Can Ashley Wagner win world championship in 2013?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Oct 11, 2012.

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Can Ashley Wagner win World championship in 2013?

Poll closed Mar 10, 2013.
  1. Yes, she is ready and she can win!

    77 vote(s)
    30.6%
  2. No way!

    52 vote(s)
    20.6%
  3. Yes, if other top skaters make mistakes

    113 vote(s)
    44.8%
  4. Yes, if she improves in this area (specify)

    10 vote(s)
    4.0%
  1. UGG

    UGG Well-Known Member

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    skate a really great short program.

    Ashley has as good of a chance as anyone. The days of two or three skaters being shoo ins for the podium and gold medal contender are gone. There is no Kwan, Slytskaya, Kim or Cohen, etc...

    It's anyone's championship.

    For the first time, Ashley LOOKED like a top tier contender. Before last year, she always looked like a B lister like Emily Hugues or someone on that level.
  2. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

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    Wagner could win if she 1) gets a triple-triple, and 2) manage to pulloff a decent SP.

    As for competition, Yuna Kim probably won't be at the worlds, Asada is well past her prime, and new comers like Gold and baby Russians are not there yet.
  3. RockTheTassel

    RockTheTassel Well-Known Member

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    In Ashley's case, I feel like almost anything could happen. I wouldn't be shocked if she won Worlds and I also wouldn't be shocked if she didn't make the World team (hoping for the former scenario, though).
  4. centerstage01

    centerstage01 Well-Known Member

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    Ashley's got just as good a chance as anyone else. Let us repeat our motto: Ice Is Slippery. Anything Can Happen.
  5. lakewood

    lakewood New Member

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    YuNa is very serious about what she says. She will definitely compete at 2013 Worlds and Sochi Olympics.

    She later confessed that she didn't want to go to 2011 Worlds, but she did it as her responsibility to Korean sakting. But, this time it is a bit different. She made a decision after a long time of thinking. I think she has some determination to do it herself and confidence too. Without confidence on her skating level, she would not have made a decision to come back.
  6. RumbleFish

    RumbleFish New Member

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    Sure, but this is a Wagner thread.
  7. Mrs. P

    Mrs. P New Member

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    I say yes.

    Ashley has momentum on her side and I think she has decent programs this year.

    Plus she seems driven to prove that last season was not a fluke.
  8. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    No way.

    She is too inconsistent, too prone to certain mistakes (two-footed landings, flutzes) and doesn't have a reliable 3/3 combo.

    Presentation is ok but not outstanding.

    The only way she could win would be if everybody else had a meltdown.

    Possible but not very likely.

    Also there is another thing to consider. US has only two Ladies spots at 2013 Worlds. Placing top 2 at Nationals in the first place is going to be hard enough and isn't a given.
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  9. t.mann

    t.mann New Member

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    Agree.

    And Wagner does not have even a GPF medal yet.
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  10. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    ^ This could possible be the first year she does that.
  11. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, she has had those problems in the past but it looks like she has taken serious steps to correct some of her problems. It doesn't matter what her skating used to be like. "That was then this is now."

    Might I add, that Alissa is a GPF champion. That doesn't mean you win WC's. Ashley does not have to medal in GPF although it could be argued that the judges might not "let her" win WC's without it. I just don't think that is realistic, if she skates well at WC. Ashley has already won 4CC's which gives her "rep".
  12. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    In the SP, I think she needs (1) a reliable 3f-3t which seems to be coming along (WTT). I'm also so happy she decided to do a 3l and get rid of the lutz. (2) Just continue to grow under Nicks' tutelage and refine her technique / artistry. I think the SP is short enough time on the ice where she's less likely to 2-foot landings

    In the LP, on the TES side, I actually don't see a path to gain a larger no. of points. She could move her 3 jump combo to the 2d half of the program, do a 3l-2t-2l (3l is strong for her now) instead of a 3f-2t-2t at the beginning (then maybe do a 3f-2t w/ hands overhead for higher GOE in that combo), but that pt. increase is negligible. I don't know if it's possible due to wear and tear on the body, but she could do a 'Gracie' and look at sequences like the 3f - 3s. Otherwise, her biggest point jump will probably come from refining her technique / artistry, eliminate 2-foots, and increase the points she'll accumulate on the PCS side. Also, her 4th place finish at Worlds and her easily claimed #1 spot on the US side will probably help get her 'rewarded' by judges internationally.
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  13. Roxanne

    Roxanne New Member

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    If Yuna is there, then I don't think Ashley has a chance of winning. But if not, then she has a decent chance of winning. I'm just worried that she'll mess up the SP, as usual.
  14. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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  15. toddlj

    toddlj Well-Known Member

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  16. peibeck

    peibeck Counting down the days 'til Skate America

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    However she won 4CC last year and then was 4th at Worlds (and 3rd in the Free), so I think she has the potential to medal.

    There will be no North American countries represented on the Ladies judging panel this year at Worlds, however. (In fact, Canada only gets one judge for the whole comp - in Pairs). So she won't have any advantage in a political sense.
  17. matvey

    matvey New Member

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    Given her performance at the Japan Open, I'd say Mao's looking as promising for the upcoming season as any other skater seeing as she's jumping fairly well again and has a good program, so, yes, I currently consider her to be a contender for a Worlds medal.

    Yu-Na is admittedly more of a grey area but I see no reason to write her off just yet.
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  18. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Well had Alissa skated two clean programs at Worlds, I believe she'd pretty easily bag the gold, given her very high GOE on spins and the fact the judges would go with her on the PCS especially with a clean program.
  19. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    But that implies that there are skaters with cleaner, more difficult programs who will nail them at Nationals. There are several great contenders, but they still need to prove that they can.
  20. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    They are as likely to nail them as Wagner. She's not exactly known for stellar consistency.
  21. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Yuna couldn't beat a 3-3 and 3flip less Miki Ando at 2011 Worlds, and Miki made a mistake in her FS too, landed only 5 clean triples. And Yuna did not bomb there either, just made a few errors. I don't think Yuna is as invincible as you think. Not after all this time off...
  22. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Yu Na was at about 55% of her potential at the 2011 Worlds, and still very nearly won, granted a really weak Worlds but still. The Yu Na from Vancouver probably wins the 2011 Worlds by about 40 points, and the field hasnt improved that much (if any) since then, so she obviously needs to be nowhere near her Vancouver level. At even 80% of her potential she is virtually unbeatable amongst the current field, maybe less depending how the Russian babies develop, Asada comes back, and Wagner keeps developing.
  23. Maofan7

    Maofan7 Away

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  24. Roxanne

    Roxanne New Member

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    That's just because Ando gets ridiculously high PCS. Ashely doesn't get that kind of PCS yet. I think Yuna could make quite a few mistakes and still beat Ashley.
    l'etoile and (deleted member) like this.
  25. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Historically Ando didn't get such high PCS though, it was only once she built up her reputation through being consistent, winning a lot of medals, and attempting ambitious content that her PCS got so high, and then once that happened, she lightened up her content but was still consistent and the high PCS stayed which is why she was able to win Worlds (and pretty much everything else that season) in 2011. Miki is for sure a talented jumper but beyond that her skating was never super special IMO, but she did everything else well enough (strong SS, decent speed, could tick off the positions to get level 4s on her spins, pull off level 3 footwork convincingly), was attractive physically, and had her age work toward the advantage of creating a "sophisticated lady" image on the ice rather than some teenybopper, so if Ashley can perform consistently in competitions and go for ambitious content this season, her results and thus PCS will likely rise, and that means in the Olympic season, as long as she can stay consistent, she might not even need really ambitious content to win a medal at the Olympics and/or Worlds. She too is a strong jumper and does everything else sufficiently, 3-3s are definitely possible for her, her body may be muscular but is considered appealing in skating, facially she's beautiful, and she does appear sophisticated with her new programs, especially compared to all the Russian teens on the scene. Basically Ashley needs to prove she's not a head case this season and I think as long as she does that she should be good to make Worlds and, if she can keep it up through next season, the Olympics in 2014, and depending on how consistent/good she skates, medaling in either venue is a definite possibility.
  26. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think it would be a huge mistake to equate the 2011 Worlds with what would be required of a skater to win at the 2013 Worlds and 2014 Olympics. The young Russian jumping beans are age eligible now, Kim is coming back and hopefully more motivated than she was in 2011 where has since admited she didnt even really want to be there, and Asada seems to be returning to form finally.
  27. Wyliefan

    Wyliefan Well-Known Member

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    I'd vote yes, but I don't want to jinx her. Move along, skategods, nothing to see here . . .
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  28. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    ^ THIS. This is what I meant last season when I said that if a US lady was pacing to get on the team for Sochi (and even be a medals contender), they needed to step up their game last season so that the international panel could give some credence to a US skater.
  29. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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  30. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    And that's the kind of music that suits her well. I like this program !
    Her attack on the jumps is better at the end of the program. Her 3Flip is weird, lol.
  31. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Yes, as someone mentioned in the JO thread in GSD, the significant thing is she landed that odd 3flip, whereas earlier in her career, she likely would have fallen.

    Onward and upward, Ashley!
  32. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Right ! But IMO, if she wants her PCS to improve, she will have to do clean performances, I mean, with clean landings. :)
  33. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Yes, clean helps, but this is great for start of season for Ashley. Just a slight miscue on 3flip, but fully rotated. I don't check protocols so I don't know all the details of her scoring and generally I don't care so much re judges' opinions. ;) Re PCS, judges hold that down or raise it up truthfully based on things other than skaters' actual performances, IMHO.

    She was happy with the marks, in first place among ladies. :)


    ETA:

    In GSD Ashley blog thread, there is a link (doesn't seem to work) re a new article by Sarah Brannen posted on the Boston2014 website.

    Also, Ashley's official site:

    http://www.figureskatersonline.com/ashleywagner/
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2012
  34. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    I would describe Ashley at the JO this year as having taken it to the next level. Her program is well constructed, she seems very fit, and her jump technique seems better in the air and during the landings (ie not falling).
  35. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I think she'll win if other frontrunners such as Mao, Akiko, and Carolina make mistakes, but she needs them to make mistakes because her PCs are often a bit lower IIRC (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong!).
  36. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Sure she can, if the frontrunners make costly mistakes (pops, falls). But she will need to skate strongly throughout the season to 'deserve' high PCS at Worlds, and will need a clean and consistent 3/3.
  37. mag

    mag Well-Known Member

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    Assuming a 3/3 is necessary to win (and I don't know if it will be) Ashley doesn't actually need a consistent 3/3, she would just need to land one (or 2) at Worlds. Skaters do sometimes have the skate of a lifetime at the most opportune moment. Jeff Buttle had that kind of freeskate at Worlds in 2008, Sarah Hughes in SLC, even Takahashi and Tran at Worlds last year. Clearly, consistency is preferred; but it isn't a requirement.
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  38. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    She will need it in both the short and long. (her 2axel3toe isn't any more consistent either - I say drop the axeltoe, just work on the fliptoe for both the short and long so she doesn't need to train 2 tricks)
  39. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I am wondering how Yu na's return would affect Ashley (and the rest of the skaters). Yu na may be rusty but she has good jump technique and she is the best natural artist. I don't see Ashley beating her. She can beat any of the other skaters if she skates clean, and others make mistakes.
  40. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    She could easily do it. But not if others skaters skate clean. Ladies such as Suzuki, Kostner, yuna, elizaveta could all beat her but they have to skate clean. Ashley has consistency on her side while others don't. But if the others pull of 2 clean programs I think they could even push her off the podium