2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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    Or it could mean that the entries for #6 Croatia haven't been made official and/or finalized by USFS yet.
     
  2. feraina

    feraina Well-Known Member

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    Oh, this is very good news for Long! And possibly good news for Mariah Bell, too. I'm glad that Lam is not getting a 2nd JGP yet. Her teeny jumps and bad technique put her chronically at the risk of UR's and falls. But she might still get a 2nd assignment in JGP #7, if some of Cesario, Miller, Jiang, Keiser, and Long do worse than 4th (entirely likely).

    I'm guessing that Wang will still get a second JGP later in the season; she can definitely still get into the JGPF if she could just skate a clean SP. But it makes sense for USFSA to give out 1st assignments as early as possible, so that the medalists can all get a 2nd assignment (unlike Gold last year).

    Given the competition at JGP #3 (Risa Shoji, Elena Radionova, Hae Jin Kim), the chance of Cesario & Miller both medaling is not that high. It's easy to guess that @ JGP #4, between Jiang and Keiser (against Satoko Miyahara, So Youn Park, Anna Shershak, Uliana Titushkina), one will probably medal and one will not (I really love Nina J, but I feel that in this very deep junior ladies' field, she is definitely one who shouldn't have gotten an initial assignment, so early anyway). So really, after #3, they will know their whole hand and can optimize the assignments for the rest of the JGP season.
     
  3. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I saw the assignments for JGP #5 yesterday, and thank you, USFSA, for doing the right thing this time. :cheer:
     
  4. CoralReef

    CoralReef Member

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    I thought I saw McNamara/Carpenter on the USFS list for Turkey before? Probably not the right spot for this question because I think it's a senior event, but wasn't US sending a dance team to Nebelhorn? Maybe I need to get my eyes checked ;) .
     
  5. rhumba

    rhumba New Member

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    I thought Chock/Bates were assigned Nebelhorn, not sure why not on the USFS site.
     
  6. Lanna

    Lanna Well-Known Member

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    Frequent tests are a great way to ensure injuries.
     
  7. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

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    Some quotes from Edmunds' coach after her mostly successful Challenge Skate SP

    http://web.icenetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120914&content_id=38405356&vkey=ice_news

     
  8. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Exactly how did Vanessa Lam get her GP events? She never came close to medaling as a Junior at Nationals.
     
  9. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    National results :confused:

    I disagree JGP#3 is easier to medal than at JGP #4
    look where Shoji has been last season has been struggling and she did do well in Austria, Hae Jin doesn't have that high technical arsenal yet so Miller and even both ( Miller, Cesario) can medal on contrary to JGP # 4, you have Miyahara, Shershak and even Titushkina )
     
  10. Jayar

    Jayar Well-Known Member

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    Last season, she was selected for the first spot based on her 7th place at Nationals. She medaled, so she got a second. This season, she was senior lady #2 in the JGP pool, so she got an assignment.
     
  11. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    Shershak has been (strategically, it looks like) shifted to Slovenia and replaced by Zaseeva. I think both events are really tough, especially compared to the fields in some of the later events.
     
  12. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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    So with both Hannah Miller (silver) and Samantha Cesario (bronze) medalling today in Austria, it looks like 3 of the final 4 ladies' spots will be filled with the two of them plus Angela Wang (bronze in Lake Placid).

    What an AMAZING JGP debut for Nathan Chen - he's provisionally slotted into JGP #6 in Zagreb, Croatia.
     
  13. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    I agree. there will be only one spot left for Bell or Edumnds and if Keiser medals next week they are done.:(
     
  14. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    If Cesario ultimately does not qualify for JGPF, I am going to kill those judges today for giving Miller higher PCS and not low enough GOEs for those tiny jumps.

    While everyone praised Wagner for her Black Swan, she really should take note of Cesario's program - THAT is how it is supposed to be done. :cheer:
     
  15. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah but even if Keiser doesn't medal they might avoid picking between Bell and Edmunds and just send Lam out again. I don't really think Lam deserves to get a 2nd event, but it seems like something USFS might do considering only one of Bell or Edmunds can go and the decision to send one over the other could be controversial meaning they might just avoid it altogether. Or I guess they could send Siraj instead.
     
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I agree I thought Cesario should have placed ahead of Miller. Her skating is more mature and smooth, and her jumps get huge height which is especially noticeable when you compare them with Miller's who barely leave the ice. I like Hanna but I wonder if those jumps are going to survive if she grows any more, and even if they do, I highly doubt she'll ever be able to do a 3-3. I think Cesario OTOH could very feasibly do a 3-3 and wouldn't be surprised if she tries it out later this season.
     
  17. Jayar

    Jayar Well-Known Member

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    I've seen both programs live several times, and I've watched the video from today's competition. Ashley is lightyears ahead of Samantha in terms of 'character' in the program and in terms of difficulty. Samantha is a very strong jumper and she skates very smoothly, but I think where she gets lost is in her arms and her face. The arms are either doing the airplane pose or the flap my wings movement. She needs to pay attention to that a bit more, and learn how to use them more effectively. Her face is exactly where it should be as a junior-- concentrating on the program, but she'll have to figure out how to emote more to the audience to draw us in much like Ashley did with her sinister Black Swan. The other part is, and I understand that the music is balletic-- Samantha doesn't use her upper body and lower body against each other. Everything is very refined (which is beautiful), but COP requires more opposing action above and below the waistline. Having said all of that, I think that Samantha is a beautiful skater, and I hope that she stays healthy so that we can all see what she truly can do when she has a full season under her skate laces.
     
  18. flipforsynchro

    flipforsynchro New Member

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    Hannah's layback was :scream:.
     
  19. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I envy you so much, Jayar, for having seen both programs live several times!

    I actually really like Cesario's arms! but I agree she needs to demand more attention (esp. given the context of the program). It's probably easier with a big audience which can give immediate reaction. Let's hope Cesario gets that opportunity this season. She could totally make the 4CCs team if she keeps it up (and a 3/3 won't hurt).
     
  20. n*ice mom

    n*ice mom New Member

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    I'll help you. LOL.
     
  21. skfan

    skfan Member

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    did i read something in the dornbush discussions about skaters having 2 internationals not having to do regionals and sectionals this season? could someone kindly clarify?

    thank you.

    as for cesario vs. miller, the US has an embarrassment of riches.
     
  22. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Cesario's bigger jumps will be more an advantage in seniors. (I hope she'll get a senior intl next year) (Hopeful emoticon here)
     
  23. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    So Nathan is obviously getting a 2nd event, but I'm wondering, with any sense, USFS will send each of Farris, Chen, and Brown to a different 2nd JGP so that they can all have the best shot possible at qualifying for the JGPF. Chen and Farris with their wins and huge scores there is not as much pressure, a 4th place finish in a 2nd event would likely be enough even, but Brown with his silver and lowish score will likely need a second silver or better to qualify, which is why it would be silly to send him to a 2nd event where Chen or Farris will be because those two seem far ahead of him at this point and could knock him out of qualification. Is there a document showing what the remaining assignments (provisional and confirmed) for the US men looks like? I know some men still have to go out for a first time (Kaugers, Omori, etc) and idk if Choate is being given a 2nd event after placing 4th, but it seems it would be smarter to send Brown to a 2nd event with one of them, and avoid sending him to the event where both Yan and Jin are scheduled to compete and send Farris or Chen to that event instead, because even if those two come out ahead, they should still be fine to make the JGPF.
     
  24. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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    Give USFS some credit, please. ;)

    USFS' International Assignments page originally had Brown's name down for Turkey (it was later removed and they forgot to add it back) - here's what's officially known for the men:

    TUR: Brown (2nd assignment), Omori (1st assignment)
    SLO: Farris (2nd), Kaugars (1st)
    CRO: TBA (Chen provisional)
    GER: TBA
     
  25. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Smart move sending Farris to SLO...tough field! Yan, Jin, Tanaka, Uno, and Sadovsky as competition! Whereas Turkey it seems like Brown's main competition is Nyugen, Honda, and Lee so there's a good chance he can win. Croatia has Yan and Kovtun but no one else noteworthy but the Germany event ATM seems even more wide open so I wonder if they'd send Chen to that instead, but I guess they are probably waiting to see how the other men do before assigning that event, and Chen should be able to manage 2nd or 3rd if not win in Croatia which should be more than enough, whereas anyone else going there wouldn't have much of a shot to medal, so yeah.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2012
  26. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    Kovtun is in Germany as well.

    I think USFS has to finalize the Croatia entries this week. If they wait until after the Istanbul competition athletes would only have a week to prepare before leaving for Zagreb.
     
  27. skfan

    skfan Member

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    well, some strategizing is reasonable, but you can't always avoid pitting 2 strong skaters against each other. keiser received the gift of being co-assigned with nina jiang because USFS was following seniors finish order.

    whether miller meets cesario again or is co-assigned with keiser (i've already awarded keiser a medal next week, LOL) at her next assignment, she'd still have a fight on her hand. it vaguely reminds me of the jordyn wieber arguments... how can you beat the rest of the world if you can't even beat the other girls in your country?

    is there a limit on how many JGPF representatives can come from one country? i mean, can we have a titushkina, shershak, radionova, gerasimova, zaseeva, miyahara JGPF?

    also, forgive me for perseverating, but in order to earn a bye to nationals (bypassing regionals and sectionals) it's still required that a skater make the JGPF, right?

    thanks in advance.
     
  28. PinkFeathers

    PinkFeathers Active Member

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    Based on the rules posted by USFS, you only get a bye into Nationals if your international assignments coincide with your regionals/sectionals. This could be wrong, could be changed, could be subject to the whims of the usfs, martians, etc. :rollin:
     
  29. skfan

    skfan Member

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    thank you. i know there are a lot of knowledgeable folks here, so i thought i'd ask for some clarification regarding this post

    http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=3674770&postcount=427


    i like the martians theory :rofl:
     
  30. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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    JGP skaters will receive a bye through Sectionals in November to 2013 Nationals if they qualify for the JGP Final. They will still have to compete at Regionals in October if their JGP assignment is more than one week before or after their respective Regional. It is my understanding that Senior GP singles skaters with 2 GP assignments will be allowed a bye though their Regionals this year - I believe this was approved officially by the Chair of USFS' Competitions Committee.