2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    USFS originally posted their JGP Croatia entries (quoted above) on Sept. 18, then removed them and put them back online today: http://usfigureskating.org/Athletes.asp?id=216
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2012
  2. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Hurry up and confirm Cesario's second assignment already :drama:
     
  3. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    If you want to take just my word for it, Marco, Cesario is confirmed for Germany. :)
     
  4. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    :cheer:

    In that case I am happy to cheer for Barbie Long tonight :p
     
  5. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I guess they'll give one of the last spots to Omori. Which leaves one left, right? I vote for Jordan Moeller as I'm all for spreading the wealth
     
  6. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

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    Omori and Jay Yostanto are the two that are on the newest ISU update so that's likely the team.
     
  7. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    That's what I've heard unofficially.

    Samantha Cesario tweeted yesterday that she is "leaving for Germany one week from tomorrow" so I think that's official confirmation. ;)
     
  8. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I cannot help but feel that had Cesario chosen senior intl, she would have gotten a gp instead
    :( Same for Lam.
     
  9. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Not sure about that. To many girls ahead of her. Mirai only has one which shows how many girls are fighting for slots. She needs to stay healthy for Nationals if she wants a GP event next year. As for Lam i doubt very much she would have got one. She struggled at the end of last season and hasn't looked good this season.
     
  10. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    Lam and Cesario were #26 and #28 in last season's ISU Season Best total scores list:
    26 156.58 Vanessa LAM USA ISU JGP Austria 2011 30.09.2011
    28 153.84 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Baltic Cup 2011 16.09.2011

    Lam skated very well and showed many improvements, IMO, at the Hidden Valley Open club competition in July, and had she skated like that at her JGP in Courchevel, I think she could have won a silver or bronze medal.

    Cesario has guaranteed herself team envelope funding for next season with her JGP bronze medal in Austria and set a good SB total score in the process, so she already has benefited by staying on the JGP.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2012
  11. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I doubt USFS would have given the SA host spots to one of them over Gao and Flatt, and they didn't have a guarantee otherwise because for both, their SB was just outside the top 25 and their WS was well out of it, so with the reduced slots, it's unlikely either would have ended up with an assignment. Plus maybe USFS didn't want them to move up so as to increase the chances of the other girls (Agnes, Gracie, etc) getting 2 assignments and to keep the possibility of sending them to JW open. It appears that they convinced Farris, and possibly Brown too, to stay on the JGP another season for these reasons, and those two both had a senior GP event guaranteed and maybe could have even gotten 2 if their names had been submitted, so there's no saying USFS didn't play into the decision at some level.
     
  12. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I just feel bummed for both girls because the trend for the last few seasons is that the top JGP girls have to do technically harder jumps than seniors; also, pcs is lower, and there's one fewer element to garner tes, and so JGP ladies are at a disadvantage when it comes to Seasons' best and stuff, and that in turn makes it harder for these girls to get a gp.
     
  13. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Well based on how Vanessa skated at her JGP this season and JW last season, she likely would have rounded out the bottom of a GP field instead of placing a respectable 4th and 13th, so it may be better for her confidence anyways. Someone scoring 138-140 points in an international competition is not really deserving of a GP anyhow, and that's what Lam scored at her last 2 internationals, in fact she only scored above 150 once all last season. Mirai with a SB of 173 only managed one assignment and the depth in the US ladies is really high right now so really I'm okay with Lam being on the JGP again and getting only one assignment. As for Cesario, I just hope she stays healthy and can compete at Nationals this season, that's really the reason why she's done JGP the past two seasons.
     
  14. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    Team USA for the final JGP in Chemnitz, Germany was officially confirmed on the USFS site yesterday: Cesario, Keiser; Omori, Yostanto (all 4 have a bye through their respective Regionals now); Simpson/Blackmer, Pfund/Reiss (2 pairs); Hawayek/Baker (1 dance team).
     
  15. johndockley92

    johndockley92 New Member

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    Interesting that they chose not to use all available slots in pairs and dance - passing over Goldberg/Dolk again and not giving De La Mora/Wilson a shot to redeem themselves after a poor short program at their last outing (Neither team has acquired a minimum TES).

    Also would've way rather seen Jordan and Spencer get a shot than sending out Omori/Yostanto - though they both have a shot at a medal, neither skater has a shot at the final so sending them doesn't have much value because they already have a minimum score.
     
  16. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Angela Wang won the short in Croatia!! Hannah Miller in third!! Angela landed triple lutz-triple toe.
     
  17. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Angela could surprise at Nationals. She could with a bit of luck finish in the top six which would give her a chance to make it to Sochi if the US gets three spots at Worlds.
     
  18. Mrs. P

    Mrs. P Active Member

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    Congrats to Angela Wang and Hannah Miller for their gold and silver at Croatia. This pretty much seals the deal for them as far as JGPF:

    Elena Radionova - 30
    Angela Wang - 26 (she wins the overall score tie breaker)
    Satoko Miyahara - 26 (she beats Hannah with her first place in Lake Placid)
    Hannah Miller -26 (two silvers)
    Hae Jin Kim - 22 (wins tiebreaker with Courtney with first place in Slovakia)
    Courtney Hicks - 22

    Leah Keiser is as good as in if she gets a medal. Samantha Cesario will have to finish in the top two to make it to JGPF and if she's second, she's has to hope that Leah will be the one who wins. In that scenario:

    Elena Radionova -30 (1st+1st)
    Leah Keiser -30 (1st+ 1st)
    Angela Wang -30 (1st +3rd)
    Satoko Miyahara - 26 (1st + 3rd)
    Hannah Miller -26 (2nd+2nd)
    Samantha Cesario - 24 (2nd + 3rd)
    --
    Hae Jin Kim - 22 (1st + 5th)
    Courtney Hicks - 22 (2nd+4th)


    ** If Samantha gets another bronze, she would actually be behind Hae Jin and Courtney because of their 1st and 2nd place, respectively.

    ** Another X factor is Anna Pogorilaya of Russia, who won bronze in Croatia. She will be fighting for a JGPF spot with Samantha and Leah. If Samantha is second, but Anna wins, then Samantha will be out because both Anna and Leah would beat her for the spots with 26 (1st and 3rd).
    Elena Radionova -30 (1st+1st)
    Angela Wang -30 (1st +3rd)
    Satoko Miyahara - 26 (1st + 3rd)
    Hannah Miller -26 (2nd+2nd)
    Anna Pogorilaya -26 (1st+3rd)
    Leah Keiser -26 (1st+ 3rd)
    ----
    Samantha Cesario 24 ( 2nd + 3rd)


    ** Miyabi Oba of Japan, who was 4th in Turkey could also be a spoiler if she wins (though that's unlikely, me thinks). With a win she would have 24 points. If Samantha is second, she would again be out because Miyabi would win the tiebreaker (9+ 15 for Miyabi vs 11+13 for Samantha). Leah would likely take the last spot with a medal of any color and even sneak in with a fourth place finish even if Anna Pogorilaya beats her for silver or bronze because she would win a tiebreak with her 1st place win. In that scenario here's the point breakdown

    Elena Radionova -30 (1st+1st)
    Angela Wang -30 (1st +3rd)
    Satoko Miyahara - 26 (1st + 3rd)
    Hannah Miller -26 (2nd+2nd)
    Leah Keiser -24 (1st+ 4th)
    Miyabi Oba -24 (1st + 4th)
    ---
    Samantha Cesario 24 ( 2nd + 3rd loses tiebreaker with silver) or 22 (if she gets bronze)
    Anna Pogorilaya -24 (2nd + 3rd loses tiebreaker with silver) or 22 if she gets bronze


    It would be awesome if we had 4 U.S. Ladies in the JGPF, especially with the tighter JGPF field.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2012
  19. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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  20. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    It seems it was obvious to everyone but USFS that Jiang, Baga and Cain didn't really have a chance to medal. :p

    I mean I can somehow understand Cain getting a spot given she was Junior silver medallist but the other two... My imagination could maybe stretch to Baga being deserving enough but given Jiang's summer outings... WTF!

    Long could have made the final. :(
     
  21. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I think, well, sending Jiang made sending Keiser less controversial, and while after this summer Jiang didn't deserve an event, last season she and Leah probably both deserved an event but neither got one because they foolishly sent Dinh and Daniels out after having terrible summer competition results, and Kulgeyko who was coming off an injury and is pretty inconsistent to begin with, and gave Ashley cain a second assignment after she placed 6th at her first. So I think Jiang's assignment was more a reward for her skating well last season (at sectionals, nationals, and over the summer - 2011 summer that is), but really her assignment came a season too late. As for Cain, maybe they were hoping her Nationals performance was indicative of how she'd usually skate? I sort of feel like she had the SOHL in the FS at Nationals last season and that coupled with most of the other contenders being slightly off (Miller, Long, Bell, Edmunds) allowed her to come in 2nd, and that under normal circumstances, she wouldn't place or score that high. Year after year they do this, send out girls who haven't been skating well during the summer because they placed well at Nationals or skated well the prior season, then either not get a chance to assign girls who really deserve to go, or send them to one of the last events, only to have them medal but not have time to get a 2nd assignment and a shot to qualify for the JGPF.

    That being said, USFS only reassigned girls who medaled at their first event which I think is fair. Cain and Lam deserved their initial assignments but their placements/scores didn't warrant a 2nd assignment but neither got one so I don't have issues with that. All the girls who got 2nd assignments medaled at their first events, so I think that is fine. Kiri and Nina, I agree, this season probably didn't deserve a JGP, and had they not been sent Barbie could have gotten a 2nd event and someone like Edmunds or Bell could have gotten a 1st which I would have liked to see. But more likely even if Kiri and Nina hadn't been given assignments we probably wouldn't see Bell or Edmunds get an event because it seems like USFS didn't want to pick between them, and Barbie might not even have gotten a 2nd due to how late she was assigned to her 1st, meaning the last two spots would have likely been given to Lam and Cain, who I don't think were really any more deserving of 2nd assignments than Baga and Jiang were initial assignments.
     
  22. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I don't agree with many of USFS assignments, but I think their assignments for JGP ladies this season are quire reasonable (with fewest questionable picks), and there were some improvements re: second JGPs. I wish a couple of girls did senior Bs instead to free up slots for Bell and Edmunds, but I don't know if there's a way in the short term for USFS to do anything about that.

    Now, Skate America host picks for ladies, I wish they'd wait until end of summer to decide. (And I wish they'd spread the senior Bs around a bit more)
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2012
  23. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Kiri was 10th in senior at Nationals in 2012, and had good results this summer. I think she deserved her assignment. She actually skated pretty well in a tough field at Lake Placid.
     
  24. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    And scored pretty well too. She had a respectable showing, she deserved her spot.
     
  25. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Better results this summer than Edmunds and Long?
     
  26. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Lam had great showing in the summer but hardly did better than Cain and Baga in JGP. Had USFS skipped a skater for someone else and that person did poorly, USFS would have never heard the end of it.

    I often disagree with USFS assignments, but unless tptb designates one summer event where talented girls can compete for remaining spots, I don't see how USFS can politically skip over Kiri, who has had respectable results over the summer. (Having seen her nationals short program last year where she did one foot footwork that covered a great length of ice, I think Kiri has the skating skills for senior assignments. Jumps need work though)
     
  27. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    While Edmunds put up some impressive numbers early on, she was only credited with 1 clean triple jump in her FS at the Salt Lake City Challenge Skate, amassing a sub-90 score.

    Barbie Long, with a 3Lz+3T in both programs, only outscored Kiri on the JGP by 4.97 points (Barbie = 147.19 in Bled; Kiri = 142.22 in Lake Placid).
     
  28. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Baga and Cain I can understand. But Jiang getting an assignment was a disgrace, given she has skated badly all Summer.
     
  29. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Kiri actually scored higher than Ashley AND Vanessa in her JGP. Lam may have placed 4th to Kiri's 5th, but in terms of total score Kiri's was around 2 points higher. Provides some perspective. Anyways, Lam was good in Silicone Valley but she had trouble with her SP at Glacier Falls and then I thought her score was far too high in the FS for the mistakes she made. She was only attempting 6 triples to begin with, and given that her jumps are so small and she flutzes, with the 2-3 jump errors she made in that program, her score of around 107 seemed far too high. Internationally, Lam's PCS aren't great (usually high 5s to low 6s) but domestically her PCS are always a lot higher, which partially explains why she doesn't place so well internationally despite so many people expecting her to.
     
  30. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Looks like Leah suffered from nerves a bit today.

    So does this mean that the JGPF qualifiers are (in order of points): 1. Radionova
    2. Anna Pogorilaya
    3. Angela Wang
    4. Satoko Miyahara
    5. Hannah Miller
    6. Leah Keiser

    Alternates:
    1. Hae Jin Kim
    2. Courtney Hicks
    3. Miyabi Oba