2011-2012 US JGP Assignment Predictions/Discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Jan 25, 2011.

  1. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2002
    Messages:
    6,554
    If my math is correct, the following will be age-ineligible next season.

    MEN - Alex Zahradnicek, Max Aaron, Alex Aiken, Steven Evans, Keegan Messing, Richard Dornbush, Nathan Chen (only one of the main contendors that is too young)

    PAIRS- Andrews/LeDuc, Bautista/Harris, Cain/Reagan, Denney/Raad, Poapst/Knierim, Sowa/Leenen
    -----------------

    That would leave-

    MEN- Joshua Farris, Jason Brown, Emmanuel Savary, David Wang, Philip Warren, Jordan Moeller, Nix Phengsy, Alexander Bjelde, Tim Dolensky (5th at Sectionals but could end up on JGP again, strong skater), perhaps a few others depending on how the FS goes

    PAIRS- whomever stays together of Calalang/Sidhu, Carman/Reiss, Duarte/Grafton, Garza/Frazier, Oltmanns/Santillan from the Junior Pairs...Aaron/Settlage, Goldberg/Dolkiewicz, and Shaughnessy/Morgan from the Novice Pairs should be included also.

    Three of the top 6 Novice Pairs are age ineligible- Liu/Perini (she too young- birthday 12/99), Fields/Pacini (he aging out- birthday 4/1990), and de la Mora/Wilson (she too young-I think- birthday is 1/99)


    LADIES- as usual, a complete overload of talent- Hicks, Kulgeyko, Dinh, Marley, Daniels, Edmunds, Cain, Jiang, Miller, Long, Bell....not to mention seniors like Lam, Gong, Siraj, F. Zhang, and the 3 who withdrew- Dobbs, Cesario, and Baga. Assuming Gao will move up to GP series.
    PeterG and (deleted member) like this.
  2. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,239
    Well Dobbs already competed on the SGP this season, so she won't be moving down to the JGP. Gao will move up to seniors, and there's a strong chance Siraj and Lam will as well pending nationals and junior worlds (if they are sent) results. If Baga were competing at nationals, I would say she'd move up too, but where she withdrew and has been fighting injuries all season, JGP or Senior Bs are more likely. Cesario will be turning 18 over the summer, so she might try for a host spot at SA and go to some Senior Bs, but technically she's still young enough for the JGP next season. Gong likely senior Bs, maybe a GP event if she does well at nationals. I think there's a strong chance we won't see Alexe and Caroline on the GP next season, so that might open up some spots.

    JGP, they might try and spread the wealth like they did this year. Hicks (unless she does what Agnes did and goes straight to seniors), Kulgeyko, Dinh, Marley, Daniels, Cain, Jiang, Edmunds (I think she'll be old enough) are all strong bets. Hannah Miller might get sent as well but usually at most only the novice champion gets JGP assignments and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers have to wait another year. There don't seem to be too many senior ladies that will go to the JGP next season - Cesario, Gong, Lam, Siraj, Kawamura, F. Zhang are all possibilities but senior Bs are more likely for the older girls (Cesario, Gong, Kawamura, Zhang) and if the younger girls (Siraj, Lam) skate up to their potential, they may make the jump to senior GP. This might mean Long and Bell could get JGP assignments next season.
  3. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2003
    Messages:
    1,657
    Hicks should go to the senior GP if she can medal at jr. worlds (IF she even gets to go).
  4. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2008
    Messages:
    1,534
    This talk should really come after Jr. Worlds cause it all depends how many JGP spots US will get. They need to be in the top 3 countries in each category to get 2 spots in every JGP event.

    In Ladies, Russia will more than likely be the top country with Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva and if Shoji and Zijun Li finish 3rd and 4th just like in JGP final, the american girls could be in trouble.
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2011
  5. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,720
    I agree. If Hicks skates tomorrow like she did last night she's not only going to Jr Worlds but she should jump to Seniors next year. Time to jettison underachievers like Alexe Gilles and Caroline Zhang. It's all about developing champions and Hicks could be one if she continues to improve. Frankly she blew me away last night.
  6. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2006
    Messages:
    28,129
    Courtney is a wonderful skater, and I think she has a lot of potential, but the free skate hasn't even be skated yet, and medaling at JW is a big ask. I see no reason why she should bypass the JGP where she gets a really opportunity to gain points and an international reputation. It hasn't exactly worked out for Agnes Zawadzki.
  7. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2003
    Messages:
    1,657
    IMO, it hasn't worked for Agnes because she hasn't delivered and even she knows that according to one of the articles before Nationals. She could have been top 3 at either of her GP events this year but she blew the long each time. Hicks would get enough of rep if she could do well at Jr. Worlds like Agnes did last year. I don't see any reason for a world senior eligible skater to be on the JGP if they have the content to compete.
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,239
    I agree. Agnes's subpar performances on the GP this season almost definitely would have been enough to get her into the JGPF, and she may have even been able to medal there. I personally think she would have been better off doing the JGP so she could get used to international competition without having all the pressure of senior GP events, and chances are she would have skated better, or even if she didn't, it would have been enough to make the final and gain ranking points. If Courtney does the JGP next season, she can go on to compete at senior nationals and still have a shot at making the senior world team. Jumping to the senior GP right away with a very low world standing will likely just lead to early start order and low PCS. Zhang and Gilles can be jettisoned by skaters who have already competed on and medaled at the JGP like Gao, Lam, and Siraj.
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,239
    Yeah but look what happened to Mirai. She won SENIOR nationals at age 14 and then jumped to the senior GP the next season and had a disasterous season. She would have been better off doing the JGP for another season while she was adjusting to body changes and the pressure of being US champion.
  10. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2010
    Messages:
    1,784
    Plus, Courtney is younger. I think one run-through on the JGP would benefit her, and then she can go to seniors.
  11. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2006
    Messages:
    28,129
    Exactly.

    And diving right into the SGP (with a low rank, aka early start order aka low PCS) can be very intimidating if you don't have much experience under your belt, which Courtney doesn't. I think that had a lot to do with Agnes's meltdowns.
  12. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,239
    Well said. Plus if Adelina and Liza move on to the senior GP next season, Courtney could very likely tear up the JGP which would give her a lot of ranking points, exposure, and confidence. I mean, Kanako stayed on the JGP a second year as a 15 year old and won everything, and now in her 1st season senior she's winning all sorts of medals, even at the GPF. The same thing happened to Yuna.
  13. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2010
    Messages:
    1,784
    Yeah. Especially since she could do the JGP next year and still have one year out on the GP before the Olympic season.
  14. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2004
    Messages:
    9,001
    Umm, no. Mirai won her 2 JGP events and the JGPF. There was no point in her going back to the junior circuit. :rolleyes:
  15. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,239
    Well considering her age it wouldn't have been crazy. Yuna won both her events and was 2nd at the JGPF and 2nd at Junior Worlds in 04-05 and then stayed on the junior circuit for the 05-06 season.
  16. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2006
    Messages:
    28,129
    Yu-Na wasn't dominating the JGP circuit like Mirai did that year. Additionally, Mirai was eligible for senior championships after her first year on the JGP, while Yu-Na was not.
  17. Autumn_girl

    Autumn_girl Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2009
    Messages:
    426
    Shoji and Li will likely stay at the JGP, Lipnitskaya will be old enough to go, Deeva, who has huge jumps and will do 3-3's next year for sure, will go too, Agafonova, Sheveleva... Anna Ovcharova will be back after injury... It's not going to be much easier next year
  18. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,720
    I've always been curious. What's the requirements for a Junior skater to be able to skate as a Senior at the US Nationals?
  19. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2004
    Messages:
    9,001
    Pass the USFS Senior Moves in the Field and Free Skating tests.
  20. dupagegal

    dupagegal New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2007
    Messages:
    170
    Wow there a very few JGP eligable pairs.....what are the requirements for new high potential teams to get an assignment? All these teams look weak...there are a few new teams coming together and I was wondering do they have to wait a year? Some of these teams will be good from the start....just add ice....will indy decide?
  21. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2002
    Messages:
    6,554
    Yes, doing well at Indy definitely can put a new team in the running for a JGP spot. Not all the teams I've listed above will get a spot - if they do poorly at Nats and Indy, and a better team emerges by the time Indy rolls around, the new team generally will get the spot first. We'll have to see how much the novice teams can upgrade their difficulty for next season - all of the top 6 have good potential IMO.

    Also, Garza/Frazier are a pretty rocking team- watch for them in the SP today- LOVE that program. :cheer:
  22. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2010
    Messages:
    10,239
    This is true. However, while the Russian girls you mentioned are all very good, they aren't quite Adelina and Liza level, at least not yet, so Courtney could definitely hang in there with all of them if not win a lot. But the deep JGP field is just another reason why she should do the JGP, it's not like she won't have any competition there, her 3-3s and PCS will be valuable assets and even with them, it's still going to be steep competition among the top ladies there.
  23. sammyf

    sammyf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2005
    Messages:
    2,188
    Very few? There are 12 current US novice and junior teams that will be age eligible for the JGP next year. That's quite a lot, only Russia has more, there will probably be some splits but also new teams too.
  24. sk9tingfan

    sk9tingfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,944
    Remember the famous story about Michelle Kwan and how at the age of 12 she took her senior tests behind Frank Carroll's back. He had wanted her to remain as a Junior for an additional season. She took matters into her own hands.:)
  25. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    30,011
    Here are the JGP age-eligible skaters/teams listed initially in the 2011-12 International Selection Pool (ISP) on the USFS site. I've included their 2011 Nationals placement or withdrawal (wd) and the number of JGPs and Finals they've done. I didn't include any JGP age-eligibles who've already competed on the Senior Grand Prix.

    LADIES (20)
    Kiri Baga S-wd (4+2 JGPF, wd this season)
    Ashley Cain J6
    Samantha Cesario S-wd (1)
    McKinzie Daniels J4
    Lauren Dinh J2
    Haley Dunne J8
    Polina Edmunds J7
    Christina Gao S5 (4+2 JGPF) - GP next season?
    Kristiene Gong S11 (3+JGPF)
    Courtney Hicks J1 (JW6)
    Nina Jiang J9 (1)
    Ellie Kawamura S16 (2+JGPF 2 yrs ago)
    Katarina Kulgeyko J3
    Vanessa Lam S7 (1)
    Mary Beth Marley J5
    Hannah Miller N1
    Yasmin Siraj S8 (2+JGPF)
    Kelsey Traunero S13
    Angela Wang J-dnq (1)
    Felicia Zhang S-wd (1)

    MEN (10)
    Jason Brown S9 (2)
    Harrison Choate J8
    Timothy Dolensky J-dnq (1)
    Joshua Farris S21 (4+JGPF)
    Jordan Moeller N2
    Shotaro Omori J9
    Nix Phengsy N3
    Emmanuel Savary J5
    David Wang J7
    Philip Warren J6

    PAIRS (9)
    Aaron/Settlage N1
    Agster/Civiello J-dnq (1)
    Bergdolt/Addison N7
    Calalang/Sidhu J8 (1)
    Carman/Reiss J4 (3)
    Duarte/Grafton J7 (3)
    Goldberg/Dolkiewicz N3
    Oltmanns/Santillan J11 (1)
    Shaughnessy/Morgan N5

    DANCE (9)
    Aldridge/Eaton J5 (2)
    Bonacorsi/Mager J2 (4)
    Gamelin/Gamelin J7 (1)
    Hawayek/Bramante N3
    Heritage/Fast J8
    Mancini/Brooks N2
    Parsons/Parsons N1
    Pogrebinsky/Gudis N4
    Yang/Baker J6 (2)
    (I left off Oi/Jahnke N5 because they have split.)
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2011
  26. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2006
    Messages:
    28,129
    Nice to see Angela Wang on the list!
  27. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    30,011
    Thought it was a good time to bump up this thread! ;)

    They are still listed in the ISP as of today but have split.

    New age-eligible pairs that are scheduled to compete this summer:
    Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer
    Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier (reteamed)
    Christine Mozer/Danny O'Shea

    Moving these relevant posts from the US club comps thread in Kiss and Cry :):
    Lindsay Davis did not compete singles after her JGP in Austria last fall - she withdrew from the Senior Ladies event at SWP Regionals last season (she's 19 now anyway). Mariah Bell (N3) is old enough but neither she or Long (N2) are currently listed in the ISP.
    Last edited: May 24, 2011
  28. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2008
    Messages:
    1,534
    I think obvious choices are:

    Siraj
    Lam
    Hicks
    Dinh
    Kulgeyko

    All likely to get a 2nd event so thats 10 spots already, after that fighting for 4 spots:

    Daniels
    Marley
    Cain
    Miller
    or any of Baga,Cesario, Zhang if they want to stay in JGP.
  29. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    Okay, thanks. Bell looks so young! ;)

    Long and Bell are not in the ISP, and neither are Leah Keiser nor Gracie Gold.

    They will have to really impress officials at the monitoring comps to even be added to the ISP, never mind being selected. I assume Bell & Gold will be at Broadmoor as usual, while Long could do Skate Detroit. Keiser could do Glacier Falls and/or Golden West.
  30. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2004
    Messages:
    9,001
    Thought this clip was relevant to this thread, since the solo SP jump for juniors this year is the Lutz.

    Nina Jiang - 3Lz attempt
  31. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    Alright! Good to know she's at least trying it. In that clip, it would probably be 3Lz<<, but it's been two months so hopefully she's made some progress.
  32. jlai

    jlai Title-less

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Messages:
    8,777
    As deserving as Keiser and Gold are of JGP spots, I'd give the spots to those who qualified for nationals and did well in summer first--that would include Nina Jiang, Hannah Miller and Long. So I don't see Keiser, Wang and Gold getting JGPs at all. :( Had this been a year where the jr girls were weaker maybe.
  33. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2004
    Messages:
    1,082
    Using qualifying to nationals as such a heavy factor in deciding who gets a JGP frustrates me. It would be one thing if qualifying to nationals was done more like gymnastics where all the good athletes are there; it's quite another thing when some of the best skaters are left home each year because their section was a bloodbath. Coasts last season was insane! And Mids had five really great skaters with only four spots. Easterns not so much.

    I do think athletes should be rewarded for doing well at nationals. If you finish in the top three in juniors or the top ten in seniors, you deserve to get the first shot at a JGP. I'm okay with all the initial assignments, i.e., the first seven, being given based on national results. But after those assignments have been given, I would give any additional assignments to skates based primarily on summer results. I wouldn't say J6 is more deserving than J7 or Mids5 simply because of nationals. Send the skaters who are skating the best now . . . not months ago.
  34. Eris

    Eris New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2010
    Messages:
    283
    Agree.

    Such a shame Keiser and Gold won't likely get a spot. :( Now they are good enough not only to compete at JGP but to win medals and qualify for the Final.
  35. gotice

    gotice New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2008
    Messages:
    99
    Then what do you think about sending Dinh J2 at nats on a JGP ahead of Keiser and Gold after her Broadmoor and Liberty performances? She's a national medalist, and on the ISP.
  36. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2004
    Messages:
    1,082
    I think Dinh should go before Keiser and Gold as a reward for skating extremely well through the pressure cooker of both the qualification process and at nationals. I think exceptional Nationals results should mean something. But I do not put a lot of stock in nationals results that weren't particularly compelling. In the event that Dinh doesn't merit a second JGP assignment, I'd happily give it to Keiser or Gold.
  37. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

    Joined:
    May 27, 2002
    Messages:
    30,011
    Also, Lauren Dinh did skate respectably in winning the Junior gold medal at Gardena Spring Trophy in Italy in early April (her total score was 127.21) and so I think Dinh deserves an initial JGP assignment despite not having a good start so far this summer.

    ETA:
    Based on 2011 Nationals results/scores (see haribobo's post below mine), I would give initial JGP assignments to Lam, Siraj, Hicks, Dinh, and Kulgeyko, and then consider who is skating well this summer (in more than one competition and preferably one of the "majors").

    Jiang was credited with landing a clean 3Lz in her initial Senior FS at Skate Detroit and received -2.10 GOE on the 3Lz in her Final round FS the next day. Good to see her making progress on this jump!
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2011
  38. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2002
    Messages:
    6,554
    2011 SR LADIES @ Nats
    7 Vanessa Lam All Year FSC 162.91 6 7
    8 Yasmin Siraj SC of Boston 152.75 8 8
    11 Kristiene Gong All Year FSC 143.30 17 10
    16 Ellie Kawamura All Year FSC 121.94 16 14

    2011 JR LADIES @ Nats
    1 Courtney Hicks All Year FSC 173.22 1 1
    2 Lauren Dinh Broadmoor SC 153.99 3 2
    3 Katarina Kulgeyko Los Angeles FSC 146.62 2 3
    4 McKinzie Daniels Broadmoor SC 138.59 5 5
    5 Mary Beth Marley DuPage FSC 137.82 4 6
    6 Ashley Cain Stars FSC of Texas 137.44 7 4
    7 Polina Edmunds Peninsula SC 132.91 6 8
    8 Haley Dunne Washington FSC 132.57 9 7
    9 Nina Jiang Texas Gulf Coast FSC 128.55 8 9

    2011 NOVICE @ Nats
    1 Hannah Miller Lansing SC 122.30 3 1
    2 Barbie Long Springfield FSC 121.85 2 2
    3 Mariah Bell Rocky Mountain FSC 115.33 1 3
    4 Amanda Hofmann Highland SC 100.16 9 4

    Then you have Cesario, Wang, Gold, and Keiser skating very well so far this summer.

    I think if Cesario does not end up getting Nebelhorn or Skate America, she should be in the mix for JGP spots. Lam, Siraj, Hicks, Dinh, Kulgeyko should all get an original spot if their training is going well. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hannah Miller and Barbie Long gain spots as they've been doing quite well this summer.

    I don't know what's happening with Gong or Kawamura so I'm leaving them out for now. I don't think we'll see Bell or Hofmann with spots. Then we have Daniels, Marley, Cain, Edmunds, Dunne, and Jiang...who I suppose would be the first alternates - that is, if Marley and Cain will accept assignments in singles as well as pairs. I'd imagine Gold, Keiser, and Wang would be after them in the pecking order, especially considering that Jiang and Edmunds have done well so far this summer. I would have no problem if Gracie Gold got a spot before someone like Dunne, though- there's a pretty drastic and consistent difference in scoring for those two that IMO should override the fact that Dunne made Nationals and Gracie didn't. Although USFS hasn't been known to leapfrog skaters in the standings like that in the past (ie - giving Jiang an assignment while skipping over Dunne)- what normally happens is a cutoff around 7-9th place in junior and give no skaters below that point assignments, and move along to novice or senior skaters.

    If all or most of our originally assigned skaters place well at their first event, though, there probably won't be too much to discuss about Jiang vs. Dunne vs. Gold...since none would get a spot anyway.
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2011
  39. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2009
    Messages:
    7,139
    :sekret:

    I've heard, unofficially, that Gracie Gold could be added to the ISP.
  40. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2002
    Messages:
    6,554
    Good to hear. I think that any lady scoring over 90 points for a FS at a summer/fall comp should be added to the ISP. Doesn't mean they'll actually get an assignment, but for sure they should be seriously considered.