2012-13 US assignments speculation

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Jan 26, 2012.

  1. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    As always someone is going to tell me its too early to start this thread but we have results and that means time to speculate on what will happen with next season!

    JGP

    Men- Chen, Kaugars, Choate, Yostanto, Tomasello, Schetelich, and Howe to start with. I expect Brown and Farris to move up to senior GP.

    Ladies- Miller, Bell, Long, Cain, Edmunds, Wang, Daniels, Siraj, Jiang, Keiser, and Gold if she doesn't do senior GP. Siraj has done several seasons already but I guess one more can't hurt, unless she goes senior internationally...this one's a bit up in the air since it depends on senior ladies comp somewhat, and the results of Junior Worlds. I can't even begin to imagine adding some of the top novices to this list, its already so full (Chen and Glenn are too young but Gelb and Vinci are old enough). I think Lam will be moving up.

    Pairs- Aaron/Settlage, Simpson/Blackmer (or senior GP?), Denney/Frazier (or senior GP?), Calalang/Sidhu, Pfund/Reiss, Zaitsev/Stevens as the 6 core teams. Others may be added depending on offseason developments and Indy results.

    Dance- Aldridge/Eaton (or senior GP), McNamara/Carpenter, Parsons/Parsons, Heritage/Fast, Hawayek/Bramante for starters. We may see Moore/Klaber, Miller/MacMillan, Rosinski/Jaffe, Pogrebinsky/Gudis, and Mancini/Brooks added in depending on availability and summer results.

    SENIOR B- hopefully room for Dolensky, Warren, Cesario, Forte, Baga, Duarte/Grafton, and Bonacorsi/Mager, among others. A few of these could squeak on to the GP series even.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2012
  2. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    Cesario can do JGP for one more season. That being said, she's been accepted to FIT and has already deferred a year (2011-2012). I would assume you can only defer one year so it'll be interesting to see what she does and if she keeps skating. I certainly hope so and that she'll be able to make it work.

    I think Courtney Hicks will be back on the JGP also.
     
  3. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Hartley also may get one depending on how far down the standings usfs will go when they assign jgp skaters. If hartley gets 1 then there will be one fewer for the novice men podium finishers
    In my mind howe should get it before hartley but jmo
    Also usfs is hosting a jgp in lake placid
    Doesnt that mean three spots for the host?
    I hope Shum may get a host pick
     
  4. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    Ryan Hartley turns 19 in May so ages out next season.

    Yes. :cheer:
     
  5. PDilemma

    PDilemma Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't Gold get all the senior GP assignments, all four medals at Nats next year and will compete as two or three U.S. competitors at Worlds while the current senior ladies are being sent to learn to drive the zamboni and atone for their skating sins?

    (And I am not a "hater" or an "uber" of Gold. I am, quite frankly, undecided until she actually competes as a senior--but the fan hype on this one is reaching absurd heights).
     
  6. crzesk8dad

    crzesk8dad Active Member

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    Question: Is Chen age eligible for JGP?
     
  7. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    Yes, Nathan Chen turns 13 in May.
     
  8. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    My impression is that whatever fan hype she is getting is nothing compared to what Caroline Zhang got when she was a prepubescent junior with a wonky lutz, flip, and axel.

    Gold doesn't have the technique problems Zhang had, and, at her age, she's unlikely to go through another major growth spurt.

    I think most people who are excited about Gold's prospects recognize that even if she sustains or improves her technical abilities when she moves up to seniors, she has a long way to go on the second mark. By contrast, Caroline Zhang's biggest fans seemed to equate the beautiful positions she achieved in her spins and footwork with "artistry."

    If you can cite any articles, blog entries, or posts that depict Gracie Gold as a highly artistic skater, I'd be interested to see them.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2012
  9. PDilemma

    PDilemma Well-Known Member

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    I don't recall anyone suggesting that Zhang be sent to senior worlds before she tested out of juniors. Gold has never skated a senior program and right here at FSU, it is being suggested that she put two together by March and represent the U.S. at senior Worlds--when she hasn't even tested for seniors. That's a bit much. Not too mention that suggesting that she does have work to do for the second mark and that moving up to seniors is no easy task results in being labeled a "hater".

    And I'm not sure why I have to prove the hype by producing a blog that calls her artistic. :confused:
     
  10. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    While these are just fabulous arguments, I didn't start this thread to have another discussion about Gracie's hype. I have no idea what that has to even do with this topic. Go start a Gracie Gold thread and post all this stuff in there...
     
  11. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    Zhang wasn't old enough to go to Worlds before she tested out of juniors. :shuffle:

    There are still plenty of people here on FSU bemoaning the fact that she wasn't old enough to go to Worlds in 2008, when she was a senior and the bronze medalist at U.S. Nationals.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2012
  12. Mayra

    Mayra Well-Known Member

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  13. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    I gave in and just bumped up the Gracie Gold thread in GSD :p: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=3448913#post3448913

    (Vagabond, I think you meant to type 2008 in your post above and not 2009.)
     
  14. 5Ali3

    5Ali3 Active Member

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    FWIW, my impression is the opposite: Zhang received hype in the fall of 2007 after blowing away the field at an early JGP, winning by something like 50 points. However, she was a "known quantity" with a previous reputation for squeaky jumps and lovely body positions/programs. The Junior Ladies' podium in 2007 received significant hype as the "future," in part because the 2007 Senior Ladies' podium was seen as skaters "held over" from the previous quad who were not expected to still be competing in 2010. Nagasu and Zhang were hyped as leading the U.S. ladies into Vancouver, with a made-for-TV friendship/rivalry and looks/demeanor that reminded many of a young Michelle Kwan at a time when many were looking for the "next Kwan."

    Five years later (wow, it's really been five years?), I think there's more acceptance of the idea that Kwan was a once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon, that we shouldn't expect another athlete to dominate the world scene for 10+ years. However, I also sense some desperation that wasn't present five years ago: okay, maybe we can't build our program around a single STAR who is a household name for over a decade, but - um - can't someone step up and stop this drought? I also sense a switch from, "if she's this good at 12, imagine what she'll be like at 16!" to "yeah, she's this good at 12, but can she keep those triples/triples past puberty?"

    To the best of my recollection, I cannot recall this kind of hype about a Junior skater, especially one as "unknown" as Gold before this season. Why the hype?

    Gold has outstanding jump technique. Her technical understanding of a triple toe as the back-half of a combination is textbook; she is very unusual in her correct timing of the toe-loop takeoff. She relies on timing, clean body positions, and correct use of edges/toe picks to vault herself into the air. She does not rely on quick rotation in the air. She may not have her adult body yet, but she clearly has something of an adult body - and it appears that her adult body, with its muscles and post-pubescent strength - is part of what helped her improve so drastically over the past three years. Technically, she's going to be fine unless she injures herself training a triple Axel. Artistically, she has the building blocks of flow, power, edging, and musical awareness. The rest can taught if she wants to learn - and her personality suggests she's a sponge, not a diva, and will accept both feedback and coaching. Her family is supportive in the best ways.

    I think the hype about Gold is much stronger (and a bit out-of-control, honestly) on the internet than in the skating world. I sense a bit of "let's hold our breath" among those who have been on this roller coaster before. That's not to suggest that Gold isn't seen as a phenom; it's to suggest that the thought process is more like "we haven't seen someone like this in two decades and oh please skategods let's not screw this up no one say out loud what we are all thinking lets pretend shes just your typical junior ladies champion."
     
  15. PDilemma

    PDilemma Well-Known Member

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    Excellent analysis. Thank you.

    Gold may have the goods. I'm not saying she doesn't. But I also think out-of-control fan hype might not be a positive influence. And I hope your impression of the skating powers' take on this is inside info, because they need to be holding their breath and not rushing her. The notion of her being sent to senior Worlds this spring is absurd.
     
  16. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    I've excerpted part of 5Ali3's post above and cross-posted it in the Gracie Gold thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=3449025#post3449025

    For those who don't have access to Kiss and Cry, this is what I posted:
    ETA: Caitlin Belt/Michael Johnson (5th in Junior Pairs at Easterns; 4th of 5 teams at the Youth Olympics) are also JGP age-eligible in pairs.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2012
  17. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

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    I agree the CZ hype was just as over the top, but for me the comparison doesn't quite work for many reasons. 1)The ISU had not yet come up with the "e" (and later "!") marks for erroneous jump take-offs when Zhang blew away the junior field. 2)UR calls began to get more and more severe as she entered senior competitions 3)We had 3 spots and were comfortable 4)We had a recent World Champ as a team member and very few predicted she would fall so far and so quickly. 5)Zhang was younger and we figured she had two years to fix her juniorish qualities while she skated in the shadow of Meissner. (None of which happened of course ;))

    It seems most of us US fans are DESPERATE for a star and, so far, Gold is checking all of the right boxes to score well in this current system. I'm certainly in no rush to hype her, but you can't totally ignore the prospects. I assume she'll go to Jr Worlds and let's see how she handles herself there.
     
  18. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

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    I was one of the people asking if they could send her to Senior Worlds but I was only being half serious. Besides, that isn't a comment about Gold being so good that I think she can win so much as "can we please send someone to Worlds who is consistent and lands jumps so we may actually regain 3 spots!" I think a lot of her hype is just people having had enough of US ladies skating being 2nd rate and without Gold it looks like we will continue to be on the outside looking in while Japan and Russia take over.
     
  19. mysticchic

    mysticchic Well-Known Member

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    Well Gracie's JGP score is good enough for 9th in ISU's season's best. So depending on what the criteria is for GP invitiations, and her placing at Jr Worlds (if she is picked), she could get 2 assignments for the GP next year. But let's see how the Sr ladie's do! Alissa might surpise everyone this week!
     
  20. UDelpairs2012

    UDelpairs2012 New Member

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    If Gracie Gold medals at Jr Worlds they should send her to worlds....FSU please dont kill me
     
  21. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    No lets not burn out this poor girl before she's even had a chance to skate a year in the Senior ranks.
     
  22. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    If you repost this in the Gracie Gold thread in GSD I will reply to you there ;): http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=81717

    haribobo, this is what you get when you start a speculation thread for next season too early! :lol: :D
     
  23. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    [ However, I also sense some desperation that wasn't present five years ago I also sense a switch from, "if she's this good at 12, imagine what she'll be like at 16!" to "yeah, she's this good at 12, but can she keep those triples/triples past puberty?"



    Yes. Used to be the attitude was you were considered "over-the-hill" if you were a new senior at age 16. Media types like Christine Brennan were searching for the 13 year olds............
     
  24. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

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    Speculations

    Pairs
    This is easy (before they all break up): Denney, H./Frazier, Simpson/Blackmer, Calalang/Sidhu, Pfund/Reiss, Aaron/Settlage, and Zaitsev/Stevens. Even though Denney/Frazier plan to move up to senior domestically, I see no advantage to moving up to senior internationally. Their world ranking and season best is quite low and they haven't had any junior international success to speak of. Simpson/Blackmer have stated they plan to remain junior domestically, so it follows that they'll stay junior internationally even with their medal at the JGP Final this year.

    Ice Dance
    Aldridge/Eaton, McNamara/Carpenter (so excited for them to be old enough!), Parsons/Parsons, Heritage/Fast, Hawayek/Bramante, and whoever does well at Lake Placid.

    Men
    It will be interesting to find out what Brown and Farris want to do. Brown's already won the JGP Final, but without a triple axel, he won't be competitive as a senior. Farris has the skills to compete with the senior men, but isn't all that consistent. If they do well at junior worlds, I think it's more likely that they'll move up. If not, we shall see. Other men who should be considered for JGP spots: Chen, Choate, Kaugars, Yostanto, Scheltiech, Howe, and Shum.

    Ladies
    I expect Gold and Lam to move up to seniors next season. Probably Cesario will, too. So I would give assignments to Cain, Miller, Long, Bell, Wang, Baga, Jiang, and Keiser. If Hicks is recovered in time, she could displace one of the above girls after summer monitoring. I wouldn't consider any of the novices since the top two are too young and there's enough depth in the higher, harder divisions to handily fill out a JGP roster.
     
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  25. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Does Warren age out of juniors after this season? If not I assume he'd do JGP again as he isn't going to JW and therefore won't have another shot to boost his SB. Maybe he can get a senior B or two though.

    Baga has already done 2 seasons on the JGP, and that doesn't include this season, I assume she'll move up to seniors and likely get a senior B or two, or maybe if she continues to skate well she could get the host spot at SA.

    Also do Duarte/Grafton age out of juniors after this season? I feel like they might. In any event, they probably should move up to seniors, if they can get a decent SB at JW, then they might be able to get 1 GP and if not, they will be in the mix for senior Bs and maybe the SA host spot if they continue to skate well.
     
  26. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    Warren and Duarte/Grafton age out of ISU Junior after this season (ETA: as well as Dolensky, Bonacorsi/Mager and the Gamelin twins in dance among the JGP competitors this season).

    BTW, it's pretty rare for a skater to get a "senior B or two" with the limited number of Senior B slots these days. 7 men, 3 ladies, 6 pairs, and 7 dance teams were assigned this season, for example, and only Carriere received 2 this season and he didn't have a GP (ETA: ditto for 4 of the men and 1 of the dance teams).

    AFAIK the ISP skaters (JGP age-eligible ones) usually are asked if they prefer to compete junior or senior (i.e., Cesario this season), but there is no guarantee that they will receive an assignment.

    ETA: I'm hoping Shotaro Omori will be considered for the ISP.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2012
  27. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I can't see Jason Brown staying a Junior for another year. I'm sure he'll be doing his triple sxel next season. He was going to at least one at Nats but hurt his ankle.
     
  28. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I think Jason and Josh's decisions regarding JGP vs. GP will depend on how both boys do at JW. If they can medal (which IMO they both have a good shot at), I tend to think both will move up, if they don't fair as well, then it's probably more up in the air. Either boy could potentially even win, though Han Yan is very strong.
     
  29. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Also isn't there going to be a new senior B next season? (Glacier Falls, or Thornhill? Maybe both?). For the men senior B spots always seem to be limited but I think it's feasible that pairs and ladies could be assigned to two, I mean the USFS didn't even send any ladies to Finlandia this season...
     
  30. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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