2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    The USFS might have to be tactical in regards to the men's assignments, Brown, Farris, and Chen all theoretically have good shots at qualifying for the JGPF, whereas I think the stars would need to allign for most of the other men (Yostanto, Choate, Kaugers, Wang, etc.) to qualify, so ideally, USFS probably wants to avoid having those 3 (Brown, Farris, Chen) compete against Han Yan before the JGPF, of course, one of them will have to compete against Yan at least once assuming all 3 are each assigned 2 events, but what would really be undesirable is having any one of those guys compete at the same 2 events as Yan, especially where there are now only 6 spots in the final and 2 silvers could potentially not be enough to qualify.

    Of course, there are other strong men, Keiji Tanaka most notably but also his teammates Hino (strong tech) and Uno (does he have 3a now?), as well as the likes of Kovtun, Nyugen, etc. Maybe they aren't thinking about it but I think it would be pretty risky to send any guy to the same 2 events as Yan unless USFS is sure he won't qualify for the JGPF, which would be unlikely, as to get a 2nd assignment, a good placement at his 1st would probably be needed...
     
  2. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Because there're only 8 initial spots (2 assignments per JGP plus host pick at Lake Placid--there're 15 spots, so 8 initial spots). 12 girls deserve a spot on paper, and with a handful of exceptions, most monitored fairly well to very well this summer. Who would you leave out? :(

    ETA: COme to think of it, I don't remember if Baga did a summer event, and if so how she did.
    I prefer Cesario and Edmunds having a shot at the earlier JGPs, though the way things go, I can see how some girls who are ready for senior events are doing jgp again.

    ETA: WHile I'm at it, I don't remember Troy Tomasello or Kevin Shum having done a summer event either.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  3. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    I know Cain did well at nationals, but i dont believe she has the technical ability to match the other US Junior Ladies. Sure if she manages to skate to clean programs then she is still going to do well, but i dont see her making the final. Whereas most others all have the potential to make the final if they skate clean programs
     
  4. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    If Ashley skates all out with clean programs I not only see her making the final but probably winning her events, too. If she ever landed all of her triples in addition to her spins and artistry she would definitely be tough to beat on the junior level. Her problem is and always has been consistency.
     
  5. Impromptu

    Impromptu Well-Known Member

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    She did do one - Skate Milwaukee (?). I think she finished second to Gracie Gold in the SP (and ahead of both Helegesson sisters), and won the FP (Gold only competed in the SP). Ah, found the posting. Yes second in the SP, 49.75; first in FS 90.07.
     
  6. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Kiri Baga won the Senior Ladies event at Skate Milwaukee in mid-July. Official results have not been published online -- the scores I received were 49.17 (SP), 90.07 (FS) = 139.24 (ETA: this score would be #10 among U.S. Senior ladies, if verified), but I never heard any confirmed jump details for her. Baga, Nina Jiang, and Hannah Miller are scheduled to compete in Senior Ladies at Skate Detroit this week, along with Troy Tomasello (8th in Jr. at Nationals) in Junior Men.

    There are several JGP-eligible pairs competing in the Junior Pairs event at Skate Detroit -- results for the SP are posted in the event thread in Kiss and Cry: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=3629453#post3629453
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  7. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    you make very good points.

    i want to say if USFS can pass over mariah bell to annoint edmunds (did you see the vaca valley results Jenna linked to?), then they can skip over jiang to send keiser if they think keiser is all that. but jiang may yet land perfect 3f's with +2 GOE at skate detroit, so my argument might have a few more holes in it by the weekend. i hope jiang does well, in fact... :)

    there may be only 8 initial assignments, but i wouldn't expect all 8 to skate well + score well. i would only expect big scores for cain (kira korpi PCS beauty bonus) and lam (last year's JGP finalist), maybe hicks and cesario.

    i wouldn't fret over edmunds just yet. i think edmunds is guaranteed 1 and will very likely get 2. she also only landed 2 triples (very unexpected) at vaca valley, so... our impressions of prospective JGP participants may fluctuate wildly through JGP season. imagine the fun if karen chen were also eligible... ^^

    if you want me to pretend i'm USFS (LOL... as if i could come close to understanding their mindset)

    cain
    lam
    hicks
    cesario
    wang
    keiser
    2 of these 3: baga, miller, edmunds. probably baga and miller.

    probably enough of the initial group will falter that edmunds, long, and miller all stand a good shot at getting 2, even if they weren't among the 'initial 8.' unless USFS already decided certain skaters are guaranteed 2, in which case it hardly matters who's among the 'initial 8'. USFS should just select all the JGP's at once like for senior GP's... and announce it so we can debate the wisdom of their projections even earlier :)

    who are the 12 deserving ladies on your list? ^__^
     
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Edmunds was fantastic at Broadmoor Open, I tend to think if she skates that well or nearly that well again at Glacier Falls she will certainly be assigned to a JGP, and hopefully an earlier one so that she has time to be assigned a 2nd should she do well. If Glacier Falls doesn't go so well she could still be assigned (I mean her 170+ at BMO alone should be enough to get her assignment as it speaks to her scoring potential), but it would probably be later on and dependent on how others do at their first events and how many of them get a 2nd.

    Lam was hot and cold last season, and her PCS aren't super internationally, so I'm not sure she's a shoo-in for the final, likely she will get 2 assignments, but we'll have to see, she was only 13th at JW after all and had that meltdown in the FS at the JGPF, which she was lucky to qualify for anyways as she won her gold by like a tenth of a point.

    Cain should do well if she skates well, and same goes for Jiang, and Siraj too, the thing with those three is that their jumps are often hit or miss. PCS internationally in the past have always been strong and good performances rewarded.

    Bell skated well in Vail but not very well at Broadmoor Open, so I think if she skates well at her final summer comp (Glacier Falls? Skate Detroit?) that would help her get a JGP earlier, and if she doesn't skate well there, USFS might hold off and wait to see how the other girls do before sending her, and if it works out that a lot of girls aren't getting 2nd events she could still be assigned later.

    As long as Keiser does reasonably well at Glacier Falls I think she will be assigned, and early on too.

    Anyways the 12 girls that deserve JGPs the poster mentioned are probably:

    Ashley Cain
    Hannah Miller
    Barbie Long
    Mariah Bell
    Polina Edmunds
    Vanessa Lam
    Angela Wang
    Kiri Baga
    Nina Jiang
    Leah Keiser
    Yasmin Siraj
    Samantha Cesario
    Courtney Hicks

    That's actually 13..

    As for who gets assigned when, I think we'll have to wait and see more summer results to get a better idea.
     
  9. Rochelle

    Rochelle Active Member

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    Have we heard any more rumblings about the pairs? With Detroit, Liberty, Broadmoor, LA Open, etc. underway... and Indy Challenge next weekend (Aug. 3-5th), I'd imagine we'd start to hear about some plans for the pairs.

    Looks like these five teams have all hit past 120, via Sylvia's Score Tracker (http://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/scoretracker/2012-2013-pairs-scores/) and the Liberty & Skate Detroit results:
    *Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier J1/JW4
    *Britney Simpson & Matthew Blackmer JGPF3/J2/JW10
    *Jessica Noelle Calalang & Zack Sidhu JGPF-wd/J4
    Jessica Pfund & AJ Reiss J5
    *Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage J6

    Thus I'd imagine those teams are all going to be assigned to Jr. Grand Prix events.

    And then all five of these pairs seem to be scoring in about the same range at Liberty and Detroit:
    Brianna de la Mora & Taylor Wilson J8
    *Olivia Oltmanns & Joshua Santillan J9
    Audrey Goldberg & Joseph Dolkiewicz J10
    Christina Zaitsev & Ernie Stevens N4
    (Possible Belt/Johnson addition, if added to ISP)?)

    Any news?
     
  10. UDelpairs2012

    UDelpairs2012 New Member

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    I would imagine that more news would be available regarding the teams selected to compete on the JGP after Indy challenge this coming up week. However, I imagine that you are correct that the 5 teams who have hit past 120 points would be the 5 to get the initial assignments.
     
  11. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    They're not listed on the ISP page (yet), but I believe Caitlin Belt/Michael Johnson are in the ISP now. :)

    Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier mention their assignment to the Lake Placid JGP in a Skate Detroit article -- I've cross-posted the link in this post in the U.S. Pairs thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=3635834#post3635834
     
  12. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Posted today in the U.S. Team Envelopes/ISP thread in GSD:
     
  13. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Entries for JGP #2 in Lake Placid, NY have been published online (link is posted in the "JGP Entries" thread in the 2012-14 Kiss and Cry forum) and the Team USA selections are:

    Angela WANG (S8 at 2012 Nationals), Kiri BAGA (S10), Courtney HICKS (gold at 2011 JGP AUS);
    Joshua FARRIS (S16/JW2), Lukas KAUGARS (J5), James SCHETELICH (N2);
    Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER (J1/JW4), Jessica PFUND / AJ REISS (J5), Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGE (J6), Olivia OLTMANNS / Joshua SANTILLAN (J9);
    Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON (J1/JW3), Madeline HERITAGE / Nathaniel FAST (J5), Elliana POGREBINSKY / Ross GUDIS (J8).

    Alternates are (listed alphabetically):
    Mariah BELL (J5), Ashley CAIN (J2; JGP FRA), Samantha CESARIO (S-wd/2 JGP bronzes last season), Nina JIANG (S11), Leah KEISER (S12), Vanessa LAM (S9; JGP FRA), Barbie LONG (J4), Hannah MILLER (J3), Yasmin SIRAJ (S15);
    Jason BROWN (S9; JGP FRA), Nathan CHEN (J1), Harrison CHOATE (J4; JGP FRA), Spencer HOWE (N3), Shotaro OMORI (P-J5/2 JGPs last season), Troy TOMASELLO (J8), Jay YOSTANTO (J7);
    Caitlin BELT / Michael JOHNSON (YOG4), Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU (J4), Brianna DE LA MORA / Taylor WILSON (J8), Audrey GOLDBERG / Joseph DOLKIEWICZ (J10), Britney SIMPSON / Matthew BLACKMER (J2), Christina ZAITSEV / Ernie Utah STEVENS (N4);
    Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER (J3; JGP FRA), Whitney MILLER / Kyle MACMILLAN (N2), Holly MOORE / Daniel KLABER (N1; JGP FRA), Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS (J4; YOG4), Hannah ROSINSKI / Jacob JAFFE (N3).
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2012
  14. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

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    I love that USFS used four spots in pairs! :respec:
     
  15. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Keeping fingers crossed for Hannah Miller and Leah Keiser!!
     
  16. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

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    I was close last time, I'm guessing based on these assignments we will see the following in JGP Austria. Jessica Calalang/Zack Sidhu, Brianna De La Mora/Taylor Wilson, Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer, Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser, Rachel Parsons/Michael Parsons, Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker, Nathan Chen, Jay Yostanto.
     
  17. crankyintheAM

    crankyintheAM New Member

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    Thank you for the info, Sylvia!

    I was sure I'd read somewhere that D/F would go Sr this season :confused: Now I wonder what pair I'm confusing them with :shuffle:

    I hope Simpson/Blackmer get the next event.
     
  18. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    Can they really use FOUR spots for Pairs?? Can someone please knowledgeable about the rules confirm this, or I'll cry another "chinese extra spot" scandal in the making :D
     
  19. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Denney/Frazier are planning to compete Senior in the US this season - they just competed Senior at Skate Detroit (3rd in SP, 2nd in FS): http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=3635834#post3635834

    From the 2012-13 JGP General Announcement:
    "For the Organizing Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pairs’ event."
     
  20. crankyintheAM

    crankyintheAM New Member

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    Ah! That's where my confusion came from then. Thank you! :)
     
  21. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    JGP #3 Linz, Austria entries are up and posted in the JGP entries thread in Kiss and Cry.
    Team USA:
    Samantha Cesario & Hannah Miller (J3);
    Nathan Chen (J1) & Jay Yostanto (J7);
    Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer (J2), Jessica Calalang/Zack Sidhu (J4), Brianna de la Mora/Taylor Wilson (J8);
    Rachel & Michael Parsons (J4), Whitney Miller & Kyle MacMillan (N2)

    New sub. in dance: Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker; no new alternates listed in men, ladies or pairs.

    Listed but not yet assigned:
    Men - Troy Tomasello (J8; has not competed this summer yet, AFAIK), Spencer Howe (N3), Shotaro Omori (P-J5; 2 JGPs last fall)
    Ladies - Nina Jiang (S11), Leah Keiser (S12), Yasmin Siraj (S15), Barbie Long (J4), Mariah Bell (J5)
    Pairs - Goldberg/Dolkiewicz (J10), Zaitsev/Stevens (N4), Belt/Johnson (E-J5/YOG-4)

    ETA:
    7 out of 9 guesses correct - impressive! :)

    ETA #2 from the U.S. Ladies [4] thread:
    I wonder if inconsistency in summer competitions actually is a factor as to why Polina Edmunds hasn't been listed as an alternate yet or is it simply because of her placement at Nationals (J6)? There's still time for her, so let's see what happens.
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2012
  22. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    And here was me thinking not five minutes ago that it must be time for the next round of JGP entries. :lol:
     
  23. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Yet skaters who were 10th up to 15th in Seniors are being considered, including Baga who has a limited jump arsenal and Jiang who's had awful summer outings so far.

    It makes absolutely zero sense to me.
     
  24. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Gracie Gold was consistently scoring near, at, or above 100 points in her FS last summer and USFS only assigned her to the 7th and final event. Polina has had some astronomical numbers this summer (114+) but also some low ones (74+). I think that could be a factor in why she's not listed as an alternate as well.
     
  25. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    edmunds has got a lot of people ahead of her. miller, like gracie last season, has been consistent. edmunds hasn't. yes, they both can score high, but one has consistently done so and one hasn't.

    i think the main reason USFS has mostly gone to seniors is because USFS wants to give keiser (US Senior#12) a spot, and skipping over both baga and jiang might be a bit outside USFS' comfort zone. although a devil's advocate might ask why siraj ahead of mckinzie daniels in the international selection pool...

    jiang, yes, they have some basis for going to keiser ahead of jiang. full disclosure--i am a jiang fan and prefer her to hicks, cesario, edmunds as a skater, so i'm not bashing jiang, but from the scores compiled it appears jiang has not skated well in a single summer competition thus far. baga, on the other hand, is not only ahead of keiser by 2 spots, she's also had more previous success on the JGP than jiang.

    if you want to be cynical/strategic in mindset and don't consider baga a strong skater (now, i like baga's skating a *lot*--i prefer her skating to the skating/style of hicks, cesario and edmunds--but in terms of summer results, edmunds has outpaced baga)... then you can say baga might have been selected for JGP lake placid so that it will be easier for hicks to place #1 or #2, with miyahara being the other top name skater that i'm familiar with. not to say another russian baby won't come out and snag gold, though of course i'm rooting for wang :). if you look at how baga has done this summer vs. miller who has been on top of her game in every competition, baga won't pose as huge a challenge to hicks as miller would. i expect miller to make the JGPF, the way she's been skating.



    ETA i find it curious that everyone is so keen to make sure edmunds get assigned early--what about barbie long vs. edmunds? no one's irked that baga got assigned ahead of barbie long or hannah miller? :lol: neither long nor edmunds has been perfect, but in terms of scoring potential i think barbie long is right up there with edmunds.

    i hope the US ladies place well, but odds are not all the initially assigned will place well, and edmunds will get at least 1 and probably 2 JGP spots.
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2012
  26. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    skfan - Yeah obviously Barbie Long should have been considered before Baga, Jiang and Siraj as well.

    Yeah and I am still feeling outraged about Gold only getting one JGP last season. :drama:
     
  27. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    This is also important to note as Gracie was NOT listed as an alternate early on, maybe added to the sub list in the 5th or 6th event, but I think she was only added to the ISP in like September or something, and she did end up getting assigned.

    At this point, I would say Polina is definitely behind Barbie in terms of being assigned, but after that, it's hard to say. Mariah placed 1 spot ahead of her at Nationals and like Polina has competed a lot this summer with mixed results, however her best results were nowhere close to as good as Polina's while her bad results were just as bad. Leah Keiser skated very well in the 1 or 2 summer events she competed in, but having skated senior in Nationals, it's hard to tell where she fits in, because she placed behind Nina Jiang there, so even though Nina has not been skating very well this summer, they could potentially assign Nina before Leah. And then in terms of Mariah & Polina vs. Leah & Nina it's hard to say who will go first of those 4.

    I tend to think the next 2 girls assigned will be Barbie and Leah. Then after that, I don't know what will happen. I think Polina and Mariah both have a good shot to be assigned, and the odds for Nina and Yasmin aren't as good, but whether this actually happens and if they will be assigned before the 6th or 7th event I do not know.

    Logical entries for JGP 5 would be Polina and Mariah, but I don't know if they'd already be reassigning other girls at that point should they medal at their first events.
     
  28. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Re-posting from the U.S. Team Envelope/ISP thread in GSD...

    Jordan Moeller -- 2011 Novice Men's silver medalist who placed 5th in Junior at Midwestern Sectionals last season and placed 3rd in Junior (161.02 total) at the Glacier Falls competition earlier this month -- was added to the ISP as of August 14.

    Off to watch his programs at Glacier Falls on IN... will report back later.

    ETA: Moeller skated very well in both programs and has a nice flow across the ice - jump notes:
    SP ("A Day in the Life" - Jeff Beck): 3Lz+3T, 2A, 3F;
    FS ("The Exogenesis Symphonies" by Muse - he skated a version with different cuts last season and changed it to resemble Jeremy Abbott's version which I liked much more): 3Lz+2T, 2A+3T, 3F, 3Lo, 3Lz, 3F fall, 3S, 'tano 2A off-balance.

    BTW, Gracie Gold and Leah Keiser were added to the ISP last summer in late July after their stellar performances at 2011 Skate Detroit and Liberty, respectively (also added were Jay Yostanto, Barbie Long and Mariah Bell). However, neither showed up as listed JGP alternates until #6 in Milan.

    I think it's likely that USFS will wait for the results of JGP #1 in Courchevel before making skater assignments for JGP #5, and this could make the assignments for #4 all the more intriguing...
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2012
  29. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I watched Jordan Moeller last weekend thinking he must have liked Jeremy's programs. :)
     
  30. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    thank you for the info.

    do you think that similarly, USFS won't pick JGP#6 until after results from #2 come in? there's 2 weeks between #2 and #3, IIRC, so will #7 be selected before the results of #3 come in?

    in past years, has assignments to JGP #1 been given to the skaters whom USFS expects the best results from?

    re: moeller, i like his skating, i like his music (both programs), and i think it's gutsy to skate to a cut so similar to jeremy's--the very year after jeremy skated his stellar program.