1998 Olympics Ladies FS Under COP

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by skatingfan12, Mar 19, 2012.

  1. skatingfan12

    skatingfan12 New Member

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    I'm not an expert on COP so perhaps someone can give me perspective on this one.

    I know it's hard to compare between the 6.0 system and COP, but with everything else staying the same, would the top five ladies in the 1998 Olympics (Lipinski, Kwan, Chen, Butyrskaya, Slutskaya) had been the same under results under the COP system?

    Just looking at the top 2, Tara Lipinski had more difficulty in her jumps than other other ladies which would've increase her base value, but were they fully rotated and what about her levels in her spins?

    How were Michelle Kwan's jumps in terms of being fully rotated? What levels would she have received in her spins?

    I imagine Michelle Kwan would've beaten Tara Lipinski in program components.

    Any thoughts????
     
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  2. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    We can't compare, but the only thing I can say is that Michelle had 8 jumping passes : only 7 are allowed under CoP. So, virtually, MK had one triple less than Tara.
    Plus, Tara had faster spins.
    I don't think Michelle has any underrotated jump, although Tara's 3Loop/3Loop looks short.
    Anyway, TES is for Tara IMO.

    Of course, I prefer MK's glide and choreography. It was a pleasure to watch her with this beautiful LP. ;)
     
  3. PashaFan

    PashaFan Well-Known Member

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    I'm happy you have started this thread as this is something I have always thought about-also what about Baiul & Kerrigan in 94'?.
    For me this system rewards the technical more than the artistic so I'm thinking that Lipinski would still win.
    Would Kwan's flip have had a deduction?.
     
  4. alchemy void

    alchemy void it's time for the perkolator

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    Lipinski
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  5. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

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    I tried calling and judging the 98 LPs for myself once a few years go and I came up with 1 Kwan, 2 Slutskaya, 3 Lipinski in the LP.

    There's no "correct" answer, though, unless there's a huge difference between the performances.

    One variable is which year's IJS rules we use for levels and throwing out extra elements.

    And then there's room for different judgments on PCS and some of the GOEs.
     
  6. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Lipinski's jumps were small and barely off the ground.

    How would that fare with COP?
     
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  7. attyfan

    attyfan Well-Known Member

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    Also, what about the SP? The elements were the same for all, so Lipinski wouldn't have had the tech advantage she had in the FS. Could someone have gotten a big lead after the SP?
     
  8. fsfan22

    fsfan22 Member

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    ^^ agreed based on TES (Lu would have been lower than 5th overall instead of 3rd IMO)

    Kwan would outscore Lipinski on PCS, but it's hard to say by how much. I'd still give the edge to Lipinski based on her superior technical content.
     
  9. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

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    For those that had good flow and were clearly fully rotated, she could have gotten 0 or possibly +1 GOE, but not higher than that.

    Any < calls would lead to -GOE.

    Bigger jumps by some of the other skaters might have earned +2 from the more generous judges.
     
  10. Mafke

    Mafke New Member

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    Since they weren't competing under CoP I don't think that's relevant. All we can do is apply CoP standards to the elements that they did (that were legal at the time) and assume a version of CoP that allowed those jumps. Similarly spins are mostly going to have to be decided on GoE rather than levels since they weren't trying for levels (I can tell because neither lady's spins made me want to scratch my eyes out).

    I'm not sure at all that Lipinski's 3r-3r would be ratified, especially under the incredibly an&#1072;l standards that have ruled much of CoP's existence. The very low height she achieved would also not help her GoE scores.

    It's also hard to know what would have happened with edge calls....
     
  11. antmanb

    antmanb Well-Known Member

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    I guess you could say since they weren't competing under COP what's the point in trying to work out what it would have been like under COP at all. But if you are going to bother trying to evaluate it under COP you have to do something to make the performances comparable. I don't know how many jumping passes the other skaters had but if they don't all have 8 then there is no way to level the playing field in terms of TES earned by jumps. If you are going to ignore some of the COP rules but not others then it's also going to skew the comparison and make the comparison even more meaningless than it already is.
     
  12. Mafke

    Mafke New Member

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    Well yeah, it's an academic exercise but potentially kind of interesting as long as you remember the limitations.

    It also shows possible different directions CoP could have taken instead of the ugly mess it actually became. Again, academic but maybe interesting.
     
  13. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

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    The thing is, if you judge it by 2006 rules you might get a different result than using 2010 rules or 2012. So there's never any real answer even if the "judges" keep the same GOEs and PCS for all versions.
     
  14. Aussie Willy

    Aussie Willy Well-Known Member

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    You can still look at giving GOEs to the elements and also components. And you could apply the rules of the day rather than trying to put the rules as they are now onto the event. Of course it it is difficult to try and apply levels when that is not what the skaters were trying to achieve back then.
     
  15. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    Kwan would have had a huge lead after the SP, much larger than just being 1st in the 6.0 "control your own destiny" scenario. I think she might have come in 2nd in the LP by less than her lead in the SP, therefore winning in a Scott Hamiliton sort of way . . . but this is just the same old debate in a new form.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2012
  16. CantALoop

    CantALoop Well-Known Member

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    IMO whatever TES advantage Lipinski had by having the 3-3s would be offset by definite negative GoE on her horrible flutzes and 0 GoE at most for her roller skater 2As in both programs. Lipinski may have spun faster, but Kwan had better positions on everything except the layback. Kwan also had the better spirals.
     
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  17. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    Tara may have had faster spins, but Michelle spun in BOTH directions... Tara had one hard jumping pass but likely would have had edge calls. Michelle had one wonky landing but fully rotated. The quality and basics of MK's skating were so above and beyond Tara's, and that's where she should have won IMO. It's pretty obvious MK had bad luck because of the skate order. In IJS the SP would have counted towards MK's total score, but under 6.0 she basically went into the FS starting over and tied with Tara, so the SP has to be judged as well to use IJS. It's the same debate over and over, but we all know who the real winner is. Like everybody said at MK's induction ceremony, "She would have won in any Olympics BUT that one" -- Also Scott saying "These would have been 6.0s had she been the last skater" -- I think that tells everyone that something was wrong with the ladies' scoring in 98.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2012
  18. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    :rolleyes: Please don't speak for me or others.
     
  19. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    It's been so long and I'm going by memory but didn't Lipinski have a more difficult solo triple? She may have even done a triple lutz-double loop for her combo too. Or am I confusing that element with Irina and Sarah in 2002? Regardless I thought Kwan was overall superior in the short to all the ladies. In the long, not so much.
     
  20. carriemarie

    carriemarie New Member

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    Lipinski did a 3 flip and kwan did a 3 toe solo jump in the short- We are all forgetting the horrid edge call on Lipinski's lutz edge and she had 3 between both programs.
     
  21. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    I don't think her spin in 2 directions would have been recognized as 1 spin featuring both directions under COP.

    When I've done this in the past :) , I figure out their average value per jumping pass and multiply by 7. The tricky question is whether or not MK's 3 loop 2t series counts as a series or as two jumping passes. Obviously, she wouldn't have wasted a jumping pass on a 2t, and if she'd repeated a 3loop w/o doing it in combo/series, it would have been devalued by .2 anyway.

    Under current rules, Tara's final 3t-1/2loop-3sal would have been treated as a 3 jump combo: 8.8+ .88 = 9.68

    I don't think there was anything wrong with ladies scoring in '98. I think of it as the day the sport became, well, a sport. If those skates had been performed anytime prior, Kwan would have won, but not since.

    I think they would have been even after the SP, because Tara's 1.50 advantage from doing a 3f would have been balanced by less GOE on jumps.

    It's kind of pointless/unfair to compare spins and steps as skaters basically do what they have to under any system.
     
  22. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    I speak for fairness.
     
  23. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    and melodrama!
     
  24. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    :rofl:
     
  25. Louis

    Louis Tinami 2012

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    Just for another perspective, I would've given Kwan an "e" on both lutzes and her triple flip (the way Nagasu often gets). Plus, at minimum a < and probably a << on the second triple loop. So, from my perspective, Lipinski's jumps were actually cleaner both in terms of edge and rotation. Let the ubers disagree.....

    The big loser would be Lu Chen, where almost every jump would be < or <<.

    I wonder if bronze would be Slutskaya or Butyrskaya. Hard to say.
     
  26. casken

    casken Well-Known Member

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    Would Butyrskaya have fared better in the sp under COP than uder 6.0? She was the only one with a clean lutz on the correct edge, and did it in combo with a double loop, which puts her ahead of Kwan and Lipinski. She also did a more difficult solo jump compared to Kwan, and a higher quality solo jump compared to Lipinski.

    I tend to think Slutskaya would have medaled overall. She had two mistakes between the sp and lp, but would have gained GOE points back for the spins, the arm over the head variation on the double axel and excellent solo triple loop right out of the three turns in the sp, and well as doing a triple/triple combo in the lp past the halfway mark.

    I think Chen Lu would have done way worse considering all her lutzes would probably be called UR and many of the other jumps, as well as spins, were a bit below par.
     
  27. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    ^ I see the PCS and lead building opportunity as the biggest factor. It does so much for even skaters that fall. Presentation marks were neither as helpful nor as forgive under the 6.0 system.

    It is true that the TES is very debatable and Kwan did not have the highest in Nagano. A lot of factors would've been removed if Kwan had done the 3F preceded by steps, as she did at Nationals and was capable of doing since 1995 Worlds. Actually, it still irritates me that she didn't because I'm inclined to believe that it would have helped her under either system, removing doubt of her dominance ... same old stinking debate.

    BTW, Bonaly would have done much better under the IJS because she actual "skated" proper quite well in the SP and the TES base value of a 3T/3T is higher in the COPs than 3Lz/2T although everybody in Nagano was claiming it was a lesser combination and the same can be said for her 3S preceded by steps vs 3T preceded steps ... Everybody was saying it was easier but the COPs says otherwise. I actual think this performance of Caravan was her undisputed best performance ever.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2012
  28. BmcC102

    BmcC102 Active Member

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    Just jumps wise:

    Tara had 6 jumping passes.

    Michelle had 8 jumping passes.

    If COP were around, undoubtedly they'd both have seven passes, so this whole discussion is kindof moot.

    Tara looses points for edge calls on both lutzes (but again, if COP were around, she'd probably had done two flips instead). I think her 3-3 was good. Her flip was a true flip and the only well-landed 3 flip in the final group that night. Her axel was small (but Carolina and Julia Lip. also have similar technique on axel and they never get -GEO for it...).

    Michelle probably looses points for edge calls on her lutzes or her flip, or maybe even both the lutzes and flip (like Nagasu, as Louis said). She probably would have turned her 3 loop-turn-2 toe sequence into a true combination. (Note: She often did this turn in between jumps earlier in her career.) One wonky landing on the flip and maybe an underrotated 3 loop?

    Either way, they are the top two skaters! :)
     
  29. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Uber ? No. But I don't understand what you say. Her Flip is a flip (on the CBS video, it's clearly an inside edge), and her second Lutz is not questionnable, IMO. The first one would have had a e or a !.
    Anyway, for sure, all Tara's lutzes would have been e, without any doubt.
    Michelle's second Loop is complete for me, but without slomo, I can't say. The same for Tara's second Loop.
    So, I don't see how Tara's jumps are cleaner, when Tara has two e, and maybe a <, against Michelle's ! and maybe <. Plus, Michelle clean jumps were fabulous (Salchow, Toe, Loop, Axel), bigger than Tara's jumps. ;)
     
  30. millyskate

    millyskate Well-Known Member

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    Not sure the PCS would have gone all Kwan's way either... Tara was on fire and I still think of that performance as one of the best in the history of women's figure skating. Tara would also have had some "late in the program" jump bonuses.
    I clearly think of Tara as the better spinner, under COP it's all about getting the levels - not being elegant!