2010 European Mens Medal Predikt (Post Nat's)

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Dec 29, 2010.

Who will medal?

  1. Brian Joubert

    78.4%
  2. Florent Amodio

    59.0%
  3. Alban Preaubert

    3.6%
  4. Konstantin Menshov

    6.5%
  5. Artur Gachinski

    5.8%
  6. Adrian Schultheiss

    2.9%
  7. Kristoffer Berntsson

    1.4%
  8. Tomas Verner

    84.2%
  9. Michal Brezina

    12.2%
  10. Kevin Van Der Perren

    4.3%
  11. Javier Fernandez

    5.0%
  12. Samuel Contesti

    3.6%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Just curious to see how everyones predictions have changed now that Nationals are complete (sans Germany)....

    Multiple choice allowed. Who will medal?

    Err. 2011 Euros. Sorry.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2010
  2. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Gold I think will be between Joubert and Verner, and Amodio will probably be on the podium in 2nd or 3rd. Contesti and Preaubert could spoil and sneak up there. Right now injuries seem to have taken a toll on Fernandez, Brezina, Gatchinski, and Voronov - all of who would be medal contenders if healthy.
     
  3. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Gachinski IMO is still a medal contendor if his injury isn't too severe. He's quite amazing.
     
  4. Roxanne

    Roxanne Member

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    I think it's between Verner and Joubert for gold and Amodio, Preaubert and Contesti for bronze. Though if Fernandez, Gachinski and Brezina are doing better by Euros they could be medal contenders too. And I guess we can't rule out out Van der Perren. I just hope he doesn't medal.
     
  5. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Joubert, Amodio and Verner are all solid bets. Hardly anyone is voting for anyone else. Verner is not sick like last season so it is doubtful that he'll come in any where near 10th again! If Brezina is at full power he could beat them all! But he lost lots of time training so maybe 2012. Contesti, van der Perren, Preaubert all have tons of experience.

    I wanted to see that last time Russia sent men who had never been there before and it was just in 2008 and Voronov almost medaled. Gachinksi nearly pulled out of Russian nationals and Menshov just did his first GP event in little over a month ago! He did three quads at Russian nationals-bizarrely the only man to do any - so if he could bring that to Euros that could be something.
     
  6. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    For 2010, I know ;)
    For 2011, I think Verner, Amodio and Joubert can do it.
     
  7. Extranjera

    Extranjera New Member

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    I see most of us have similar types ;) I also think Brian, Tomas & Florent will medal at Euros, I'm curious who will win the gold. I hope to see a big come back of JouBi ;)
     
  8. kia_4EverOnIce

    kia_4EverOnIce New Member

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    Tomas, Brian, Florent (I hope in this order!)
     
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I really hope Tomas and Brian are both on the podium! I would love for Tomas to win as a nice comeback victory after her disappointing season last year :).
     
  10. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I voted for Verner, Joubert, and Van der Perren. I think Verner will surely win. Earlier in the season, I would have said Amodio, but he didn't do so great at the GP Final. He did beat Joubert in the FS though at French nationals.. so who knows.. I'd like Preaubert or the Swedes to medal, but I don't think they will. Brezina and Fernandez have been struggling with injury. I'm not that impressed with the Russian guys. Contesti is really a wild card, 'cause he's inconsistent.. he could very well end up on the podium. I'm not that confident in predicting a bronze for Van der Perren, or even the silver for Joubert.
     
  11. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not so sure Verner will win....I HOPE he does and think he will be on the podium, I'm just not sure what color medal he will get. Probably gold or silver, but maybe bronze.

    I feel like a clean Joubert would probably get huge PCS and be able to win, especially because he does a quad in the SP. But Joubert is prone to mistakes, and even when he is clean, he often doesn't max out his jumping passes, something which could potentially make the difference between gold and bronze. So we'll see.

    Amodio could win but he'd probably need Verner and Joubert to make mistakes, on top of him skating really well, for that to happen. But it is Joubert and Verner we are talking about, so it isn't out of the question. Most likely I think he will be 2nd or 3rd though.

    Contesti is usually consistent in the LP, but skaters like Verner, Joubert, and even Amodio generally have a significant PCS cushion over him. It seems like when Contesti lands all his jumps cleanly he scores around 140-145, maybe 150 if he's really "on", which Verner and Joubert can manage with solid but flawed skates (like Verner at the GPF - tripled his quad, only 2 combos, no 3 jump combo, and a turn out of one jump, but still scored 148, and that was with his PCS being a bit lower than usual). Contesti needs to be clean in the SP though to have a realistic chance, and in his two GPs he had major issues in the SP, although he was clean in the SP at Italian nationals so maybe he's turned over a new leaf.

    Van Der Perren is in the same kind of situation as Contesti, his PCS are usually lower than Contesti's though but his odds increase if he reels off one of his sick 3a-3t-3t or 4t-3t-3t combos. We'll see if that happens though.

    Brezina and Fernandez could spoil, and if healthy they'd probably be favorites to podium, but their injuries seem to have taken a toll on them. Neither one put up a great score at nationals so the outlook isn't great for now, although there is still time for that to change. Gatchinski I'd probably also group with these two for now due to his concussion.

    I can't think of any other men who have a realistic shot at medaling, except Preaubert, who may suffer from the 3rd skater syndrome. I'd say his odds of medaling are probably similar to Contesti's, maybe a little better, but not as good as Amodio's.
     
  12. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    It's not clear how Joubert and Verner will skate if they land quads in their free skate. For French nationals Joubert did a triple toe to be clean and Verner fell. Amodio is the only one who did the free skate they plan to do at europeans at their nationals of the major big three contenders for the gold.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2011
  13. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    It might depend on the results of the SP. Joubert seems to make more mistakes when he attempts the quad, and Verner it doesn't seem to take much of a toll on the rest of his FS anymore, but he also has yet to land the quad cleanly in his FS. Amodio probably won't attempt a quad at all unless he's way back after the SP and really needs it to have a shot to medal. Verner scored 156+ for his almost clean, quad-free performance at COR, so if he was totally clean but didn't do the quad, he could probably score around 160. That's a big number, but if he went for the quad and landed it, well then his score could probably be even higher, or he could afford a few minor mistakes and still get a good score. It does seem like Verner usually rotates his quads, so even if he does fall, as long as it was rotated, he wouldn't be out of it.

    Joubert skated well at French nats, but not so well at his GPs, while Verner and Amodio skated pretty well at all their competitions thus far, but can still do even better. I think it will be a very exciting competition!
     
  14. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    I just noticed my typo and if Joubert and Verner did do quads how would that affect the rest of their performance in the FS. It will all probably depend on the SP as Joubert did do one in the SP at French nationals and then just didn't do one in the free as Amodio also made mistakes in his SP. Then if Joubert and Amodio are 1st and 2nd and Verner is 3rd what does he do? It does depend on the SP which I did not really think of- I was just thinking of Free skates! It should be exciting if all do well in the SP. Then the LP should be drama packed.
     
  15. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    If all 3 men are clean in the SP, Joubert would likely be 1st because of the quad, Verner 2nd and Amodio 3rd because they are attempting the same jumps but Verner's PCS are generally higher. And then in the FS, order probably matters. If Joubert really makes a lot of mistakes, Verner could go for a clean performance and open with 3lz-3t, but if he is behind the leader after the SP by a significant margin and those around him are skating well in the FS, he will probably attempt the quad in hopes to gain a higher score. And then if Verner is in 1st after the SP by a good margin, he might just go for the quad anyway knowing that he can afford to make a mistake. The same can be said for the others, although I tend to think Joubert will attempt a quad in the SP and FS regardless because he always does.
     
  16. robinhood

    robinhood Active Member

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    I suppose Verner will win. He's looking mighty consistent this year
    I'm torn with Javier. For one side, I wish him well and a good recovery from his injuries. For the other one I can't stand Morozov and maybe a bad result wouldn't be a negative thing in the long term, if he manages to change coaches
    I missed Brezina this year. He was amazing last season and could have been a contender for gold
     
  17. Jaana

    Jaana Well-Known Member

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    I voted for the following men on the podium (in alphabetical order):

    Joubert
    Menshov
    Verner
     
  18. let`s talk

    let`s talk Banned Member

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    I will say the same thing as before Nats: Brian will win.
     
  19. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I feel like Joubert is always 1st or 3rd at Europeans, I believe the last time he was 2nd at Europeans was in 2005, so I'd say he's due for another silver medal here. So if that happens, it's likely Verner or Amodio will be the champion.
     
  20. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    I'm hoping that all the skaters people are predicting bomb (and Joubert and Verner are definitely likely to do that) and we'll end up with some mad crazy podium like Menshov > Berntsson > Fernandez or whatever. Wouldn't that be a void? :)
     
  21. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    No because Tomas and Brian have already bombed enough time in their careers. Tomas especially seems to have made a lot of progress this season in improving his consistency so it would be sad to see him implode, and Brian too after the convincing comeback he made at French Nationals. I hope to see them both skate well just because they are really impressive and captivating when they skate well, worthy champions.
     
  22. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    Verner - Amodio - and (surprise!) KVDP
     
  23. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    No Joubert? That would be a first in like forever.
     
  24. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Tomas has been talking a lot about improving his consistency but I haven't exactly seen that much progress.

    I mean he even fell on a spin at 3 Nationals... The headcase-ism is still there.
     
  25. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    He has actually made a lot of progress. In previous seasons it was pretty much given he'd single at least one intended triple axel in a competition in addition to singling or doubling another jump or two in the FS. This season, he has yet to pop a triple axel or any other jump in the FS. He did a 2lo at CoC but that wasn't a stamina issue b/c it was at the beginning of the program, it looked like he just didn't get a good edge going into it. He's had 1 poor SP (at the GPF) all season and his FS have all been solid, his lowest FS score is 144 which is quite an accomplishment for Tomas because in previous seasons he commonly had FS scores in the 130s and 120s, or even lower. I mean, his consistency isn't as great as some of the other men at this point, but for me I have definitely noticed a BIG improvement this season. He used to run out of steam at the end of his FS and he doesn't anymore.

    He's on the road to redemption and things are working out well so far, and now that he'll have more time to train and work on things like the quad and his footwork, I wouldn't be surprised if he kicked some serious butt at Euros! He certainly has the talent. Am I the only one who thinks he has improved his consistency and overall skating quite a bit this season? To me it seems blatantly obvious that he is doing much better under his new coach, but maybe I'm the only one who sees it that way because I love Tomas so much :).
     
  26. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for all the info. I guess the only competitions I've seen of him this season were the unlucky ones. ;)

    Tomas and his family are very happy with Emerson. :)
     
  27. let`s talk

    let`s talk Banned Member

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    Wow! Tomas and Brian are so close here (76/75). I hope their competition in Euros will be as exciting!
     
  28. poths

    poths Well-Known Member

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    Wheeeeeee.

    :lol:
     
  29. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Me too! Plus if they are both on the podium what a good looking podium that would be :). Imagine a mens podium with Joubert, Verner, and some other attractive guy like Contesti, KVDP, Brezina, or Fernandez and then a ladies podium with Korpi, Kostner, and some other pretty girl like Gede or Helgesson :). What a beauty pageant that would be :lol:
     
  30. alchemy void

    alchemy void it's time for the perkolator

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    MESHOV! I wanna see quad loop!