2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    JGP #3 Linz, Austria entries are up and posted in the JGP entries thread in Kiss and Cry.
    Team USA:
    Samantha Cesario & Hannah Miller (J3);
    Nathan Chen (J1) & Jay Yostanto (J7);
    Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer (J2), Jessica Calalang/Zack Sidhu (J4), Brianna de la Mora/Taylor Wilson (J8);
    Rachel & Michael Parsons (J4), Whitney Miller & Kyle MacMillan (N2)

    New sub. in dance: Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker; no new alternates listed in men, ladies or pairs.

    Listed but not yet assigned:
    Men - Troy Tomasello (J8; has not competed this summer yet, AFAIK), Spencer Howe (N3), Shotaro Omori (P-J5; 2 JGPs last fall)
    Ladies - Nina Jiang (S11), Leah Keiser (S12), Yasmin Siraj (S15), Barbie Long (J4), Mariah Bell (J5)
    Pairs - Goldberg/Dolkiewicz (J10), Zaitsev/Stevens (N4), Belt/Johnson (E-J5/YOG-4)

    ETA:
    7 out of 9 guesses correct - impressive! :)

    ETA #2 from the U.S. Ladies [4] thread:
    I wonder if inconsistency in summer competitions actually is a factor as to why Polina Edmunds hasn't been listed as an alternate yet or is it simply because of her placement at Nationals (J6)? There's still time for her, so let's see what happens.
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2012
  2. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    And here was me thinking not five minutes ago that it must be time for the next round of JGP entries. :lol:
  3. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Yet skaters who were 10th up to 15th in Seniors are being considered, including Baga who has a limited jump arsenal and Jiang who's had awful summer outings so far.

    It makes absolutely zero sense to me.
  4. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Gracie Gold was consistently scoring near, at, or above 100 points in her FS last summer and USFS only assigned her to the 7th and final event. Polina has had some astronomical numbers this summer (114+) but also some low ones (74+). I think that could be a factor in why she's not listed as an alternate as well.
  5. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    edmunds has got a lot of people ahead of her. miller, like gracie last season, has been consistent. edmunds hasn't. yes, they both can score high, but one has consistently done so and one hasn't.

    i think the main reason USFS has mostly gone to seniors is because USFS wants to give keiser (US Senior#12) a spot, and skipping over both baga and jiang might be a bit outside USFS' comfort zone. although a devil's advocate might ask why siraj ahead of mckinzie daniels in the international selection pool...

    jiang, yes, they have some basis for going to keiser ahead of jiang. full disclosure--i am a jiang fan and prefer her to hicks, cesario, edmunds as a skater, so i'm not bashing jiang, but from the scores compiled it appears jiang has not skated well in a single summer competition thus far. baga, on the other hand, is not only ahead of keiser by 2 spots, she's also had more previous success on the JGP than jiang.

    if you want to be cynical/strategic in mindset and don't consider baga a strong skater (now, i like baga's skating a *lot*--i prefer her skating to the skating/style of hicks, cesario and edmunds--but in terms of summer results, edmunds has outpaced baga)... then you can say baga might have been selected for JGP lake placid so that it will be easier for hicks to place #1 or #2, with miyahara being the other top name skater that i'm familiar with. not to say another russian baby won't come out and snag gold, though of course i'm rooting for wang :). if you look at how baga has done this summer vs. miller who has been on top of her game in every competition, baga won't pose as huge a challenge to hicks as miller would. i expect miller to make the JGPF, the way she's been skating.



    ETA i find it curious that everyone is so keen to make sure edmunds get assigned early--what about barbie long vs. edmunds? no one's irked that baga got assigned ahead of barbie long or hannah miller? :lol: neither long nor edmunds has been perfect, but in terms of scoring potential i think barbie long is right up there with edmunds.

    i hope the US ladies place well, but odds are not all the initially assigned will place well, and edmunds will get at least 1 and probably 2 JGP spots.
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2012
  6. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    skfan - Yeah obviously Barbie Long should have been considered before Baga, Jiang and Siraj as well.

    Yeah and I am still feeling outraged about Gold only getting one JGP last season. :drama:
  7. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    This is also important to note as Gracie was NOT listed as an alternate early on, maybe added to the sub list in the 5th or 6th event, but I think she was only added to the ISP in like September or something, and she did end up getting assigned.

    At this point, I would say Polina is definitely behind Barbie in terms of being assigned, but after that, it's hard to say. Mariah placed 1 spot ahead of her at Nationals and like Polina has competed a lot this summer with mixed results, however her best results were nowhere close to as good as Polina's while her bad results were just as bad. Leah Keiser skated very well in the 1 or 2 summer events she competed in, but having skated senior in Nationals, it's hard to tell where she fits in, because she placed behind Nina Jiang there, so even though Nina has not been skating very well this summer, they could potentially assign Nina before Leah. And then in terms of Mariah & Polina vs. Leah & Nina it's hard to say who will go first of those 4.

    I tend to think the next 2 girls assigned will be Barbie and Leah. Then after that, I don't know what will happen. I think Polina and Mariah both have a good shot to be assigned, and the odds for Nina and Yasmin aren't as good, but whether this actually happens and if they will be assigned before the 6th or 7th event I do not know.

    Logical entries for JGP 5 would be Polina and Mariah, but I don't know if they'd already be reassigning other girls at that point should they medal at their first events.
  8. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Re-posting from the U.S. Team Envelope/ISP thread in GSD...

    Jordan Moeller -- 2011 Novice Men's silver medalist who placed 5th in Junior at Midwestern Sectionals last season and placed 3rd in Junior (161.02 total) at the Glacier Falls competition earlier this month -- was added to the ISP as of August 14.

    Off to watch his programs at Glacier Falls on IN... will report back later.

    ETA: Moeller skated very well in both programs and has a nice flow across the ice - jump notes:
    SP ("A Day in the Life" - Jeff Beck): 3Lz+3T, 2A, 3F;
    FS ("The Exogenesis Symphonies" by Muse - he skated a version with different cuts last season and changed it to resemble Jeremy Abbott's version which I liked much more): 3Lz+2T, 2A+3T, 3F, 3Lo, 3Lz, 3F fall, 3S, 'tano 2A off-balance.

    BTW, Gracie Gold and Leah Keiser were added to the ISP last summer in late July after their stellar performances at 2011 Skate Detroit and Liberty, respectively (also added were Jay Yostanto, Barbie Long and Mariah Bell). However, neither showed up as listed JGP alternates until #6 in Milan.

    I think it's likely that USFS will wait for the results of JGP #1 in Courchevel before making skater assignments for JGP #5, and this could make the assignments for #4 all the more intriguing...
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2012
  9. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I watched Jordan Moeller last weekend thinking he must have liked Jeremy's programs. :)
  10. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    thank you for the info.

    do you think that similarly, USFS won't pick JGP#6 until after results from #2 come in? there's 2 weeks between #2 and #3, IIRC, so will #7 be selected before the results of #3 come in?

    in past years, has assignments to JGP #1 been given to the skaters whom USFS expects the best results from?

    re: moeller, i like his skating, i like his music (both programs), and i think it's gutsy to skate to a cut so similar to jeremy's--the very year after jeremy skated his stellar program.
  11. Jun Y

    Jun Y Well-Known Member

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    Moeller is hardly the first junior skater to copy Abbott's Muse FS last season. I saw another junior skater at Liberty who also used the same music. Moeller is clearly and intentionally imitating Abbott's movements, down to the entry to his 2A jump and a lot of the arms and expression. Although "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery," I personally find such detailed and vivid imitation slightly disturbing and would rather see younger skaters try on their own styles that are appropriate for their age.
  12. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Spencer Howe (N3) has replaced Lukas Kaugars (J5) at the JGP in Lake Placid (ETA: I've cross-posted this update in the JGP Entries thread in Kiss and Cry). I'm told Kaugars is dealing with an injury (likely the main factor in his subpar performances at Glacier Falls) and I assume he should be able to get a later assignment once he is fully healed.

    Howe's highest competition total score this summer was at L.A. Open in July -- 158.42 (109.67 FS) and he finished 4th in Junior Men at Glacier Falls earlier this month.
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2012
  13. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    I don't understand why the USFS isn't investing in younger skaters with good summer seasons such as Long and Edmund; instead sending older skaters like Cesario and skaters with much poorer summer seasons like Baga or Jiang, just because they placed higher at Nationals, which was like 8 months ago. I know this conversation happens every year, but it's still so :wall:

    IMO, the Senior B circuit would be a good place for skaters like Lam or Cesario, and letting young promising skaters like Long, Miller, Edmunds etccompete in the JGP.
  14. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    The only way I can see skaters like Edmunds in the early JGPs is 1) if USFS decides at some point to put a cap on how many JGP seasons an age-eligible skater can do or 2) USFS somehow manages to lobby ISU into giving senior Bs more weight (like counting seasons best)

    None of that will happen this season of course (but perhaps for the next Olympic cycle?). But if nothing is done, the JGP crowding will get worse and worse each season because the GPs are harder to land and no JGP-eligible skaters want senior Bs . :(

    OF course, USFS can also put all these skaters into one summer comp and let the results determine JGP assignments, but I don't see that happening any time soon either. :(

    On a different topic, Spencer Howe :cheer: (Bummer for Lucas)
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2012
  15. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    they haven't assigned jiang yet. i'm saving my indignation for a fitting occasion :lol:

    ooh... or maybe... just to forestall anger over a) jiang being skipped over for keiser, or b) jiang being assigned ahead of barbie long, USFS will assign barbie long and mariah bell to the next JGP? bell at least beat edmunds in glacier falls Jr ladies final! :p this way they can avoid the ire of the people who might be up in arms over jiang vs. keiser. although the edmunds folks will be at their door with the pitchforks :rofl:
  16. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    The Canadian system, which is being used this year, makes much more sense.
  17. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but Canada also has far fewer skaters to spread the wealth between. I'm ok with how assignments have gone so far. I hope Edmunds gets one eventually because I think her development will really benefit from it, but I'm still of the mindset that she will get one. And so far no one has been assigned who has shown that they are clearly not ready, the way Daniels looked last year going into her JGP (just as an example, not to pick on Daniels specifically. Speaking of which, where has she been this summer? Is she skating?)
  18. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Last I heard, McKinzie Daniels has left Colorado Springs and returned home to Springfield, IL. I don't know what her plans are. She hasn't competed yet this summer, which is likely why Yasmin Siraj, who placed behind Daniels at Nationals and already has competed this summer, is listed as a JGP alternate ahead of Daniels (in response to skfan's question above).
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2012
  19. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    ^ thank you Sylvia. it all makes sense now.

    there's a lot i like about mckinzie daniels' skating, so i would be happy if she continued, but whatever path she chooses, best of luck to her.
  20. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

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    Well since the reserve team has been updated, Leah Keiser, Nina Jiang, Shotaro Omori, Kaitlin Hawayek & Jean-Luc Baker have all been added, so that's 99% your team for JGP Turkey since skaters are only added to the reserve team after getting an international.
  21. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    wow. very impressive deductive powers! ^__^ i never would have expected jiang to get a JGP before barbie long. :cold:

    when it becomes official, it'll prove that jlai is clairvoyant when it comes to USFS! :) jlai said jiang would likely get one because USFS won't upset the apple cart by giving keiser one without giving jiang one.

    now jlai, if i may venture a question, how much will ice network cost us the 2013-14 oly season, and how much coverage can we expect? :p
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2012
  22. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I'm not clairvoyant. I'm a frustrated fan seeing the same thing every year. :wall:

    Long and Edmunds so deserve an early assignment. :blah:

    Icenetwork subscription next season is about $40 if you are not a USFS member and $20 if you are. There's a thread about that http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=84517&page=7. Don't know about Oly season
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2012
  23. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    It's USFS tradition to send jr ladies who ranked 4th and 5th at US nationals to something, so USFS may very well send Long and Bell to the 5th JGP, leaving fewer second assignments for the pool. But that will still leave Edmunds without one.
  24. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Not sure what you mean about "tradition" since I can think of one 5th place finisher not that long ago who didn't get anything.

    At least Barbie Long and Mariah Bell did get to compete at Gardena Spring Trophy in Italy this past April.
    ETA: In retrospect, I wish USFS also could have sent Polina Edmunds - I recall they sent 3 Junior men to Gardena several years ago.
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2012
  25. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    The fact that Jiang has been assigned before Long, Bell, or Edmunds is, IMO, absolute bull****. Nina didn't have ONE good competition this summer, and she also bombed her FS at Nationals. So, we're assigning her to a JGP event based on one good short from January? Absurd. ABSURD. :mad:

    Long and Edmunds, especially, have had incredible summer competition results, both landing 3-3 on several instances, while Jiang struggles to land 3Lz alone.

    Bell has had her rough outings, but she's also had a few good ones. Nina has not.
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Nina at least attempted difficult content at Skate Detroit, but she had lots of falls so it doesn't mean that much. I guess that they are holding off sending Long, Bell, and Edmunds with the theory that they can always be sent next year. Senior ladies (really up to around 15th or 16th at Nationals) have generally been given priority for JGP assignments along with the 1st-3rd place finishers in junior, REGARDLESS of summer competition results. Then after that, summer comps come into consideration. This isn't really a new trend, yes it sucks and you would think after what happened with Lindsay Davis, Lauren Dinh, McKinzie Daniels, etc. and then Vanessa Lam and Gracie Gold winning golds they would reconsider, but they haven't and I guess that's the way the cookie crumbles.
  27. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I guess I didn't phrase it quite right. :eek: In the past, USFS usually went with nationals ranking and in turns of JGP assignments, went down the junior ladies list and stopped usually halfway or more than halfway through the 12-14 junior ladies who competed at nationals (with some exceptions)

    But now with fewer JGP and GP assignments available, who knows who will get an assignment? :(

    ETA: Come to think of it, it's just as likely Long gets one in the 5th JGP along with a girl with a second assignment.
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2012
  28. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    by the time USFS selects for JGP#5, will they have results for both JGP1 & JGP2--or only JGP1 results-- in hand?


    Sylvia, may i ask who was the recent 5th place finisher who didn't get anything? what were the circumstances that year? and will the later JGP's over lap with the dates for US regionals?
  29. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    I don't agree with Baga getting an assigment before Long and Edmunds.

    She was 10th at US Nationals, which isn't a fantastic result and she's a skater doing 3toe/2toe in her SP whilst Long and Edmunds are both capable of landing 3lutz/3toe IIRC.

    And now it looks like Jiang - whose Summer outings have been very disappointing so far - is getting an assigment as well. :rolleyes:
  30. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    One thing I am thinking of is that there are now only 6 spots at the JGPF so maybe only skaters who place 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in their first events will be assigned to a 2nd, as the odds aren't great for someone placing 4th in one event to qualify. In the past, 4th place finishers were usually given a 2nd event, and last season even 5th and 6th place finishers, so this season, if they change that up, more girls could get sent meaning there would be space for Long, Edmunds, and Bell to all get assigned.

    Also is it possible Nina and/or Leah might be getting assigned to a senior B? They do skate as seniors nationally, after all, and the team for Nebelhorn is usually announced around this time.
  31. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    How did Long and Edmunds place at Nationals last season?
  32. johndockley92

    johndockley92 New Member

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    I also disagree with Baga getting any assignment (she hasn't showed much promise in awhile), but I think Nina has earned her first assignment. She's done well in the past and I think would do easily better than Bell. Whether she'd do better than Long or Edmunds is questionable, but her second mark will hold up better internationally than those two.
  33. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    2012 Nationals

    SENIOR
    8 Angela Wang 158.66 16 6
    9 Vanessa Lam 157.62 7 9
    10 Kiri Baga 149.38 14 10
    11 Nina Jiang 146.42 8 12
    12 Leah Keiser 145.55 10 11
    13 McKinzie Daniels 140.42 15 14
    14 Joelle Forte 139.82 17 13
    15 Yasmin Siraj 138.83 11 15

    JUNIOR
    1 Gracie Gold 178.92 1 1
    2 Ashley Cain 155.48 3 2
    3 Hannah Miller 149.68 2 4
    4 Barbie Long 144.57 5 3
    5 Mariah Bell 136.90 6 5
    6 Polina Edmunds 134.06 4 6
  34. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

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    The reduction of senior GP spots has contributed to this squeeze of the second tier American seniors staying on the JGP. In the past, Lam and Cesario would probably have been assigned to the GP. Now there's not room for them (or the political will to put them there: Both have higher SB scores than Gao).

    Can you blame them for not wanting to do senior Bs? Senior Bs aren't the second-best place to compete. Clearly, JGPs are. Competing in a JGP gets one the all-important season best score and a better shot at world standing points since points are given below 5th place. I can't imagine Lam, Cesario, Baga, et. al., wanting to be sent to the third-best place to compete while being eligible for the second tier.

    The federation also wants to reward the skaters who placed the highest at nationals. It's no wonder that the top-tier finishers get the GP, the next-best seniors get JGP and medalists from juniors get JGP. I do think USFS should deviate from strict national results after the top 3 in juniors and top 10 in seniors, but I can agree with them that performing well at the pressure-packed nationals ought to give one priority for the best internationals the next season.

    All the skaters assigned thus far have reached the 130 score that Canada set as their required minimum score.

    For not being as "promising," Baga has beaten Jiang at nationals as a novice, junior, and senior, has better international results, and put up a higher summer score this year than Jiang. I agree that Jiang has lovely basics and components. So does Baga, and on every objective standard, Baga is more deserving of an assignment. Of course, this is neither here nor there since both have been assigned.

    What I wish USFS would do, would be 1) to use summer monitoring to ensure readiness [everyone assigned thus far seems ready] 2) to use summer monitoring to re-rank athletes after the top 10 seniors and top 3 juniors, including those who were injured e.g., Hicks and Cesario and/or didn't qualify, e.g., Gold last year, and 3) to use senior Bs as a C level competition and assign the girls who get squeezed out of the JGP after re-ranking. If it was up to me, this is where I would put Jiang, Siraj, and possibly Bell. As it is, USFS barely assigns any lady to a Senior B, probably because the only athletes they consider are GP ones or ladies who've aged out.
    Sylvia and (deleted member) like this.
  35. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    ITA! A question, however:

    Isn't there a new rule about skaters who have competed at seniors not being able to go back to JGPs or junior worlds? (Or did that rule pass?) If so, I can see age-eligible skaters not wanting senior Bs either if that keeps them from having JGPs further down the road.

    The big federations need to pressure ISU to give incentives for JGPF and junior world medalists (e.g. Yan Han?) to move up, IMHO
  36. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    At least Polina Edmunds has been added as an official JGP alternate at last! :D She and Jordan Moeller are the 2 new listed U.S. alternates.

    JGP #4 (Istanbul, Turkey) entries were published today (ETA: link & full roster are posted in the "JGP Entries" thread in the Kiss and Cry forum) and Team USA consists of:
    Nina Jiang and Leah Keiser; Jason Brown (provisional 2nd assignment) and Shotaro Omori; Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker and Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter (provisional 2nd assignment) in dance.
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2012
  37. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    That score is totally irrelevant for US Ladies, though. There is much more depth in the US.

    Stealing Sylvia's list, those are the highest Summer scores of JGP eligible skaters (I am combining Senior and Junior and I don't know some of the names, some skaters might be too old):

    172.30 Vanessa Lam (Hidden Valley Open) - JGP France
    170.06J Polina Edmunds (Broadmoor Open combined final round scores) - JGP alternate
    168.48 Hannah Miller (Skate Detroit) - JGP Austria
    168.42 Leah Keiser (All Year FSC comp.) - JGP Turkey
    167.36 Angela Wang (Colorado Championships, Jr.) - JGP Lake Placid
    158.23 Samantha Cesario (Liberty) - JGP Austria
    157.93J Barbie Long (Broadmoor Open SP Only & FS qualifying scores added together) - JGP alternate
    146.25 Yasmin Siraj (Cranberry Open) - JGP alternate
    145.10 Ashley Cain (Cannon Texas Open) - JGP France
    144.23 Courtney Hicks (L.A. Open) - JGP Lake Placid
    142.56J Maria Yang (Liberty) - not in ISP
    141.80J Mariah Bell (Glacier Falls) - JGP alternate
    139.24 Kiri Baga (Skate Milwaukee) - JGP Lake Placid
    138.87 Haley Dunne (Liberty) - not in ISP
    134.05J Selena Zhao (Glacier Falls) - not in ISP
    132.83 Nina Jiang (Cannon Texas Open) - JGP Turkey
    131.76 Carly Gold (Skate Milwaukee) - not in ISP

    As you can see Edmunds is second on that list. She would be first if she'd have had the extra element you perform in the Senior routine.

    There's over 38 points between her and Jiang's best scores and 30 between hers and Baga's.
  38. Lara

    Lara Well-Known Member

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    Ouch, I didn't know just how much poorer Jiang had performed this summer. :( :wall:

    Surely Edmunds will get a JGP, I just hope they don't leave her to the end as with Gracie last year.
  39. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Looks like it. :/

    Given there's only 6 spots in the JGPF now, I really hope that USFS does not assign a lady to a second spot unless she medals in her first one.
  40. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

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    Even if they only assign ladies who medal in the first one, 9 ladies have been assigned and there are only 6 spots left. Long and Bell will probably be assigned first, I think her odds of getting one are pretty small.