Can Ashley actually score well at Worlds?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by krenseby, Jan 29, 2012.

  1. krenseby

    krenseby New Member

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    Do you guys think it's possible for Ashley to get good scores at this year's Worlds? It would be sad if she would skate brilliantly and yet be scored poorly! I don't think she deserves to be treated as damaged goods, as someone unworthy of contending for a top 5 finish.
  2. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Which is why it is smart to send her to 4CCs for further exposure, some PCS and ISU points accumulation, and hopefully an ISU championship medal.

    At Worlds, I don't expect her to beat Asada, Suzuki and Kostner. As for the rest, Czisny, the Russians and Korpi have been up and down, so Wagner can certainly contend for a top 5. But she has to be absolutely spot on and bring out the big tricks. A 3flip2toe in the short program will bury her. She is no Asada.

    If all goes well for her, she should expect mid 7s for PCS as maximum.
  3. BittyBug

    BittyBug Kiteless

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    :huh: Why? 3T-3T = 8.2 points in base value. 3F-2T = 6.6 points in base value. I hardly think a gap of 1.8 points will "bury her."
  4. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Here's what Ashley scored in her bronze-medal winning FS at SC:
    110.98 56.50 55.48 7.04 6.32 7.32 6.82 7.18

    1.8 points wouldn't necessarily bury her, but it could be enough to leave her out of the final group for FS.

    However, Ashley hasn't been trying any 3/3s this season. If she's still double-footing her jumps, I'd be concerned that 3/3 attempts would result in URs, downgrades or even falls. She already is getting dinged for flutzing.
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  5. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

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    I think if she puts two clean skates together she could possibly make the top five. I hope that winning the national title will give her the confidence to do that.
  6. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    International judges dont really like her up to now to be honest. Even her good results ae with mediocre scores and others performing poorly. However up until this year she was frequently underrated by National judges even when she skated fairly well, and that changed this year. Hopefully as U.S Champ she has a whole new street cred and if she can back it up with performance will be rewarded.
  7. newbatgirl

    newbatgirl New Member

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    Ladies at Worlds can be a splatfest. I don't think you can say that anyone who has medaled on the GP is truly out of the top five range. Anything can happen. Crossing my fingers that Ashley and Alissa skate as cleanly as possible, and score well enough to earn three spots.
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I still believe Alissa can definitely medal if she skates cleanly. Heck she beat a good Kostner at Skate America with falls and majors errors, although that was probably only due it being in the U.S.
  9. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Depends. Can she skate well at Worlds?
  10. krenseby

    krenseby New Member

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    I meant assuming that she skates either her best or really well, will that get her somewhere? Will the judges reward her for skating well?
  11. aliceanne

    aliceanne Well-Known Member

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    She will if she follows her plan to:

    1. Add a triple/triple to her SP
    2. Not get any edge calls
    3. Land her triples cleanly on one foot.
    4. Not fall

    In the past number 3 has been the biggest challenge. Even at the 2010 Nationals where she pulled up from 12th to third, she landed most of her jumps with her feet still crossed. This year I only noticed that one jump where she scraped her foot checking out.

    As to whether she will medal will depend on how some of the others skate. There are better jumpers and better artistic skaters. I thought her choreography was a little off in the long. In the middle right where the music swells to it's most dramatic crescendo it appears she takes a rest break.
  12. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    Seriously, the excuses and "wuz robbed" claims have stared already, and she hasn't even bought her plane ticket yet. :rolleyes:

    I'm off to marinate my hat, as I'll be eating it should Ashley "skates brilliantly" at worlds. :lol: sorry, but nothing in her 5 years of pretty consistant skating has shown anything of kind will happen.
  13. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

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    I think she can. And I think that if she does, she'll get good marks - she's never finished lower than 5th at any GP, which is more than a lot of the ladiezz can say. Nobody's been consistent this year; Asada, Suzuki, and Koster look good for the podium, but a recharged Alissa or Leonova could be a spoiler. As for the other ladies, Korpi, Gedevanishvili, Korobeinykova or even Makarova could keep her out the top five. Or not. she really needs to go out there and hit everything.
  14. iarispiralllyof

    iarispiralllyof Active Member

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    i'm rooting for her. I think her spiral is the highlight of her black swan lp. her layback is pretty. i think the ending was anticlimactic though
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Better spinners too. Better basic skaters. I like Ashley and was thrilled she won Nationals but she really isnt good enough to control her own destiny vs the Worlds best even if she were more liked by the judges. She isnt one of the very best if they all have their best day. She isnt a Czisny or Nagasu really. Hopefully she can have one of her best days, and capatilize if some of the better skaters dont.
    Ozzisk8tr and (deleted member) like this.
  16. orbitz

    orbitz Well-Known Member

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    I thought Ashley's Black Swan was supposed to be "edgy". Didn't she say that about her LP earlier in the season? I don't find the current program to be memorable at all. And of course Ashley did the dreaded circling-in-one-place-on-the-toepicks move that every Swan Lake program has.
  17. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Well, she better than Leonova in my book, so if she beats Leonova, I'm going to be perfectly happy. :)
  18. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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    I think that if she takes care of the 2-footing issue and skates clean, I see no reason why she wouldn't make top 5. With some help from the big guns she could medal.
  19. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

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    This is an excellent point that we need to understand. The penalty for a fall is one point? Nonsense. If Jeremy had fallen 3 times, would his score be just 3 points lower? No. Well landed jumps have a psychological effect on the judges that we don't fully comprehend. When a skater lands clean, hard jumps, the spirals look prettier, the spins look faster, all other elements just look nicer.

    Trust me, it's not just 1.8 points.
  20. sequins

    sequins New Member

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    I like Ashley, she seems like a a sweetheart and was happy for her this weekend. I think with the women anything can happen. If she skates well I don't see why she wouldn't place well and if she skates well that's really all that matters and I think she'd be happy with that regardless of the judges. On a shallow note I always like her outfits, she'd had some real pretty dresses over the years.
  21. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure if she can medal, but I think top 6 is certainly within her grasp. She's armed with two great programs this season, and I think being the U.S. champion will help boost her confidence even more.
  22. modern_muslimah

    modern_muslimah Well-Known Member

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    I think she can easily make the top ten if she skates well. Top five won't easy for her. She doesn't have the same rep with judges that Alissa has and Mao, Carolina, Kiira, Akiko, even Alena will all go into the WC with a better rep than Ashley. Still, none of those skaters is the model of consistency so if Ashley skates cleanly (gets rid of the two foot landings, rotates all her jumps), then I think she has a good chance of getting into the top five. I don't think all of those skaters will skate well in Nice, which may open the door for Ashley. Still, Ashley has to be able to handle the pressure too.
  23. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Not for skaters like Carolina or Patrick...
  24. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    She will be buried in PCS and most likely GOEs too. Unless you have won some sort of World / Euro / 4CC / GPF medal, you won't be taken seriously with just a 3/2 in the short. This is as much reputational judging as it is the fact that she just isn't in the same league as Asada, Suzuki or Czisny (or Nagasu) who do 3/2s in the short.

    Plus, her main competition for placement will come from the B list contenders (Russians, Korpi, Murakami etc) and they mostly do 3/3s in the short and have already had some sort of Euro / GPF medal. Wagner will either need to medal or skate really well at 4CCs or do a 3/3 in the short to even level with them.
  25. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

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    I have mixed feelings about sending Ashley to 4CC. Alissa was U.S. champ in 2009. She went to 4CC and got beat by 2 other Americans. Then she accomplished the exact same feat last year. If Ashley gets beat by one or both U.S. ladies, that could diminish her in the eyes of ISU judges.

    Both of Ashley's team mates have short program triple-triples. Agnes would be deadly if she skates clean, and Caroline has a mysterious ability to do better in ISU events than national events.
  26. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    has caroline really scored better at internationals than at home recently? i thought she hasn't been scored well in either places until this year's nationals.

    as for 4CC, i am happy with the ladies team (dance is another story), because if you are the USFS you want to do your best to support a big-jumper like agnes--you want her to have a chance for redemption as early as possible. ok, *i* want her to, because she looked so devastated on tv.

    i doubt very much that ashley will finish behind both caroline and agnes at 4CC.
  27. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

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    Maybe not both, but even one could reduce her stature in the eyes of the ISU judges. The flip side of course is that if Ashley does very well, that could raise her stature.
  28. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I would be surprised if Ashley isnt the top American at 4CCs. She hasnt had a bad skate all year, Agnes hasnt had a good long program all year (heck her only good short was at Nationals), and Caroline is a ways away from beating her at this point still. It is not like the international judges think a whole lot of her thus far anyway. Things can only get better if she does another event and skates well again, espcecialy coming off her U.S title.
  29. Louis

    Louis Tinami 2012

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    As Terry Gannon would say, she won't control her own destiny.

    Kostner, the 3 Russians, the 3 Japanese, Gedevanishvili, whichever of Phaneuf or Lacoste goes, Korpi, Czisny, and possibly others all have the potential to score above Wagner with a good skate. They all have equal to (much) better basic skating technique.

    Let's say HALF of the above hit. That still leaves her in seventh place with a clean or close-to-clean skate. If she two-foots like she did at Nationals, much lower.

    Wagner played her cards right at Nationals, but Worlds will require a bigger effort. IMO, she has to try for 3F+3T in the short and 3F+3T and 2A+3T in the free skate if she has any chance of top five. The math won't work any other way.
  30. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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    Saw a blip on Ashley interviewed about her win and plans for Worlds. She said she knows she needs a 3/3 for the SP, lose the edge call and the 2 footed landings. She knows. Hopefully, she can improve.
  31. Wyliefan

    Wyliefan Well-Known Member

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    Can she really lose the double-foots in time? I wonder. You all know how I uber her, but I will admit that that double-foot has dogged her for AGES. I'm glad she's trying to fix it, but it may take more time than she's got before Worlds.
  32. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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    Yes, I too think it's a lot to accomplish in a short time but at least she is headed in the right direction and is aware of the work to be done.
  33. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Wagner can be as high as fifth or as low as tenth.

    Barring major disasters, Kostner, Asada, Suzuki and Czisny will beat her.

    She will pretty much have comparable PCS and GOE to Leonova, Korpi, Elene G and Murakami (i.e. low to mid 7s). Between the five of them the placements will really depend on the night.

    Polina K is rather consistent but her PCS is the lowest, being the third Russian. I am not worried about her beating Wagner. Nor do I worry about Makarova or Phanuef (or Lacoste) going clean.

    If Wagner places in the lower half of the top ten, she will need Czisny to medal in order for US to retain that spot - which isn't impossible, but difficult given how Czisny has skated so far this season.
  34. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    just to make it clear, i am pro-wagner--i want ashley on the world team because she's the american with the prettiest layback position. but you really think she's got the same PCS potential as korpi? if korpi is clean, korpi is going to get kostner level PCS. even if ashley is clean with 3f-3t in the short. if ashley has the same PCS as leonova, it'll mean polina K has taken over as russia's #1, and i'm guessing with polina's much bigger (when successful) 3f-3t vs ashley's yet-to-be-seen 3f-3t (where i'll be praying for a tech specialist not to detect a two-footed landing or UR), polina could get better PCS than ashley too.

    i only see murakami and elene G in the ashley ballpark for PCS. i want to be optimistic, really, but i'm not seeing it.
  35. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Korpi, Elene G and Leonova all beat Wagner on PCS at NHK Trophy 3 months ago. However, the scoring was pretty close.

    If Wagner could medal at 4CCs and deliver a strong performance, her PCS can definitely catch up.
  36. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Wagner's PCS scores are lower than Leonova, Korpi and Gedevanishvili. The only skater she outranked consistently in PCS this season is Murakami.

    61.82 7.64 7.50 7.79 7.75 7.96 LEONOVA Worlds 2011
    61.13 7.68 7.46 7.64 7.64 7.79 CZISNY Worlds 2011
    60.08 7.54 7.25 7.54 7.61 7.61 MAKAROVA Worlds 2011
    60.01 7.46 7.18 7.61 7.57 7.68 LEONOVA CoR
    59.94 7.61 7.32 7.50 7.46 7.57 ASADA Worlds 2011
    58.86 7.32 7.07 7.43 7.43 7.54 KORPI Euros
    58.62 7.39 7.11 7.32 7.39 7.43 KORPI CoR
    58.42 7.54 6.86 7.43 7.32 7.36 LEONOVA NHK
    58.06 7.32 6.93 7.29 7.32 7.43 KORPI Worlds 2011
    57.61 7.32 6.86 7.36 7.21 7.25 GEDEVANISHVILI Euros
    57.60 7.14 7.00 7.11 7.39 7.36 KORPI NHK
    56.62 7.14 6.89 7.11 7.04 7.21 MURAKAMI Worlds 2011
    56.33 7.32 6.75 7.07 7.00 7.07 GEDEVANISHVILI NHK
    55.71 7.04 6.57 7.11 6.96 7.14 LEONOVA Euros
    55.48 7.04 6.32 7.32 6.82 7.18 WAGNER SC
    55.32 7.04 6.61 7.04 7.00 6.89 WAGNER NHK
    54.01 6.96 6.61 6.61 6.82 6.75 MURAKAMI CoC
    53.88 7.04 6.25 6.82 6.82 6.75 MURAKAMI TEB
    52.12 6.68 6.21 6.50 6.57 6.61 LEONOVA SC
    50.97 6.64 6.04 6.43 6.29 6.46 GEDEVANISHVILI Worlds 2011
    49.46 6.39 5.96 6.29 6.14 6.14 GEDEVANISHVILI SA
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  37. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    The "2-foot issue" is so passe. OF COURSE, Ashley can and will score very high at Worlds. Ashley will be the first US lady to make podium at Worlds since 2006.
  38. KingaG

    KingaG New Member

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    I disagree with you. Is Ashley not in the same league as Nagasu?? Im sorry, but Nagasu has very blant programs this season and does not perform well. How is Ashley out of her league? Do Nationals tell you something?

    When it comes to not being in the same league with others - I think it is a stretch (except of Mao and Carolina, maybe). All ladies have strenghts and weaknesses. Ashley has a beautiful layback, she is fast (although her basic are not great), energetic and has interesting programs this season. She also shows great attitude. And 3/3 that other ladies have?? Well, how many of them perform them clean when it really matters?? I sense that she has potential to bring the house down, if she skates clean. Antyhing can happen in ladies skating, nothing is written in the stone.
    Also, if Korpi and Czisny get the 'pretty bonus' I don't see the reason why Ashley shouldn't :). She is very beautiful.


    I agree. She has the best outfits out there.
  39. modern_muslimah

    modern_muslimah Well-Known Member

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    The thing with Ashley is that she is a bit like Tonia Kwiakowski. They're both very good skaters who can easily get into the top ten but they're not extraordinary skaters who can easily make it into top five on their own. Ashley will need help from other more talented skaters to make it into the top five. Nothing about Ashley's skating (besides her attack) really stands out at the moment. Alissa has great spins, Kiira has really nice basics, Leonova has just as much attack as Ashley along with a consistent 3-3, Suzuki also has very good basics, speed and a 3-3. Even Nagasu has more speed, better spins and jumps. Now, if any of these skaters don't skate up to their best, then Wagner can beat them. I think that was the lesson learned from Nationals. Ashley was able to win because she was mostly clean in both segments while Alissa made too many mistakes. I won't even get into Nagasu's skating. I don't think the less was that Wagner is equal or better than either.
  40. wonderlen

    wonderlen New Member

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    She has to skate like this again and hopefully win silver or bronze at 4CC and rep up her reputation score. She needs to score over 115+ at 4CC and go from there.

    At world who knows. Neither Mao, Suzuki or Koster are hardly running away with the grand slam score. And she needs to land all ther 7 triples and clean, and if a few of the other ladies flater, she might be lucky enough for bronze. She def have to make up the 5-7 points PCS disavantage form both SP+LP some how.