2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Since there is usually lively discussion on this particular topic every year ;) here's our annual thread... It is my hope that people will be civil and constructive in their opinions here.

    Here are all the JGP age-eligible skaters/teams currently listed in USFS' International Selection Pool (I've omitted those who previously have competed, or already have been assigned to, the 2012-13 Senior Grand Prix):

    * denotes previous JGP experience; placements at JGP Final, 2012 US Nationals (Sr/Jr/Nov) & Junior Worlds included

    LADIES (17)
    *Angela Wang S8 (4th in her 2010 JGP debut in Japan)
    *Vanessa Lam JGPF5/S9/JW13 (gold & bronze in 2011 JGP)
    *Kiri Baga S10 (did not compete on JGP last season)
    *Nina Jiang S11 (5th in her 2010 JGP debut in France)
    Leah Keiser S12
    *McKinzie Daniels S13 (10th in her 2011 JGP debut in Romania)
    *Yasmin Siraj S15 (5th in 2011 JGP in Latvia)
    *Samantha Cesario S-WD (2 bronzes in 2011 JGP)
    *Courtney Hicks S-WD (gold in her 2011 JGP debut in Australia)
    *Ashley Cain J2 (6th & 5th in 2011 JGP)
    *Hannah Miller J3 (bronze in her 2011 JGP debut in Italy)
    Barbie Long J4
    Mariah Bell J5
    Polina Edmunds J6
    Gwendolyn Prescott J7
    Jenelle Herman J8
    *Katarina Kulgeyko J9 (5th in her 2011 JGP debut in Austria)

    MEN (12)
    *Joshua Farris JGPF3/S16/JW2
    *Jason Brown JGPF1/S9/JW3
    Nathan Chen J1
    *Harrison Choate J4 (6th in his 2011 JGP debut in Romania)
    Lukas Kaugars J5
    *Jay Yostanto J7 (5th in his 2011 JGP debut in Italy)
    Troy Tomasello J8
    *David Wang J11 (5th in his 2011 JGP debut in Poland)
    James Schetelich N2
    Spencer Howe N3
    Kevin Shum N4
    *Shotaro Omori Pacific Sectional J5 (4th & 5th in his 2011 JGP debut season)

    PAIRS (9)
    *Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier J1/JW4
    *Britney Simpson & Matthew Blackmer JGPF3/J2/JW10
    *Jessica Noelle Calalang & Zack Sidhu JGPF-wd/J4
    Jessica Pfund & AJ Reiss J5
    *Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage J6
    Brianna de la Mora & Taylor Wilson J8
    *Olivia Oltmanns & Joshua Santillan J9
    Audrey Goldberg & Joseph Dolkiewicz J10
    Christina Zaitsev & Ernie Stevens N4

    ICE DANCING (8)
    *Alexandra Aldridge & Daniel Eaton JGPF4/J1/JW3
    Lorraine McNamara & Quinn Carpenter J3
    *Rachel Parsons & Michael Parsons YOG4/J4
    *Madeline Heritage & Nathaniel Fast J5
    Elliana Pogrebinsky & Ross Gudis J8
    Holly Moore & Daniel Klaber N1
    Whitney Miller & Kyle MacMillan N2
    Hannah Rosinski & Jacob Jaffe N3

    On paper the U.S. has 15 JGP slots for men, ladies, and dance teams and 12 for pairs (U.S. has 3 entries in each discipline for the Lake Placid JGP).
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2012
  2. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

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    They have an unlimited number of slots for pairs for JGP Lake Placid. Hopefully they send a few extra since it shouldn't cost as much as sending them abroad.
     
  3. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    I just knew you were going to bring that detail up! ;) The U.S. assigned 4 pairs to the 2007 JGP in Lake Placid but one team ended up withdrawing 2 weeks before the comp. and was not replaced. 3 U.S. pairs competed at the JGP in Lake Placid in 2009.

    Caitlin Belt/Michael Johnson (4th in their international debut at the 2012 Winter Youth Olympic Games) are ISU Junior age-eligible in 2012-13 and could be added to the ISP if they monitor well this summer, along with any other new age-eligible pair or dance teams.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2012
  4. vexlak

    vexlak Member

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    I think the US is getting 3 ladies spots for the Lake Placid JGP. Any predictions who may be there to defend home territory?
     
  5. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I hope youngsters like Keiser. Jiang or Wang get at least one assignment this season. Time to invest in the future.
     
  6. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I think it's likely all 3 get assignments. Wang will likely regardless of summer competition results, and as long and Leah and Nina skate reasonably well and attempt triple flips, I think they will likely be assigned as well. I'm really hoping Polina Edmunds finally gets assigned after being a substitute last season, she is really exciting with her 3-3s and fast, really flexible spins! Plus she has a very developed personality on the ice for being just barely 14.

    Also excited for Nathan Chen! Wonder if he will be winning medals right away?
     
  7. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    I'll be interested to see what they do with the men at Lake Placid.

    I mean, in this situation, you would want to show off your strongest skaters on home soil, which would mean giving both Farris and Brown Lake Placid. But in reality, the USFSA probably doesn't want these two to come up against each other prior to JGPF. I suppose theoretically it also means that one has to take GP points from the other and put the other at risk of not qualifying, although I can't imagine that neither would qualify.

    If they just give it to one of them, whoever gets LP would be at a political advantage.

    Or maybe they could give them both Lake Placid as a third, non point-scoring JGP? Is that allowed on JGP?
     
  8. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Good to see that every girl that should be in the ISP is already in it, even before summer comps start. (But then this year no surprises at sectionals that caused some "favorites" to miss nationals, which made the initial ISP list a little easier to compile.) :) I remember last year, skaters like Keiser were added during summer (going by memory here). That can still happen, but I think this list is already a good one.

    With GPs harder to get, more girls are going to stay junior, and I really hate for JGP to be, for lack of better words, an alternate to Senior Bs. :(

    With JGPs being now more saturated than ever, I hope USFSA will spread out the assignments as much as possible.

    I also think some girls in the list are ready for senior assignments. Hopefully there're some senior Bs for them.

    If all those girls are competing for a jgp, I really don't know how USFS should decide. I mean how do you choose between Long (4th at jr ladies) and say, Keiser or Daniels?

    RE: jr men. I would love for Howe and Shum to end up with a JGP. They still have a chance though not as good a chance as I thought (I thought Farris would go senior)
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2012
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    My guess is Farris and Chen will go to Lake Placid. Farris because he is the reigning JW silver medalist and has the big tricks, Chen because he is the US junior champ and the one to watch for the future and I don't expect he will be in the mix for JGP golds just yet, unless he is trying the 3a by then. More likely I think he will fair like Shoma Uno and Nam Nyugen last season, in the mix for medals, but making JGPF may be a stretch, so sending to him the same event as Farris would likely not be a huge liability. But then again, USFS seems to prefer Brown to Farris so maybe Brown and Chen would go instead...

    They won't want to send Farris and Brown to the same event, and likely they may even flip flop assignments around a bit to avoid having those two compete against Han Yan twice, or even once, before the JGPF, as it could hurt their chances to qualify. I guess if Chen were to win his first event though, they might not want he and Farris/Brown at the same event either, and someone like Choate could be given the spot, as unless he has a 3a in his programs by then, I don't think he has great odds on qualifying for the JGPF.

    Competition for the JGPF for the men will be stiff with Yan, Farris, Brown, Tanaka, Hino, Uno, Kihara, Zhang, Kovtun, and Nyugen all staying on the JGP again, and that's before you throw in new faces like Chen!
     
  10. winterone

    winterone Banned Member

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    What is the average spectator attendence at a JGP event anywhere? The few I attended have very few people watching the event.
     
  11. UDelpairs2012

    UDelpairs2012 New Member

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    I love Nina Jiang she is so much potential
     
  12. AnnMJensen

    AnnMJensen New Member

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  13. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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  14. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    When will they post the JGP assignments? I find it strange that the senior events were posted so early even though the series doesn't start until October...doesn't the JGP start in August?
     
  15. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    How the JGP assignments are made and announced are up to each federation (unlike GP assignment selection). In recent years, USFS hasn't been posting their entries on their International Assignments page until after the JGP rosters are published by the ISU.

    From the 2012-13 JGP Announcement:
    The seven events of the 2012-13 ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating are:
    1st event Courchevel, FRA 22.08.2012 – 26.08.2012 (Aug. 22-26, 2012)
    2nd event (incl. Pairs) Lake Placid, USA 29.08.2012 – 02.09.2012 (Aug. 29-Sept. 2)
    [one week off]
    3rd event (incl. Pairs) Linz, AUT 12.09.2012 – 16.09.2012 (Sept. 12-16)
    4th event Istanbul, TUR 19.09.2012 – 23.09.2012 (Sept. 19-23)
    5th event Bled, SLO 26.09.2012 – 30.09.2012 (Sept. 26-30)
    6th event (incl. Pairs) Zagreb, CRO 03.10.2012 – 07.10.2012 (Oct. 3-7)
    7th event (incl. Pairs) Dresden, GER 10.10.2012 – 14.10.2012 (Oct. 10-14)

    ETA link to the general JGP thread in GSD where skaters/teams from all countries are being discussed: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=83541
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2012
  16. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Thanks for that. I've been following the JGP for the only the past two years so I'm still learning how everything works. Year before last, I only had protocols and whatever videos I could find. I'm happy that the ISU made that JGP YouTube channel; I was able to watch every competition and performance. I really hope they continue with that again this year and in the future. It makes for a much richer experience in terms of watching skaters grow and mature as the years go by.
     
  17. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    So we'll know by midway through July, pretty much.

    I'm bugging at how short the off-season is as a Junior. They start nearly three months ahead of the Seniors!
     
  18. dancergrl

    dancergrl Member

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    how many entries does US get for each discipline for JGP's?
     
  19. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    The ISU should publish the entries for Courchevel (JGP #1) by late July, followed by Lake Placid 1 week later, Linz 2 weeks after that (no JGP the first week of Sept.), and so forth.

    The U.S. has 15 JGP slots for men, ladies, and dance teams and 12+ for pairs (U.S. can send 3 men/ladies/dance teams to Lake Placid and more than 3 pairs if they want).
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2012
  20. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    I hope Angela Wang gets 2... She deserves it after not being given a spot at Junior Worlds. I hope USFA doesnt favour Cain again
     
  21. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Good point!
     
  22. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Now that I've seen couple of JGP-eligible ladies do their short programs, I believe the ability to do the triple flip should be a deciding factor as to who gets to go.

    I also think USFS should consider sending girls with senior level skills except a reliable 3 flip to a senior B instead.
     
  23. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ITA. I remember watching her at junior nationals; she really caught my eye then. Last year she really blew me away with her SP. She's got great qualities and a commanding presence on the ice. If she can get some more consistency to her jumps she could be a top contender.

    ITA with this as well. Angela had a great showing at nationals. She's another skater with great qualities and that spark that's needed to be a champion. Angela is still rough around the edges but she has a natural grace and charm about her that is just screaming for a Kwan-like transformation. If she gets hold of some great choreography and ups her presentation skills more, she could be a real contender. I mean, she had some of the most difficult technical content this year.

    I'm excited to see what both Angela and Nina can do this year. I hope they get the opportunity to participate in the JGP...
     
  24. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    Just to check that the pile of scrambled mush currently passing as my brain isn't playing tricks on me, it IS possible for Joshua, Jason and Han to all do two JGPs and NOT come up against each other before JGPF, right? :confused:

    That would be the ideal, and though I'm sure that the USFSA will do whatever they can to avoid putting Josh and Jason up against each other, I guess it depends on what the Chinese Fed decide with Han Yan.

    Meanwhile I foresee the same three skaters as last year locking out the JGPF podium (maybe not in the same order).
     
  25. Jayar

    Jayar Well-Known Member

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    Not sure why you have to knock one skater to promote another. There is room for both skaters on the JGP. And with Gracie on the GP, Ashley is the highest ranking junior lady from last season heading to the JGP from 2012 Nats. Angela is probably 1st or 2nd in line to get an assignment with Lam and Cain.
     
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I think USFS will shuffle assignments around to give their skaters the best shot of qualifying for the JGPF, they did this last season when they reassigned Cesario from Milan to Talinn so she wouldn't have to compete against Lipnitskaya, Miyahara, and Hicks all at the same event. But yes, there are 6 (7?) JGP events, so Yan, Farris, and Brown could theoretically all attend 2 different events each. USFS can see which events Yan is assigned to and determine assignments accordingly. Further, it might come down to how others do at their first assignments, for example if someone like Chen or Choate medals/wins his first event, USFS could potentially send Farris to compete against Yan because he at least can reasonably compete against him, and if he were to win his 1st event, a 2nd or 3rd place at his second would likely get him to the final anyways, whereas Choate or Chen you can pretty much expect to get creamed by Yan (unless they are attempting and cleanly landing 3a by then) and would likely need a strategic 2nd assignment placement to get to the JGPF. So we shall see, at least these boys who really are ready to go senior will have serious competition in the form of each other on the junior ranks, it will at least push them to be their best.
     
  27. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I'm nervous about Nina Jiang. She's really good, but 3f doesn't seem to be a strong jump for her, her 3lz is definitely more consistent at this point, but the jump out of steps for junior ladies in the SP this year is the 3f. So I know where she's skating as a senior domestically that doesn't matter, but it will probably play a factor in JGP assignments. And with Keiser and Edmunds kicking butt so far in summer competitions, I'm worried that she might not get any assignment at all, which would be really sad because she's a beautiful skater with so many great qualities and she DOES have the technical content now, 3f just happens to be probably her worst jump :(. Keeping my fingers crossed for her, hopefully, if she skates well in summer competitions she'll be assigned regardless of if she has issues with the 3f.
     
  28. skfan

    skfan New Member

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    it's too early to conclude that nina won't show progress with 3f in later summer competitions. didn't someone say she will be at skate detroit?

    nina's polish and refinement make her stand out. several juniors have 3-3's, so to me, what nina possesses is more rare, precious.

    if i'm worried about anybody being left out, it's mariah bell. she's so wonderfully charismatic, i really hope she somehow gets a JGP.

    it's very admirable, what barbie long and polina edmunds have achieved. was it dick button who said it's easier to have the jumps first and develop presentation after?

    ehhh... i don't really believe that. once they have the jumps and are rewarded for tech, most skaters don't bother fixing posture and pointing their toes. so... umm... yeah... go nina! :D
     
  29. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I think Edmunds' program tonight had it all. Good basic skating, presentation, jumps. Of course, I need slow-mo to check for URs, but from that video, Edmunds is totally ready for :kickass: at JGP

    If she keeps at this, she can be the ultimate upcomer. Not that she's necessarily more talented than the other upcomers before her, but I can see her peaking at the right time and the right age. With other girls I sometimes wonder if they left one of their senior-eligible, peaking years in juniors (you never know, of course).
     
  30. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Well said and I hope you're right! I was happy to see Nina finally being rewarded with the PCS she deserves last season. I think she will be at Skate Detroit, though I'm not positive, she usually does either Liberty or Skate Detroit but last year it was Skate Detroit (which she won!). And maybe you are right about the 3f, she actually learned it before the 3lz, and she managed to get the 3lz pretty consistent last season so the same could happen for the 3f this season. I presume last season she was working more on the 3lz, but this season where the flip is required for the JGP SP, she's probably focusing her attention on that jump now. Wishing her all the best this summer. I loved loved her SP from last season, and the video I saw of her new (tango) SP from the Bluebonnet Open also looked like it had the potential to be a great program, even though she wasn't totally on with the jumps there. But it is early still so there's time.

    As for Mariah, she was 5th in juniors at Nationals, was sent to compete at Gardenia where she was 2nd, and with Gracie doing SGP, I'd say she's likely to get an initial invite even without stellar summer competition results. As long as she doesn't consistently tank, which she hasn't yet, her FS at BMO was respectable, she should be fine in terms of getting an assignment, and if she does well chances are she'll get a 2nd.