2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    USFS should hold off on assigning any more spots or they could find themselves without a singles ladies JGPF qualifier because they've left themselves no room at all. :rolleyes:

    Like I said, if USFS played their cards right last year Lam, Cesario, and Gold all could have been there. Instead, they assign Gold to the 7th and final JGP, killing both Samantha and Gracie's chances.
  2. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    I don't follow the ladies closely, but I was just about to post the same thing. It seems like they're giving assignments higgeldy-piggeldy, and they may end up with no lady qualified for JGPF. That's just silly.

    At least the men's assignments seem to be following a logical pattern.
  3. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Long, Bell, and Edmunds will get any spots at all unless someone gets injured and needs replacing, or there's a rash of ladies performing poorly at their first event. Better luck next year!
  4. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I dont forsee all the girls assigned doing well in their 1st jgp so I think Long's chance should still be decent though not great. But she can only get one if more than 3 girls falter (9 girls assigned and six spots left)
  5. analia

    analia Member

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    They are obviously just assigning based on nationals scores. Wang and Lam are definitely getting two. Cesario and Hicks are probably getting two as well. Then probably Edmunds and Long are getting the rest two based on summer competition results. It's quite fair, although the pairing of skaters to send to one jgp is not the smartest. Leah and Nina shouldn't go to the same one since it's very unlikely they are getting another jgp.

    I have to say I really start to like Vanessa Lam. If she can get her small jumps rotated cleanly she would go somewhere. She has beautiful extensions and precision in movements. Gracie's skating looks rather raw in comparision.
  6. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    If any of these girls doesn't place top 4 in the first JGP, they will likely not get another one (though there were exceptions in the past). It's highly unlikely Edmunds will get one at this point. Long, maybe. More than 3 girls will have to not receive a second JGP for any more girls to get assigned, since nine girls are already assigned and there're six spots left. Nine minus six is three, so if more than 3 girls do not get a second JGP, then that means another spot is open for Long or Bell (most likely Long)
  7. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    The short program is over, and neither Cain nor Lam is in the top 3. If neither places top 4, which can happen, then Long's chances improve.

    I think it's a shame US girls don't always get to compete when they are skating well; because of the way USFS hands out assignments, really good girls sometimes have a long wait for assignments and by the time the girls get them, they may be past their technical peak, or end up competing seniors with insufficient junior experience (because they didn't get a JGP or only have one), or lose momentum. The Russian girls are much more successsful at the JGPs now, not just because they have talent and momentum (US has talent too), but I think the Russian fed. has been handling the international assignments better. ETA: USFS seems to be more hesitant re: passing less ready skaters over, and as a result, suffers some setbacks in international results.

    JMHO
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2012
  8. feraina

    feraina Active Member

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    ITA. Juniors and seniors don't develop with the same dynamics. Young skaters can improve dramatically in a few short months, or suddenly lose their jumps because of puberty or injury or whatever. USFSA should not be handing out the junior int'l assignments using the same kinds of criteria as for seniors, in particular relying on National's results 8 months earlier.

    The one argument I can think of is that doing well at National's gives stronger evidence of mental fortitude under pressure, but for young prepubescent girls, mental fortitude is something they can pick up (as they are mature) or lose (as hormones kick in, or they get discouraged by some obstacles in training) relatively quickly as well.

    Look how Russia so quickly built up their ladies' skating team in just a few years -- I think this is in large part due to an effective/robust JGP assignment process, which at times seemed cruel (if you are not ready just before a comp, then you lose your spot even if you medaled back at national's). The U.S. doesn't have fewer talented girls than Russia, and certainly has a much larger general base of young skaters to nurture, and yet has managed to do a really terrible job in the past few years in effectively developing young skaters. Frustrating! :blah:
  9. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I'm sorry but it's time to give the younger girls their shot at the JGP. Cesario for instance is 19 years old and is taking a spot away from someone who's perhaps more promising. What is she going to do next year when she ages out? If your almost 20 and still a Junior that says a lot. While i'm not big on Barbie Long or her skating she derserves a GP event as does Polina Edmunds.
  10. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    You know what else says a lot? The fact that Cesario keeps getting injured before Nationals, which has got to be tremendously discouraging, and keeps getting back into amazing shape by the time the next Liberty Open rolls around- popping out top 5 @ Nationals-level free skates. Personally, I'd have put her in the Skate America TBA spot last season, and again this season, based on how mature her presentation is and the fact that she is old enough to be a senior. But if her team and/or the USFS is intent on her staying junior until her last year of eligibility, that's not so bad either. She clearly has been a good representative for them and has shown tenacity and overcome adversity. There's nobody stopping any of these ladies from pulling a Gracie- winning Nationals on the junior level and being so impressive that she gets to go to the GP the next season. For everyone else- yeah, you're going to be in a long line waiting for a JGP, based on your Nationals results, and maybe a stellar summer comp showing will get you a spot at the last JGP event. Barbie Long and Polina Edmunds are wonderful and I'd like to see them with assignments- but they are very young and they will have years and years to get junior spots. There are enough local comps that they still get to compete against high quality skaters and hone their craft/find out where they stand this year.
  11. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I wish USFS would set aside a tba spot at SA and other comps for skaterswho make dramatic improvements over the summer. That would have helped a lot re the waiting thing

    Re Gold. I am curious how she will fare, esp with only three intl comps before this season. I wish she could have gotten to compete more, but perhaps she will pull an Emily Hughes and do just fine, though not everyone can be Hughes
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2012
  12. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Well, results for the first JGP for ladies are in and I wouldn't assign Lam or Cain to another event considering they finished in 4th and 5th so neither has a good shot at qualifying for the JGPF, especially considering their scores, with Lam barely scraping 140 and Cain in the mid 130s. Maybe Barbie and Polina will get assignments after all, if USFS is smart, that is. Vanessa getting a 2nd event is maybe reasonable, b/c with a win she might qualify for the JGPF, and she has won events in the past, but Cain I definitely wouldn't give a 2nd event to as even with a win at her 2nd event she probably wouldn't make the cut, and I doubt she has the technical goods to win an event anyways. Impressive score for Radinova however...Russia has amazing wealth in ladies skating, incredible to see.
  13. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    I think USFS should wait until after the JGP Lake Placid results are in (Wang, Hicks, Baga) before assigning the ladies for JGP #5.

    ETA: I heard that Barbie Long won the Junior Ladies event at DuPage Open 2 weekends ago, scoring 152.07 total (53.67 SP, 98.40 FS) so she seems ready for the JGP if she is the alternate who is next in line to be assigned.
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2012
  14. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    The difference between Emily and Gracie is that Emily had pretty solid nerves of steel, which can't really be said of the US ladies we have right now. Gold had to work towards controlling her competitive nerves, and she has come a long way since 2 seasons ago when she didn't qualify for Nationals. She went to see a sports psychologist to help her with her nerve issues and it worked well last season. The true test, though, will be this season and how she fares being in the spotlight.
  15. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    Disappointing results for the US Ladies, particularly Lam. She had a big opening to skate up to silver (gold was out of the question), but failed to deliver. She didn't land a clean 3Lz in the competition; and had a couple of downgrades. I'm not sure if I'd give her another event. I agree with Sylvia, the USFS should wait and see.

    Cain, of course, does not deserve a second event.
  16. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    no 2nd event for vanessa lam. i'd rather see long and mariah bell or long and edmunds at JGP#5. mariah's jumps are no smaller than vanessa's, and vanessa is not exactly consistent. at least mariah has plenty of charisma. and with only 6 JGP finalists and 7 JGP events (all of which will have a first place finisher), i don't think it's reasonable to give a 4th place finisher another assignment. i don't see vanessa winning a JGP with those jumps and her far from stellar consistency.

    USFS abided by nationals order and gave jiang a JGP despite jiang's dreadful summer outings (and this coming from a jiang fan)--so by the same token, they ought to give one to mariah ahead of edmunds! :) mariah had at least a couple of strong outings, unlike jiang. and edmunds hasn't been hannah miller when it comes to summer consistency, either. edmunds *will* still get hers--still 2 JGP left even if USFS assigned long and bell for JGP #5.
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2012
  17. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Yes, I admire Cesario's tenacity and ability to come back after injury as well. One thing to remember is that winning a JGP medal guarantees Team C envelope funding the following season. This is how Cesario and Courtney Hicks qualified for Team C envelope funding this season despite not competing at 2012 Nationals and every "penny" counts! I assume their JGP success last year also contributed to their receiving initial JGP assignments this season.

    ETA: skfan, you're not wishing that Wang, Hicks, Baga, Cesario, Miller, Keiser and Jiang not medal in their respective 1st JGP assignments, right? ;)
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2012
  18. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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  19. vexlak

    vexlak Member

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    The entry forms for Bled Slovenia were due no later than 8/24/2012 by 2PM EST. So the forms with the participants were already sent which means that the decision must have been made. Those "going" also know. Change is possible, however I am not sure if the USFSA will do that unless there is a documented injury for the originaly signed participant, in which case an alternate will go.

    Here is the announcement:
    http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=3562
  20. vexlak

    vexlak Member

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  21. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    I hope Cain & Lam don't receive 2nd assignments. Nothing personal against them, but their chances of qualifying for the JGPF are already pretty slim. It's probably better at this point to give other girls international experience and let Ashley & Vanessa train for Nationals. It seems they both have a lot of work to do. :shuffle:
  22. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    USFS usually tells their JGP skaters to disregard what is published on the ISU site regarding the later JGP assignments (names are submitted as "placeholders") and that they will be officially notified when they receive an assignment to one of the later JGPs -- that's why the listing of JGP alternates is so important (and why I thought it was important for Polina Edmunds to be added, finally, as an alternate starting with JGP #4).

    ETA: Jason Brown and McNamara/Carpenter were provisionally assigned to JGP #4 in Turkey on the ISU site but their names are not listed on USFS' International Assignments page now.
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2012
  23. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    Sylvia, i spent the hours the ladies skated very productively, not watching any scoreboard, because i did not want to project any desired outcomes! :lol:

    the skating gods have forsaken me since 1994; i do not want to get farther on their bad side. i did say i wouldn't root against any U.S. lady no matter how much i favored certain US ladies. :D

    once i saw the results, though, i had an inevitable reaction to them. :p

    if JGP#5 participants have already been chosen, then i think only barbie long still has a shot at a JGP. and that's sad for mariah bell and polina edmunds. maybe if USFS makes it clear that they will send U.S.Nationals SENIORS down to #12 to JGP before any USNat JUNIORs below #3, karen chen and polina and barbie all would register by september 1 to become seniors at next year's nationals. it must be hard for mariah, not only because no one will mistake her jumps for polina edmunds', but because if she were senior she would be competing with her sister for a spot at regionals and sectionals.

    whatever. as long as mariah still skates, USFS will still receive my money, however vehemently i disagree with USFS' decisions (unless they try to turn her into a pairs skater... in which case, i'll go back to watching gymnastics) :lol:
  24. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    As previously mentioned, the JGP #5 assignments are still provisional for U.S. skaters, no matter what the ISU site says.

    Also, Karen Chen is not old enough for the JGP this season.
  25. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    i'm talking about next season. i'm tired of vanessa lam and ashley cain against radionova. bring on our big gun, however tiny she might be :lol:
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, and given the girls at JGP #1s placements, there is still a definite possibility for Barbie, Polina, and Mariah to all receive an assignment, potentially. If they do it probably will be late and there might not be time for any of them to get a 2nd event should she medal at her 1st, but it's not out of the question. In the past, 4th place has usually been the cutoff for a 2nd event, and that was when there were 8 spots in the JGPF instead of 6, but last season it was weird and Siraj with a 5th place was given a 2nd event, which she turned down so then Ashley Cain with a 6th place ended up getting a 2nd, and then Lam, Cesario, and Hicks all got 2 events as well (deservedly, all medaled at their 1st events), and even still, Gracie who was late to be added to the ISP and alternates list ended up getting to go to the last event. This season I think it makes sense to make 3rd place the cutoff, one because there are a lot of good girls in contention this season, and secondly because the stars would have to align pretty perfectly for a girl with a 4th place or lower finish in one event to qualify for the JGPF, and the way I see it, if someone is not going to qualify, why send them out again if there are other talented ladies sitting at home?
  27. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

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    Clarity would be wonderful, wouldn't it? Every year it's different. Some years novices are assigned. Some years juniors down to sixth get to go; other years they stop at J4. I really think the only reason they went down to S12 this year is because they want Keiser on the JGP and they refuse to skip anybody in line.

    Even though seniors are being favored this year, there are some advantages to staying junior. For example, one has to finish in the top 7 as a senior to earn envelope money, which is very hard to do. If you finish in the top 5 as a junior, you also earn envelope money and potentially could make the JGP as well.
  28. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Reposting what I said in the US Ladies thread:

  29. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    re jenna in #148

    i can only accept giving vlam or any of the other already-assigned ladies a 2nd IF barbie, mariah, polina already have been assigned to one JGP each.

    IMO if none of the presumed contenders skate and place well, none of them should get a second assignment. odds are some will place well and earn 2nd assignment, but why should USFS assign a 2nd to vanessa just because the other 'contenders' also fail to live up to expectations? have we run out of JGP eligible ladies already?
  30. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I thought the more consistent US ladies are competing at the second and third JGP, so given that, 4th and 5th aren't so shabby -- US ladies will have a much better showing next week (and likely the week after).

    Lam's score was high in the summer, but the calling at club comps is usually more generous and Lam jumps are small. While I don't necessarily agree with Nina Jiang getting a JGP, I suspect Lam's and Jiang's JGP score will end up a lot closer than what club comps indicate.
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2012
  31. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    IMO, Satoko Miyahara and Elena Radionova are the big favorites for the next two events (barring disaster, I don't see anyone beating Radionova in Austria) but after that it's wide open, so Wang, Cesario, etc are very much in competition for medals.
  32. modern_muslimah

    modern_muslimah Well-Known Member

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    :lol: I know! I would love to see Radionova and Chen duke it out! However, I don't think our wish will be granted until the 2014-15 season (I'm going to assume that Radionova will want to do the SGP next season if she keeps competing like she did this weekend).
  33. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    double post.
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2012
  34. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    i think that might be a big reason why Sylvia is advocating waiting til after JGP #2 to finalize assignments for JGP#5. i'm thinking the USFS expects a lot from hicks--the article about JGP lake placid barely mentions wang and baga (were they mentioned at all?). :lol:


    i also don't see radionova finishing behind anyone in juniors this season barring disaster, but i fully expect hannah miller to finish 2nd to radionova and make the JGPF. after miller, though, i have no expectations of any U.S. lady.
  35. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    I think Angela Wang definitely has the goods to beat Satoko Miyahara in Lake Placid next week. Angela's jumps have improved tenfold since working with Christy Krall, as well as the quality of her skating. Angela also gets great spring on her jumps, whereas most of Satoko's always look borderline underroated.
  36. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    but the calling of borderline underrotations is... rather unpredictable, let's say.:lol:

    i love angela's skating. i wish she had been the one to approximate a kwan-style transformation this season, rather than vanessa, but i have learned that the skate gods think differently. i learned that last season too when angela was only the 3rd alternate to junior worlds. :lol:

    you, on the other hand, have been nothing but a gracious skating fan... so... is the correct expression 'your word to god's ear'? :D

    even though i like miyahara and baga too... and USFS' press favors hicks...:dog:
  37. NMURA

    NMURA Member

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    Miyahara's jumps are small though, except for last year's second JGP, she hasn't received many UR calls. Mostly one par a competition. I suspect THAT caller was specially told to prevent Miyahara from making to JGPF. There were enough reasons for the JSF to do that. They wanted to give Shoji the chance to win a JGPF medal and make a smooth transition to the senior rank. Miyahara's presence would difinitely have threatened Shoji. It is quite apparent that Miyahara is the federation's favorite of his season (and Shoji was dumped into the toughest competition). I think she can expect better treatments in this season.
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2012
  38. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    ^
    sorry for being off topic, but what happened to haruna suzuki's JGP? i thought she was assigned to one but
    http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm

    shows she's not assigned to any of them. i know haruna skated below expectations recently in a within-japan competition, but did she lose her JGP because of that? is she injured?

    anyway, back on the topic of US ladies, this is the vid i've been most enamored with lately.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTzaPSRE31E

    and her posture is superlative, and her jumps are nice and high. :swoon: best of luck to kiri too at lake placid.
  39. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Sort of disappointed with Jason Brown's showing. I mean, he won silver and will definitely get another assignment, but he didn't even ATTEMPT a 3a and as a result he got beaten by a Chinese baby. His PCS are good, but aren't going to be enough unless he starts going for the 3a in competition. Jin is a no name youngster and he didn't beat Hino by a large margin here either, and Hino is quite weak in the PCS department so that's really alarming for Jason. To make it on the senior ranks, he realistically probably needs a 3a AND a quad if we are being perfectly honest, and yet he won't even TRY the 3a in competition, even though his PCS allow him the room to make a mistake on it and still wind up with a medal. He's almost 18 now, if he doesn't at least start going for that jump soon, it makes me wonder if he really even has that jump and if he will ever even make it to the GP because without one, he's going to wind up like Cassar. Rippon has big 3a troubles and doesn't have a consistent quad either, but at least he always goes for them in competition, the same of which cannot be said for Brown.

    As for Choate I assume he will get a 2nd event because the pool of men is not that big or that deep this season. Solid score and showing, but what I said for Jason is even more relevant for Harrison, he REALLY needs the 3a and fast, otherwise he might not even make it to Nationals, as the rest of his skating is fine, solid, but he doesn't standout in any areas and is still quite awkward IMO.

    Really worried about Brown though. A coaching change might be needed, this is a big deal...
  40. Jun Y

    Jun Y Well-Known Member

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    Harrison Choate has long had a jump technique issue. In the air his head is not perfectly aligned to the middle axis. The arms are also a bit loose sometimes. If the technique is not fixed, there is no point going after the triple Axel.