2012-2013 TOP 24 SEASON BEST SCORES UPDATED

Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by SamuraiK, Feb 9, 2013.

  1. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    After Euros and 4CC here's the Men's Season Best Top 24 List. I'll update the other categories as soon as the 4CC LPs are finished:

    TOP 24 SEASON BEST: ALL GUARANTEED A GP EVENT FOR 2013-2014 SEASON
    Rank Country Name Score Competition
    01. ESP JAVIER FERNANDEZ 274.87 EC
    02. JPN DAISUKE TAKAHASHI 269.40 GPF
    03. JPN YUZURU HANYU 264.29 GPF
    04. CAN PATRICK CHAN 262.35 COR
    05. JPN TAKAHIKO KOZUKA 253.27 GPF
    06. CAN KEVIN REYNOLDS 250.55 4CC
    07. FRA FLORENT AMODIO 250.53 EC
    08. CZE MICHAL BREZINA 243.52 EC
    09. JPN NOBUNARI ODA 238.34 SC
    10. JPN TATSUKI MACHIDA 236.92 COC
    11. USA ROSS MINER 235.37 NHK
    12. CHN HAN YAN 235.22 4CC
    13. USA MAX AARON 234.65 4CC
    14. USA RICHARD DORNBUSH 234.04 4CC
    15. FRA BRIAN JOUBERT 232.47 EC
    16. JPN TAKAHITO MURA 230.68 TEB
    17. CHN NAN SONG 228.46 4CC
    18. USA JEREMY ABBOTT 227.63 TEB
    19. RUS MAXIM KOVTUN 226.57 EC
    20. RUS KONSTANTIN MENSHOV 223.72 COR
    21. USA NATHAN CHEN 222.00 JGP-AUT (will likely stay junior)
    22. USA JOSHUA FARRIS 218.69 JGP-USA
    23. RUS SERGEI VORONOV 217.61 COC
    24. SWE ALEXANDER MAJOROV 211.88 EC

    Skaters bubbling under that can still score higher at Worlds or Jr. Worlds:
    Rank Country Name Score Competition
    26. KAZ DENIS TEN 203.70 SC
    28. CAN ANDREI ROGOZINE 201.99 4CC
    29. UZB MISHA GE 201.71 4CC
    33. USA JASON BROWN 198.32 JGPF
    34. CZE TOMAS VERNER 197.35 SA
    36. AUT VIKTOR PFEIFER 194.77 EC
    37. CHN BOYANG JIN 194.13 JGP-FRA
    39. FRA CHAFIK BESSEGHIER 189.67 EC
    41. GER PETER LIEBERS 187.96 EC
    43. PHI CHRISTOPHER CALUZA 186.79 4CC
    PeterG and (deleted member) like this.
  2. robinhood

    robinhood Active Member

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    Can Oda or Kozuka still be sent to worlds? Their SB is far better than Mura's and if the skate light outs in their events prior to Worlds a case could be made? Frankly it's a huge risk to send Mura at this point, specially if Takahashi is in the same form of 4cc
  3. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    The decission has been made . I woudln't change it. If they want next season JPN fed can do as the RUS fed and hold on the announcement of the world team until after 4CC but right now it will not be fair for anyone. Plus I dont see the big risk, even if performing poorly Hanyu and Dai will get the 3 spots. The 3rd skater is always there just for the experience.
  4. NMURA

    NMURA Member

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    Mura's performances are not bad at all. Looks like 3 or 4 judges are determined to hold him down. Perhaps they considered that Mura could be a definite obstacle to regain/keep their Olympic spots. I think any #3 skater will be treated harshly at worlds. At least Mura can land the quad and the 3A consistently. He is the most promising #2 man after Sochi. They should give more chances to him regardless of current results or reputations.
  5. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Mura is confirmed for Worlds. I think he's shown incredible improvement this season, his programs are very good (FS in particular is gorgeous) and the PCS he's getting are really retarded.
  6. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    He's getting mandatory "3rd skater" PCS, so it's a moot point if its him the one sent or Kozu or Oda IMO... they will still get lowers PCS than Hanyu or Dai even if they outperform them (like today ).
  7. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    PAIRS UPDATE:

    TOP 24 SEASON BEST: ALL GUARANTEED GP EVENTS IN 2013-2014 SEASON
    Rank Country Name Score Competition
    01. RUS VOLOSOZHAR & TRANKOV 221.45 EC
    02. GER SAVCHENKO & SZOLKOWY 205.24 EC
    03. RUS BAZAROVA & LARIONOV 201.60 GPF
    04. CAN DUHAMEL & RADFORD 199.18 4CC
    05. CAN MOORE-TOWERS & MOSCOVITCH 196.78 4CC
    06. CHN PANG & TONG 192.81 GPF
    07. RUS KAVAGUTI & SMIRNOV 187.99 TEB
    08. ITA BERTON & HOTAREK 187.45 EC
    09. USA DENNEY & COUGHLIN 179.21 COR
    10. FRA JAMES & CIPRES 178.81 EC
    11. USA CASTELLI & SHNAPIR 174.51 NHK
    12. RUS STOLBOVA & KLIMOV 172.55 COC
    13. CHN PENG & ZHANG 167.76 TEB
    14. USA ZHANG & BARTHOLOMAY 167.30 4CC
    15. USA SCIMECA & KNIERIM 163.10 NHK
    16. CAN LAWRENCE & SWIEGERS 162.30 4CC
    17. RUS MARTIUSHEVA & ROGONOV 162.25 NHK
    18. RUS FEDOROVA & MOROSHKIN 161.11 JGPF (will stay junior?)
    19. FRA POPOVA & MASSOT 157.12 EC
    20. RUS DAVANKOVA & DEPUTAT 155.96 JGPF
    21. RUS VIGALOVA & ZAKROEV 153.56 JGPF (will stay junior?)
    22. CAN JONES & BEHARRY 152.78 JGP-AUT
    23. CAN PURDY & MARINARO 149.94 JGPF
    24. CHN YU & JIN 149.20 JGPF


    Pairs bubbling under that can still score higher at Worlds or Jr. Worlds:
    Rank Country Name Score Competition
    25. CHN ZHANG & WANG 145.56 4CC
    28. ITA DELLA MONICA & GUARISE 142.53 COR
    29. RUS GAINETDINOVA & BICH 142.26 JGP-CRO
    30. GER VARTMANN & VAN CLEAVE 141.79 EC
    31. RUS TARASOVA & MOROZOV 137.29 JGP-CRO
    32. GER PROLSS & BLOMMAERT 133.48 JGP-GER
    33. USA SIMPSON & BLACKMER 133.05 JGP-AUT
    34. GBR KEMP & KING 131.51 EC
  8. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    LADIES UPDATE:

    TOP 24 SEASON BEST: ALL GUARANTEED GP EVENTS IN 2013-2014 SEASON
    Rank Country Name Score Competition
    01. JPN MAO ASADA 205.45 4CC
    02. ITA CAROLINA KOSTNER 194.71 EC
    03. RUS ADELINA SOTNIKOVA 193.99 EC
    04. USA ASHLEY WAGNER 190.63 TEB
    05. JPN AKIKO SUZUKI 190.08 4CC
    06. RUS ELIZAVETA TUKTAMYSHEVA 188.85 EC
    07. RUS ELENA RADIONOVA 182.86 JGP-AUT
    08. JPN KANAKO MURAKAMI 181.03 4CC
    09. RUS JULIA LIPNITSKAYA 179.40 TEB
    10. FIN KIIRA KORPI 177.19 COR
    11. USA MIRAI NAGASU 176.68 NHK
    12. CAN KAETLYN OSMOND 176.45 SC
    13. USA CHRISTINA GAO 176.28 4CC
    14. USA GRACIE GOLD 175.03 COR
    15. CHN ZIJUN LI 174.11 NHK
    16. ITA VALENTINA MARCHEI 171.06 EC
    17. USA HANNAH MILLER 168.41 JGPF (will likely stay junior)
    18. RUS ANNA POGORILAYA 167.40 JGPF (will likely stay junior)
    19. USA AGNES ZAWADSKI 166.61 COR
    20. USA ANGELA WANG 162.65 JGP-CRO (will likely stay junior)
    21. JPN SATOKO MIYAHARA 161.65 JGP-USA (will likely stay junior)
    22. GEO ELENE GEDEVANISHVILI 160.52 SC
    23. USA SAMANTHA CESARIO 157.72 JGP-AUT
    23 (tie). JPN HARUKA IMAI 157.72 SA

    Skaters bubbling under that can still score higher at Worlds or Jr. Worlds:
    Rank Country Name Score Competition
    25. FRA MAE-BERENICE MEITE 157.58 TEB
    29. SWE VIKTORIA HELGESSON 155.72 EC
    31. RUS NIKOL GOSVIANI 154.41 EC
    32. USA COURTNEY HICKS 153.77 JGP-USA
    34. ESP SONIA LAFUENTE 152.29 EC
    37. JPN RIKA HONGO 149.38 JGP-FRA
    38. CHN KEXIN ZHANG 148.34 4CC
    39. GER NATHALIE WEINZIERL 147.52 EC
    43. CHN ZIQUAN ZHAO 146.22 JGP-AUT
    45. KOR SO-YOUN PARK 144.77 JGP-TUR
  9. umronnie

    umronnie Active Member

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    Does the top-24 rule refer to GP/ISU championships only? What about Kim's score at NRW, for example?
  10. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Re-posting from another thread:
  11. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately,Senior B scores are not considered in the ISU season best list that is used for GP assignments next season.
  12. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    ICE DANCE UPDATE:

    TOP 24 SEASON BEST: ALL GUARANTEED GP EVENTS IN 2013-2014 SEASON
    Rank Country Name Score Competition
    01. USA DAVIS & WHITE 187.36 4CC
    02. CAN VIRTUE & MOIR 184.32 4CC
    03. FRA PECHALAT & BOURZAT 170.18 GPF
    04. RUS BOBROVA & SOLOVIEV 169.25 EC
    05. RUS ILINYKH & KATSALAPOV 169.14 EC
    06. ITA CAPPELLINI & LANOTTE 165.80 EC
    07. USA CHOCK & BATES 160.42 4CC
    08. USA SHIBUTANI & SHIBUTANI 159.97 4CC
    09. CAN WEAVER & POJE 158.97 COC
    10. CAN GILLES & POIRIER 157.83 4CC
    11. RUS RIAZANOVA & TKACHENKO 157.77 EC
    12. GBR COOMES & BUCKLAND 152.95 EC
    13. RUS STEPANOVA & BUKIN 149.57 JGPF
    14. GER ZHIGANSHINA & GAZSI 147.28 EC
    15. USA HUBBELL & DONOHUE 145.23 TEB
    16. RUS SINITSINA & ZHIGANSHIN 145.08 COR
    17. AZE ZLOBINA & SITNIKOV 144.83 EC
    18. GER KOLBE & CARUSO 142.54 EC
    19. ITA GUIGNARD & FABBRI 142.48 EC
    20. FRA PAPADAKIS & CIZERON 142.08 JGP-AUT
    21. USA KRIENGKRAIRUT & GIULIETTI-SCHMITT 141.41 SA
    22. FRA CARRON & JONES 140.00 EC
    23. CAN ORFORD & WILLIAMS 139.10 4CC
    24. USA HAWAYEK & BAKER 138.61 JGP-GER (will likely stay junior)

    Teams bubbling under that can still score higher at Worlds or Jr. Worlds:
    Rank Country Name Score Competition
    25. USA ALDRIDGE & EATON 138.43 JGP-SLO
    26. GER KOCH & NUCHTERN 136.21 JGP-TUR
    28. RUS KOSIGINA & MOROSHKIN 135.24 JGP-USA
    30. CAN EDWARDS & PANG 135.01 JGP-TUR
    31. RUS ZENKOVA & SINITSIN 134.63 JGP-CRO
    33. EST SHTORK & RAND 132.90 EC
    34. JPN REED & REED 131.04 4CC
    35. UKR HEEKIN-CANEDY & DUN 129.36 EC
    36. CAN BENT & MACKEEN 129.16 JGP-AUT
    38. USA McNAMARA & CARPENTER 128.16 JGP-TUR
  13. Loves_Shizuka

    Loves_Shizuka Well-Known Member

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    The ladies could be an amazing event in London :watch:
  14. Conga

    Conga New Member

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    Can anyone explain why the Junior scores are considered comparable and weigh in exactly the same when the required elements are different? Also, what happens to the skaters bumped out of the top 24 by Junior Worlds scores if those higher ranked Junior skaters are not moving up to Seniors?
  15. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it's fair that skaters gets points for Senior B competitions but the scores don't count; if they don't count the skaters shouldn't get points for it.
  16. NMURA

    NMURA Member

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    Scores at senior B events are generally inflated than ISU events. Largely because the organizers want to give participants better chances to achieve the minimum for ISU championships. Finlandia and NRW are the most generous (outrageous) in this respect. They should never accept those scores for the official SB lists.
  17. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    Then the ISU shouldn't give the skaters points to boost their rankings based on inflated scores.
  18. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    the ISU is not giving out the scores, the judges are
  19. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    Can someone clarify, first 24 season best get at least one GP guaranteed or 2 GP?
  20. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    They are guaranteed at least one event. Only Top 12 at worlds are guaranteed two events. But in practice almost every skater in the SB list eventually receives 2 assignments.
  21. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    I understand that-but if the ISU doesn't count the scores because they feel they are inflated; they shouldn't give them ISU points. They may as well give points for national results too or only give points for ISU Grand Prix, GPF, Euros, 4CC, Worlds and Olympics; which seem the most fair. Then you wouldn't have the world/seasons rankings so askew for teams who go to so many B competitions.
  22. l'etoile

    l'etoile New Member

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    There's a reason why senior B competitions are titled "B." Half the number of judges of any championships and even GP and much smaller venue.
  23. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    The ISU counts ISU and Olympic events, junior and senior, for the PB list. Senior B's aren't ISU events. They are sanctioned, in that skaters can compete in them without hurting their status, unless they skip GP, in which case they can't compete in the GP period, and, practically peaking, as the only way for many skaters to meet TES minimums. GP's are so skewed towards host country skaters.
  24. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Skaters and teams can go to as many B competitions as they wish, but on the ISU World Ranking list, only the top TWO results are counted for each year, and only the top four over a three-year period. So the maximum points accrued in a one-year period would be 500, and 1000 points over a 3-year period. Few non-GP skaters win two B events in one year or four over a three-year period.

    But top skaters like Carolina Kostner do take advantage of the B comps for extra points. Even in years when she wasn't placing on the World podium, Carolina was often #1 on the list because of her two B wins per year. And yes, she often accrued 1000 points in B comps over a 3-year period.

    Since B comps don't put skaters on the Seasons Best list, inflated B scores aren't really an issue.
  25. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    To earn 1000 WS points over three years, a skater would have to win two in the current season and the last season, because the points from two seasons ago are reduced to 70% of their original value. That requires a lot of consistency, and athletes have to pay their way to Senior B's and get no prize money.

    For Seniors, WS points affect GP SP starting order -- inverse of exact WS order -- and early internationals impact WS more for GP. For championships where skaters are grouped, WS impacts the SP draw group, but the only WS rankings that matter are the differences between draw groups. For example, for Worlds, the groups are:

    1-12
    13-15
    everyone else with any WS points
    those with no WS points

    WS points make no difference between the skaters in 1-12 place: each has the same odds of skating first in the penultimate group as last in the final group. It can be a huge deal between #15 and #16, where #16 has much better odds of skating in the first two groups than the coveted first three of the third group, and a huge deal between having no ranking and the smallest ranking.

    WS also impacts GP spots, but only a few skaters in Top 24 WS each year aren't also Top 24 SB, which guarantees a spot.

    Gaining any WS points shows that the skater did well enough in international competition to place 1-5 with an international judging panel. Among skaters training in Europe, the relatively easy access to a Senior B to gain any points that are good for three seasons is a great investment, since it could mean the difference between skating first and 15th at Worlds. Not all 4C's skaters can make those trips, and 4C's functioned as the equivalent of international for many of the small Fed skaters.

    Once minimum scores were introduced, it was impossible for the ISU to not accept Senior B scores toward minimums, even if they hadn't continue to limit GP fields. They had to create a way for more than one-two skaters from all but the strongest skaters to qualify for a championship. The trade-off with additional spots at 4C's is that AUS can send their 1-3 skaters to 4C's, and CRO can send their 2-7 skaters to Senior B's, which are inaccessible except to the wealthiest skaters training on other continents.
  26. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Is this true for all Russian and Japanese skaters? U.S. skaters' and coaches' expenses are covered by USFS, and this seems to be a major reason why more U.S. skaters do not have the opportunity to compete at Senior B's. I believe Skate Canada covers their skaters' travel and accommodation expenses but not the coaches' - can anyone confirm?
  27. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    It is actually more difficult for Junior singles overall to reach the FS minimums, due to the extra element. It is more difficult for many juniors to reach the SP minimum because the required jump might have a lower base than the jump they's have done if there wasn't a restriction -- ie, loop is required and they'd rather do te lutz -- or if the required jump is one they can't do as a triple and have to do as a double or can't do well as a triple and would have a higher total score on the jump (and leave a better impression) if they were able to choose one on their own-- ie a 3Lo instead of a 3F or a 3F instead of a 3Flutz.

    As far as the difference in lengths of the FS programs, there's nothing to stop a senior from completing the overlapping elements in the same amount of time as in a junior program, although, practically speaking, most senior programs end with a spin or two. I read an explanation that there's a point in a skate where lactic acid build-up is acute -- somewhere around the 1.5 and 2 minute mark -- and was one of the reasons for the "slow" sections in programs of old -- and it may be that seniors have an advantage in that they have more time to recover and more chance to land thins after that recovery. Plus they have more time to cram in transitions, since a CH sequence doesn't take 30 seconds.

    I haven't kept track of the differences in Pairs, but in Dance, the rhythms and the CD pattern are quite different. I don't know if the junior CD pattern has ever been harder than the senior CD pattern generally -- specifically different couples have different strengths and preferences. This would be the only apples and ranges comparison technically. Aside from that, why woudn't junior scores, harder to get for the juniors

    PCS-wise, the question would be if the best juniors are getting big PCS lifts by being compared to juniors and/or because they're doing the big jump-laden content that tends to boost PCS regardless of the division skated.

    Junior scores aren't dropped from the SB list, and seniors who are in 25th or lower in that list don't move up, nor do they move up when skaters retire.
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  28. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    The reason they don't count the scores is not because they feel they are inflated. They don't count the scores because those aren't ISU events (which is stupid IMO, but what can you do).

    It wouldn't be far at all. It would be mean that if you're outside the system, you have absolutely no chance of improving your ranking. This is a big problem already and if you removed the possibility of skaters earning points at senior international events, you'd make the situation even worse.

    And nobody is stopping federations from sending skaters to international events.

    It all depends on the federation. Polish federation pays all the expenses but from what I heard, many federations don't.

    And that is a real shame because sometimes it results in GP spots being left unfilled. :(

    (Although that's much less of an issue now with less spots and GP minimum scores introduced)
  29. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    I just did some Google searches to figure out how to create pivot tables in Excel, and I'm still new at this. I know I'm missing Chapman's (AUS) SP score from Crystal Skate -- the results .pdf is now missing the SP info (except the list of judges) -- and I'm sure I've got a few that are mis-categorized. These aren't the number of individual skaters: for example, all five of Australia's Dance entries were O'Brien/Merriman, but it still means trips either the skater or Federation is funding. I have no idea why Monaco is sorting to the top, either.

    I counted the number of segments per discipline for each country at a Senior B. I didn't count Junior competition. Where there is a ".5" (except for Chapman), there was a withdrawal after the SP, but it still means someone showed up. If the Italian Federation is paying for all of those trips, 60 in total, or the German Federation, with 70 in total that a lot of money, and that's not counting any Juniors:

    Sum of Qty Column Labels
    Row Labels Dance Ladies Men Pairs Grand Total
    MON 1 1
    ARM 2 2
    AUS 5 4 10.5 19.5
    AUT 4 23 8 4 39
    AZE 8 2 10
    BEL 9 2 11
    BLR 3 4 11 3 21
    BRA 3 2 5
    BUL 4 3 4 4 15
    CAN 5 2 5 2 14
    CHN 2 2
    CRO 9 3 12
    CZE 8 12 7 27
    DEN 5 6 11
    ESP 2 5 7 14
    EST 4 9 3 16
    FIN 7 21 12 40
    FRA 1.5 5 6 3 15.5
    GBR 9 10 18 37
    GEO 2 2
    GER 9 30 27 3.5 69.5
    GRE 2 2
    HKG 6 6 12
    HUN 8.5 4 2 1 15.5
    IND 2 2
    IRL 3 3
    ISL 1 1
    ISR 4 1 5 3 13
    ITA 11 27.5 17 4 59.5
    JPN 7 5 9 21
    KAZ 3 3
    KOR 6 4 10
    LAT 4 4
    LTU 2 3 3 8
    LUX 7 7
    MEX 2 12.5 2.5 17
    NED 6 2 8
    NOR 13 13
    PHI 4 8 12
    POL 11 3 8.5 3 25.5
    PRK 1 2 3
    PUR 1 1
    ROU 2 5 7
    RSA 3 3
    RUS 13 13 15 8.5 49.5
    SIN 4 4
    SLO 19 19
    SRB 5 5
    SUI 4 10 10 24
    SVK 6 16 1 23
    SWE 11 11 3 25
    THA 5 1 6
    TPE 13 3 16
    TUR 4 3 2 9
    UKR 9 6 8 2 25
    URK 1 1
    USA 7 4 12 8 31
    UZB 1 5 6
    Grand Total 161 383 279.5 54 877.5
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  30. allezfred

    allezfred Prick Admin Staff Member

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    On the other hand there is no automatic -3 GOE for doing a double jump or a double/double combination.
  31. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    Yes, that may compensate somewhat for the other advantages Seniors have.

    2Lz: 2.1 base, up to maximum of 3 (for +3 GOE)
    2Lz with -3 GOE, 1.2

    2Lz/2T: 3.4 base, up to a maximum of 4.9 (for +3 GOE)
    2Lz/2T with -3 GOE: 1.9


    As far as impacting the Top 24 PB list, practically speaking, it's not relevant for the singles currently there:

    Ladies:
    Radionova
    Miller
    Pogorilaya
    Wang (in danger of falling off after Worlds from here down)
    Miyahara
    Cesario

    Men (both will likely fall off after Worlds):
    Chen
    Farris
  32. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Radinova, Cesario, Pogorilaya, Miyahara, and Farris all have the opportunity to raise their PB scores at JW, however.
  33. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    You mean SB (Seasons Best), right? :)

    I expect Jason Brown to raise his SB score as long as he skates well at Junior Worlds -- he possibly could make it up to #24 or higher. He's currently #34 (198.32) and his ISU PB total score was 214.90 at last year's Junior Worlds.

    Courtney Hicks is currently #31 (153.77 is her SB and PB total score) and is likely to move up if she skates well at Junior Worlds. Yasmin Siraj's ISU PB total is 161.75 (2010 JGP in Sheffield, England, but it was a particularly high-scoring event that season, as I recall): http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00012615.htm
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2013
  34. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    Yes, SB :eek:

    I think there are Seniors at the cusp or who are within striking distance of the Top 24 SB list who have more potential upside at Worlds, especially if they hit their SP, resulting in the delayed PCS bumps for the FS. That plus the extra element gives the advantage to the Seniors who deliver SP's without which all but the best skaters won't make the SB for next year's GP selections, if theyh're not already there.

    I hope Brown can get back to scoring that high.
  35. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Farris could potentially stay in the top 24 even with his current SB from Lake Placid, but if he skates like he did at Nationals at JW, I'd expect he'd be able to put up a score a good bit higher, even with it being a junior international event, that would put him higher up the list. But again he's at 22 now and looking at the list, unless Denis Ten and Tomas Verner skate much better than they have all season at Worlds, or someone like Adam Rippon gets named to WTT and puts up a higher number there, or Gatchinski and/or Voronov goes to Worlds instead of Kovtun (seems unlikely) and scores over 218, then even if Josh is not at his best at JW he might stay on the list.
  36. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    Farris's PB is a 221.97 from JW last year, and he wasn't totally clean there, nor did he have/attempt the quad, so he's definitely capable of putting a 222 down. Brown, as discussed, has a PB of 214; if he can nail the triple Axel at least twice out of the three attempts he'll have at JW and skate clean I expect he could raise that to 220 at least. So they may not fall off.

    What's the current score for 24th?
  37. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    #24, Majorov is at 211.88. Farris is #22 at 218.69 and Chen is #21 at 222.00.

    When I first looked at it, I thought Majorov was #25, and he is capable of gaining another six points to overtake the person in front of him (Voronov, with 217.21), but that's moot, since he's already in the Top 24, with chances to go higher, having made a strong impression at Euros.

    Ten, Rogozine, and Ge are long-shots to overtake Majorov and Voronov, so, you're right, unless Rippon (210.47) is appointed to WTT, and he'd have to skate the way he's capable of to catch up.

    Ladies are far less certain, because there's a cluster around the cut-off:
    17 168.41 Hannah MILLER USA ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
    18 167.40 Anna POGORILAYA RUS ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
    19 166.61 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
    20 162.65 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 06.10.2012
    21 161.65 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
    22 160.52 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
    23 157.72 Haruka IMAI JPN ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
    23 157.72 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012
    24 157.58 Mae Berenice MEITE FRA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012

    -->> Current cut-off

    25 157.27 Alena LEONOVA RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
    26 156.52 Ksenia MAKAROVA RUS ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
    27 156.33 Leah KEISER USA ISU JGP Bosphorus 2012 21.09.2012
    28 155.72 Viktoria HELGESSON SWE European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
    29 155.08 Amelie LACOSTE CAN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 10.02.2013
    30 154.41 Nikol GOSVIANI RUS European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
    31 153.77 Courtney HICKS USA ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
    32 153.32 Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
    33 152.29 Sonia LAFUENTE ESP European Championships 2013 26.01.2013

    Wang, as an alternate, is vulnerable, less than five points above the current cut-off. Meite needs less than a point to bump down Imai and Cesario, and is within a three points of Gedevanishvili and four points of Miyahara. Viktoria Helgesson is within a few points, and I suspect having just missed Top 10 at Worlds last year, she'll aim for it to earn a second spot for Sochi, which would give her sister a shot and give her some safety, if the Olsson continues to improve. Meite has the same incentive, if Silete is healthy next near. Either Leonova or Gosviani could do it, and Lafuente has an outside shot.
  38. Sasha'sSpins

    Sasha'sSpins Well-Known Member

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    It is interesting that Mirai is the number 2 U.S. woman on that list-but likely like last year she'll only get one GP spot. And especially after whatever goes down at Worlds.
  39. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    Maybe, but it's more likely that she'll be invited to a second, like almost Top 24 skater on the SB list.
  40. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Majarov's 211+ at Euros was an UNUSUALLY HIGH score from him, honestly, he rarely skates that well, I'd be surprised if he moves up the list after Worlds. Gatchinski and Vornov are both capable of scoring well above their current SB scores, but it's unlikely either will even be at Worlds as Kovtun is the likely entry and is already higher up the list. Rogozine and Ge were pretty much perfect at 4CCs to get those scores of just over 200, I don't think either will make the cut. Ten is capable of 230+ but obviously he is still hampered by his injury if 4CCs was any indication, and he just tends to struggle in competition as of late, so I would guess he does not get a new SB at Worlds. As for WTT idk if Rippon would even be sent, especially where Dornbush did well at 4CC, Aaron needs the ranking points, and if someone like Farris were to win JW they might give him a shot too. But maybe USFS would give Rippon the spot just to help his chances for GP assignments next season. Farris I think is likely to stay in the top 24 with his current number, so getting a new SB at JW is not so imperative for him as it is for Brown, but certainly if he skates well, a score as high as in the 230s is possible, for Brown maybe not quite so high, but certainly high enough to make the top 24 you would think.

    For the ladies I think Wang should be fine, most of the ladies below her won't be at Worlds, so 5 people would need to pass her to get bumped off, Gosviani/Leonova (or whoever the 3rd Russian at Worlds will be - but it will only be one) are capable but it's not a sure thing, Helgesson maybe could but she hasn't been skating so well recently, Kexin Zhang could but her PCS are going to make it hard and she's also just off the injury, I don't think Lafuente can score that high with her content, Meite could but she'd need to skate pretty much clean at Worlds to do that which is a big ask, so realistically that leaves Hicks and Cesario. So even if the 3rd Russian entrant, Hicks, and Cesario were to overtake Wang's score, Wang would still make the cut, and actually one more person could overtake her then still. Cesario will likely need a SB over 160 at JW to stay in the top 24 but she's usually pretty consistent so I think there's good odds she can do it.
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2013