. But JRo cleaned up her technique and Wagner still has major issues.

    Also, she needs to work on her two footed landings. She always tends to two foot in a crunch. And she still is not even close to a BOE on her lutz. It never seemed to hurt Sasha, but it's a different judging world now.

    Wagner is a beautiful young woman and skater, and she has drive. I don't bet against skaters who have drive. I didn't bet against Sasha because she was no slacker, she just had poor jump technique. I think Wagner is much stronger than Sasha, plus she is capable of wonderful "moment" spins (something even a Kwan could not create, she just had no speed or flexibility in her spins).

    I'll admit I've been a Wagner fan for years (since juniors), and was so happy to see her bring up her skating level last year. She was in a slump and made a major move, and so far it has worked. Good on her, and I wish her continued success.
     
  6. matvey

    matvey New Member

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    Right now, I'd say she's definitely the most likely prospect for a medal, but I can't see her winning the whole thing, particularly if Mao and Yu-Na come back strong.
     
  7. Alex Forrest

    Alex Forrest Banned Member

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    Does anyone seriously think Yuna Kim is returning? Or that Mao Asada is a contender anymore?

    I imagine that like Ando they will both withdraw.. I love Lipnitskaia but she has some important tech issues. I would not assume a Nicks fully packaged Wagner and with 3/3 and grit as a non-gold medalist. She could be Oly champ. Haha, if it happens I said it right here first.
     
  8. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Mao will not withdraw. She has worked hard on her jumps, in order to get back to the top. Hard to tell what Yu na will do. She has already won the OGM and may not have the motivation.
     
  9. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    We will find out this season if Gold is a strong competitor or another in the long line of headcases that are still skating. She does seem to fight through her programs which Alissa and especially Mirai are not known to do.
     
  10. totoro8673

    totoro8673 New Member

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    I think Yuna will compete in 2013 WC (not withdraw). I heard Yuna likes her new programs very much and is working very enthusiastically. Kim HaeJin(JGP Sencila Bled Cup single winner) said Yuna is still the same.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  11. UGG

    UGG Well-Known Member

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    skate a really great short program.

    Ashley has as good of a chance as anyone. The days of two or three skaters being shoo ins for the podium and gold medal contender are gone. There is no Kwan, Slytskaya, Kim or Cohen, etc...

    It's anyone's championship.

    For the first time, Ashley LOOKED like a top tier contender. Before last year, she always looked like a B lister like Emily Hugues or someone on that level.
     
  12. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

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    Wagner could win if she 1) gets a triple-triple, and 2) manage to pulloff a decent SP.

    As for competition, Yuna Kim probably won't be at the worlds, Asada is well past her prime, and new comers like Gold and baby Russians are not there yet.
     
  13. RockTheTassel

    RockTheTassel Well-Known Member

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    In Ashley's case, I feel like almost anything could happen. I wouldn't be shocked if she won Worlds and I also wouldn't be shocked if she didn't make the World team (hoping for the former scenario, though).
     
  14. centerstage01

    centerstage01 Well-Known Member

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    Ashley's got just as good a chance as anyone else. Let us repeat our motto: Ice Is Slippery. Anything Can Happen.
     
  15. lakewood

    lakewood New Member

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    YuNa is very serious about what she says. She will definitely compete at 2013 Worlds and Sochi Olympics.

    She later confessed that she didn't want to go to 2011 Worlds, but she did it as her responsibility to Korean sakting. But, this time it is a bit different. She made a decision after a long time of thinking. I think she has some determination to do it herself and confidence too. Without confidence on her skating level, she would not have made a decision to come back.
     
  16. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

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    Sure, but this is a Wagner thread.
     
  17. Mrs. P

    Mrs. P Active Member

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    I say yes.

    Ashley has momentum on her side and I think she has decent programs this year.

    Plus she seems driven to prove that last season was not a fluke.
     
  18. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    No way.

    She is too inconsistent, too prone to certain mistakes (two-footed landings, flutzes) and doesn't have a reliable 3/3 combo.

    Presentation is ok but not outstanding.

    The only way she could win would be if everybody else had a meltdown.

    Possible but not very likely.

    Also there is another thing to consider. US has only two Ladies spots at 2013 Worlds. Placing top 2 at Nationals in the first place is going to be hard enough and isn't a given.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  19. t.mann

    t.mann New Member

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    Agree.

    And Wagner does not have even a GPF medal yet.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  20. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    ^ This could possible be the first year she does that.
     
  21. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, she has had those problems in the past but it looks like she has taken serious steps to correct some of her problems. It doesn't matter what her skating used to be like. "That was then this is now."

    Might I add, that Alissa is a GPF champion. That doesn't mean you win WC's. Ashley does not have to medal in GPF although it could be argued that the judges might not "let her" win WC's without it. I just don't think that is realistic, if she skates well at WC. Ashley has already won 4CC's which gives her "rep".
     
  22. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    In the SP, I think she needs (1) a reliable 3f-3t which seems to be coming along (WTT). I'm also so happy she decided to do a 3l and get rid of the lutz. (2) Just continue to grow under Nicks' tutelage and refine her technique / artistry. I think the SP is short enough time on the ice where she's less likely to 2-foot landings

    In the LP, on the TES side, I actually don't see a path to gain a larger no. of points. She could move her 3 jump combo to the 2d half of the program, do a 3l-2t-2l (3l is strong for her now) instead of a 3f-2t-2t at the beginning (then maybe do a 3f-2t w/ hands overhead for higher GOE in that combo), but that pt. increase is negligible. I don't know if it's possible due to wear and tear on the body, but she could do a 'Gracie' and look at sequences like the 3f - 3s. Otherwise, her biggest point jump will probably come from refining her technique / artistry, eliminate 2-foots, and increase the points she'll accumulate on the PCS side. Also, her 4th place finish at Worlds and her easily claimed #1 spot on the US side will probably help get her 'rewarded' by judges internationally.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  23. Roxanne

    Roxanne New Member

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    If Yuna is there, then I don't think Ashley has a chance of winning. But if not, then she has a decent chance of winning. I'm just worried that she'll mess up the SP, as usual.
     
  24. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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  25. toddlj

    toddlj The sort of fan who gets up at 3am to watch

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  26. peibeck

    peibeck Counting down the days 'til Skate America

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    However she won 4CC last year and then was 4th at Worlds (and 3rd in the Free), so I think she has the potential to medal.

    There will be no North American countries represented on the Ladies judging panel this year at Worlds, however. (In fact, Canada only gets one judge for the whole comp - in Pairs). So she won't have any advantage in a political sense.
     
  27. matvey

    matvey New Member

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    Given her performance at the Japan Open, I'd say Mao's looking as promising for the upcoming season as any other skater seeing as she's jumping fairly well again and has a good program, so, yes, I currently consider her to be a contender for a Worlds medal.

    Yu-Na is admittedly more of a grey area but I see no reason to write her off just yet.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  28. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Well had Alissa skated two clean programs at Worlds, I believe she'd pretty easily bag the gold, given her very high GOE on spins and the fact the judges would go with her on the PCS especially with a clean program.
     
  29. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    But that implies that there are skaters with cleaner, more difficult programs who will nail them at Nationals. There are several great contenders, but they still need to prove that they can.
     
  30. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    They are as likely to nail them as Wagner. She's not exactly known for stellar consistency.