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olympic
10-22-2012, 02:51 PM
Considering that Evan is injured, as well as Johnny's and Jeremy's performances at Finlandia and SA respectively, could the USFSA start gravitating to Richard as the #1 US man? He is the only one recently who has shown that he can keep up with the big guns (Finlandia; Glacier Falls) and the USFSA seems to like him anyway. I know that we have to wait and see Johnny and Jeremy later in the season, and if Evan competes at all, but Jeremy's skate at SA was IMO another headcase moment. How many more of these can he afford before he starts getting dumped?

I think the picture will become clearer after Ross skates at SC and Adam does CoC. How would they stack up against a clean Richard?

pinky166
10-22-2012, 03:44 PM
Richard for sure has the quad advantage over any of the guys you mentioned. Unless Ross's 4s is suddenly consistent and Adam gets his 3a AND 4S consistent, which last season neither were, then Ricky's odds are looking pretty good as clearly Jeremy and Johnny are struggling with the quad at present, and Evan's probably not coming back at this point... I guess you can't count out wildcards like Max Aaron, Armin, and Keegan Messing though, they all have quads, Max has 2 and his 4s is really consistent and strong. But at Nationals their PCS aren't likely to be as good as Richard, although they do generally get pretty good marks at Nats. It will certainly be interesting.

RFOS
10-22-2012, 03:47 PM
Yes, he can, but not if he skates like he did last year. :shuffle: He looked great at Finlandia though. :)

l'etoile
10-22-2012, 04:27 PM
Of course! I'm all for Ricky Dornbush bandwagon! Consistency on difficult jumps, quad and 3a, is mandatory for him to push himself to be the no1 US man and further up.

Sylvia
10-22-2012, 04:46 PM
Remember that Dornbush won the FS at 2011 Nationals. His weak point has been the SP - he has yet to finish higher than 7th in the SP in his 3 Nationals at the Senior level, and this was an issue for him at the lower levels as well.

I think Lysacek is coming back for real, so Nationals could be verrrry interesting with both him and Weir returning after 2 seasons off.

Pretty Vegas
10-22-2012, 05:01 PM
I love Ricky and would love for him to win. He definitely seems to be in a better place than last season - but last season he apparently had those boot issues that threw him off all season. His nemesis does seem to be the SP though - although he did a great one at Glacier Falls? (I think it was GF - he got over 80 in the SP) but his point total at Finlandia was definitely super impressive. I hope he can win the title. I've been such a fan of his since the 2010-2011 season. He showed such promise that year and so I hope this is the year that he can finally capitalize on it.

aftershocks
10-22-2012, 05:29 PM
Sure Richard could win the title. Still, it's all up in the air at this point. I think Richard has a very good sp this season, which he's been skating very well, and he placed and performed great at Finlandia. I like his sp music, and perhaps the music has special meaning for him so that probably greatly helps his performance. His fp is also very good and will probably get stronger over the course of the season. Right now, I enjoy Richard's sp more.

Lots of factors are involved, as others have mentioned: Ross and Adam have yet to debut their programs on the GP, as do Richard and Johnny. Some fans seem unclear about what Evan is going to do, but if his injury heals then he's likely to come back. He will need to compete before Nationals but I don't know where he will have the opportunity to do that. Johnny had a strong outing at Finlandia, and if he gets accustomed to his new boots and starts landing the quad cleanly, he's still competitive. As much as I hate to see what happened to Jeremy at SA (a comp which he clearly could have won), it's too early in the season to say that Jeremy can't figure things out. His programs are well-choreographed and he's such a beautiful skater. Hopefully he will be able to tackle and solve his physical and mental nerve problems (if he's fiercely motivated to do so and gets the help he needs).

Nationals is still a horse race, unpredictable. In addition to Armin, Keegan, Max, Carriere, et al, the younger guys will also factor in (Joshua and Jason).

merrywidow
10-22-2012, 06:15 PM
I think Ricky has as good a shot at winning in '13 as any of our men & better than most. Looking forward to seeing Ross & Adam in their GP events & pulling for Max & Stephen this weekend at Coup de Nice.

LilJen
10-22-2012, 06:39 PM
Considering that Evan is injured, as well as Johnny's and Jeremy's performances at Finlandia and SA respectively, could the USFSA start gravitating to Richard as the #1 US man? He is the only one recently who has shown that he can keep up with the big guns (Finlandia; Glacier Falls) and the USFSA seems to like him anyway. I know that we have to wait and see Johnny and Jeremy later in the season, and if Evan competes at all, but Jeremy's skate at SA was IMO another headcase moment. How many more of these can he afford before he starts getting dumped?

I think the picture will become clearer after Ross skates at SC and Adam does CoC. How would they stack up against a clean Richard?

It could happen. Remember, though, that Jeremy was INJURED mid-FS (spinal compression) this weekend, which was a major reason for his bad LP.

It will be interesting to see how Adam does with his new coaching situation, and Ross, who to me is sort of the "reliable Rachel" of the men's side--quite steady and consistent but kind of blah (for me, anyway).

Jaana
10-22-2012, 06:52 PM
Considering the sp and fs (although perhaps injured) skated by Abbott, it could be possible that he is taking things slower this season. It is not good to peak too early like he has done often. He only needs to kind of peak at Nationals and definetely to peak at Worlds... But he is unfortunately a headcase at major competitions like Worlds and Olympics.

I think it could be possible for Dornbush to win the National title this season.

Jammers
10-22-2012, 07:05 PM
Its time for the younger guys like Dornbush to take take the reins. Jeremy, Johnny and Evan have had their time but its time for the younger generation to take over. I don't see Rippon ever winning anything big or Miner for that matter. Armin doesn't seem to be world class either. Aaron has the jumps but not much else at this point as does Keegan. It might take someone like Joshua Farris to shake things up along with Richard. At least i see potential for the future in both of them. As for Jason Brown since he still doesn't have a reliable 3axel he will probably have to wait until 2018.

VarBar
10-22-2012, 08:15 PM
Yes, I do think Dornbush can win Nationals. Him beating Hanyu on the technical mark in the FS at Finlandia Trophy was a pretty impressive result I'd say. I know Hanyu made a couple of mistakes there but Dornbush too fell on his second quadruple jump which made him lose a few points. Also, Dornbush scored quite high on the PC considering he basically has no reputation in the eyes of the judges. Abbott usually has his best skate at Nationals but I hear he is injured and the injury might slow him down a bit. As far as Lysacek, he is a big question mark for me, I haven't seen him compete since Vancouver, so I don't know what to say about him.

judgejudy27
10-22-2012, 08:23 PM
I think he definitely can and I hope he does. Lysacek's time is over, Weir hasnt been a top skater for many years, and Abbott will forever be a headcase who cant get it together and it time to stop waiting on him.

pinky166
10-22-2012, 09:18 PM
I agree that Lysacek, Weir, and Abbott are skaters of the past, but where Sochi is so close, and most of the guys who appear to have real potential to go places in the future (in my opinion, Dornbush and Farris, as well as maybe Brown and Messing), USFS might favor the old guys just figuring that the young talented kids still have a shot at 2018, while for Johnny, Jeremy, and Evan, Sochi is clearly their last hope. I agree about Rippon, Miner, and Armin, they are all nice skaters but I don't see them as having the potential to be World medalists either. And their age makes it tricky, Armin is a little younger, but Adam and Ross will be bordering on getting "skater old" by 2018 and it seems like for Sochi, the USFS is better off with either going with the vets, or the young guns with a lot of potential, or a combination of both. If Dornbush skates and places well on the GP this fall that will help his case, and the fact that he's the only one at this point that's shown the technical content the US guys are gonna need to get 3 spots to the Olympics is also encouraging. Evan may indeed come back but I have doubt in his ability to land quads, same goes for Johnny, and Jeremy's quad is not yet consistent either and even his great PCS often seem to not make up enough for his TES which often dips very low. Aaron, Messing, and Farris have the jumps, Aaron especially, but need fine-tuning and my guess is USFS wants to keep them around for 2018 (Farris in particular, given that he stayed on the JGP this season) so are unlikely to send them off to Worlds and the Sochi Olympics unless they kick butt at Nationals and the veterans disappoint. Rippon, Miner, Mahbanoozadeh could upset but I don't really see it happening. Adam skated about as well at Worlds last season as he had the whole season and was 13th. Mahbanoozadeh's international PCS need a boost and he will be unlikely to get the competition experiences needed to do that. Miner, we'll see, if his 4s is consistent his odds are pretty decent, but if not, there's really nothing that particularly stands out about his skating compared to anyone else. Brown will need the 3a consistent and at least be trying a quad in his program to get consideration so that's unlikely to happen between now and Sochi, but post 2014 he could definitely be in the mix.

dawnie
10-22-2012, 09:20 PM
Its time for the younger guys like Dornbush to take take the reins. Jeremy, Johnny and Evan have had their time but its time for the younger generation to take over. I don't see Rippon ever winning anything big or Miner for that matter. Armin doesn't seem to be world class either. Aaron has the jumps but not much else at this point as does Keegan. It might take someone like Joshua Farris to shake things up along with Richard. At least i see potential for the future in both of them. As for Jason Brown since he still doesn't have a reliable 3axel he will probably have to wait until 2018.

I totally agree, it's about time for the younger guys to overtake the old guard. Hopefully Dornbush, Miner, Aaron, and Farris blow everyone out of the water at Nationals and we will finally see some new blood dominating.
I would be extremely shocked to see any of Lysacek, Abbott, or Weir in Sochi and if any of them make it, what does that say about the competition? The young boys better bring it.