2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I think there are many US Junior Ladies coming up that will surpass Vanessa soon. I'd like to see Leah Keiser, Angela Wang or Polina Edmunds get a shot this season on the JGP this season. I'm not sure about Ashley either it was baffling last season when they gave her a second JGP event after her poor showing in the first one. I hope they don't that again this year.
  2. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Have you seen the video of Vanessa at Hidden Valley? She landed seven triples in that performance and she's improved nearly every aspect of her skating. I wouldn't count her out. In fact, I think she will challenge Radionova for gold in France.
  3. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    I don't know. The calling on her rotations was certainly generous. I think she can certainly medal, though.
  4. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Are her jumps still tiny?
  5. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Yes, they are on the smaller side. But it's the other aspects of her skating, the spins, the steps, the choreography, the interpretation, that have improved.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulOIsKDe-Xo
  6. shan

    shan Well-Known Member

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    :cheer: to see McNamara/Carpenter on the JGP! I can't wait to see their programs.
  7. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Ashley Cain placed 2nd in junior at nationals, pretty impressive!

    What jumps did she attempt/land at Liberty?
  8. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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  9. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I hope Sam Cesario gets an assignment or two!
  10. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Some quotes from the IN Liberty article:


    I hope so too! I'm confident she will.
  11. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

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    You mean six ;) Vanessa doesn't do the sal.
  12. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    I think that Kiri Baga (S10) might be in there in Edmunds' place. Since she was 10th at nationals I can't see her not getting a JGP and she wasn't listed as a sub for France, unlike Jiang and Keiser who finished behind her at nationals.

    I really do hope Polina does get a JGP, though, preferably one earlier enough to allow for a possible second assignment.
  13. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    that's so clever, deducing who will be at JGP#2 from absence on the sub list for JGP 1! :D

    but let's increase the level of difficulty slightly--without seeing the sub list for JGP#2, who does everyone think will be at JGP #2 and #3? :lol:

    i'm certain cesario and edmunds will get their assignments.

    here are some more 2012 liberty cesario videos from a different angle.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDbuqAJbSPc
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bi-AvwO3ro
  14. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Yes. ;)

    It was so fabulous I thought she did an extra!
  15. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

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    It really is a great program that highlights her strengths, most notably spins and speed. I hope she can clean up her jumps and rock the JGP!
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Idk if Kiri is interested in doing JGP again. She may be focusing on pairs, or have opted for senior Bs instead. She's already done 2 seasons of JGP and that was with taking last season off. She might be ready to move on.
  17. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    I know that Kiri Baga is interested in doing the JGP again (technically she didn't take last season off - she wasn't assigned to the JGP but was listed as an alternate early on).

    ETA: If given a choice, the U.S. skaters and coaches seem to prefer a JGP to a Senior B assignment... probably because they can receive an ISU Season Best score for the former but not the latter.
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  18. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I don't see all the girls getting assigned to a JGP.

    The way I see it, it's initially gonna be
    Wang
    Lam
    Baga
    Jiang
    Keiser
    Cain
    Miller
    Long

    I think Jiang will get an initial JGP spot because Keiser deserves to go, and USFSA will probably send Jiang too since she finished ahead of Keiser at nationals.

    Bell, Edmunds, Cesario and Hicks may get assigned later, if there are spots.
    I hope USFSA will be a tad flexible with using nationals as the determining factor and get Edmunds and Cesario into the earlier JGPs. I'm not holding my breath though
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  19. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    why do you think hicks and cesario won't get initial assignments? even if USFS felt constricted by the nationals finish order, hicks and cesario didn't *finish behind* jiang and keiser. they were injured and unable to compete at nationals, but had previously placed well at JGP's. cesario got a liberty write up on icenetwork, hicks got early monitoring (per Sylvia she got monitored early on along with keiser)--i would think all these signs point to them being part of USFS plan A (initial assignments) rather than plan B (only if plan A skaters got injured or finished really low in the rankings).

    just curious to hear your thoughts, because you've been watching USFS and the ISP game a lot longer :)

    i also think it's unlikely that all of the skaters on your initial selection list will dazzle at her first assignment, so there will be room for edmunds, unless USFS already made up their minds that certain skaters will get 2 assignments.
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  20. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    oops 2
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  21. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    The USFS might have to be tactical in regards to the men's assignments, Brown, Farris, and Chen all theoretically have good shots at qualifying for the JGPF, whereas I think the stars would need to allign for most of the other men (Yostanto, Choate, Kaugers, Wang, etc.) to qualify, so ideally, USFS probably wants to avoid having those 3 (Brown, Farris, Chen) compete against Han Yan before the JGPF, of course, one of them will have to compete against Yan at least once assuming all 3 are each assigned 2 events, but what would really be undesirable is having any one of those guys compete at the same 2 events as Yan, especially where there are now only 6 spots in the final and 2 silvers could potentially not be enough to qualify.

    Of course, there are other strong men, Keiji Tanaka most notably but also his teammates Hino (strong tech) and Uno (does he have 3a now?), as well as the likes of Kovtun, Nyugen, etc. Maybe they aren't thinking about it but I think it would be pretty risky to send any guy to the same 2 events as Yan unless USFS is sure he won't qualify for the JGPF, which would be unlikely, as to get a 2nd assignment, a good placement at his 1st would probably be needed...
  22. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Because there're only 8 initial spots (2 assignments per JGP plus host pick at Lake Placid--there're 15 spots, so 8 initial spots). 12 girls deserve a spot on paper, and with a handful of exceptions, most monitored fairly well to very well this summer. Who would you leave out? :(

    ETA: COme to think of it, I don't remember if Baga did a summer event, and if so how she did.
    I prefer Cesario and Edmunds having a shot at the earlier JGPs, though the way things go, I can see how some girls who are ready for senior events are doing jgp again.

    ETA: WHile I'm at it, I don't remember Troy Tomasello or Kevin Shum having done a summer event either.
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  23. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    I know Cain did well at nationals, but i dont believe she has the technical ability to match the other US Junior Ladies. Sure if she manages to skate to clean programs then she is still going to do well, but i dont see her making the final. Whereas most others all have the potential to make the final if they skate clean programs
  24. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    If Ashley skates all out with clean programs I not only see her making the final but probably winning her events, too. If she ever landed all of her triples in addition to her spins and artistry she would definitely be tough to beat on the junior level. Her problem is and always has been consistency.
  25. Impromptu

    Impromptu Well-Known Member

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    She did do one - Skate Milwaukee (?). I think she finished second to Gracie Gold in the SP (and ahead of both Helegesson sisters), and won the FP (Gold only competed in the SP). Ah, found the posting. Yes second in the SP, 49.75; first in FS 90.07.
  26. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Kiri Baga won the Senior Ladies event at Skate Milwaukee in mid-July. Official results have not been published online -- the scores I received were 49.17 (SP), 90.07 (FS) = 139.24 (ETA: this score would be #10 among U.S. Senior ladies, if verified), but I never heard any confirmed jump details for her. Baga, Nina Jiang, and Hannah Miller are scheduled to compete in Senior Ladies at Skate Detroit this week, along with Troy Tomasello (8th in Jr. at Nationals) in Junior Men.

    There are several JGP-eligible pairs competing in the Junior Pairs event at Skate Detroit -- results for the SP are posted in the event thread in Kiss and Cry: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=3629453#post3629453
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  27. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    you make very good points.

    i want to say if USFS can pass over mariah bell to annoint edmunds (did you see the vaca valley results Jenna linked to?), then they can skip over jiang to send keiser if they think keiser is all that. but jiang may yet land perfect 3f's with +2 GOE at skate detroit, so my argument might have a few more holes in it by the weekend. i hope jiang does well, in fact... :)

    there may be only 8 initial assignments, but i wouldn't expect all 8 to skate well + score well. i would only expect big scores for cain (kira korpi PCS beauty bonus) and lam (last year's JGP finalist), maybe hicks and cesario.

    i wouldn't fret over edmunds just yet. i think edmunds is guaranteed 1 and will very likely get 2. she also only landed 2 triples (very unexpected) at vaca valley, so... our impressions of prospective JGP participants may fluctuate wildly through JGP season. imagine the fun if karen chen were also eligible... ^^

    if you want me to pretend i'm USFS (LOL... as if i could come close to understanding their mindset)

    cain
    lam
    hicks
    cesario
    wang
    keiser
    2 of these 3: baga, miller, edmunds. probably baga and miller.

    probably enough of the initial group will falter that edmunds, long, and miller all stand a good shot at getting 2, even if they weren't among the 'initial 8.' unless USFS already decided certain skaters are guaranteed 2, in which case it hardly matters who's among the 'initial 8'. USFS should just select all the JGP's at once like for senior GP's... and announce it so we can debate the wisdom of their projections even earlier :)

    who are the 12 deserving ladies on your list? ^__^
  28. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Edmunds was fantastic at Broadmoor Open, I tend to think if she skates that well or nearly that well again at Glacier Falls she will certainly be assigned to a JGP, and hopefully an earlier one so that she has time to be assigned a 2nd should she do well. If Glacier Falls doesn't go so well she could still be assigned (I mean her 170+ at BMO alone should be enough to get her assignment as it speaks to her scoring potential), but it would probably be later on and dependent on how others do at their first events and how many of them get a 2nd.

    Lam was hot and cold last season, and her PCS aren't super internationally, so I'm not sure she's a shoo-in for the final, likely she will get 2 assignments, but we'll have to see, she was only 13th at JW after all and had that meltdown in the FS at the JGPF, which she was lucky to qualify for anyways as she won her gold by like a tenth of a point.

    Cain should do well if she skates well, and same goes for Jiang, and Siraj too, the thing with those three is that their jumps are often hit or miss. PCS internationally in the past have always been strong and good performances rewarded.

    Bell skated well in Vail but not very well at Broadmoor Open, so I think if she skates well at her final summer comp (Glacier Falls? Skate Detroit?) that would help her get a JGP earlier, and if she doesn't skate well there, USFS might hold off and wait to see how the other girls do before sending her, and if it works out that a lot of girls aren't getting 2nd events she could still be assigned later.

    As long as Keiser does reasonably well at Glacier Falls I think she will be assigned, and early on too.

    Anyways the 12 girls that deserve JGPs the poster mentioned are probably:

    Ashley Cain
    Hannah Miller
    Barbie Long
    Mariah Bell
    Polina Edmunds
    Vanessa Lam
    Angela Wang
    Kiri Baga
    Nina Jiang
    Leah Keiser
    Yasmin Siraj
    Samantha Cesario
    Courtney Hicks

    That's actually 13..

    As for who gets assigned when, I think we'll have to wait and see more summer results to get a better idea.
  29. Rochelle

    Rochelle Active Member

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    Have we heard any more rumblings about the pairs? With Detroit, Liberty, Broadmoor, LA Open, etc. underway... and Indy Challenge next weekend (Aug. 3-5th), I'd imagine we'd start to hear about some plans for the pairs.

    Looks like these five teams have all hit past 120, via Sylvia's Score Tracker (http://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/scoretracker/2012-2013-pairs-scores/) and the Liberty & Skate Detroit results:
    *Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier J1/JW4
    *Britney Simpson & Matthew Blackmer JGPF3/J2/JW10
    *Jessica Noelle Calalang & Zack Sidhu JGPF-wd/J4
    Jessica Pfund & AJ Reiss J5
    *Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage J6

    Thus I'd imagine those teams are all going to be assigned to Jr. Grand Prix events.

    And then all five of these pairs seem to be scoring in about the same range at Liberty and Detroit:
    Brianna de la Mora & Taylor Wilson J8
    *Olivia Oltmanns & Joshua Santillan J9
    Audrey Goldberg & Joseph Dolkiewicz J10
    Christina Zaitsev & Ernie Stevens N4
    (Possible Belt/Johnson addition, if added to ISP)?)

    Any news?
  30. UDelpairs2012

    UDelpairs2012 New Member

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    I would imagine that more news would be available regarding the teams selected to compete on the JGP after Indy challenge this coming up week. However, I imagine that you are correct that the 5 teams who have hit past 120 points would be the 5 to get the initial assignments.
  31. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    They're not listed on the ISP page (yet), but I believe Caitlin Belt/Michael Johnson are in the ISP now. :)

    Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier mention their assignment to the Lake Placid JGP in a Skate Detroit article -- I've cross-posted the link in this post in the U.S. Pairs thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=3635834#post3635834
  32. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Posted today in the U.S. Team Envelopes/ISP thread in GSD:
  33. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Entries for JGP #2 in Lake Placid, NY have been published online (link is posted in the "JGP Entries" thread in the 2012-14 Kiss and Cry forum) and the Team USA selections are:

    Angela WANG (S8 at 2012 Nationals), Kiri BAGA (S10), Courtney HICKS (gold at 2011 JGP AUS);
    Joshua FARRIS (S16/JW2), Lukas KAUGARS (J5), James SCHETELICH (N2);
    Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER (J1/JW4), Jessica PFUND / AJ REISS (J5), Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGE (J6), Olivia OLTMANNS / Joshua SANTILLAN (J9);
    Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON (J1/JW3), Madeline HERITAGE / Nathaniel FAST (J5), Elliana POGREBINSKY / Ross GUDIS (J8).

    Alternates are (listed alphabetically):
    Mariah BELL (J5), Ashley CAIN (J2; JGP FRA), Samantha CESARIO (S-wd/2 JGP bronzes last season), Nina JIANG (S11), Leah KEISER (S12), Vanessa LAM (S9; JGP FRA), Barbie LONG (J4), Hannah MILLER (J3), Yasmin SIRAJ (S15);
    Jason BROWN (S9; JGP FRA), Nathan CHEN (J1), Harrison CHOATE (J4; JGP FRA), Spencer HOWE (N3), Shotaro OMORI (P-J5/2 JGPs last season), Troy TOMASELLO (J8), Jay YOSTANTO (J7);
    Caitlin BELT / Michael JOHNSON (YOG4), Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU (J4), Brianna DE LA MORA / Taylor WILSON (J8), Audrey GOLDBERG / Joseph DOLKIEWICZ (J10), Britney SIMPSON / Matthew BLACKMER (J2), Christina ZAITSEV / Ernie Utah STEVENS (N4);
    Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER (J3; JGP FRA), Whitney MILLER / Kyle MACMILLAN (N2), Holly MOORE / Daniel KLABER (N1; JGP FRA), Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS (J4; YOG4), Hannah ROSINSKI / Jacob JAFFE (N3).
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2012
  34. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

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    I love that USFS used four spots in pairs! :respec:
  35. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Keeping fingers crossed for Hannah Miller and Leah Keiser!!
  36. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

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    I was close last time, I'm guessing based on these assignments we will see the following in JGP Austria. Jessica Calalang/Zack Sidhu, Brianna De La Mora/Taylor Wilson, Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer, Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser, Rachel Parsons/Michael Parsons, Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker, Nathan Chen, Jay Yostanto.
  37. crankyintheAM

    crankyintheAM New Member

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    Thank you for the info, Sylvia!

    I was sure I'd read somewhere that D/F would go Sr this season :confused: Now I wonder what pair I'm confusing them with :shuffle:

    I hope Simpson/Blackmer get the next event.
  38. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    Can they really use FOUR spots for Pairs?? Can someone please knowledgeable about the rules confirm this, or I'll cry another "chinese extra spot" scandal in the making :D
  39. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Denney/Frazier are planning to compete Senior in the US this season - they just competed Senior at Skate Detroit (3rd in SP, 2nd in FS): http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=3635834#post3635834

    From the 2012-13 JGP General Announcement:
    "For the Organizing Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pairs’ event."
  40. crankyintheAM

    crankyintheAM New Member

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    Ah! That's where my confusion came from then. Thank you! :)