Can Ashley actually score well at Worlds?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by krenseby, Jan 29, 2012.

  1. Wyliefan

    Wyliefan Well-Known Member

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    Can she really lose the double-foots in time? I wonder. You all know how I uber her, but I will admit that that double-foot has dogged her for AGES. I'm glad she's trying to fix it, but it may take more time than she's got before Worlds.
     
  2. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    Yes, I too think it's a lot to accomplish in a short time but at least she is headed in the right direction and is aware of the work to be done.
     
  3. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Wagner can be as high as fifth or as low as tenth.

    Barring major disasters, Kostner, Asada, Suzuki and Czisny will beat her.

    She will pretty much have comparable PCS and GOE to Leonova, Korpi, Elene G and Murakami (i.e. low to mid 7s). Between the five of them the placements will really depend on the night.

    Polina K is rather consistent but her PCS is the lowest, being the third Russian. I am not worried about her beating Wagner. Nor do I worry about Makarova or Phanuef (or Lacoste) going clean.

    If Wagner places in the lower half of the top ten, she will need Czisny to medal in order for US to retain that spot - which isn't impossible, but difficult given how Czisny has skated so far this season.
     
  4. skfan

    skfan Member

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    just to make it clear, i am pro-wagner--i want ashley on the world team because she's the american with the prettiest layback position. but you really think she's got the same PCS potential as korpi? if korpi is clean, korpi is going to get kostner level PCS. even if ashley is clean with 3f-3t in the short. if ashley has the same PCS as leonova, it'll mean polina K has taken over as russia's #1, and i'm guessing with polina's much bigger (when successful) 3f-3t vs ashley's yet-to-be-seen 3f-3t (where i'll be praying for a tech specialist not to detect a two-footed landing or UR), polina could get better PCS than ashley too.

    i only see murakami and elene G in the ashley ballpark for PCS. i want to be optimistic, really, but i'm not seeing it.
     
  5. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Korpi, Elene G and Leonova all beat Wagner on PCS at NHK Trophy 3 months ago. However, the scoring was pretty close.

    If Wagner could medal at 4CCs and deliver a strong performance, her PCS can definitely catch up.
     
  6. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Wagner's PCS scores are lower than Leonova, Korpi and Gedevanishvili. The only skater she outranked consistently in PCS this season is Murakami.

    61.82 7.64 7.50 7.79 7.75 7.96 LEONOVA Worlds 2011
    61.13 7.68 7.46 7.64 7.64 7.79 CZISNY Worlds 2011
    60.08 7.54 7.25 7.54 7.61 7.61 MAKAROVA Worlds 2011
    60.01 7.46 7.18 7.61 7.57 7.68 LEONOVA CoR
    59.94 7.61 7.32 7.50 7.46 7.57 ASADA Worlds 2011
    58.86 7.32 7.07 7.43 7.43 7.54 KORPI Euros
    58.62 7.39 7.11 7.32 7.39 7.43 KORPI CoR
    58.42 7.54 6.86 7.43 7.32 7.36 LEONOVA NHK
    58.06 7.32 6.93 7.29 7.32 7.43 KORPI Worlds 2011
    57.61 7.32 6.86 7.36 7.21 7.25 GEDEVANISHVILI Euros
    57.60 7.14 7.00 7.11 7.39 7.36 KORPI NHK
    56.62 7.14 6.89 7.11 7.04 7.21 MURAKAMI Worlds 2011
    56.33 7.32 6.75 7.07 7.00 7.07 GEDEVANISHVILI NHK
    55.71 7.04 6.57 7.11 6.96 7.14 LEONOVA Euros
    55.48 7.04 6.32 7.32 6.82 7.18 WAGNER SC
    55.32 7.04 6.61 7.04 7.00 6.89 WAGNER NHK
    54.01 6.96 6.61 6.61 6.82 6.75 MURAKAMI CoC
    53.88 7.04 6.25 6.82 6.82 6.75 MURAKAMI TEB
    52.12 6.68 6.21 6.50 6.57 6.61 LEONOVA SC
    50.97 6.64 6.04 6.43 6.29 6.46 GEDEVANISHVILI Worlds 2011
    49.46 6.39 5.96 6.29 6.14 6.14 GEDEVANISHVILI SA
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  7. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    The "2-foot issue" is so passe. OF COURSE, Ashley can and will score very high at Worlds. Ashley will be the first US lady to make podium at Worlds since 2006.
     
  8. KingaG

    KingaG New Member

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    I disagree with you. Is Ashley not in the same league as Nagasu?? Im sorry, but Nagasu has very blant programs this season and does not perform well. How is Ashley out of her league? Do Nationals tell you something?

    When it comes to not being in the same league with others - I think it is a stretch (except of Mao and Carolina, maybe). All ladies have strenghts and weaknesses. Ashley has a beautiful layback, she is fast (although her basic are not great), energetic and has interesting programs this season. She also shows great attitude. And 3/3 that other ladies have?? Well, how many of them perform them clean when it really matters?? I sense that she has potential to bring the house down, if she skates clean. Antyhing can happen in ladies skating, nothing is written in the stone.
    Also, if Korpi and Czisny get the 'pretty bonus' I don't see the reason why Ashley shouldn't :). She is very beautiful.


    I agree. She has the best outfits out there.
     
  9. modern_muslimah

    modern_muslimah Thinking of witty user title and coming up blank

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    The thing with Ashley is that she is a bit like Tonia Kwiakowski. They're both very good skaters who can easily get into the top ten but they're not extraordinary skaters who can easily make it into top five on their own. Ashley will need help from other more talented skaters to make it into the top five. Nothing about Ashley's skating (besides her attack) really stands out at the moment. Alissa has great spins, Kiira has really nice basics, Leonova has just as much attack as Ashley along with a consistent 3-3, Suzuki also has very good basics, speed and a 3-3. Even Nagasu has more speed, better spins and jumps. Now, if any of these skaters don't skate up to their best, then Wagner can beat them. I think that was the lesson learned from Nationals. Ashley was able to win because she was mostly clean in both segments while Alissa made too many mistakes. I won't even get into Nagasu's skating. I don't think the less was that Wagner is equal or better than either.
     
  10. wonderlen

    wonderlen New Member

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    She has to skate like this again and hopefully win silver or bronze at 4CC and rep up her reputation score. She needs to score over 115+ at 4CC and go from there.

    At world who knows. Neither Mao, Suzuki or Koster are hardly running away with the grand slam score. And she needs to land all ther 7 triples and clean, and if a few of the other ladies flater, she might be lucky enough for bronze. She def have to make up the 5-7 points PCS disavantage form both SP+LP some how.
     
  11. NinjaTurtles

    NinjaTurtles Teenage Mutant

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    Yes, I saw that brief interview as well and noted her very quick and straight response. She is certainly cognizant of her current deficiencies / what she needs to have to contend internationally.
     
  12. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    I'll go against the grain and say she should go conservative. Do what she can do clean, don't even try a 3-3, it's inviting downgrades and two-footing.

    Asada and Kostner will beat her with even subpar skates. Suzuki is consistently better than her. Korpi, Leonova, Olyesia 1 and Olyesia 2 will like like beat her with half-decent skates, it's a combination of higher quality and more judges' respect. (though probably 2 of these will implode herself out of contention). Someone else like Gede or Murakami also has a decent shot at finishing ahead of her. So I think a medal is highly unlikely. She should instead aim for a clean 5-7th place finish, and hope Oleysia1 brings her least fragile self so the two of them can cobble together 3-spots qualification.
     
  13. Ozzisk8tr

    Ozzisk8tr Well-Known Member

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    I'm still waiting for someone to do the Running Man and Roger Rabbits in a Swan Lake program, or at least a few can-can kicks. I wont hold my breath waiting though. ;)
     
  14. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Ashley's checklist -

    1- UR: Good John Nicks has tightened her jumps. This has helped her rotate her jumps and avoid the UR for the most part.

    2- 2-footing: Fair The tightening has limited the 2-footing, but hasn't eliminated it. Though IMO, the 3 jumps she 2-footed at Nats in the LP were mostly due to the pressure she (and others) put on herself to finally deliver and finish in the top 2. Also, it was her first 2x-3t this season, so additionally there was probably some uncertainty on that particular element.

    3- Pops: Not an issue The pop on the 3sal was a blip in her LP at nats. She attacks and doesn't really ever pull back IMO, won't be an issue going forward.

    4- Flutz: poor She won't fix it and probably never will. She and Mr. Nicks should just keep it the way it is and expect the negative GOE. A flutz is still worth a little more than another clean 2x though, right?

    I'm very happy she FINALLY got rid of the 3z in the SP. Good strategy!

    Now, the elements she might want to tinker with are -

    1- SP: 3f-3t in the SP, along with the 3l and 2x. Just go for it! This will boost her SP, where she lags the big ladies by a significant (but not overwhelming)point gap. She was attempting it with worse technique under Priscilla Hill.

    2- LP: She already has 7 triples and a 2x, repeating the 3f and 3l. She doesn't need anything additional. She might want to think about moving the 3 jump combo to the 2d half of the program. Additionally, she might want to play with FW and her spins to achieve LV4.

    Good, high PCS will only come from international judges if she skates lights-out, forcing them to give it to her
     
  15. taf2002

    taf2002 Texas slumlord

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    I agree. She should shoot for top 10 & hope Alissa can make the top 3. Thinking she's in medal contention is asking for trouble. She's not. (I would like to be able to eat my words.)
     
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Top 3 is maybe too ambitious for Alissa IMO. She's stagnating a bit and last season she was only 5th despite skating better all season than she has this season (granted, Ando and Kim were at Worlds last season and won't be this time around, but you also have to take into consideration that Suzuki wasn't there and Asada and Murakami both underperformed). I say Alissa aims for top 5 and Ashley top 8. That is more realistic and I think they can definitely manage that if they skate up to their potential.
     
  17. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

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    I'm not reading much confidence here. It looks like neither Ashley nor Alissa should try for the podium. :confused:
     
  18. KingaG

    KingaG New Member

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    And this is something that should not be happening. If a less known skater has a clean, nice skate with some good elements and interesting program, it should score higher than mediocre skate from a reputable skater. Unfortunately it is not the case, most of the times.

    I think such attitude is just wrong. I dont know Ashley, but basing on what I have heard so far about her, she is not going to back off and just skate for a decent 7th place. She will give it all out there. I am sure she is more ambitious than that and that is great.
     
  19. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    Alissa: not much is going to change in her skating, just her mindset. She should focus on skating clean and let what happens happens. Focusing on the podium will only likely psych her out.

    Ashley: she is the one talking about changing her programs to rank higher at worlds, but I don't think even she is thinking podium.
     
  20. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Alissa could medal if she could regain her early 2011 and late 2011 form. I think she could easily beat Suzuki who people are touting as a sure medalist but really has no past credentials that would indicate such confidence and is quite beatable (TBH she has always been vastly overrated on this forum IMHO). If Czisny skated close to clean I dont see Suzuki, Leonova, or Korpi beating her, and nobody knows how Kostner and Asada will skate. I dont think Murakami is even a factor this year.
     
  21. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Ashley two foots too many jumps. She might get any with it at Nats but the internationally judges will kill her.
     
  22. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I just want Ashley and Alissa to get that elusive 13 or under number so we get that third spot back. Then next year we can send better skaters.
     
  23. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    :confused:
    She's always had this issue Which is one reason why she hasn't dome better over the years. If, like at nats, the others just make more mistakes than her, she'll do well. But I see no evidence that the judges simply turned a blind eye. She had terrible goe on all her jumps in the lp. Is wasn't so much that she was held up, but that nats was a splatfeasts IMHO.
     
  24. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    You know, it's tempting to say Wagner doesn't have a chance at worlds due to her issues...but the thing is that the field at worlds this year is probably more open than ever. I've seen stranger things happen...

    That said, I'm not optimistic for 3 spots at all. Czisny is not skating well this season- she's hanging in there only because she is not giving up like she would have in the past, but I think she's getting tentative on the jumps again. And Wagner, well- this whole thread is about how she's unlikely to score high even if she does rise to the occasion. I see them placing lower half of top 10.

    Now, if Czisny can somehow pull herself together and skate like she did at nationals or worlds last year, a medal could very well be within reach. Which would mean Wagner would only have to stay in the top 10, but of course that's far easier said than done.

    Frankly, I don't seem to have as much confidence in Wagner at worlds as some do here. She hasn't been in 4 years. Can she handle the pressure, the spotlight? And one thing I'm not hearing anyone talk about- she is now champion...people will expect things from her. I don't see any previous indication on her record that says she can deal well with high expectations. In other words- don't be shocked if she has a sub-par showing (again) here...
     
  25. Chris_E

    Chris_E Active Member

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    Yes, Ashley hasn't been to worlds in a while but she did live up to her high expectations at Nationals. Maybe now having a big win under her belt she'll have the confidence to shake things up at Worlds. Obviously Four Continents will be a big test for the "new" Ashley.