2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. n*ice mom

    n*ice mom New Member

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    I think some of the JGP competitors will not be able to compete at regionals because there will be a direct conflict between Regionals and their JGP. For example, I doubt Cesario would have to do North Atlantics Senior Ladies on Oct 8 & 9th, if she is assigned either JGP 6 or 7.
  2. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Yes, I mentioned in the U.S. Regionals thread in Kiss and Cry that "if Samantha Cesario is assigned to JGP Germany, that should give her a bye [through NA] to Easterns." JGP Croatia also should give a bye through Regionals for both Hannah Miller (EGL) and Harrison Choate (NE).
  3. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    The ISU site updated the Chemnitz entries today and there were a few changes on the US side:

    -Cesario has replaced Hannah Miller (who was shifted to Croatia)
    -There's only one dance entry (down from two), with Hawayek/Baker there provisionally
    -There are only two pairs: Pfund/Reiss and Simpson/Blackmer. Denney/Frazier aren't even listed as subs. I wonder if one of them is injured?
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2012
  4. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    That could be why D/F were replaced by Calalang/Sidhu in Croatia. If that's the case, I hope it's not too serious an injury.
  5. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Looks like Leah is getting that last JGP spot.
  6. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Here are the Total & FS scores for the 5 U.S. ladies' JGP medalists so far:
    158.52 Hannah Miller (103.05 FS) JGP Austria Silver
    157.72 Samantha Cesario (103.34 FS) JGP Austria Bronze
    156.33 Leah Keiser (105.63 FS) JGP Turkey Gold
    153.77 Courtney Hicks (102.41 FS) JGP Lake Placid Silver
    150.40 Angela Wang (105.69 FS) JGP Lake Placid Bronze
  7. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    any jump details for Leah Keiser's LP in Turkey?
  8. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Here's what I posted in the JGP Istanbul, Turkey thread in Kiss and Cry:
    "Keiser's 7 triple jumps were called 3Lz+3T<, 2A+3T, 3Lo, 3Lz, 2A+2T+2Lo, 3F(e), 3S< (she tried to catch her foot in a back spiral before the takeoff but couldn't)."
  9. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    ^ Her LP is on youtube... Anyways, I thought the technical panel here was really harsh on < calls.
  10. feraina

    feraina Active Member

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    They are all really close in total points! Is JGPF only six entries now? Then it will probably be Elena Radionova, Satoko Miyahara, Leah Keiser, Courtney Hicks (who has an easy 2nd assignment), Hannah Miller, and Samantha Cesario (who doesn't have much competition for one of the top two, together with Leah Keiser). I'm assuming Hannah Miller places higher than Angela Wang, as Hannah has been super consistent this season. But I guess it's possible that Angela Wang could win, and Hannah could place 2nd, in which case they'd both be in and squeeze out Samantha Cesario, which would be too bad... as Samantha skated/scored very well and was unfortunate to only get bronze. There's also Rika Hongo, who got a silver already. The other medalists don't look like much of a threat for JGPF (Titushkina with 3rd and 5th, So Youn Park with 2nd and 6th). So at least three US ladies in the JGPF, possibly four. Not bad. :) I'd say they are in good shape to win a medal or two as well (though Radionova probably has a lock on the gold).
  11. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    ^^^ feraina, I've copied your post above and re-posted it in the JGP Final Qualification thread in Kiss and Cry:
    http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=3692416#post3692416

    I think Shotaro Omori's 4th place in Istanbul, first 3A landed in international competition (out of 3 attempts), and total score (166.09) is worthy of a 2nd assignment to Chemnitz, Germany. Harrison Choate received a 2nd assignment after placing 4th in Courchevel (169.70).

    Who should the 2nd U.S. man be?

    Jay Yostanto (165.74), 6th in Linz, Austria and landed 1 of his 3 3A attempts (this is his last season of ISU Junior age eligibility)
    Lukas Kaugars - 1st JGP (debut) this coming week in Bled, Slovenia (too late to wait for his result?)
    Spencer Howe - WD from Lake Placid JGP (if he's recovered from his injury)
    Troy Tomasello - if he has fulfilled his competition readiness requirements (this is his last season of ISU Junior age eligibility since he turned 18 in May)
    Jordan Moeller - did not qualify for 2012 Nationals but has had good summer competition results and was a late addition to the ISP
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2012
  12. johndockley92

    johndockley92 New Member

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    I think Jordan should go as well as Spencer. While Shotaro did do very well, I think it's better to send out more skaters to give them an opportunity to post a minimum score. Shotaro already got his, and he won't make the JGPF anyways so... If one of these skaters were to beat out Nathan to the national championship, they should have the chance to compete at junior worlds. Just my opinion.
  13. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I vote for Jordan
  14. toddlj

    toddlj Well-Known Member

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    http://www.isuresults.com/results/jgpslo2012/SEG003.HTM

    After the SP in Slovenia, Barbie Long is in 2nd behind Hae Jin Kim (KOR).

    If Barbie holds on to get the gold or silver... do you think she will bump Cesario or Wang from a second assignment? (The USFSA has not formally announced the last two JGPs.)

    I'm guessing they won't bump Cesario or Wang... but it will be interesting to see.
  15. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    No, I believe the U.S. ladies' Croatia and Germany assignments are set now.
  16. toddlj

    toddlj Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure you're right. They should really update the USFSA site so that overeager people like me don't speculate! :lol:
  17. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Barbie Long in 2nd, another Junior with triple lutz-triple toe!!
  18. MoreIce

    MoreIce Member

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    Really Impressed with Barbie Long's presentation improvments. I thought everthing looked much better then last years nationals!
  19. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    I thought Barbie's jumps looked higher as well. Great improvements from her!
  20. 2sk8

    2sk8 Active Member

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    ...and in the absence of an official post, they are? ...and the final entries for the other disciplines are.... ;)

    ETA: CROATIA :
    Ladies - Miller, Wang; Men - Chen, Choate; Pairs - Aaron/Settlage, Calalang/Sidhu, Zaitsev/Stevens; Parson/Parsons

    Any thoughts on whether Choate should have gotten a second assignment versus sending on of the remaining guys in the ISP out? Glad to see Divette & Utah with an assignment; would not have sent Calalang/Sidhu for 2nd assignment - JMO.
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2012
  21. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    USFS originally posted their JGP Croatia entries (quoted above) on Sept. 18, then removed them and put them back online today: http://usfigureskating.org/Athletes.asp?id=216
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2012
  22. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Hurry up and confirm Cesario's second assignment already :drama:
  23. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    If you want to take just my word for it, Marco, Cesario is confirmed for Germany. :)
  24. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    :cheer:

    In that case I am happy to cheer for Barbie Long tonight :p
  25. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I guess they'll give one of the last spots to Omori. Which leaves one left, right? I vote for Jordan Moeller as I'm all for spreading the wealth
  26. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

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    Omori and Jay Yostanto are the two that are on the newest ISU update so that's likely the team.
  27. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    That's what I've heard unofficially.

    Samantha Cesario tweeted yesterday that she is "leaving for Germany one week from tomorrow" so I think that's official confirmation. ;)
  28. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I cannot help but feel that had Cesario chosen senior intl, she would have gotten a gp instead
    :( Same for Lam.
  29. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Not sure about that. To many girls ahead of her. Mirai only has one which shows how many girls are fighting for slots. She needs to stay healthy for Nationals if she wants a GP event next year. As for Lam i doubt very much she would have got one. She struggled at the end of last season and hasn't looked good this season.
  30. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Lam and Cesario were #26 and #28 in last season's ISU Season Best total scores list:
    26 156.58 Vanessa LAM USA ISU JGP Austria 2011 30.09.2011
    28 153.84 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Baltic Cup 2011 16.09.2011

    Lam skated very well and showed many improvements, IMO, at the Hidden Valley Open club competition in July, and had she skated like that at her JGP in Courchevel, I think she could have won a silver or bronze medal.

    Cesario has guaranteed herself team envelope funding for next season with her JGP bronze medal in Austria and set a good SB total score in the process, so she already has benefited by staying on the JGP.
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2012
  31. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I doubt USFS would have given the SA host spots to one of them over Gao and Flatt, and they didn't have a guarantee otherwise because for both, their SB was just outside the top 25 and their WS was well out of it, so with the reduced slots, it's unlikely either would have ended up with an assignment. Plus maybe USFS didn't want them to move up so as to increase the chances of the other girls (Agnes, Gracie, etc) getting 2 assignments and to keep the possibility of sending them to JW open. It appears that they convinced Farris, and possibly Brown too, to stay on the JGP another season for these reasons, and those two both had a senior GP event guaranteed and maybe could have even gotten 2 if their names had been submitted, so there's no saying USFS didn't play into the decision at some level.
  32. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I just feel bummed for both girls because the trend for the last few seasons is that the top JGP girls have to do technically harder jumps than seniors; also, pcs is lower, and there's one fewer element to garner tes, and so JGP ladies are at a disadvantage when it comes to Seasons' best and stuff, and that in turn makes it harder for these girls to get a gp.
  33. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Well based on how Vanessa skated at her JGP this season and JW last season, she likely would have rounded out the bottom of a GP field instead of placing a respectable 4th and 13th, so it may be better for her confidence anyways. Someone scoring 138-140 points in an international competition is not really deserving of a GP anyhow, and that's what Lam scored at her last 2 internationals, in fact she only scored above 150 once all last season. Mirai with a SB of 173 only managed one assignment and the depth in the US ladies is really high right now so really I'm okay with Lam being on the JGP again and getting only one assignment. As for Cesario, I just hope she stays healthy and can compete at Nationals this season, that's really the reason why she's done JGP the past two seasons.
  34. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Team USA for the final JGP in Chemnitz, Germany was officially confirmed on the USFS site yesterday: Cesario, Keiser; Omori, Yostanto (all 4 have a bye through their respective Regionals now); Simpson/Blackmer, Pfund/Reiss (2 pairs); Hawayek/Baker (1 dance team).
  35. johndockley92

    johndockley92 New Member

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    Interesting that they chose not to use all available slots in pairs and dance - passing over Goldberg/Dolk again and not giving De La Mora/Wilson a shot to redeem themselves after a poor short program at their last outing (Neither team has acquired a minimum TES).

    Also would've way rather seen Jordan and Spencer get a shot than sending out Omori/Yostanto - though they both have a shot at a medal, neither skater has a shot at the final so sending them doesn't have much value because they already have a minimum score.
  36. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Angela Wang won the short in Croatia!! Hannah Miller in third!! Angela landed triple lutz-triple toe.
  37. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Angela could surprise at Nationals. She could with a bit of luck finish in the top six which would give her a chance to make it to Sochi if the US gets three spots at Worlds.
  38. Mrs. P

    Mrs. P New Member

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    Congrats to Angela Wang and Hannah Miller for their gold and silver at Croatia. This pretty much seals the deal for them as far as JGPF:

    Elena Radionova - 30
    Angela Wang - 26 (she wins the overall score tie breaker)
    Satoko Miyahara - 26 (she beats Hannah with her first place in Lake Placid)
    Hannah Miller -26 (two silvers)
    Hae Jin Kim - 22 (wins tiebreaker with Courtney with first place in Slovakia)
    Courtney Hicks - 22

    Leah Keiser is as good as in if she gets a medal. Samantha Cesario will have to finish in the top two to make it to JGPF and if she's second, she's has to hope that Leah will be the one who wins. In that scenario:

    Elena Radionova -30 (1st+1st)
    Leah Keiser -30 (1st+ 1st)
    Angela Wang -30 (1st +3rd)
    Satoko Miyahara - 26 (1st + 3rd)
    Hannah Miller -26 (2nd+2nd)
    Samantha Cesario - 24 (2nd + 3rd)
    --
    Hae Jin Kim - 22 (1st + 5th)
    Courtney Hicks - 22 (2nd+4th)


    ** If Samantha gets another bronze, she would actually be behind Hae Jin and Courtney because of their 1st and 2nd place, respectively.

    ** Another X factor is Anna Pogorilaya of Russia, who won bronze in Croatia. She will be fighting for a JGPF spot with Samantha and Leah. If Samantha is second, but Anna wins, then Samantha will be out because both Anna and Leah would beat her for the spots with 26 (1st and 3rd).
    Elena Radionova -30 (1st+1st)
    Angela Wang -30 (1st +3rd)
    Satoko Miyahara - 26 (1st + 3rd)
    Hannah Miller -26 (2nd+2nd)
    Anna Pogorilaya -26 (1st+3rd)
    Leah Keiser -26 (1st+ 3rd)
    ----
    Samantha Cesario 24 ( 2nd + 3rd)


    ** Miyabi Oba of Japan, who was 4th in Turkey could also be a spoiler if she wins (though that's unlikely, me thinks). With a win she would have 24 points. If Samantha is second, she would again be out because Miyabi would win the tiebreaker (9+ 15 for Miyabi vs 11+13 for Samantha). Leah would likely take the last spot with a medal of any color and even sneak in with a fourth place finish even if Anna Pogorilaya beats her for silver or bronze because she would win a tiebreak with her 1st place win. In that scenario here's the point breakdown

    Elena Radionova -30 (1st+1st)
    Angela Wang -30 (1st +3rd)
    Satoko Miyahara - 26 (1st + 3rd)
    Hannah Miller -26 (2nd+2nd)
    Leah Keiser -24 (1st+ 4th)
    Miyabi Oba -24 (1st + 4th)
    ---
    Samantha Cesario 24 ( 2nd + 3rd loses tiebreaker with silver) or 22 (if she gets bronze)
    Anna Pogorilaya -24 (2nd + 3rd loses tiebreaker with silver) or 22 if she gets bronze


    It would be awesome if we had 4 U.S. Ladies in the JGPF, especially with the tighter JGPF field.
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2012
  39. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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  40. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    It seems it was obvious to everyone but USFS that Jiang, Baga and Cain didn't really have a chance to medal. :p

    I mean I can somehow understand Cain getting a spot given she was Junior silver medallist but the other two... My imagination could maybe stretch to Baga being deserving enough but given Jiang's summer outings... WTF!

    Long could have made the final. :(