2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    IMO, Satoko Miyahara and Elena Radionova are the big favorites for the next two events (barring disaster, I don't see anyone beating Radionova in Austria) but after that it's wide open, so Wang, Cesario, etc are very much in competition for medals.
     
  2. modern_muslimah

    modern_muslimah Thinking of witty user title and coming up blank

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    :lol: I know! I would love to see Radionova and Chen duke it out! However, I don't think our wish will be granted until the 2014-15 season (I'm going to assume that Radionova will want to do the SGP next season if she keeps competing like she did this weekend).
     
  3. skfan

    skfan Member

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    double post.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2012
  4. skfan

    skfan Member

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    i think that might be a big reason why Sylvia is advocating waiting til after JGP #2 to finalize assignments for JGP#5. i'm thinking the USFS expects a lot from hicks--the article about JGP lake placid barely mentions wang and baga (were they mentioned at all?). :lol:


    i also don't see radionova finishing behind anyone in juniors this season barring disaster, but i fully expect hannah miller to finish 2nd to radionova and make the JGPF. after miller, though, i have no expectations of any U.S. lady.
     
  5. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    I think Angela Wang definitely has the goods to beat Satoko Miyahara in Lake Placid next week. Angela's jumps have improved tenfold since working with Christy Krall, as well as the quality of her skating. Angela also gets great spring on her jumps, whereas most of Satoko's always look borderline underroated.
     
  6. skfan

    skfan Member

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    but the calling of borderline underrotations is... rather unpredictable, let's say.:lol:

    i love angela's skating. i wish she had been the one to approximate a kwan-style transformation this season, rather than vanessa, but i have learned that the skate gods think differently. i learned that last season too when angela was only the 3rd alternate to junior worlds. :lol:

    you, on the other hand, have been nothing but a gracious skating fan... so... is the correct expression 'your word to god's ear'? :D

    even though i like miyahara and baga too... and USFS' press favors hicks...:dog:
     
  7. NMURA

    NMURA Member

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    Miyahara's jumps are small though, except for last year's second JGP, she hasn't received many UR calls. Mostly one par a competition. I suspect THAT caller was specially told to prevent Miyahara from making to JGPF. There were enough reasons for the JSF to do that. They wanted to give Shoji the chance to win a JGPF medal and make a smooth transition to the senior rank. Miyahara's presence would difinitely have threatened Shoji. It is quite apparent that Miyahara is the federation's favorite of his season (and Shoji was dumped into the toughest competition). I think she can expect better treatments in this season.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2012
  8. skfan

    skfan Member

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    ^
    sorry for being off topic, but what happened to haruna suzuki's JGP? i thought she was assigned to one but
    http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm

    shows she's not assigned to any of them. i know haruna skated below expectations recently in a within-japan competition, but did she lose her JGP because of that? is she injured?

    anyway, back on the topic of US ladies, this is the vid i've been most enamored with lately.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTzaPSRE31E

    and her posture is superlative, and her jumps are nice and high. :swoon: best of luck to kiri too at lake placid.
     
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Sort of disappointed with Jason Brown's showing. I mean, he won silver and will definitely get another assignment, but he didn't even ATTEMPT a 3a and as a result he got beaten by a Chinese baby. His PCS are good, but aren't going to be enough unless he starts going for the 3a in competition. Jin is a no name youngster and he didn't beat Hino by a large margin here either, and Hino is quite weak in the PCS department so that's really alarming for Jason. To make it on the senior ranks, he realistically probably needs a 3a AND a quad if we are being perfectly honest, and yet he won't even TRY the 3a in competition, even though his PCS allow him the room to make a mistake on it and still wind up with a medal. He's almost 18 now, if he doesn't at least start going for that jump soon, it makes me wonder if he really even has that jump and if he will ever even make it to the GP because without one, he's going to wind up like Cassar. Rippon has big 3a troubles and doesn't have a consistent quad either, but at least he always goes for them in competition, the same of which cannot be said for Brown.

    As for Choate I assume he will get a 2nd event because the pool of men is not that big or that deep this season. Solid score and showing, but what I said for Jason is even more relevant for Harrison, he REALLY needs the 3a and fast, otherwise he might not even make it to Nationals, as the rest of his skating is fine, solid, but he doesn't standout in any areas and is still quite awkward IMO.

    Really worried about Brown though. A coaching change might be needed, this is a big deal...
     
  10. Jun Y

    Jun Y Well-Known Member

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    Harrison Choate has long had a jump technique issue. In the air his head is not perfectly aligned to the middle axis. The arms are also a bit loose sometimes. If the technique is not fixed, there is no point going after the triple Axel.
     
  11. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    I think Angela can contend with Satoko, but I'm going off last season's results, where Satoko had a wonderful Junior Worlds. Satoko also has wonderful speed and flow. I'm not sure if this is a valid observation or if I'm making it up, but isn't Angela quite inconsistent?
     
  12. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    ^ Satoko is very inconsistent as well. She tends to be either hot or cold in competitions and there is rarely anything in between for her performances.
     
  13. misskarne

    misskarne #ForzaJules #KeepFightingMichael

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    Disagree.

    Where Jason lost this one was the uncharacteristic spin errors in the SP, and his other jumps. Nothing to do with the 3A. He got four underrotations in the LP (3Lo, 3S which I notice was not done out of his usual entry, and the two toes in the three jump combo). He also totalled three edge calls on his Lutz across both programs. That's the sort of thing that whittles you to death no matter how good your PCS.

    I fully admit that Jason has issues with his flutzing that have been ongoing for a long while now and I admit to surprise that it's taken this long for someone to stick the dreaded "e" next to it, but it seems the tech panel was really, really harsh in Courchevel. For the 3Lz-2T in the LP, one of the judges gave him -3! :eek: I don't even begin to understand how that happened.

    While I agree he's gotta try it, and grind my teeth in frustration every time he doesn't, everything was so out of whack at Courchevel that I'm glad he didn't. He never looked settled the whole event. I don't know what went wrong, but you can bet he and his team will be working to fix it.

    Jin was quite - ahem - generously marked in PCS here. Jason's seemed quite low compared to his usual standard.

    I loathe how people are quick to squeal "coaching change!". Changing coaches is a huge deal. Especially in this case where we're talking about a partnership that's been in existence since Jason was five years old. A complete coaching change is not neccessary IMO, but he might consider working with a jumps specialist at some point. He goes to California in the summer, why not pay a visit to Kulik? He spends a load of time in Colorado Springs - we know there are coaches there whose students reel off 3As like they're breakfast.

    At any rate, it's the first international of the season. Not time to panic yet. We know he tried it at his first competition of the year - twice. We know he got < on one which he landed and fell off the one he got full credit for. So he must have it somewhere.

    I'm not a fan of what they've done with his Liebestraume program. It looks like they've choreographed it for Senior and then cut it down to Junior. As a result the Junior version looks a bit disconnected and confused in places. It's still beautiful and still :swoon:, but it is a bit odd.
     
  14. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Miyahara lost the short program to Hwi Choi earlier this month in a comp in Taiwan (doubled the flip) but won overall with a 148.21.

    ETA: While we're discussing assignments, do you think Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER should get another JGP? Going by 2012 US nationals, looks like they will likely get one (as the ice dancing field isn't deep like ladies, right?). Not that I follow US ice dancing enough to know
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2012
  15. Twizzler

    Twizzler Well-Known Member

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    Usually if a dance team places in the top 6, they get a second assignment. I would expect Mc/C to get a second. Moore/Klaber would be questionable- depending how other teams place at future events and the number of teams USFS want to send out.
     
  16. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for your thoughts, misskarne, re Jason's showing in Courchevel. In his IN blog, Jason said he learned a lot, so hopefully he will go home and work on the areas where he needs to improve. I agree that he does not need to change coaches, but that it might be helpful for Jason to seek out additional help training his jumps in order to perfect 3-axel and begin working on quads.
     
  17. Tammi

    Tammi Merlot lover

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    Although they haven't been confirmed on the USFS int'l assignment page (actually, I think they were added and then removed), they are on the ISU roster for Turkey. Last season USFS did not use all their dance spots on the JGP, it will be interesting to see how they handle it this year. While not as deep, they have some very young teams who could be around juniors internationally for the next few years.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2012
  18. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    These are the provisional, or placeholder, U.S. entries and alternates for the 5th JGP in Bled, Slovenia, that were published on the ISU site yesterday.
    They are not considered official until they are published on USFS' International Assignments page.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2012
  19. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    @USFigureSkating just tweeted from Lake Placid:
    I think that U.S. men's spot must be "cursed" :( since Howe replaced Lukas Kaugars who was originally assigned but WD due to injury. The only listed LP alternate left who does not have an assignment is Troy Tomasello, and I believe he has been recovering from an injury himself.
     
  20. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Given the way the short program turned out in Lake Placid, it's going to be tough for Angela Wang to medal. If Wang doesn't then USFS should just send Long and Bell (or Edmunds) to the 5th JGP.

    Somewhat disappointing results for the American ladies today, considering the talent displayed during summer. Hope they skate better tomorrow.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2012
  21. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    I would wait until after the 3rd JGP to give the final spots. There ares still 6 assigned girls with hopes of a medal and only 6 spots left. However, if Hicks and Baga fail tomorrow to grab a medal then I wouldnt mind Bell and Long getting the 5th JGP event right now.
     
  22. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I think Edmunds should be assigned before Bell personally, she's been a lot more impressive this summer. But honestly, I think all 3 of them should be sent. Angela is 10 points back of the leaders and we know she has the potential to score really well, so I think she could still easily medal, especially because Miyahara can sometimes get dinged with URs and Park and Gerasimnova are sort of unknowns at this point. I can see 2 girls medaling here, but also the possibility that none do. I think Angela's odds are better than Kiri's actually, points wise she's just a few points behind and her planned content is probably a lot harder. Hicks will probably medal but she's not in the top 3 currently so who knows what could happen. I think only girls who medal should be given a 2nd event though, like for instance I think Barbie, Polina, and Mariah deserve a first assignment before someone like Vanessa Lam, who was 4th at her 1st event, deserves a 2nd. If an American lady is 4th here, I would also say hold off on reassigning her, although if no American girls end up medaling here I bet we'll probably see 4th place finishers get a 2nd event.
     
  23. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I am not sure there's enough time to wait until the third JGP because of potential paperwork issues. There're people here who are more familiar about this, but I think the one week gap between the second and third JGP is what allows USFS to have time to think about sending other ladies. After the third jgp, I don't think there's such a gap
     
  24. skfan

    skfan Member

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    re pinky166's message #172

    if the judges didn't see miyahara's under-rotations today, i'm thinking they won't see them tomorrow either. i love miyahara's skating--she has that suguri-esque flow i adore, but... eh... i think i've seen this movie before :lol:


    angela... well... she just... she kills me.

    still love her skating. i think she continued to present the character of the program despite the errors. it's a more vivid characterization of the movie than her much more TES successful program at 2012 nationals. crossing my fingers that angela will skate a long program she can be happy with tomorrow.


    oh, and i don't think the US ladies will be shut out of the medals--hicks is certainly in prime position. i wouldn't take gerasimova lightly, though--the russian federation has no shortage of talented JGP ladies and she got assigned 2 JGP's off the bat--unlike shershak who only got 1

    http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm


    hopefully mariah bell, barbie long and polina edmunds, possibly yasmin siraj as well, will all be assigned to one JGP each before any non-medaling US lady receives two, though the logistics jlai mentioned will likely enter into it.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2012
  25. feraina

    feraina Well-Known Member

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    Based on the results at JGP #2 today, I'm guessing that for JPG #5, USFSA will replace Vanessa Lam with Courtney Hicks, and Angela Wang will be kept on the roster. Or will they keep the JGP #5 assignments, and send Angela Wang to JGP #6? Given a silver, a bronze, a fourth, and two fifths so far, the chances of Mariah Bell, Barbie Long, and Polina Edmunds getting anything are getting dimmer. :( Not that it's bad that the girls assigned so far are doing well (and all of them acquitted themselves at least passably). I guess it's a matter of having too much depth among the U.S. ladies. Not even Russia and Japan can claim such depth (though the young starlets they do have are astonishingly good).

    I would just really have liked to see Mariah Bell and Polina Edmunds being sent to JGP's. They are both precious!
     
  26. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    I think both Hicks and Wang should go to Slovenia. It's a relatively weak field and will allow room/time for second assignments for all four girls that have yet to compete (Miller, Cesario, Jiang, and Keiser). If Jiang skates like she has so far this summer, there could still be room for at least Long to get one assignment.
     
  27. skfan

    skfan Member

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    i love both mariah and angela. actually, i love baga, keiser, jiang as well. and many others i'm forgetting...

    at this moment i am so happy for angela that i can only mourn a bit for mariah. i prefer not to root against anybody, and i'm also a nervous wreck, so instead of watching live i enjoyed a documentary on sushi and just now peeked at the results. i'm over the moon for angela. so beautiful to watch her flow over the ice :D
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2012
  28. feraina

    feraina Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you. But given last year they gave Ashley Cain a second assignment when she came in only 6th at the first JGP, I think they might keep the assignment for Vanessa Lam, and might even re-assign Ashley Cain and Kiri Baga as well.
     
  29. skfan

    skfan Member

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    weren't there injuries and declined assignments last year that led to 2nd assignments for skaters who didn't place well? this year we have so many young ladies who would like a JGP--it's very different from last year. aside from deserving a JGP, these young skaters also deserve a chance to earn the ISU required minimums to appear at junior worlds, IMO.

    i hope USFS won't re-assign non-medalists this year, but i wouldn't be surprised if feraina's prediction came true.
     
  30. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I think Courtney and Angela should get 2nd assignments and any further reassignments should be reserved for girls who medal at their first event, if any. Vanessa was 4th in her 1st event, but Kiri who was 5th in hers actually scored higher, and further, the 4th place finisher here, Gerasimova, had a higher score than Lam at the 1st event, so in terms of qualifying for the JGPF, Lam's odds are not great. I would replace Lam with Hicks on the roster then wait to see how the other girls hold up before assigning the last 2 spots. I don't think it's wise to send Lam out again because then there is only 1 spot left, and what if Hannah/Samantha/Leah medals or wins her 1st event? Not all could get a 2nd event and that wouldn't be very wise because USFS should want as many girls as possible to qualify for the final.

    Angela was really good in the FS, but in some ways, idk, I think maybe USFS should wait until after the next event before making more assignments, because if say the next 2 girls come home with a gold and a silver, they should get 2nd assignments before Wang with a bronze. Wang would likely still get a 2nd event, but it would be the last event. Idk. It's tricky because the assignments are made before the results come in.