2012-13 US assignments speculation

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Jan 26, 2012.

  1. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2009
    Messages:
    2,063
    I thought top 24 SB scorers pretty much get 2 spots in the GP...
     
  2. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    8,902
    It's going to be hard for a lot of skaters to get second spot. :( Because of the reduced number of entries and the fact that some federations no longer have skaters with automatic entries, skaters who formerly got a spot on their own but no longer do so will all compete for host picks, if they are from Chn/Can/etc.
     
  3. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    8,902
    I've just taken a quick look. Assuming the rules stay the same (big if), seems like the top 12 at worlds and top 24 seasons best skaters will take up 37 to 43 spots, depending on whether top skaters will do a third event (and Miyahara doing JGP). Then there are about 8 skaters who may still be in top 24 world ranking that don't have a spot and need one. Then second spots will probably go to girls like Sotnikova. Plus host picks. There won't be much left. :(

    I think Gao may end up needing a host pick! :eek:

    I haven't really calculated the new top 24 world ranking, and I was just adding candidates who will likely remain top 24. (So I can be wrong.)
    And if more top skaters don't do a third event, then there's a bit more leeway. And then there are withdrawals, so girls like Lam and Cesario may still get one.

    Anyway, having only 10 slots for GP sucks. :(

    ETA: Men

    I think there are about 44 slots taken up by men with top 12 at worlds, top 24 seasson's best or world ranking. Whether men that have one spot will get a second spot will depend on host picks and whether top men take a third slot. Last year only one man did a third event, so things look better for Rippon, Miner and Farris than the ladies ( the season's best and world ranking list also don't differ as much).
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2012
  4. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2002
    Messages:
    5,964
    I really feel bad for Armin. I hope he manages to get one. And I hope the USFSA doesn't use one of the host picks to yet again prop up Dornbush unless he does fabulously well at summer comps and perhaps a Senior B.
     
    flutzilla1 and (deleted member) like this.
  5. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,268
    Dornbush has 1 GP garaunteed whereas Armin has none, so I doubt that is likely to happen, unless Armin manages to get a GP anyways and they want to give Dornbush a 2nd. It's more likely they might give a SA to someone like Farris or Brown should they both move up and not manage to get 2 assignments off the bat (they should be able to, but again, space is tight), or to a skater with no assignment who does well in summer competitions (maybe Aaron, Messing, Carriere, Razzano, Mahbanoozadeh if he doesn't already get one, or Mroz if he gets it back together). I just hope if they move up, Farris and Brown get 2 assignments ahead of someone like Rippon or Dornbush, they deserve it more after last season honestly.
     
  6. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2002
    Messages:
    6,560
    Armin and SA is an interesting thing- he's already been assigned there 2 years running, so logic would dictate that its someone else's turn. But, since he *was* pewter medalist at Nationals and probably won't be getting any other GP spots, USFS might assign him for a 3rd year in a row just so he has something. Same with Razzano who went last year, finished 5th at Nationals, and isn't high enough to get any other spots. But knowing USFS, they'll assign Weir and Lysacek with someone like Abbott in hopes of selling tickets. :p
     
  7. sigrid

    sigrid New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2006
    Messages:
    35
    I did it for the men:

    1- Chan 4080
    2- Takahashi 3476
    3- Hanyu 3088
    4- Brezina 2751
    5- Abbott 2679
    6- Gachinski 2625
    7- Kozuka 2592
    8- Contesti 2435
    9- Fernandez 2331
    10- Amodio 2219
    11- Rippon 2013
    12- Verner 1936
    13- Van der Perren 1893 (retiring?)
    14- Joubert 1859
    15- Majorov 1851
    16- Ten 1850
    17- Oda 1825
    18- Miner 1682
    19- Machida 1442
     
  8. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    31,130
    Thanks, sigrid! :)

    By my calculations:
    19 Yan CHN 1,667
    20 Dornbush USA 1,547
    21 Brown USA 1,452
    22 Machida JPN 1442
    23 Song CHN 1,408
    24 Mura JPN 1,337
    25 Farris USA 1,317

    Maybe it's time to start the annual "Grand Prix Pre-announcement Thread" in GSD for early speculation/discussion of all (not just U.S.) skaters?

    ETA: Last year the ISU World Standings were updated for the new season around May 11.

    According to a post I saw over at Golden Skate, there will be 4 U.S. ladies in the ISU World Standings top 24 after they are updated for the new season - Czisny, Wagner, Nagasu and Zawadzki; Zhang and Flatt will drop out of the top 24.

    By my calculations, before (2011-12) & after (2012-13) the update:
    Czisny 3,421 --> 2,650
    Wagner 2,223 --> 1,901
    Nagasu 2,817 --> 1,804
    Zawadzki 1,833 --> 1,553
    Zhang 2,193 --> 1,315
    Gao 1,542 --> 1,098
    Flatt 2,347 --> 1,011
    Lam 871 --> 796
    Gold 700 --> 700
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2012
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,268
    Probably but hopefully not. Razzano shouldn't get SA until he upgrades his combo from 3t-3t :shuffle:. I sort of don't understand his huge FS score at Nationals either, I get that Aaaron, Messing, Brown, Farris, etc all kind of bombed the FS, but I didn't see how he was so much higher than Carriere and Mahbanoozadeh who skated well and are stronger components wise (or at least should be). Anyways if Armin manages to get an assignment on his own, SA will likely go to someone else, but if he doesn't get any initial assignments, I think he is the logical pick for the host spot, granted he does well over the summer. USFS owes it to him after sending Ricky Dornbush to 4CC when he clearly wasn't in a good place with his skating and finished 9 spots below Armin at Nationals (and the 13th place was generous, that FS wasn't worth 150 when Aaron, Messing, Brown, and Farris were scoring in the 130s for similar skates).

    Again though, if Farris/Brown move up and don't get 2 spots on their own, the host pick should go to one of them, honestly, they are the best hope for the future and need to be getting exposure now because who know how long Jeremy will stick around for and if Lysacek and Weir will even come back convincingly or at all. Does anyone know what Farris and Brown's plans are re: GP vs JGP? Or how likely they are to get 2 assignments without a host pick should they move up?
     
  10. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2002
    Messages:
    5,964
    Can WTT accrue any points for anyone?

    (And thanks for the computation, Sigrid!)
     
  11. Polymer Bob

    Polymer Bob New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2007
    Messages:
    2,667
    I know that personal bests and season's bests count as official. I don't know about ranking points.
     
  12. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2002
    Messages:
    5,964
    I think I need a cheat sheet that shows which competitions get credit for PB, SB, and RP (and for RP, which category) -- way too confusing, at least once you get beyond the obvious ones.
     
  13. toddlj

    toddlj The sort of fan who gets up at 3am to watch

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2006
    Messages:
    1,114
    Yes please!

    (does KVDP's retirement mean that those below him move up?)
     
  14. jaci

    jaci New Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2011
    Messages:
    10
    Why can't Farris do both JGP's and GP's? I don't believe the rule changed yet?
     
  15. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    31,130
    Paging HisWeirness! ;)

    No, I believe... unless the Belgian federation asks the ISU to remove KVDP's name from the ISU Worlds Standings list.

    Only pairs can do both Junior and Senior GP in the same season.
     
  16. HisWeirness

    HisWeirness LYUBOV HAS BEEN FREED!

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2007
    Messages:
    11,619
    :lol: I am at work now and was just checking out this thread over lunch. ;).

    I can post both the Cheat sheet for barbk and the pre-announcement GP thread this evening.

    Of course, Sylvia feel free to start the pre-GP thread now if you wish. :)
     
  17. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    8,902
    So far this is what I have
    Up to 3 events
    Chan
    Daisuke
    Hanyu
    Joubert
    Amodio
    Brezina

    2 events
    Ten
    Abbott
    Javier
    Contesti
    Kozuka
    Reynolds

    1 gp guaranteed
    Pluschenko
    Gachinski
    Oda
    Song
    Verner
    Miner
    Yan Han
    Farris
    Rippon
    Mura
    Brown
    Majorov
    Machida
    Dornbush
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2012
  18. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    31,130
    Seems like jlai can't wait for a new thread! :lol:

    Thanks, HisWeirness - maybe we can collaborate? I'll PM you some stats later.
     
  19. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    8,902
    Ladies
    Up to 3 gp
    Kostner
    Leonova
    Suzuki
    Wagner
    Murakami
    Mao

    2 gps
    Zhang Kexin
    Marchei
    Makarova
    Elene G
    V Helgesson
    Silete

    1gp
    Julia Lipnitskaia
    E Tuktamysheva
    Czisny
    Zhang
    Mirai
    Gold
    Sotnikova
    Korpi
    Biryukova

    Ppolina K
    Polina S
    Shoji
    Li Ji Jun
    Imai
    Meite
    Joshi
    Hecken
    Agnes Z
    Lacoste

    Cynthia is 25TH and Miki may not compete, so she may get 1 (that's not host pick)
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2012
  20. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    Messages:
    4,927
    jlai, why are some of the names capitalized (e.g., Rippon, Suzuki)? Does that have a special meaning? Thanks!
     
  21. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    8,902
    Sorry, I am typing on my Nook and am fighting my keyboard
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2012
  22. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2002
    Messages:
    5,964
    Thanks, HisWeirness! Molto confusing.

    And thanks, jlai.

    Funny, but I'd rather see everyone in the "1 GP Guaranteed" ladies group than anybody in the "2 GPs Guaranteed" group! (The 3 GP group all looks pretty good.)
     
  23. query5

    query5 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2009
    Messages:
    672
    this is what i think should happen,

    the top 6 skaters would get 3, 7-12 going to worlds would get 2
    everyone else would only get one. that way most eligible 1 slots skaters would get a least one,
    no one outside the top 12 at senior worlds would get two until gets back to 12 in gp
     
  24. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2002
    Messages:
    6,560
    Did this right after Worlds over 3 different threads now on page 4 of The Trash Can...just need to update ladies/pairs/dance with skaters in 24 after WR purging...

    MEN

    Seeded, guar. 2, poss. 3: Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu, Joubert, Amodio, Brezina

    Places 7-12 at Worlds, guaranteed 2: Ten, Abbott, Fernandez, Contesti, Kozuka, Reynolds

    Top 24 SB (currently), guar. 1: Plushenko, Gachinski, Oda, Song, Verner, Contesti, Miner, Han Yan*, Farris*, Rippon, Mura, Brown*

    Top 24 World Rankings who aren't listed above (currently, may change), guar. 1: Machida, Majorov, Dornbush. (ETA: removed Schultheiss who is falling out of top 24)

    *= junior, would need to move up to seniors internationally


    LADIES

    Seeded, guar. 2, poss. 3: Kostner, Leonova, Suzuki, Wagner, Murakami, Asada

    Places 7-12 at Worlds, guaranteed 2: Kexin Zhang, Valentina Marchei, Ksenia Makarova, Elene Gedevanishvili, Viktoria Helgesson, Yretha Silete

    Top 24 SB (currently), guar. 1: Lipnitskaia*, Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova, Czisny, Zhang, Nagasu, Gold*, Korpi, Biryukova, Korobeynikova, Shelepen*, Miyahara*, Shoji*, Zijun Li*

    *= junior, would need to move up to seniors internationally

    Top 24 World Rankings who aren't listed above (currently, may change), guar. 1: Miki Ando?, Yuna Kim?, Haruka Imai, Cynthia Phaneuf, Mae Berenice Meite (probably Joshi Helgesson, Sarah Hecken, Flatt falling out of top 24)

    PAIRS

    Seeded (guar. 2)- Savchenko/Szolkowy, Volosozhar/Trankov, Takahashi/Tran, Pang/Tong, Duhamel/Radford, Bazarova/Larionov

    7-12 (guar. 2) - Kavaguti/Smirnov, Denney/Coughlin, Sui/Han, Marley/Brubaker, Berton/Hotarek, DubeWolfe

    Top 24 SB (guar. 1) - Zhangs, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Stolbova/Klimov, Yu/Jin, Lawrence/Swiegers, Vise/Baldwin, Vartmann/Van Cleave, Davankova/Deputat, Bobak/Beharry, James/Cipres

    Top 24 WR (guar. 1)- Hausch/Wende, Gerboldt/Enbert, Kemp/King, Dong/Wu


    DANCE

    Seeded top 6 (guar. 2)- Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, Pechalat/Bourzat, Weaver/Poje, Ilynikh/Katsalapov, Cappellini/LaNotte

    7-12 (guar 2) - Bobrova/Soloviev, Shibutani/Shibutani, Riazanova/Tkachenko, Hubbell/Donohue, Zhiganshina/Gazsi, Huang/Zheng

    Top 24 SB (guar 1) - Sinitsina/Zhiganshin, Stepanova/Bukin, Yanovskaya/Mozgov, Coomes/Buckland, Carron/Jones, Aldridge/Eaton, Tobias/Stagniunas, Papadakis/Cizeron, Chock/Bates, Orford/Williams, Allesandrini/Vaturi, Zlobina/Sitnikov, Nazarova/Nikitin

    Top 24 WR (guar 1)- Pushkash/Guerreiro, Monko/Khaliavin, Ralph/Hill, Gorshkova/Butikov, Reed/Reed, Paul/Islam, Hurtado/Diaz
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2012
  25. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2003
    Messages:
    11,889
    I believe Monko / Khaliavin will drop out of the top 24 World Rankings, since they didn't compete this season, they lose 2009-2010 points and get only 70% of their 2010-2011 points. Since they didn't compete this season, they're not on the Seasons Best list. They won't have any guarantees and may have to settle for a host pick.
     
  26. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    8,902
    I thought Majorov will have 1851 points? (That should be okay for top 24?)

    I kind of assumed Miyahara will stay junior, so I didn't include her. I quickly calculated the points and I thought Meite, Joshi, Hecken and Agnes and LaCoste will round up top 24(amont those not in top 12 at worlds or top 24 seasons best). Phaneuf is 25th. Please can someone check my Math?


    Sorry, didn't realize you two posted while I was fighting my Nook keyboard while typing. Feel free to start a new thread!
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2012
  27. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2002
    Messages:
    6,560
    Oops, correct, sorry I missed seeing his name in sigrid's list above.
     
  28. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2009
    Messages:
    2,063
    Are Lipnitskaya and Miyahara old enough to compete on the GPs?
     
  29. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2005
    Messages:
    2,033
    Yes, if the rules don't get changed at this year's ISU congress (there's a proposal to increase the minimum age for GP entrants from ISU age 14 to ISU age 15.)
     
  30. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    31,130
    Thanks for starting a new thread in GSD! :): 2012-13 Grand Prix Pre-announcement Thread