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SamuraiK
10-28-2012, 10:09 PM
Leonova is not a lock , not even a semi lock by any meas. If anything Adelina and Liza should be the ones left ouf of the poll.

SamuraiK
10-28-2012, 10:10 PM
she did :eek:, 11th in SP but won the FS :cheer2:

Thats great for Polina K. but is not something to hang onto when it comes to the RUS fed deciding who to favour on nationals. Polina bombs way too much at least one program.

judgejudy27
10-29-2012, 01:38 AM
I dont see anyway it isnt Tuktamysheva, Leonova, and Sotnikova unless 1 of them bombs badly at Nationals. Leonova is the reigning World silver medalist and while I dont expect her to be on the podium this year, she will still be protected for this year anyway unless she skates super bad at Nationals. Elizaveta and Sotnikova are both just stronger than the other young Russians.

Next year though one of them will be left off the Olympic team in favor of Julia Liptnitskaya who will be the #1 Russian and by far top Russian gold hope in Sochi.

jlai
10-29-2012, 04:34 AM
I went back to look at Russia's junior world records in ladies. Between 95 to 01, Russia produced 9 junior world medalists. One became world champion, two became one-time world medalist (Soldatova early in her career and Sokolova much later in her career), one a European medalist (Volchkova) and 5 disappeared soon after winning their junior world medals.

Russian ladies could be having an unpleasant surprise at London. (NA competition, girls with little competition experience, etc etc.)

Third lady: Probably Tukt, but I don't consider her 3rd lady

Bournekraatzfan
10-29-2012, 05:53 AM
I have faith that my Tukt will get that spot!

judgejudy27
10-29-2012, 06:02 AM
I went back to look at Russia's junior world records in ladies. Between 95 to 01, Russia produced 9 junior world medalists. One became world champion, two became one-time world medalist (Soldatova early in her career and Sokolova much later in her career), one a European medalist (Volchkova) and 5 disappeared soon after winning their junior world medals.

Russian ladies could be having an unpleasant surprise at London. (NA competition, girls with little competition experience, etc etc.)

Third lady: Probably Tukt, but I don't consider her 3rd lady

Some of them nobody ever thought was that good though, even when winning their World junior medals. Ivanova had one of the best World junior careers ever with a gold, 2 silver, and a bronze in years the likes of Slutskaya, Lipinski (who never medaled in either of her 2 world junior appearances), Soldatova, Volchkova, Sokolova, Czako, Arakawa, Gusmeroli, and Suguri and others participated. Yet nobody ever thought she was going to be a star in seniors, it was clear she was one of those always destined to be a great junior skater who would probably fade away or remain rooted in the crowd in seniors. Even she apparently thought so as 2 years after winning World Juniors she was still competing there, as opposed to Tara Lipinski who was 4th and 5th at the 2 World Juniors she was 2nd and 1st, and was by then a World, Olympic, U.S, and 2 time Grand Prix final Champion. She knew she was never going to do anything much at Senior Worlds, probably never even make it there given the Russian depth, so rack up those Junior medals, LOL!

The whole podium that swept the 96 Junior Worlds with Tara Lipinski 5th never looked that promising as far as their Senior careers went. Oblasova who won in 2001 over Ann Patrice McDonough (a skater who never made it higher than 4th in the U.S) never looked that talented either, and didnt she drop to something like 10th the next year. This group is different in that people see huge potential to do great in Seniors, and right away.

briancoogaert
10-29-2012, 07:34 AM
The whole podium that swept the 96 Junior Worlds with Tara Lipinski 5th never looked that promising as far as their Senior careers went. Oblasova who won in 2001 over Ann Patrice McDonough (a skater who never made it higher than 4th in the U.S) never looked that talented either, and didnt she drop to something like 10th the next year. This group is different in that people see huge potential to do great in Seniors, and right away.
Yes, great potential in senior as long as their bodies allow them to be competitive. Remember Caroline Zhang, supposed to be the next great thing. :)
Tuk's body has changed, I hope she can fix her jumps. She is so good.

judgejudy27
10-29-2012, 07:36 AM
Yes, great potential in senior as long as their bodies allow them to be competitive. Remember Caroline Zhang, supposed to be the next great thing. :)
Tuk's body has changed, I hope she can fix her jumps. She is so good.

True, they might end up not fulfilling that potential (which would be sad). One can never tell for sure. However my point is the Russian ladies that won medals at the World Juniors that period never looked to have much potential apart from Slutskaya, who did obviously go on to be a great and quite dominant skater. This makes them totally different than this group who everyone feels has huge potential. Sokolova, Volchkova, and Soldatova if anything did a bit better than expected as Seniors, while the rest were always no hopers as Seniors regardless of their junior success.

love_skate2011
10-29-2012, 08:08 AM
Thats great for Polina K. but is not something to hang onto when it comes to the RUS fed deciding who to favour on nationals. Polina bombs way too much at least one program.

Im happy for her win in Cup of Nice, I didn't even expected her to podium there with her SP meltdown
true Polina is a longshot of going to Worlds again, her meltdown last year probably will give a bad taste to her from her Fed

I see Leonova, Adelina and Liza , none of the others are more consistent

Marco
10-29-2012, 10:45 AM
Barring major miracles or disasters, Leonova, Tuk and Sot appear to be the most reasonable selection even before the season started.

Polina K has a lot to prove before she could knock down Leonova.

dawnie
10-29-2012, 04:45 PM
2013 World team- Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Adelina Sotnikova, Alena Leonova
2014 Olympic team- Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Adelina Sotnikova, Julia Lipnitskaya

I will be surprised if the teams above does not happen.

Nomad
10-29-2012, 06:03 PM
My money's on Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Leonova for 2013. Leonova will probably have to fight for her spot in 2014.

sk8ingcoach
10-31-2012, 05:37 PM
Most likely elizaveta will take the spot. But she has had her bad days like all these skaters. Makarova could get slightly higher components that might push her up, but she would have to land at least some triples. Also polina korobeinikova could easily even win nationals if she put together 2 clean programs. She got good scores in Nice recently but once again had a terrible short.

In the end I think it will be Elizabeth but it really could be any of them except agafanova and zaseeva

jlai
11-03-2012, 04:16 PM
I've been trying to compare in my mind whether the Russian wonderbabies are more like 08-09 US wonderbabies (Nagasu, Zhang, Wagner, Flatt ) or Japanese wonderbabies (2002-2006) (Mao, Miki, Yukina, etc.). They are clearly not as good as the Japanese girls (the Japanese girls were trendsetters in terms of jumps (3A, quad sal), plus they have good basics). The Russians are closer to US wonderbabies except there are more of the Russian ones, so the Russian girls may be more successsful.

ETA: The Russian girls are trained on elements that currently scores well (2A+3T), unlike Mao and Miki who actually tried crazy hard stuff as juniors or at the beginning or their senior career.

briancoogaert
11-03-2012, 05:42 PM
I've been trying to compare in my mind whether the Russian wonderbabies are more like 08-09 US wonderbabies (Nagasu, Zhang, Wagner, Flatt ) or Japanese wonderbabies (2002-2006) (Mao, Miki, Yukina, etc.). They are clearly not as good as the Japanese girls (the Japanese girls were trendsetters in terms of jumps (3A, quad sal), plus they have good basics). They are closer to US wonerbabies except there are more of the Russian ones, so the Russian girls may be more successsful.
Absolutely, they are between. Not so great basics, but rotate fastly, flexible, so, they can jump and spin.
The problem is always about puberty for those girls with flexibility but no great basics.