Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by oleada, Feb 9, 2011.
That does not make sense. Why would they still want to compete in junior in 2005 or 2006? If they were so good and the fed decided to change their age, it must be aiming at olympics, which was 2002 for their first. I don't see any benefit of changing the date and month for that. For the 2006 olympic cycle definitely they would wanted to compete at senior level, especially for the crutial 2005 season, right?
I feel sick about myself now, it's like I have compulsive analysis/investigation syndrome, can't help
Frau, you have truly out-crazied yourself this time.
Benedict_David - are you investigating all of the other skating countries too? I'd be interested to see how many errors their data and media produced. I know I've seen non-Chinese ages incorrectly reported before (Cheltzie Lee's age was incorrectly reported several times prior to, and during, the Olympics, yet I don't consider ISA or Cheltzie to be cheats).
Angelskates, have other skating countries published conflicting data like China has?
I don't know, that's why I ask benedict_David if he was looking into other countries as well. I know my Chinese residence permit had my birthdate incorrect twice, and it wasn't for any reason but carelessness - it also was a complete PITA to change. My first Australian passport also had a mistake that was equally annoying to change. Mistakes are made all the time. I'm just wondering if benedict_David is specifically looking for mistakes only for Chinese skaters, and if so, why? Again, I'd be interested in seeing him look into all skating countries, because I am sure he'd find errors too - and I don't think we'd have a thread such as this for them.
I'm pretty disappointed when posters say errors such as this are "normal" for China. While they may not be uncommon, they're not "normal". China has a huge amount of forms for everything, so more opportunities for errors.
As had been pointed out multiple times, it's the pattern of errors that's problematic. Girls are always reported as older and men as younger. If the errors were random bureaucratic mistakes, there wouldn't be a pattern. And as has been pointed out multiple times, the original discussion arose in the who was eligible for 4CC thread. It was not a witchhunt against the Chinese. Again, these two points have been discussed several times up thread. You are more than welcome to research any skater you wish. Please let us know what you find.
There doesn't need to be a reason for a pattern, a pattern can also be caused by a random coincidence.
Anything is possible, but the statistical odds are against that being the case. However, why don't you do your own fact checking and present your data refuting what has been presented before.
Because I can't be bothered and I don't think it would change people's opinions. If I thought it would make a difference, I would, but I think it's clear, people will believe what's published on the internet over anything else in this case. What evidence would satisfy you (collective you)?
Yes, and if enough monkeys typing on typewriters were given enough time, they could write War and Peace
It's a pattern with the Chinese that has shown its ugly face in other sports as well. As we all know, medals were stripped as recently as late last year (2000 Chinese gymnastics team).
I am hard-pressed to believe that China somehow has more forms per person than the US does. Really hard-pressed.
When all of the data differences are in the direction of allowing a competitor or team to compete, it fails the credibility test for "random error."
The notion that if we looked, we'd find these same kinds of errors in other countries is interesting -- I don't think it is too likely for the other major skating powers -- but it also does not excuse any pattern or practice of behavior in China. Has the US (France, Canada, Japan) allowed an athlete to compete internationally by representing the athlete's age as a different age? I'm not aware of it. I am aware that both N. Korea and China have allowed this situation to happen in gymnastics. And if one (or more) of these countries has done so, bring it forth!
I for one seriously hope that the ISU and/or IOC do something about this. I also have trouble buying into the fiction that these are just data entry errors. After all, errors would not always be in favor of the fed.
To be completely fair, I too agree that Chinese paperwork is a mess and some of these birthdates could be errors. For instance, I saw Cong Han live at Skate America and I actually thought he looked "young" for an 18-year-old. I would have trouble believing he's 21. OTOH, I also had trouble believing Wenjing Sui was 15.
This. I, too, have a hard time believing these numerous age discrepancies are simply "random occurrences."
*deleted* --can't bother to argue anymore.
Angelskates is Australian I believe, though she has lived in China. I don't see her having a vested interest in this at all. I think she merely wants the benefit of a doubt for the accused.
I am also suspicious myself, but I think those with a different perspective should be heard.
err, i meant to delete that, but you saw it anyways lol
It's so easy to tell which posters are not from China, or have very little experience with Chinese paperwork, from this thread. I'm not from China, by the way.
Barbk, in the US you don't need to register intent to have a child, then register agreement to not have another child, you don't need to register address changes at the local police station, you don't need to update your residence permit every year (if you loose it, you need to go back to your home town to reapply). There's a lot more paperwork here because there's a lot more keeping track of the population.
and gosh, i was NOT referring to you!!! and then i read back the thread, knew you guys would think i was referring to you, so i deleted it!! goodness gracious.. so sensitive.
I am not unsuspicious, but again, I ask, what evidence would satisfy those in this thread that the Chinese weren't deliberately cheating? Since when is what is published on the Internet considered the one reliable source?
This. I'm told the record-keeping in China is atrocious.
The same is true for India as well, which isn't surprising considering the ginormous populations of the two countries.
This is interesting, there could be two completely different time coordinate.
Let's go with what you seem to believe in first:
They paired up in 1997.
Hao Zhang was 12 then.
Their age difference is unclear.
[Conclusion, that'd be early 1997. Dan Zhang would be either 11 or 9]
And their first international competition was in 1999 (correct me if I'm wrong)
They are supposed to be 14 and 13 as of July 1, 1999 if their ISU bios are correct. That means they were 12 and 11 when they paired up. That seems to be totally reasonable. Then both of them shouldn't have any age problems.
But there's a parallel universe. Now let's go with what the reporters seem to believe in:
They paired up in 1998, and won their first international competition 10 months later in 1999.
Dan Zhang was 10 in 1998.
There is 5 years difference in their age.
Hao Zhang was born in 1982. He was 1.78m tall when they first paired up, and he end up 1.83m.
These numbers happen to make sense to me, unfortunately.
So basically if we keep "12" and "1997" and throw away "5 years difference", "10 months training", and "1998", we get a result consistent with ISU bios and shows that Zhang/Zhang are innocent, the listed birthdays are errors.
But if we throw away "12" and "1997" and keep everything else, we get a totally different conclusion.
("12" was from Dan Zhang and "1997" is from wikipedia, no source specified)
There were tons of similar paperwork in the Soviet Union (and still are in Russia, although some rules have been relaxed). And never in my life did they get my birth date wrong, or the birth date of anyone I know for that matter . So, anecdotal evidence can go both ways. They did get my father's name wrong in my birth certificate though, so the patronymic in my passport is also wrong. I didn't bother to correct it as it was just one letter
my point stands. It is still easy to tell which posters aren't from China or have little experience with China.
Well, if you pay me well enough, I might consider it.
All developed nations have massive bureaucracy and paperwork. The only difference is what kind. Parents here have to fill out paperwork for birth certificates. They have to file paperwork for a social security number for tax purposes within a year in order to get deductions for having a child. They have to fill out school registrations that require them to produce other paperwork such as immunization records and include mountains of forms (schools send out packets that are can be inch or more thick at the start of every year) or if they don't want their kids in school, they have to do mountains of different paperwork to homeschool in most states. And it goes on and on for life.
If you still don't think the U.S. has lots of forms, come over and try to sign up just to substitute teach in a public school district.
Just the top of my head, I can see two possible alternative theories to the current theory (not saying the theories are actually what happens)
1) Errors are common in Chinese paperwork, but those who don't benefit from paperwork errors would have had these errors fixed. So the remaining errors are for those who benefit from the errors (like ending up being eligible to compete). Kind of like if your teacher took away marks incorrectly in your exam, you would have gotten it corrected; but you would keep your mouth shut if your teacher incorrectly gave you points.
2) Some of these are just errors and some are falsifications.
I don't know. I gave the Chinese gymnasts the benefit of a doubt, and since it happens again, I am more suspicious than before. But 1 and 2 are also possible.
I don't think anybody seriously think that the data published on the Internet are reliable source or whatever, it just happened that the data are published by chinese fed, they show a very interesting pattern, and we've seen something else happen to agree with these data. So they may not be reliable, but they surely enough to raise people's interest. Just that simple.
PD - I never said the US didn't have a lot of paperwork, I said that I think China has more, because China keeps track of its population more. China also has all the paperwork you listed.