2010-2011 U.S. Junior Ladies & JGP assignments discussion

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by chipso1, Aug 28, 2010.

  1. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Thought they deserved their own thread because the event is shaping up to be quite competitive come Nationals. :)

    Top scorers so far this season:
    1. Gracie Gold (149.41) @ Skate Milwaukee (Mids)
    2. McKinzie Daniels (148.79) @ Broadmoor Open (Mids)
    3. Angela Wang (147.85) @ Liberty (Pacs)
    4. Courtney Hicks (140.45) @ Glacier Falls (Pacs)
    5. Lauren Dinh (138.56) @ CO Championships (Mids)
    6. Mary Beth Marley (130.80) @ Skate Detroit (Mids)
    7. Ashley Cain (129.02) @ Skate Detroit (Mids)
    8. Polina Edmunds (128.82) @ Silicon Valley Open (Pacs)
    9. Leah Keiser (119.02) @ Glacier Falls (Pacs)
    10. Katarina Kulgeyko (118.65) @ Glacier Falls (Pacs)

    And don't forget about Nina Jiang (Mids), who scored 131.08 at the JGP Courchevel this weekend.

    In addition, Mary Beth Marley (Mids) scored 99.55 for her FS at the DuPage Open two weeks ago.

    Midwestern and Pacific Coast Sectionals look to be stacked this season! :eek: We could very well see 2-3 legitimate National medal contenders not even qualify.

    Video round-up:

    Mary Beth Marley - DuPage Open FS

    Gracie Gold - Broadmoor Open SP

    Gracie Gold - Broadmoor Open FS

    Polina Edmunds - Broadmoor Open SP

    Angela Wang - Broadmoor Open FS

    McKinzie Daniels - Broadmoor Open FS

    ETA: Thanks Sylvia! ;)
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2010
  2. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    Top 3 Junior ladies at the Glacier Falls Summer Classic club competition earlier this month were:
    Courtney Hicks 140.45 1 1
    Leah Keiser 119.02 2 3
    Katarina Kulgeyko 118.65 3 2
    These scores are not in IJS Scoretracker yet because the official results have not yet been published online. But they are as close to "official" as official. ;)

    Keiser, Kulgeyko, Hicks (N5 at 2010 Nationals), and Edmunds (N6) will all be competing again at Golden West next weekend.
     
  3. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    This is definitely the most excited I have ever been for a US Junior event....there is so much depth in this field that on any given day the podium could be four different skaters. Qualifying for Nationals would even be a huge accomplishment in Mids or Pacs! I can't believe that there is even a chance that Nina who made an impressive JGP debut this weekend wouldn't qualify...
     
  4. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I wish Paulina would stay in novice for another year but I guess not.
     
  5. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    I wish some of these skaters would find a club in the East to represent. Doesn't seem fair that 2-3 of them will be left at home while 4 less-skilled skaters from the East coast will qualify and most likely finish places 9-12 at Nationals.
     
  6. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    ^^ This is what happened last year in the novices. It's a shame...just looking at score tracker you will have kids finishing 6,7,8, at Mids or Pacs who would win Easterns...
     
  7. all_empty

    all_empty Well-Known Member

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    I've never seen any of these juniors skate before and was impressed.

    I like Mary Beth the best out of the bunch. She has an attack and spunk reminiscent of Ashley Wagner (the ponytail, too). Weird technique on a few of her jumps but some nice, original spins (love the combination spin with the hopover) and good speed.

    Gracie looks like a solid skater, but the pops in her free would be very costly at regionals and beyond. The jumps are all there -- although did she try two of the Lutz, flip, and toe in the free skate? I couldn't tell if the first combination was a 2A+3T or a 2A+2T, but she definitely went for a 3L+3T late in the program. Gutsy.

    Polina looks like she's ready for juniors. She looks fragile but had decent speed. The circular step sequence was shallow but very nice.

    Angela had some questionable landings but at least she went for those triples.

    McKinzie has a '80s quality about her skating -- that's not meant to be a diss. She has a simple, clean style. She also looks really tall, and doesn't rotate very quickly, but gets the triples in.

    I hope some of these young women land a JGP spot or two. Not sure what the selection process is for the later events.
     
  8. candle15

    candle15 New Member

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    Mary Beth Marley - DuPage Open FS

    I like IT.:)
     
  9. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Great field. I too hope a few defect to the East, but we'll see...last year's novice medalists are 1) Keiser, 2) Cain, 3) Kulgeyko, 4) Gold. All are very good skaters, but the only one of those 4 to have really impressive summer results so far is Gold. Keiser is too young for JGP. So I'd rather see USFS just keep those 4 on the sidelines in favor of Wang, Lam, and Daniels, who finishes 7, 8, and 9 at Nationals in Junior and had much stronger summer results than N 1-3. Felicia Zhang, 6th Jr, who was very impressive in her Liberty SP, will likely get a spot before any of these others.

    Siraj will get 2 events. If Gao, Gong, Cesario, and Davis all end up with 2 events each...Jiang's and Baga's spots = 12. So that leaves 2 total spots, 1 for Zhang and 1 hopefully for Wang.

    ETA- just watched that Mary Beth Marley video. WOW! My goodness, where has she been all of our lives?! Great! 2010-11 is already my favorite season in over a decade.
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2010
  10. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Mary Beth had a rough FS at Mids last season and just missed qualifying for Nationals. I've been extremely impressed with her attack so far this season. :)
     
  11. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I kind of doubt Davis will get 2 events, she only has 3 triples and they aren't the most consistent. I think Baga, Wang, Jiang are all likely to get 2 events before Davis does. I know the cutoff to get a 2nd event is usually 4th, but Nina's scores were pretty good even though she was 5th, and she was only a few points off 4th but over 10 points above the 6th place finisher, so she may get a 2nd assignment depending on how others do. Cesario and Gong also have been looking good recently, but where the field at most of these events is pretty steep, and if the results are close among the top like they were at Courcheval, it's possible they might not finish high enough to get a 2nd event. I think Gao and Siraj are the only girls who pretty much have 2 spots gauranteed, at this point.
     
  12. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Just watched the vid of Marley....wow :eek:. She's good, those jumps are huge, she reminds me of a cross between Angela Maxell and a young Slutskaya.
     
  13. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I agree Davis' getting 2 jgps is by no means certain. It's likely Baga will get a second while Davis won't.
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2010
  14. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't discount Davis' JGP chances just yet. The 3Lo is her best jump, and her 3T, 3S and 2A are all very good and consistent, too. She has a tough first event, but could definitely go top 4 there based on the quality of her jumps and the strength of her 3Lo.
     
  15. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Baga's just coming off an injury though, and she scored 116 at her competition a couple weeks ago, and that was skating her senior programs, which is pretty good for a month after a stress fracture, but not really top 4 at a JGP material. Plus she has hard first event and after last season we've seen she can be quite unpredictable. I wouldn't say she's a shoo-in to get a 2nd event. I mean, looking at the lineup for her first JGP, she is capable of potentially winning the event, but if Gao, Ovcharova (or one of her substitutes who are very strong), Birukova, Hae-Jin Kim, and Eri Nishamura all beat her, which is very feasible considering her injury, that's 6th place, not taking into consideration the young Japanese girls entered who could be very strong, and likely won't get her another event.
     
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah but look at the events this weekend. I mean, Nina skated pretty darn well and was only 5th. Plus, Davis has Gao, Agafonova, Sotnikova as competition, all of whom have all the triples and 3-3s and will be hard to beat. Then there's Fujisawa, Charbonneau, Najarro, and even Gilleron-Gory and Pfrengle who are all quite strong. 4th place finish is feasible for Davis and may get her a 2nd event, but this is a loaded lineup, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her finish as low as 10th just given the depth of this field and that places 4th-10th could potentially be separated by a few points. If she had a different assignment, I think Davis could easily medal if she skates well, but Graz is looking like the deepest field so far.
     
  17. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    FYI, I've cross-posted the above posts to the JGP Austria thread in the Kiss and Cry forum: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?p=2859444#post2859444
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2010
  18. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I'm glad Jiang has improved over her summer events. That said, had I not followed her summer comps I would have guessed a 4th/5th for her first jgp (which is where she placed).

    I won't be surprised if Davis ends up with a similar placement. (Baga as well.)
     
  19. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    Courtney Hicks (Novice 5th at Nationals) won the Junior Ladies event at Glacier Falls with an impressive score; however, neither Hicks nor McKinzie Daniels (J9) are listed in USFS' International Selection Pool (ISP) at this time (Keiser isn't listed because she is too young for the JGP this season).

    I would really like to see Angela Wang get a JGP assignment as soon as possible -- to me, she stood out at Liberty as one of the most improved skaters since Nationals (landing both 3Lz+3T and 2A+3T with + GOE to win the Junior Ladies Final). Maybe Wang could get Japan (Kiri Baga is already assigned there) because it's the same week as Nebelhorn Trophy and Felicia Zhang will be in Germany for Senior pairs...

    BTW, Vanessa Lam (J8) was added as a new alternate to the JGP in Japan in the roster that was published last week but she wasn't listed as one of the alternates for the JGP in Sheffield, England (the preliminary entries were published today).
     
  20. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Only having 7 JGPs makes the whole situation a little tricky. Where Yasmin got silver at her 1st event, she'll get another one. I'm going to assume Gao will get 2 assignments as well. So that takes up 4 of the 14 entries, and Jiang, Cesario, Gong, Davis, Baga have already been assigned to/competed in a JGP event, so that's 5 more entries (9), leaving 5 left. Likely more than 2 skaters will be given a 2nd assignment, last year 4 girls got 2 assignments each, so if 2 more girls from those I listed get 2nd assignments (say Cesario and Gong, but really it could be anyone), then there are 3 assignments left so Wang, Zhang, and Cain may each be given one or say Wang does well and there's time to give her a 2nd event, then likely only 1 of Cain or Zhang would be assigned. Or if another lady from the 5 I listed earlier (say Nina but it could be anyone who doesn't already have 2 assignments) gets a 2nd assignment, and Wang gets a 2nd assignment, then all the assignments would be used and Cain and Zhang would end up with no assignments.

    I don't know how the picking order works though, so Lam and Kulgyeko fall into the Zhang/Cain category as well.

    Is there a limit on how many skaters the USFSA can give 2 assignments to?
     
  21. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    14 slots/2 assignments = 7 skaters?

    ETA: So there's your limit.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2010
  22. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    The U.S. has 14 spots, though I'm sure not every skater will get 2 events, so we'll probably see more than 7 U.S. girls on the JGP.

    I, too, would like to see Angela Wang get an event. I think she could be extremely competitive with the top international girls.
     
  23. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I don't remember a year where all girls got 2--at least not for the last 5/6 years. ETA: 6-7 years, not 5-6

    Back to the question: 7 girls is your limit
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2010
  24. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    On average, how many girls get 2 assignments though? Or is it purely dependent on placement/scores?
     
  25. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    In the past, the cutoff to receive a second event has been a top 4 placement in the first event. However, as Sylvia previously noted, that criteria is not necessarily in effect this year.

    Personally speaking, I would say 4/5 is most likely the cutoff again this year, because there are so many talented girls deserving of spots, and if a skater places lower than 5th in her first event, it's virtually impossible she would make the Final.
     
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Didn't Anna Ovcharova place 6th at Budapest last year though? I wonder if some of the JGP events this year will be a lot more competitive than others. The scores at Courcheval overall seemed pretty high. The thing is though, if a bunch of girls finish in say 5th place, or 4th place, at their first JGP, how does the USFSA decide who gets a 2nd event and who doesn't? I feel a little bad for Nina, because her score was pretty high and she might miss out on a 2nd event to someone else who may place higher but score lower.
     
  27. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but Ovcharova was a bit lucky:
    1. Imai didn't get a second assignment
    2. Charbonneau & Agafonova did not do well in their first event
    3. Nishino, Musademba and Olsson all bombed the second.
     
  28. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Well, what can you do. The system isn't perfect, but the USFS has to do it's best guessing; it's kind of like fitting puzzle pieces together.

    While Jiang was pretty impressive in her debut, there are a host of girls waiting at home who could benefit from international experience too.
     
  29. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I just checked and she actually finished 5th, so your statement is still probably true. She was 6th in the SP and LP but 5th overall. And then she won silver at her 2nd event, but she wasn't even the last skater to qualify for the final. I guess if she had finished 6th and then won her 2nd event she would have qualified too, but that would be pretty rare. The medaling at one event and bombing the other isn't all that common among juniors though, we might see that this season too.
     
  30. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I'm going by memory here, but I'd say usually 2-3 US girls don't get a second assignment, depending on how well they compete.

    In 07-08, US girls did so well that Maxwell, who placed 3rd in her jgp, didn't get a second assignment, though Cannarozzo got a second after placing 4th in her first. I think Alba was the only one that year who didn't place top 5 in the first assignment. (Bulanhagui placed 5th but she wouldn't have gotten a second even had she placed top 4 since she competed late that year.) ETA: during 08-09, only one girl in the first half of the jgpf series didn't get a second one: Melissa Secundy.

    OTOH, last year was less successful for US girls than the previous 3-4 years. I think 4 girls didn't get a second assignment.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2010