2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2003
    Messages:
    10,633
    No, the jump out of steps for junior ladies in the sp this year is the 2F OR 3F.

    2F with positive GOE or at least base mark is worth more than a downgraded 3F. So some skaters will be better off planning the double. One jump won't win events on its own . . . although a good 3F along with lots of other good stuff will certainly help.
     
  2. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    8,907
    In Nina's case her jump combo is a triple toe-2t. That with a 2flip isnt going to be that competitive, though she can definitely improve by Aug. That said, with so many good girls, I am not sure about Nina going to jgp at this point though things can change
     
  3. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,268
    Nina is also capable of 3t-3t though, she landed one in her SP at the 2010 JGP Courchevel, and it was listed as a planned element at some of her domestic events last season. So if the 3f isn't going well, she could focus on the 3t-3t instead and that with a 2f could still be pretty competitive. I mean, Anna Shershak won silver at a JGP last season with 3t-3t and 2lz in her SP, and Polina Korobeynikova I don't think ever cleanly landed or rotated her 3lz in the SP last season, and she was 4th and 2nd at her events.

    At least domestically, Nina won't have to do a flip in her SP as she is competing as a senior, and at least at this point her 3lz seems a better jump for her.

    That being said, she did a good job the past 2 seasons getting the required junior SP triple jump mastered over the summer. At 2010 Nationals, she only had 3t and 3s, but then added the 3lo to her arsenal that summer and had success with it all that season, including at her JGP where she landed 3lo cleanly in the SP. Then at Nationals in 2011, she had 3t, 3s, 3lo and was trying 3f which she normally fell on, but we never saw a 3lz, but then last summer she had started attempting and landing 3lz and it was a pretty consistent jump for her by the fall season, enough to put it in her SP even though she didn't have to where she was competing as a senior.

    So, I am somewhat hopeful about Nina getting more consistent with 3f this summer. She does have the jump in her arsenal and has landed it at events before, and it's not that different from a 3lz, most people would probably consider it easier even. But I do agree that with the depth of the eligible ladies, she might wind up out of luck in regards to assignments if she doesn't skate very well, and preferably with a 3f, this summer.
     
  4. burntBREAD

    burntBREAD Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2010
    Messages:
    434
    Why doesn't Jiang do a 3Lz-2T and then a 2F (if she can't get the 3F)?
     
  5. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,268
    That's possible too, but she probably wants to try the 3f for now at least rather than give up on it so quick, she's landed them before, plus any domestic summer competitions she'll be competing in as a senior, so doing a 2f there would result in -3s for GOE b/c it's an illegal element. When and if she is assigned to a JGP, she can consider manipulating her jump layout around.
     
  6. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    31,180
    Entries for JGP #1 in Courchevel, France have been published online (link is posted in the "JGP Entries" thread in the 2012-14 Kiss and Cry forum) and the Team USA selections are: Vanessa LAM (S8 at 2012 Nationals) and Ashley CAIN (J2); Jason BROWN (S9) and Harrison CHOATE (J4); Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER (J3) and Holly MOORE / Daniel KLABER (N1) in dance.

    Alternates are (listed alphabetically):
    Mariah BELL (J5), Samantha CESARIO (S-wd/2 JGP bronzes last season), Nina JIANG (S11), Leah KEISER (S12), Barbie LONG (J4), Hannah MILLER (J3), Yasmin SIRAJ (S15);
    Nathan CHEN (J1), Spencer HOWE (N3), Shotaro OMORI (P-J5/2 JGPs last season), James SCHETELICH (N2), Troy TOMASELLO (J8), Jay YOSTANTO (J7);
    Whitney MILLER / Kyle MACMILLAN (N2), Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS (J4).
     
  7. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    I think these were good and fair selections.

    Although Ashley Cain's inconsistency makes me nervous, she did have a good free skate at Liberty. Wishing her and Vanessa the best in France!
     
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,268
    Surprised that neither Angela Wang nor Josh Farris are listed as alternates while several others with lower scores/placements last season are. Not sure if this means anything but being on the substitute list early usually means you're next in line to be assigned, and you wouldn't think the USFS would want to wait until later in the season to assign either of those two to a JGP as they are two of the strongest skaters in contention to get 2 assignments and qualify for the JGPF imo! Unless they are going to senior Bs instead? Would hope Josh is not going to senior Bs when he had a senior GP entry guaranteed that USFS talked him out of accepting...
     
  9. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    Maybe they have already been assigned to JGP #2. It would make sense for USFS to want their strongest skaters performing at home.
     
  10. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2005
    Messages:
    2,206
    That was my guess too. If that's correct these should be the skaters for JGP USA? Polina Edmunds, Courtney Hicks, Angela Wang, Joshua Farris, Kevin Shum, David Wang, Alexandra Aldridge & Daniel Eaton, Madeline Heritage & Nathaniel Fast, Elliana Pogrebinsky & Ross Gudis.
     
    Sylvia and (deleted member) like this.
  11. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,843
    I think there are many US Junior Ladies coming up that will surpass Vanessa soon. I'd like to see Leah Keiser, Angela Wang or Polina Edmunds get a shot this season on the JGP this season. I'm not sure about Ashley either it was baffling last season when they gave her a second JGP event after her poor showing in the first one. I hope they don't that again this year.
     
  12. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    Have you seen the video of Vanessa at Hidden Valley? She landed seven triples in that performance and she's improved nearly every aspect of her skating. I wouldn't count her out. In fact, I think she will challenge Radionova for gold in France.
     
  13. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2006
    Messages:
    28,460
    I don't know. The calling on her rotations was certainly generous. I think she can certainly medal, though.
     
  14. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,843
    Are her jumps still tiny?
     
  15. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    Yes, they are on the smaller side. But it's the other aspects of her skating, the spins, the steps, the choreography, the interpretation, that have improved.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulOIsKDe-Xo
     
  16. shan

    shan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2003
    Messages:
    17,005
    :cheer: to see McNamara/Carpenter on the JGP! I can't wait to see their programs.
     
  17. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Messages:
    1,078
    Ashley Cain placed 2nd in junior at nationals, pretty impressive!

    What jumps did she attempt/land at Liberty?
     
  18. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Messages:
    1,078
     
  19. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

    Joined:
    May 9, 2002
    Messages:
    11,323
    I hope Sam Cesario gets an assignment or two!
     
  20. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    Some quotes from the IN Liberty article:


    I hope so too! I'm confident she will.
     
  21. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2003
    Messages:
    2,781
    You mean six ;) Vanessa doesn't do the sal.
     
  22. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2002
    Messages:
    1,748
    I think that Kiri Baga (S10) might be in there in Edmunds' place. Since she was 10th at nationals I can't see her not getting a JGP and she wasn't listed as a sub for France, unlike Jiang and Keiser who finished behind her at nationals.

    I really do hope Polina does get a JGP, though, preferably one earlier enough to allow for a possible second assignment.
     
  23. skfan

    skfan Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    404

    that's so clever, deducing who will be at JGP#2 from absence on the sub list for JGP 1! :D

    but let's increase the level of difficulty slightly--without seeing the sub list for JGP#2, who does everyone think will be at JGP #2 and #3? :lol:

    i'm certain cesario and edmunds will get their assignments.

    here are some more 2012 liberty cesario videos from a different angle.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDbuqAJbSPc
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bi-AvwO3ro
     
  24. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    Yes. ;)

    It was so fabulous I thought she did an extra!
     
  25. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2003
    Messages:
    2,781
    It really is a great program that highlights her strengths, most notably spins and speed. I hope she can clean up her jumps and rock the JGP!
     
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,268
    Idk if Kiri is interested in doing JGP again. She may be focusing on pairs, or have opted for senior Bs instead. She's already done 2 seasons of JGP and that was with taking last season off. She might be ready to move on.
     
  27. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    31,180
    I know that Kiri Baga is interested in doing the JGP again (technically she didn't take last season off - she wasn't assigned to the JGP but was listed as an alternate early on).

    ETA: If given a choice, the U.S. skaters and coaches seem to prefer a JGP to a Senior B assignment... probably because they can receive an ISU Season Best score for the former but not the latter.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  28. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    8,907
    I don't see all the girls getting assigned to a JGP.

    The way I see it, it's initially gonna be
    Wang
    Lam
    Baga
    Jiang
    Keiser
    Cain
    Miller
    Long

    I think Jiang will get an initial JGP spot because Keiser deserves to go, and USFSA will probably send Jiang too since she finished ahead of Keiser at nationals.

    Bell, Edmunds, Cesario and Hicks may get assigned later, if there are spots.
    I hope USFSA will be a tad flexible with using nationals as the determining factor and get Edmunds and Cesario into the earlier JGPs. I'm not holding my breath though
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  29. skfan

    skfan Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    404




    why do you think hicks and cesario won't get initial assignments? even if USFS felt constricted by the nationals finish order, hicks and cesario didn't *finish behind* jiang and keiser. they were injured and unable to compete at nationals, but had previously placed well at JGP's. cesario got a liberty write up on icenetwork, hicks got early monitoring (per Sylvia she got monitored early on along with keiser)--i would think all these signs point to them being part of USFS plan A (initial assignments) rather than plan B (only if plan A skaters got injured or finished really low in the rankings).

    just curious to hear your thoughts, because you've been watching USFS and the ISP game a lot longer :)

    i also think it's unlikely that all of the skaters on your initial selection list will dazzle at her first assignment, so there will be room for edmunds, unless USFS already made up their minds that certain skaters will get 2 assignments.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  30. skfan

    skfan Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    404
    oops 2
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012