2012-13 ISU Grand Prix Alternate Selection (continued)

Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by Sylvia, Oct 15, 2012.

  1. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I'm still iffy about Alissa participating. I think we'll know by the end of the week of TEB whether or not Alissa will compete. If she doesn't, Kaetlyn has a shot at that spot if the JSF wants to invite her...

    I'm happy for Mirai. She had a decent showing at COC and this is an opportunity for her to get some momentum for herself heading into nationals. A strong performance at NHK will surely help her in the eyes of the judges...
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2012
  2. hohoho

    hohoho Member

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    This is the last day that Alissa can withdrawl and the JSF is obligated to replace her. With her ongoing injuries and that she cannot make the final anyway with only one assignment, wouldn't it be better to step aside now and let someone else compete. Osmond could get a shot at making the final. Personally, if Alissa decides not to compete at NHK or shows up there and competes like Flatt at SA, I would have lost all respect for her.
     
  3. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Alissa would do that and even if she did, she would still be more enjoyable with her spins than a flat Flatt. Alissa doesn't need to step aside this is the GP series (i.e. cash and exposure), if it was worlds and the nation was counting on her for future spots then I would agree with you but she would be stepping aside for another American skater not a Canadian.
     
  4. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    :sekret: putting my conspiracy theory hat on, maybe Russian Fed agreed to pull Polina so that Mirai could get in only if USFSA agreed to NOT pull Alissa in time so Kaetlyn wouldn't get in.

    I suppose that doesn't make any sense as Mirai could theoretically knock either Julia or Liza out of GPF just as Kaetlyn could. But as Kaetlyn is 6 points ahead of Mirai, the odds are better for Russia with Mirai in as opposed to Kaetlyn.
     
  5. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    If Alissa is serious about competing, showing up at NHK just to show up is a bad idea. People are already skeptical of her capabilities. If she's not ready to be competitive (which I just don't think she is) then she needs to sit this one out. Mirai already has her spot so I don't care about her stepping aside for someone else to have a chance...this is about Alissa. Bad exposure will do nothing to help her in the eyes of the international judges or the USFSA. She tanked/imploded/exploded all over the ice in Nice...the last thing she wants is to have her first competition back to be anywhere along those lines.

    Reputation is key in this sport and right now Alissa's is pretty damn low. She doesn't need to do anything that will bring her stock down any farther. If she's not confident she can turn in a respectable skate, I say she should stay home and rest up, and be as prepared as possible for nationals.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2012
  6. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    If Alissa were to withdraw from NHK, wouldn't she help herself out by participating in some December Senior B competition (NRW, Golden Spin) prior to US Nationals, provided that she is healthier ?
     
  7. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    If Czisny is in any shape, and her spins haven't been affected by her injury, I don't see why she wouldn't go to NHK. No one expects her to be in great shape, the trip is paid for, and she'll get feedback for her programs. With her PCS, she might even make some prize money, and she's likely to get some WS points as well, since the Top 8 do.

    Were she to withdraw, it's not as if the Japanese Federation would have to choose Osmond: they'd have a choice of Osmond, Glebova, McCorkell, Lafuente and Forte, or, if for some reason USFS didn't submit Forte's name, Popova. (I'm leaving off Flatt, who's higher-ranked than Osmond, because she's injured, although withdrawing from a Senior B doesn't make her ineligible for another GP selection, and Geng WD from CoC.)

    The Japanese Fed would be crazy to choose Osmond in a year that making the GPF means getting to test drive the arena in Sochi. The top Japanese women will be under pressure because it's NHK, and they should have formidable competition from Lipnitskaia. Gedevanishvili could be a dark horse, if she gets her nerves under control, and I don't think the Japanese Federation would take a chance on another possible spoiler knocking one of its top two women out of GPF, especially since Murakami would be hard-pressed to keep the final spot with 20 points.

    Lafuente or Forte/Popova would be the perfect choice: they wouldn't be doing back-to-back events, like McCorkell or Glebova, they've had none this season, like the others on the list, and Lafuente is the only one who is still looking for a Worlds TES SP minimum score. Popova's had some strong skates this year, re-making the TES minimums, but nothing dominant. Forte would be a US for US swap.
     
  8. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    If Alissa is not in competition shape and finishes 9th or 10th at NHK, not only would she further damage her already dogeared reputation, but she wouldn't even get any World Standing points. She'd be better off doing a Senior B later on, because she'd have a pretty good shot at finishing top 5 and gaining some WS points.
     
  9. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    There would be nothing to stop her from doing both.
     
  10. hoptoad

    hoptoad Well-Known Member

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    Plus she'll at least be ON the season's best score list for next year (I forget what it's called). Even with a mediocre score by her standards, she might get a GP assignment next year, or at least show up on the alternates list. I think the only remaining competitions that count for that list is 4Cs and Worlds, and her chances of skating at either seem pretty low at this point. I hope she's well enough to skate.
     
  11. hoptoad

    hoptoad Well-Known Member

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    Never mind! Czisny is still 5th on the world standings list, so I guess she has another year before she has to worry about not getting GP assignments.
     
  12. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    I think your first instinct is right: she's fifth now, but 1391 points will drop off from the 2010-11 season, and the remaining 1259 points will be factored by .7, leaving her with 881. While every year is different, 881 points would have put her in the 40's on the SB list for GP selection.

    The only skaters on the list that have more drop-off points (even with the 70% factor) from 2010-11 than will be retained from 2011-12 with a 70% factor are Nagasu, J. Helgesson, Ando, Phaneuf, Shoji, Flatt, and Glescic. Of these, Phaneuf, Flatt, and Ando are the only ones likely to fall below Czisny, unless she has a spectacular comeback at either 4C's or Worlds -- she can only get credit for one in WS standings -- and earns some GP points, especially since most of those currently below her now have been competing in GP's and Senior B's and can earn some at Euros and 4C's. There are a few like Silete, currently below her, whose been injured and hasn't be able to get GP points, that probably will stay below her.

    I don't think any in the top 40's are ineligible for Euros/4C's, and even if they make the Worlds TES minimums there and compete in London, chances are they'd earn more points at Euros/4C's. Yuna Kim will lose 756 points, but could easily pass Czisny were Czisny to earn none this year, by medaling in London.

    Getting on the SB list would be a good thing for Czisny, and, as you point out, this cannot be done at a Senior B. Counting on being Top 24 WS or a Skate America host pick, especially if she's weak at Nationals, is not a good bet.
     
  13. Rock2

    Rock2 Well-Known Member

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    OK you guys are all depressing me. I'm convinced now that Osmond's not getting another GP.
    Oh well, bright side says she goes to the challenge and tries out some new elements and is fresh for the Nats-4CC-World's run
     
  14. alilou

    alilou Crazy Stalker Lady

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    I'd love her to get a 2nd GP, but this is a good scenario for sure - fresh for nats, 4cc and worlds
     
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  15. 4rkidz

    4rkidz GPF Barcelona here I come

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    I agree, she is also in school so maybe a more balanced schedule to put her in a good place ready for worlds..
     
  16. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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  17. attyfan

    attyfan Well-Known Member

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  18. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    Yes and no. The French Fed could, but they aren't obliged to. The top five men on the alternates list are:

    Hendrickx, already assigned
    Rogozine
    Bush
    Murakami
    Majorov

    Correction to earlier posts: I thought Lipnitskaia was at NHK and would rival Suzuki and Asada, but she's at TEB.
     
  19. kylet3

    kylet3 Well-Known Member

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    I think one Grand Prix for Kaetlyn at this point is just fine. She can go into challenge fresh without any pressure and work out the little kinks in her skating and work out any little flaws. Go into nationals with some competition experience behind her and then get ready for the 4CC and World Championships in London. She's done spectacularly this season and is on the right track.
     
  20. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    Vartman/van Cleave have been removed from the NHK list as of today. I'm pretty sure there's no one on the alternates list, even if the Japanese Fed wanted to assign someone, because only Senior B's up to Cup of Nice count towards meeting the GP minimum and getting on the list for winning.
     
  21. Hedwig

    Hedwig Rarely here anymore but I try to be better!

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    I hope the ISU makes a provision next year for new ways to get on the alternate list. It is quite ridiculous at this point. :(
    I don't like competitions with only 5 or 6 pairs.
     
  22. skatingguy

    skatingguy Active Member

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    Sometimes it seems that these late withdrawals are unavoidable but maybe the ISU could have the alternates for the Grand Prix events listed ahead of time - 2 per discipline per event - it might be an incentive to have the national skating federations withdraw injured skaters earlier than they currently are willing to do.
     
  23. fan

    fan Active Member

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    Czisny is now out.
     
  24. nlyoung

    nlyoung Active Member

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    Of course she is. And too late for anyone else to be assigned I would imagine...
     
  25. carriecmu0503

    carriecmu0503 Member

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    S/S have officially withdrawn from TEB.
     
  26. Jenifer

    Jenifer Active Member

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    It's more than seven days before NHK, so inviting a replacement for Czisny is at the organizers' discretion. I think the ISU should put pressure on them to invite Osmond. The whole point of the GPF is that the six best skaters in the series qualify. To deny someone a chance at qualifying precisely because she has a good shot at it is the antithesis of the whole concept of the Grand Prix. Plus, Canadians don't need a visa to go to Japan and I'd bet that the Canadian fed would be willing to chip in to cover flight expenses :shuffle:
     
  27. Tesla

    Tesla Whippet Good

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    Nevermind
     
  28. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    The cynic in me cant help but thinking S/S withdrawal has also to do with avoiding losing momentun by being beaten by overscored V&T in Sochi . *sighs*
     
  29. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    Since it's between 14 and 7 days before NHK, the GP Announcement is mum on replacement policy, but Czisny could be replaced.

    For a start, they could stop limiting the number of Senior B's at which a team with a Top 75 SB can meet the ISU minimums. If that were the case, Montalbano/Krasnopolski would have been added to the list after Ice Challenge. (I haven't checked for any others, and in Pairs, any Pair that competed in a senior or junior GP, championship, WTT, or Youth Olympic Games made the Top 75 SB list.) For any discipline but Pairs, this is pretty much irrelevant, since the alternates list is so long, and dance has additional "split couples". Since S/S withdrew so late, though, an alternates list with 20 pairs would have been moot.

    I don't think it's reasonable for teams to be place in limbo with their training to be pre-assigned as alternates, although I think hosts should be getting visa paperwork done on a set number of alternates.

    For GP, I don't know why they don't start with 1-2 more per discipline, and only go to the alternates list after the current number is reached. If they had nine pairs and lost one, they could start with eight, for example. They have more per group in singles and dance at championships.

    The next five Ladies on the alternates list are: Flatt, Osmond, Glebova (at TEB), McCorkell (at TEB), and Lafuente, or if Flatt were removed due to injury, Forte.

    If they did want the strongest competitors, they'd put GP medalists with one on the top of the alternates list, and not in a group, skipping only if there was a rules conflict (already assigned, already three from the country) or visa issues. Having the skater's Federation be given the option of paying for the difference between the travel costs of the replacement skater and the already purchased ticket(s) and even the visa costs, if necessary, could be a good option. (The rest of the costs are a wash.)
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2012
  30. sus2850

    sus2850 Active Member

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    Can S/S replace V/V at NHK, or is it: you withdrew from your original assignment, that's it, no second chance for you?