2012-13 US assignments speculation

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Jan 26, 2012.

  1. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    There's a risk for Aldridge/Eaton remaining Junior internationally next season. All three of the top Russian teams will still be junior-eligible, and if they all stay junior (a real possibility), A/E could wind up like the Shibutanis in their last JGP season: pushed off the JW 2013 podium. Even if the top Russian team goes senior, Russia has a plethora of young talented teams that could unexpectedly "blossom" at JW.
  2. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't look like that hurt the Shibutanis at all. (Though I tend to think that their results were directly affected by the glaring height disproportion much more than their ice dance skills.)
  3. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    Yes, there's always that kind of risk. On the other hand, Lichtman/Copley, the last year's Jr. US champions and JWC bronze medalists, just like A/E are this year, had a rather unremarkable senior debut season (7th finish at COC GP assignment, and the 10th finish at nationals).

    You never know. I guess the only thing A/E can control is to focus on improving their skills regardless of which circuit they skate. They also have a world-class choreographer (Camerlengo) and excellent coaching team headed by Angelica Krylova at their corner. ;)

    Go Aldridge/Eaton!! :cheer:
  4. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    Another factor in the decision is that if they want to stay on the JGP they'd also have to stay juniors for nationals since the SDs are now different, unless they prepare two completely different SDs.

    My personal opinion is that if they want any shot at the 2014 Olympics they'll have to skate senior at next year's nationals, which would mean skating senior internationally.
    gkelly and (deleted member) like this.
  5. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Do A/E have any real chance at getting a berth to the 2014 Olympics? There are a great many senior teams ahead of them who aren't about to quit before 2014.

    2018 would be a more realistic goal for them.
  6. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    ITA. :)
  7. Jayar

    Jayar Well-Known Member

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    They have said that they cbelieve that they could handle doing both.
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    If Farris and Brown decided to do GP, would they be able to each get 2 assignments or only 1? I assume this would factor into their decision making, already they are ahead of Dornbush, Mroz, Mahbanoozadeh on the SB list, and Farris is even ahead of Rippon now and likely to stay in the top 24 after Worlds (Brown could also feasibly, but he is closer to the cutoff so there's more of a chance he gets bumped off if some ppl below him currently really deliver at Worlds, off the top of my mind I can think of Joubert, KVDP, Contesti but there might be others i'm forgetting). WS for both is somewhere in the 30s I believe. So my question is, if they stay in the top 24 for SB after Worlds and chose to do GP, are they likely to get 2 assignments or just one? I feel like they should both be able to get 2 but idk what the protocol is and now with the reduced spots and further, is there a chance skaters out of the top 24 for SB (Dornbush, Mroz, Mahbanoozadeh) get 2 assignments or no? Or even if they did, would they be behind Farris and Brown in terms of pecking order because of this?
  9. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    ^^^ Who knows? I think only Abbott, Rippon and Miner are looking fairly certain for 2 GP assignments at this point. There are way more deserving U.S. men than GP spots available, again.

    Reposting from another thread since it's relevant to this one :):
    Also in the mix should be Nina Jiang (S11) who has landed 3F before, McKinzie Daniels (S13, who placed ahead of Siraj at Nationals), and Courtney Hicks as long as she has recovered fully from her injury (ditto for Samantha Cesario since she has one more season of ISU Junior age eligibility left).
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2012
  10. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

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    I'm just hoping that for the JGP spots that the USFSA keeps a closer eye on summer comps. Very nice that ISU junior-age skaters do well at Nationals, but the summer comps ought to influence JGP selection more than they seem to. A lot can change with a junior-level skater in six months, and relying almost solely on last January's results when assignments are made in July, August and September is not especially helpful.
  11. toddlj

    toddlj Well-Known Member

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    Well, unless the rules change from last year, they will be guaranteed one, depending on where they end up in the world standings or seasons best. They are 31/34 on the world standings, but are 16/19 on Seasons Best list... however they may be pushed down by men skating at worlds. If they can hold in the top 24, considering they medaled at Junior worlds, I think they'll get their 2 assignments.

    Here are the rules from last year:

    b) Skaters/couples with an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24 (after season 2010/11) and skaters/couples with seasonal best scores in the top 24 (for season 2010/11) who do not hold an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24, will be guaranteed one (1) event if they do not otherwise meet the
    criteria listed in paragraphs 2.1 or 2.2 above and the minimum score.

    c) Medallists from the ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2011 and the medallists from the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2010/11 will be included in the selection process. Skaters/couples who have stated their intention to skate as Senior in 2011/12 might be included in the
    Grand Prix event(s) if they fulfil the requirements of the minimum score.

    ETA: I also think they'll get two assignments especially because they are ahead of all the other US men (except Abbott/Rippon/Miner) on the SB list AND the World Standings.
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2012
  12. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Remember that the ISU World Standings should shift around a bit after the 2009-10 results are purged (although Brown has no points to lose from that season and Farris' ranking is not likely be affected much, if at all).

    Here's what I posted in the 2012 Junior Worlds forum after the Men's FS:
    Last year's men's bronze medalist from Junior Worlds, Sweden's Alexander Majorov, only received 1 initial GP assignment. The U.S. men received 14 GP slots (including 2 for Lysacek as a "comeback skater") and who knows if Lysacek and/or Weir may return?
  13. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    Has Brown decided to stay Junior or move on?
  14. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    We don't know yet. I was just thinking aloud.
  15. Mayra

    Mayra Well-Known Member

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    I'd rather see Farris and Brown on the GP. :shuffle: Weir and Lysacek can save their posturing and play "pretend comeback" for an extra 15minutes of fame at Nationals. :p
  16. SkateFan66

    SkateFan66 Active Member

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    Do we know for a fact that Lysacek receive two GP assignments as a "comeback skater." IIRC, based on Lysacek's ISU ranking, he would have been eligible for 1 GP assignment. He was given an assignment to TEB. The USFSA gets to select it's participants at Skate America. Therefore, Lysacek could have received his 2 GP assignments last year (TEB & SA) w/o using the 'comeback skater' rule.
  17. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    I don't know for a fact.

    From the 2011-12 ISU Grand Prix Announcement document:
    In any case, Lysacek will have not an ISU World ranking after his 2009-10 season points are purged at the end of this season (he's ranked #28 now), and so Skate America as a host pick would appear to be his only option if he wants to compete on the Grand Prix. But considering the history of the ISU's fuzzy language in such documents, who knows? :D
  18. SkateFan66

    SkateFan66 Active Member

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    Based on my reading of the rule, Lysacek would be eligible for 2 GP assignments. He was World Champion in 2009 & Olymic Champion in 2010. He did not compete for two seasons. Lysacek was assigned 2 GP events last year; however, he did NOT compete. The rule states that "subsequent" to the comeback season, the skater will receive GP assignments based on the official list (seeding/ ranking). Since Lysacek did not compete last year, the provision of the rule applicable to GP assignments after the comeback season do not apply.
  19. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    realistically, I see the us pairs and ice dance in juniors to stay in JGP
    Gold will be moving seniors like Zawadski. A good advantage for the judges to get more familiar with her for 2014

    Brown can go to senior GP also as he can medal but Farris will probably stay in JGP , Farris is a bit lower compared to Brown's development , he still needs to catch up with Brown in terms of artistry and finesse and doesn't yet have the all around skating skills.
  20. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Gee, thanks for continuing to stir the pot with your Brown/Farris comments. (Close your eyes, pinky166! :lol:)
  21. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    ^

    lol, what ?
    but I really like Brown, I have never been excited by a men's junior skater for a while, you feel his energy and just want to skate with Brown, I don't feel anything from Farris, I respect if others may like Farris style but he is not my cup of tea. As I said before Farris will become the new Ross Miner or Dornbush, once he goes seniors he will be left behind and in the shadows
    Farris is just too boring and forgettable.

    look at Brown he has been rewarded and judges love him even without the
    harder jumps yet, just imagine if he gets them next season, Im not yet that optimistic but he can pretty much beat most seniors GP once he gets the quad and axel maybe even Chan.
  22. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Of course you're are entitled to your opinions, but I dislike the fact that you are repeating similar "trollish" comments from other threads ("Skaters moving up from JGP to senior GP?" for example) and now derailing this one.

    To further clarify: If you (or anyone else) are going to gush about your favorite skaters, why not do it without tearing down others in the process?
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2012
    Jayar and (deleted member) like this.
  23. toddlj

    toddlj Well-Known Member

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    These are all great points.

    I guess I'm just assuming the US will have 5-7 men who get two spots (Abbott, Rippon, Miner will be three of them) and even with the possibility of Weir and Lysacek too, I still think there will be other US guys with two assignments. I guess Dornbush is a consideration, but who would be next? Brown/Farris are high on both lists.

    Anyway, I'm not saying Brown/Farris are a lock for two spots, just that the odds seem pretty good for one or both of them.
  24. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    My guess is that Farris will go senior, in hopes of qualifying for Sochi, and Brown will stay Junior, in hopes of getting his 3A before having to go Senior. When do Brown & Farris have to declare one way or the other, for senior or junior? August?
  25. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Josh has done 3 seasons on the JGP already, has won 3 golds at individual events, qualified for 2 JGPFs, medaled at one, and just won silver at JW with a score that put him above most of the top senior men (Rippon, Dornbush, Mahbanoozadeh, Mroz, Razzano) in the US on the SB list. The only way I see him staying on the JGP another season is if he is really focused on getting the 4t out in competition and doesn't want to try it at senior events where the stakes are so high and mistakes on that jump will likely cost him good finishes. But if I were him, I'd move up to the GP. If the judges are handing him scores of 221+ in junior competitions I think it means he's ready for the senior ranks, I mean, if he skates like he did at JW, there's a good chance he could be beating skaters like Dornbush and Mahbanoozadeh, maybe even Miner and Rippon, at GP events next season, especially if he starts putting the 4t in his programs, and it sounds like his 4t is nearly competition ready already.

    Brown can go to GP if he wants, but I highly doubt he will medal with no 3a. And actually, I think it's more likely he stays on the JGP than Farris because he has only done 2 seasons on the JGP, has only gone to one JGPF, and may want to get the 3a out in competition on the junior ranks where he can fall on it, or omit it, and still be able to medal and qualify for the final.
  26. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Sometime in the spring, ahead of the ISU Grand Prix selection meeting (last year's meeting was held in late June; the ISU Congress meets this year in mid-June so the selection meeting could take place beforehand?).
  27. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I do wonder if Jason has enough motivation to keep going in junior GP. He has done two years of that and won the final already. Besides he can do well in next year's JGP without putting in a 3A (which is what he did this year).

    Whichever way Jason is more motivated (sr or jr) I hope he will choose that road.
  28. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Both Brown and Farris have been skating Senior domestically for the past two seasons. If Farris wants to move up to Seniors internationally, he needs to let USFS know so they can submit him for GP invitations at the meeting in June. As both a JGPF and JW medalist and #16 on the SB list, Farris has a good shot to get two GP events.

    Brown is 19th on the SB list and is the JGPF champion and a JW medalist. He also might get two GP events if he wants to move up. I agree that it's probably better for him to stay JGP until he can achieve a stable 3A, but it's up to him to decide.
  29. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    If Brown decides to return to the JGP next season, why would he NOT try to compete with a 3A?

    Of course, that goes without saying. :) Then again, maybe Brown will be motivated to visit Istanbul, Turkey, which is one of the JGP locations this fall. :cool:
  30. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for cross-posting my post here, Sylvia! :) I completely forgot about Nina Jiang and Courtney Hicks...that makes the decisions even tougher!

    I agree with those saying Farris would probably be better off on the SGP next season, as his 3A is consistent and his quad is coming along. Brown would probably be better off on the JGP again, since GP spots for U.S. senior men look to be very competitive (again).
  31. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Farris-Brown has the potential to be a Lysacek-Weir rivalry 2.0 anyways. I'd rather Evan and Johnny watch then pretend they are actually coming back. Since JW there has been a lot of banter about Farris and Brown, who have actually been competing against each other since they were little tykes, and it really reminds me of Evan-Johnny banter. If those two keep up their success on the senior ranks, we may see something of a full-fledged Lysacek-Weir rivalry 2.0 develop. That would surely be interesting.

    Anyways I think Farris should for sure stay in the top 24 after Worlds, 8 people would have to pass him for him to get bumped off and the only skaters currently below him competing at Worlds who I can really see scoring 222 points or more at Worlds are Joubert and Rippon, and maybe Ten and Contesti if he skates a great SP which he never seems to... As for Jason, only 5 have to pass him for him to be bumped off, and 215 could be feasibly broken by Contesti, KVDP, Ten, Reynolds, and Voronov, plus Joubert and Rippon. He still has a shot to stay on the list though because most of the skaters I mentioned are very inconsistent.
  32. icemusings

    icemusings New Member

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    Ladies:
    Gold--with a World Junior medal and a top score for the season, she'll be eligible for Grand Prix assignments and I expect she'll go senior.
    Cesario and Lam could both return to the Junior Grand Prix. Both would be unlikely to receive senior assignments (possibly a senior B) so they may elect to go this route.
    Hicks was likely planning on making her Grand Prix debut this fall but coming back from the injury, the Junior Grand Prix is likely her safest best.

    I would assign Hicks, Cesario, Lam, Angela Wang, Ashley Cain, Hannah Miller, Barbie Long and Mariah Bell for initial assignments. If any of these skaters decline or fail to medal, next on the list would be Nina Jiang, Leah Keiser, Yasmin Siraj, Polina Edmunds, Amanda Gelb and Madison Vinci.

    Men:
    If he's serious about Sochi, Brown needs to move to the Grand Prix. He's already competed at nationals as a senior for two years and won a World Junior medal and the Junior Grand Prix Final. He needs to get the triple axel consistent over the summer and put it out in competition. With a triple axel and a quad, Farris should move up as well.

    I would assign Nathan Chen, Harrison Choate, Lukas Kaugars, Jay Yostanto, Troy Tomasello, Andrew Nagode, David Wang and Emmanual Savary. If any of them don't medal, next on the list would be James Schetlich, Spencer Howe and Kevin Shum and there would also be room for skaters like Shotaro Omori who competed on the JGP but didn't qualify for nationals.

    Pairs:
    Denney and Frazier have already said they plan to compete as seniors next year and with the US title and a respectable 4th place finish at Worlds, they seem ready to move up. Duarte and Grafton are aging out of Juniors.

    I would give initial assignments to Simpson/Blackmer, Calalang/Sidhu, Pfund/Reiss, Aaron/Settlage, de la Mora/Wilson, Oltmanns/Santillan and Goldberg/Dolkiewicz. If they move up to juniors, Zaitsev/Utah Stevens would be next on the list. This leaves plenty of room for new teams who are age eligible to land an assignment, especially later in the JGP season.

    Dance:
    With a World Junior medal, Aldridge and Eaton are eligible for Grand Prix assignments and having already won the US national title and qualified for the JGP Final, I believe they'll move up. Bonacorsi and Mager have aged out of juniors.

    I would assign McNamara/Carpenter, Parsons/Parsons, Heritage/Fast, Hawayek/Bramante, Pogrebinsky/Gudis, Mancini/Brooks, Moore/Klaber and Miller/MacMillan. Next on the list would be Rosinski/Jaffe which leaves room for new teams to receive assignments as well.
  33. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

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    Does Evan still qualify for "comeback" skater status since he ended up not using his entries last year after asking for them? I rather hope not -- given the smaller number of GP invites, I would find it annoying if a skater blocked a couple of them and bowed out yet again, and I can easily see this happen. These days it seems that quite a few of the Olympians have not declared pro status and several have talked about coming back to competition.
  34. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Isn't Cesario almost 19 now? Also i'd much rather see Keiser, Edmunds and Jiang get JGP events next year then someone like Barbie Long. Something about her skating i just don't like and i think the other girls have more potential.
  35. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Cesario will turn 19 in August, so she misses the July 1st cutoff and is therfore eligible for one more season. Barbie will be given an initial JGP because she medaled at nationals in junior. Chances are pretty good that both Polina and Nina get assignments though, I assume Cesario will be sent to senior B(s) along with Baga, Lam will probably move up, she may be able to get one GP and then a senior B. USFS in the past has sent junior age eligible skaters that place in the top 15 or so in senior nationals to the JGP, so this means Nina and even Siraj will likely be considered. As the 6th place finisher in junior, Polina's chances are good. Gracie will probably do the senior GP, so Cain, Miller, Long are sure to be given initial assignments. Bell is being sent to Gardenia so she likely will be given an assignment as well. Angela Wang would be next in line due to her 8th place at senior nationals. Then Polina and Nina are probably the next two in line, along with Leah Keiser, for assignments, unless Lam and Cesario chose to do JGP again and Courtney Hicks is wholly healed and does really well in summer competitions. Even with her JGP experience, they would probably be sent before Yasmin Siraj due to Yasmin's performances at Nationals and then turning down her 2nd JGP this season, and only finishing 5th at her first.

    I think Jason Brown's decision regarding GP vs JGP may come down to if he stays in the top 24 on the SB list after Worlds. If he does, I'd say he should go GP b/c it's quite likely he'd get 2 assignments, but if he falls out of the top 24, then there's a chance he might only get 1 assignment, in which case it would probably be smarter to do JGP where he'd basically be gauranteed of 2 spots and his odds of earning a trip to the final would be very good, and he could get his 3a out in competition without the stakes being so high. But if he's in the top 24 and can get 2 senior GP assignments? Then I say might as well move up, mediocre finishes wouldn't be looked down upon where he'd be making his senior debut, and there wouldn't be a lot of pressure on him to medal with the field being so deep.

    As for Farris I see no reason for him to stay junior, unless he and coaches decide it's really the right move. But I mean considering he just matched/exceeded the scores put up by 4 of the top 5 US senior men at international competitions at JW, I think that's a sign he's ready to move up, especially if his goal is to make the World team next season and Sochi in 2014, which I assume it probably is. And again, he might as well just get the 4t out in competition, if he doesn't place great in his GPs, as a 17 year old making his senior debut, it won't really hurt his reputation or anything. Plus I'd be surprised if he falls out of the top 24 SB best list even after Worlds.
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2012
  36. SkateFan66

    SkateFan66 Active Member

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    Since Lysacek did not compete last year, and thus has not had a "comeback season," it would appear that he could still qualify as a comeback skater. Moreover, Lysacek did not 'block' any skater from competing in the GP last year since replacement skaters were assigned to compete at each event. IMO, Lysacek has earned the right to compete in the 2012 GP based on his past competitive record: Olympic Champion, World Champion, 4CC Champion, & GP Final Champion. Whether you like his skating style or not, you have to acknowledge that he has proven that he is a great competitor. There are very few times since 2006, that Lysacek finished off the podium in an international competition.
  37. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    GP for the US skaters, using last year's criteria-

    LADIES
    Wagner- seeded, guaranteed 2, possibly 3.
    Czisny, Zhang, Nagasu, Gold, Flatt- 1 each, possibly 2.

    Zawadzki, Lam, Cesario, Gao, and Hicks (likely JGP?) are all 25-30 on SB list and could end up with a spot but currently it is not guaranteed for them. I'm hoping at least one SA spot goes to Baga or Cesario if they are in good form this summer.

    MEN
    Abbott- guaranteed 2
    Miner, Rippon, Farris, Brown, Dornbush- guaranteed 1

    Aaron, Messing, Hochstein, Dyer, Mahbanoozadeh, Razzano, Carriere, and Cassar aren't top 24 and none that high (some not on at all) on the SB list, so they can hope for SA. Weir and Lysacek? We'll see.

    PAIRS
    Denney/Coughlin and Marley/Brubaker guaranteed 2, Vise/Baldwin get 1.

    Yankowskas/Reagan could get one as comeback skaters and we'll see if Cain or Ladwig gets a partner. Denney/Frazier and Simpson/Blackmer are 25-30 on SB list but may go back to JGP. Castelli/Shnapir are 26th so they'll likely get something. Donlan/Speroff and Poapst Knierim should both get SA IMO unless they are injured. Duarte/Grafton and Zhang/Bartholomay can do Nebelhorn and be alternates for SA maybe.

    DANCE
    Davis/White, Shibutanis, and Hubbell/Donohue get 2 each, 3 for D/W if desired. Aldridge/Eaton and Chock/Bates get 1 each.

    K/G-S, Samuelson/Gilles, Cannuscio/McManus could be factors for the SA spots, along with new teams Olson/Hubbell and Lichtman/Cowan (I think that's right?) if they show well at Lake Placid...
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2012
  38. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    They've changed the GP rules several times. I'm wondering whether they will do so again this year.

    I'm wondering if we will see a Plushenko rule for medallists at Europeans/4CC's to guarantee Evgeni 2 spots? If so, Zhang & Miner would also benefit.

    So would Gachinski and Stolbova/Klimov.
  39. Jemestone

    Jemestone New Member

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    I thought Plushenko could use his comeback skater status to gain 2 spots? Also he is guaranteed 1, surely the second could be a host pick. Same with Gachinski, Zhang, and Miner.
  40. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Did Flatt earn one because of her overall ISU ranking? I thought her season's best wasn't too high.

    US men get into this funny situation where 3 of the top 6 at US nationals don't have a great chance of getting a GP spot. This is fairly unusual.

    Where can one see a SB list? Thanks. :)