2011-2012 US JGP Assignment Predictions/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Jan 25, 2011.

  1. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    If my math is correct, the following will be age-ineligible next season.

    MEN - Alex Zahradnicek, Max Aaron, Alex Aiken, Steven Evans, Keegan Messing, Richard Dornbush, Nathan Chen (only one of the main contendors that is too young)

    PAIRS- Andrews/LeDuc, Bautista/Harris, Cain/Reagan, Denney/Raad, Poapst/Knierim, Sowa/Leenen
    -----------------

    That would leave-

    MEN- Joshua Farris, Jason Brown, Emmanuel Savary, David Wang, Philip Warren, Jordan Moeller, Nix Phengsy, Alexander Bjelde, Tim Dolensky (5th at Sectionals but could end up on JGP again, strong skater), perhaps a few others depending on how the FS goes

    PAIRS- whomever stays together of Calalang/Sidhu, Carman/Reiss, Duarte/Grafton, Garza/Frazier, Oltmanns/Santillan from the Junior Pairs...Aaron/Settlage, Goldberg/Dolkiewicz, and Shaughnessy/Morgan from the Novice Pairs should be included also.

    Three of the top 6 Novice Pairs are age ineligible- Liu/Perini (she too young- birthday 12/99), Fields/Pacini (he aging out- birthday 4/1990), and de la Mora/Wilson (she too young-I think- birthday is 1/99)


    LADIES- as usual, a complete overload of talent- Hicks, Kulgeyko, Dinh, Marley, Daniels, Edmunds, Cain, Jiang, Miller, Long, Bell....not to mention seniors like Lam, Gong, Siraj, F. Zhang, and the 3 who withdrew- Dobbs, Cesario, and Baga. Assuming Gao will move up to GP series.
     
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  2. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Well Dobbs already competed on the SGP this season, so she won't be moving down to the JGP. Gao will move up to seniors, and there's a strong chance Siraj and Lam will as well pending nationals and junior worlds (if they are sent) results. If Baga were competing at nationals, I would say she'd move up too, but where she withdrew and has been fighting injuries all season, JGP or Senior Bs are more likely. Cesario will be turning 18 over the summer, so she might try for a host spot at SA and go to some Senior Bs, but technically she's still young enough for the JGP next season. Gong likely senior Bs, maybe a GP event if she does well at nationals. I think there's a strong chance we won't see Alexe and Caroline on the GP next season, so that might open up some spots.

    JGP, they might try and spread the wealth like they did this year. Hicks (unless she does what Agnes did and goes straight to seniors), Kulgeyko, Dinh, Marley, Daniels, Cain, Jiang, Edmunds (I think she'll be old enough) are all strong bets. Hannah Miller might get sent as well but usually at most only the novice champion gets JGP assignments and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers have to wait another year. There don't seem to be too many senior ladies that will go to the JGP next season - Cesario, Gong, Lam, Siraj, Kawamura, F. Zhang are all possibilities but senior Bs are more likely for the older girls (Cesario, Gong, Kawamura, Zhang) and if the younger girls (Siraj, Lam) skate up to their potential, they may make the jump to senior GP. This might mean Long and Bell could get JGP assignments next season.
     
  3. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Hicks should go to the senior GP if she can medal at jr. worlds (IF she even gets to go).
     
  4. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    This talk should really come after Jr. Worlds cause it all depends how many JGP spots US will get. They need to be in the top 3 countries in each category to get 2 spots in every JGP event.

    In Ladies, Russia will more than likely be the top country with Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva and if Shoji and Zijun Li finish 3rd and 4th just like in JGP final, the american girls could be in trouble.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2011
  5. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I agree. If Hicks skates tomorrow like she did last night she's not only going to Jr Worlds but she should jump to Seniors next year. Time to jettison underachievers like Alexe Gilles and Caroline Zhang. It's all about developing champions and Hicks could be one if she continues to improve. Frankly she blew me away last night.
     
  6. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    Courtney is a wonderful skater, and I think she has a lot of potential, but the free skate hasn't even be skated yet, and medaling at JW is a big ask. I see no reason why she should bypass the JGP where she gets a really opportunity to gain points and an international reputation. It hasn't exactly worked out for Agnes Zawadzki.
     
  7. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    IMO, it hasn't worked for Agnes because she hasn't delivered and even she knows that according to one of the articles before Nationals. She could have been top 3 at either of her GP events this year but she blew the long each time. Hicks would get enough of rep if she could do well at Jr. Worlds like Agnes did last year. I don't see any reason for a world senior eligible skater to be on the JGP if they have the content to compete.
     
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Agnes's subpar performances on the GP this season almost definitely would have been enough to get her into the JGPF, and she may have even been able to medal there. I personally think she would have been better off doing the JGP so she could get used to international competition without having all the pressure of senior GP events, and chances are she would have skated better, or even if she didn't, it would have been enough to make the final and gain ranking points. If Courtney does the JGP next season, she can go on to compete at senior nationals and still have a shot at making the senior world team. Jumping to the senior GP right away with a very low world standing will likely just lead to early start order and low PCS. Zhang and Gilles can be jettisoned by skaters who have already competed on and medaled at the JGP like Gao, Lam, and Siraj.
     
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah but look what happened to Mirai. She won SENIOR nationals at age 14 and then jumped to the senior GP the next season and had a disasterous season. She would have been better off doing the JGP for another season while she was adjusting to body changes and the pressure of being US champion.
     
  10. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    Plus, Courtney is younger. I think one run-through on the JGP would benefit her, and then she can go to seniors.
     
  11. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    Exactly.

    And diving right into the SGP (with a low rank, aka early start order aka low PCS) can be very intimidating if you don't have much experience under your belt, which Courtney doesn't. I think that had a lot to do with Agnes's meltdowns.
     
  12. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Well said. Plus if Adelina and Liza move on to the senior GP next season, Courtney could very likely tear up the JGP which would give her a lot of ranking points, exposure, and confidence. I mean, Kanako stayed on the JGP a second year as a 15 year old and won everything, and now in her 1st season senior she's winning all sorts of medals, even at the GPF. The same thing happened to Yuna.
     
  13. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    Yeah. Especially since she could do the JGP next year and still have one year out on the GP before the Olympic season.
     
  14. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Umm, no. Mirai won her 2 JGP events and the JGPF. There was no point in her going back to the junior circuit. :rolleyes:
     
  15. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Well considering her age it wouldn't have been crazy. Yuna won both her events and was 2nd at the JGPF and 2nd at Junior Worlds in 04-05 and then stayed on the junior circuit for the 05-06 season.
     
  16. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    Yu-Na wasn't dominating the JGP circuit like Mirai did that year. Additionally, Mirai was eligible for senior championships after her first year on the JGP, while Yu-Na was not.
     
  17. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

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    Shoji and Li will likely stay at the JGP, Lipnitskaya will be old enough to go, Deeva, who has huge jumps and will do 3-3's next year for sure, will go too, Agafonova, Sheveleva... Anna Ovcharova will be back after injury... It's not going to be much easier next year
     
  18. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I've always been curious. What's the requirements for a Junior skater to be able to skate as a Senior at the US Nationals?
     
  19. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Pass the USFS Senior Moves in the Field and Free Skating tests.
     
  20. dupagegal

    dupagegal New Member

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    Wow there a very few JGP eligable pairs.....what are the requirements for new high potential teams to get an assignment? All these teams look weak...there are a few new teams coming together and I was wondering do they have to wait a year? Some of these teams will be good from the start....just add ice....will indy decide?
     
  21. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Yes, doing well at Indy definitely can put a new team in the running for a JGP spot. Not all the teams I've listed above will get a spot - if they do poorly at Nats and Indy, and a better team emerges by the time Indy rolls around, the new team generally will get the spot first. We'll have to see how much the novice teams can upgrade their difficulty for next season - all of the top 6 have good potential IMO.

    Also, Garza/Frazier are a pretty rocking team- watch for them in the SP today- LOVE that program. :cheer:
     
  22. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    This is true. However, while the Russian girls you mentioned are all very good, they aren't quite Adelina and Liza level, at least not yet, so Courtney could definitely hang in there with all of them if not win a lot. But the deep JGP field is just another reason why she should do the JGP, it's not like she won't have any competition there, her 3-3s and PCS will be valuable assets and even with them, it's still going to be steep competition among the top ladies there.
     
  23. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

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    Very few? There are 12 current US novice and junior teams that will be age eligible for the JGP next year. That's quite a lot, only Russia has more, there will probably be some splits but also new teams too.
     
  24. sk9tingfan

    sk9tingfan Well-Known Member

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    Remember the famous story about Michelle Kwan and how at the age of 12 she took her senior tests behind Frank Carroll's back. He had wanted her to remain as a Junior for an additional season. She took matters into her own hands.:)
     
  25. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Here are the JGP age-eligible skaters/teams listed initially in the 2011-12 International Selection Pool (ISP) on the USFS site. I've included their 2011 Nationals placement or withdrawal (wd) and the number of JGPs and Finals they've done. I didn't include any JGP age-eligibles who've already competed on the Senior Grand Prix.

    LADIES (20)
    Kiri Baga S-wd (4+2 JGPF, wd this season)
    Ashley Cain J6
    Samantha Cesario S-wd (1)
    McKinzie Daniels J4
    Lauren Dinh J2
    Haley Dunne J8
    Polina Edmunds J7
    Christina Gao S5 (4+2 JGPF) - GP next season?
    Kristiene Gong S11 (3+JGPF)
    Courtney Hicks J1 (JW6)
    Nina Jiang J9 (1)
    Ellie Kawamura S16 (2+JGPF 2 yrs ago)
    Katarina Kulgeyko J3
    Vanessa Lam S7 (1)
    Mary Beth Marley J5
    Hannah Miller N1
    Yasmin Siraj S8 (2+JGPF)
    Kelsey Traunero S13
    Angela Wang J-dnq (1)
    Felicia Zhang S-wd (1)

    MEN (10)
    Jason Brown S9 (2)
    Harrison Choate J8
    Timothy Dolensky J-dnq (1)
    Joshua Farris S21 (4+JGPF)
    Jordan Moeller N2
    Shotaro Omori J9
    Nix Phengsy N3
    Emmanuel Savary J5
    David Wang J7
    Philip Warren J6

    PAIRS (9)
    Aaron/Settlage N1
    Agster/Civiello J-dnq (1)
    Bergdolt/Addison N7
    Calalang/Sidhu J8 (1)
    Carman/Reiss J4 (3)
    Duarte/Grafton J7 (3)
    Goldberg/Dolkiewicz N3
    Oltmanns/Santillan J11 (1)
    Shaughnessy/Morgan N5

    DANCE (9)
    Aldridge/Eaton J5 (2)
    Bonacorsi/Mager J2 (4)
    Gamelin/Gamelin J7 (1)
    Hawayek/Bramante N3
    Heritage/Fast J8
    Mancini/Brooks N2
    Parsons/Parsons N1
    Pogrebinsky/Gudis N4
    Yang/Baker J6 (2)
    (I left off Oi/Jahnke N5 because they have split.)
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2011
  26. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    Nice to see Angela Wang on the list!
     
  27. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Thought it was a good time to bump up this thread! ;)

    They are still listed in the ISP as of today but have split.

    New age-eligible pairs that are scheduled to compete this summer:
    Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer
    Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier (reteamed)
    Christine Mozer/Danny O'Shea

    Moving these relevant posts from the US club comps thread in Kiss and Cry :):
    Lindsay Davis did not compete singles after her JGP in Austria last fall - she withdrew from the Senior Ladies event at SWP Regionals last season (she's 19 now anyway). Mariah Bell (N3) is old enough but neither she or Long (N2) are currently listed in the ISP.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2011
  28. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    I think obvious choices are:

    Siraj
    Lam
    Hicks
    Dinh
    Kulgeyko

    All likely to get a 2nd event so thats 10 spots already, after that fighting for 4 spots:

    Daniels
    Marley
    Cain
    Miller
    or any of Baga,Cesario, Zhang if they want to stay in JGP.
     
  29. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Okay, thanks. Bell looks so young! ;)

    Long and Bell are not in the ISP, and neither are Leah Keiser nor Gracie Gold.

    They will have to really impress officials at the monitoring comps to even be added to the ISP, never mind being selected. I assume Bell & Gold will be at Broadmoor as usual, while Long could do Skate Detroit. Keiser could do Glacier Falls and/or Golden West.
     
  30. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Thought this clip was relevant to this thread, since the solo SP jump for juniors this year is the Lutz.

    Nina Jiang - 3Lz attempt