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judgejudy27
10-23-2012, 06:05 PM
I take it you believe that they doctored the results so that Ross Miner could go to Worlds instead of Jeremy Abbott in 2011.

No I believe that was a case where the performances were such a radical departure the judges sometimes have no choice. Anyway I dont think Abbott was in favor that much the 2010-2011 season. He actually was skating more consistently that season than he usually does, but both international and national judges were extremely stingy with his scores. I mentioned that numerous times early in the season and that he probably wouldnt get any gifts at Nationals that year, and was shown to be right. His losing the short program at Nationals to Bradley was ridiculous. Last season he seemed back in favor but unfortunately was making even more mistakes than the previous one, other than his great performances at Nationals.

pinky166
10-23-2012, 06:12 PM
No I believe that was a case where the performances were such a radical departure the judges sometimes have no choice. Anyway I dont think Abbott was in favor that much the 2010-2011 season. He actually was skating more consistently that season than he usually does, but both international and national judges were extremely stingy with his scores. I mentioned that numerous times early in the season and that he probably wouldnt get any gifts at Nationals that year, and was shown to be right. His losing the short program at Nationals to Bradley was ridiculous. Last season he seemed back in favor but unfortunately was making even more mistakes than the previous one, other than his great performances at Nationals.

Well said and ITA. That was an unusual situation and it COULD happen again, but I'd be surprised. There are more men in the mix now and reputation seems to be playing a bigger role. On paper, it's very possible say Aaron, Farris, and Messing could go 1-2-3 at Nationals, however, I tend to think USFS will try to avoid that from happening, unless those skaters favored have clearly regressed and obviously inferior to those I mentioned, don't compete, or bomb at Nationals, on top of those three skaters, or three other similar wild cards, skating well.

aftershocks
10-23-2012, 07:44 PM
Dornbush would've had it last year if he just stood up, and it is still waiting for him.

If Ricky had not had boot problems and had stood up at 2012 Nats, he might have garnered third or fourth place, but not the title. Adam and Jeremy had very good programs last season and performed fairly well during the GP (Jeremy a little better than Adam), so they were both favored to do well at Nats. Especially, Jeremy was favored to place highly if he skated well, which he did. His programs (Swing sp and Muse Redemption fp) are exceptional and iconic, particularly with the way Jeremy skates when he's on.



I really like that Ricky skates to programs that are not only inventive, he's become quite a showy, accessible and versatile performer who knows how to sell what he's given. Dornbush reminds me a lot of Paul Wylie.

His Big Band Swing free skate at Finlandia was outstanding both from a technical and presentation point of veiw.

Undeniably many of Jeremy's peers have been inspired by his skating and his programs. As a matter of fact, Richard Dornbush's sp choreo this season is reminiscent of the movement style that Jeremy displays in Muse Redemption and Bring Him Home. And, Richard's fp is most definitely a take on Jeremy's "big band" Swing sp of last season. I also believe that Ryan Bradley's rollicking fun swing style sp to the Andrews Sisters 40s band era music (at 2011 Nats) is likely partly what inspired Jeremy to think along the lines of coming up with a fun uplifting sp with a "swing" theme last season.

I think Richard has his own unique style, and he is in the process of exploring his own identity on the ice. IMO, he still needs to develop more stretch and work more on his posture and his artistry. The fact Richard was inspired by Jeremy's programs last season to create programs with similar themes and movement styles doesn't mean he's simply copying. I think it means Richard is challenging himself to be a better skater and a better competitor, and to discover the possibilities of his own artistry, musicality and expressiveness on the ice.

At this point, I don't think Richard has the lines, elegance and depth of artistry that Paul Wylie exhibited in his skating. Richard is still in the infancy stages of discovering his expressive capacities, while Wylie from a young age, was exceptionally musical and uniquely expressive on the ice. If I were to try and compare Richard to anyone re performance style, I would pick Scott Hamilton (plus as others have noted Hamilton and Dornbush also have a somewhat similar physical appearance).

As you mentioned Paul Wylie, it just recalls to mind how Paul for practically most of his eligible career struggled with perfecting his technical skills under pressure. I think Paul skated fabulously at both 1990 and 1991 U.S. Nationals and should have won, but U.S. fed was kinda down on him as being a stalwart competitor, so they preferred rewarding the up-and-coming Todd Eldredge with the title those years, but Todd didn't fully come into his own on the international stage until some years later. The window of opportunity was fast closing for Paul. But he gave it his all and made the 1992 Olympic team as the third U.S. guy with Bowman (4th at Olympics) and Eldredge (10th at Olympics). Of course, the rest is history, as Paul nearly won gold at the 1992 Olympics. Some still argue that if Paul had had a better rep with international judges, he might have won the gold over Petrenko. In any case, winning the silver medal coming in as the third U.S. guy was amazing. Paul always had the talent, but it took his own determination and "never say die" effort plus all the cards lining up in his favor for him to achieve the near miraculous.

Therefore, despite all our predictions and speculations, we know not what will ultimately happen. I must say, it surely is a blast when your absolute favorite who has talent but who has always been considered an underdog lays it out in spectacular fashion for all the world to see and is rewarded with a much deserved Olympic medal. :cheer:


I really wish Johnny, Evan, and Jeremy would just retire and give some of the younger guys a chance. Jeremy I somewhat understand but he's blown his chances so many times and any hope of an Olympic or World medal now are extremely slim ever if he does miraculously manage to skate cleanly/really well at one of those competitions, which he has yet to do. As for Johnny and Evan, they had the skates of their lives at the 2010 Olympics and there's no way, barring some disaster, they will be able to better their placements in 2014... USFS needs to wake up and smell the coffee and look at the scores Aaron and Farris have posted in recent international competitions...

There isn't much happening in the way of professional competition opportunities. Therefore, it is no wonder that those who still feel the urge to compete are drawn back into the eligible ranks. The sport itself sorely needs to evolve in so many ways. Having a viable professional tour is just one of the ways the sport needs to expand. I believe there are some ongoing efforts toward refashioning professional or at least pro-am competitions, but frankly not nearly enough is being done, IMO.

As far as Armin, Messing and Aaron, they are great skaters and it's a shame they don't have the opportunity to compete more internationally and have the chance to develop their extraordinary talents. That's another conundrum and aspect where the sport needs to evolve. Either drop this allegiance to a limited number of competitors being able to be sent from X number of countries and evaluate everyone on the basis of their talent (such as in tennis where it doesn't matter what country you are from in terms of your ranking -- yes, I know that tennis is a completely different sport where when you win, you win).

I feel that Armin, Razzano, and Carriere, at this point have a better mix of technical and artistic skills, whereas Keegan* and Aaron still need to work on their presentation skills. Ross Miner is very consistent and has all-around talent, as well as great coaches. Ross also has the advantage of international exposure and success. Richard too has taken a big step toward the next level this season with great programs and the benefit of past international experience (and also having learned from his struggles at Nationals earlier this year).

With all of this amazing U.S. talent, that's a big reason why Joshua and Jason are still going the route of JGP. There's no reason to rush either Joshua or Jason to the big time. They will both benefit from "slow and steady wins the race" to 2018.

*Obviously, Keegan is a "firecracker" on the ice, but he needs to develop more polish and consistency.

aftershocks
10-23-2012, 08:06 PM
Well said and ITA. That was an unusual situation and it COULD happen again, but I'd be surprised. There are more men in the mix now and reputation seems to be playing a bigger role. On paper, it's very possible say Aaron, Farris, and Messing could go 1-2-3 at Nationals, however, I tend to think USFS will try to avoid that from happening, unless those skaters favored have clearly regressed and obviously inferior to those I mentioned, don't compete, or bomb at Nationals, on top of those three skaters, or three other similar wild cards, skating well.

I too agree with judgejudy's post #46. No question that Ryan Bradley was favored at 2011 Nats. I think Ryan skated very well in the sp, but Jeremy clearly should have edged Ryan in the sp on the basis of skating skills alone. I love Ryan's skating and his personality, but he unfortunately was never stretched to ever fully develop his latent artistry nor to tap into his innate elegance -- he was guided to focus more on the technical "macho" aspects of his skating and to pay short shrift to expanding the capacities of his gorgeous physique. That is why it is so fortuitous that Joshua Farris escaped to a different coach at a young age.

As far as your suggestion pinky166, that Aaron, Farris, and Messing could go 1-2-3 at Nationals, I seriously doubt that with the field they will be up against. I don't see Aaron winning the title anytime soon -- he needs to develop his presentation skills, and also develop consistency in landing the quad under pressure. There is not going to be anything U.S. judges will do or need to do in holding the scores back for these guys. I believe the judges will fairly to the best of their ability give appropriate marks in keeping with the performances of all who will be competing. Of course, subjectivity and politics are always a factor in judging, but the biggest variable is how each skater actually performs on the ice.

Vagabond
10-23-2012, 08:29 PM
No I believe that was a case where the performances were such a radical departure the judges sometimes have no choice.

Do you actually understand how the judging system works? And have you ever read any of the posts by FSU members here who have actual experience judging under COP?

Miner's score was 0.19 higher than Abbott's. If the judges had given Abbott an average of 0.25 points more on any one of his Program Component Scores for either program, he would have finished third.

According to the posters here who actually do judge figure skating competitions, they are simply too busy marking what they see to figure out how their particular scores affect the overall rankings, let alone to speculate how the other judges are going to mark each skater.

By the way, you might want to read The Dilemma of Determinism, by William James. It's an excellent discussion of the concept of free will. :)

pinky166
10-23-2012, 09:17 PM
As far as your suggestion pinky166, that Aaron, Farris, and Messing could go 1-2-3 at Nationals, I seriously doubt that with the field they will be up against. I don't see Aaron winning the title anytime soon -- he needs to develop his presentation skills, and also develop consistency in landing the quad under pressure. There is not going to be anything U.S. judges will do or need to do in holding the scores back for these guys. I believe the judges will fairly to the best of their ability give appropriate marks in keeping with the performances of all who will be competing. Of course, subjectivity and politics are always a factor in judging, but the biggest variable is how each skater actually performs on the ice.

Okay so just one thing, last year, Adam and Ross were 2 and 3 at Nationals. Take a look at their ISU SB scores from last season, they are 222 and 223, take a look at Josh's ISU SB score, 221.97, at a junior event with one less step sequence in the FS. Then this season he's already scored 218 in August and 211 a few weeks later despite a tough FS. That would suggest that in the eyes of the international judges, these 3 skaters are at a comparable level, and even looking at PCS specifically, the numbers are pretty comparable, usually low 7s are the norm for all 3.

So in light of this, Josh's chances of landing on the podium at Nationals should be as good as that of Adam or Ross, this season maybe even better, because of the strength of his 3a and the 3a-3t and strong 4t he was able to land in competition at his first JGP, while the other two have yet to land a clean quad or 3a-3t in competition, and don't have as nice of a 3a to begin with. But you just admitted you'd be surprised to see him on the podium.

Max Aaron has posted even higher scores internationally than Josh, and you also admitted you'd be surprised to see him win/podium at Nationals too. So clearly, the fact that people think their chances of medaling at Nationals are slim while international results and scores indicate they are about as strong if not slightly better than 2 men who were on the podium last season and considered to be medal favorites reveals the truth behind a kind of favoritism, scoring inflation, and pecking order existing at Nationals.

And this is what I don't get, because if you have a skater who at 17 can score as well and jump better than a skater in his early 20s, wouldn't you want to invest in the 17 year old who possesses the potential to go much farther in the future, given that internationally he is considered comparable to the older skater who does not pose much hope of improving a lot and becoming a factor in the future? And Aaron I guess is 20 but it's still the same idea, he's younger than Miner and Rippon and has nicer jumps and comparable PCS in international events.

You would think USFS would want to show these kind of skaters off and give them GP assignments and if they skate well at Nationals embrace sending them to events like Worlds and the 2014 Olympics where they can gain exposure and build a reputation for themselves..

aftershocks
10-23-2012, 09:18 PM
Do you actually understand how the judging system works? And have you ever read any of the posts by FSU members here who have actual experience judging under COP?

Miner's score was 0.19 higher than Abbott's. If the judges had given Abbott an average of 0.25 points more on any one of his Program Component Scores for either program, he would have finished third.

According to the posters here who actually do judge figure skating competitions, they are simply too busy marking what they see to figure out how their particular scores affect the overall rankings, let alone to speculate how the other judges are going to mark each skater.

By the way, you might want to read The Dilemma of Determinism, by William James. It's an excellent discussion of the concept of free will. :)


Sure sure, now please explain Evan Lysacek's and Johnny Weir's tying scores at 2008 Nationals. Yeah sure, the judges were simply "too busy marking" Johnny down and Evan up that they were completely unable "to figure out how their particular scores [would] affect the overall rankings." ;) Okay, I know it's all in the math which goes into the computer, and no one can ever really explain how it happened, and none of the judges really really know what their counterparts are doing. ;) :sheep:

Free will obviously has nothing to do with figure skating judging. :lol:

aftershocks
10-23-2012, 09:27 PM
Hey, sorry pinky166, your first two sentences were about CoP scores, and I had trouble reading any further, especially because you don't break your comments up into readable paragraphs. I think the ISU scores can not be compared across seasons or across competitions for multiple skaters, and not even for an individual skater. IJS/ CoP scoring is "whack" to begin with. Maybe looking at the protocols provides helpful information for skaters and their coaches, but PCS are always manipulated and most of the time make little sense.

I'll take another gander at your run-on paragraph and get back to you. Sorry, I don't mean to offend. I'll be back later. :)

pinky166
10-23-2012, 11:28 PM
aftershocks i just broke up my post to make it easier to read!

judgejudy27
10-24-2012, 01:03 AM
Sure sure, now please explain Evan Lysacek's and Johnny Weir's tying scores at 2008 Nationals. Yeah sure, the judges were simply "too busy marking" Johnny down and Evan up that they were completely unable "to figure out how their particular scores [would] affect the overall rankings." ;)

I wouldnt go as far as to say the tie which was broken in Evan's favor was pre ordained, but I would definitely say the blatant overscoring of Evan and blatant underscoring of Johnny given their performances that day, which even made it a close decision that day when it should have been a runaway win for Johnny, was. That is what I mean when I say anyone who actually thinks there isnt heavy politiking and USFSA interests going into the scoring at Nationals is as delusional and naive as someone who thinks there are alot of Tour de France cyclists who were clean.

aftershocks
10-24-2012, 05:54 AM
aftershocks i just broke up my post to make it easier to read!

Thanks pinky166. I took another look and it was much easier to read. I don't think IJS scores across competitions and disciplines are comparable. Joshua is still skating in the junior ranks internationally and the requirements and time limit of programs are slightly different. Sure Josh is capable of competing well at Nationals and garnering great scores, but there are a lot of U.S. guys competing in seniors internationally who can also compete well and get high scores. Nationals scores are generally inflated as well, so again, we can predict and speculate and obviously have our own opinions, but ultimately it could all turn out beyond what any of us are expecting. I would definitely be surprised to see Aaron winning the title and Farris and Messing going 2, 3.

It is definitely more likely to be
Jeremy, Evan, Johnny;
OR Evan, Johnny, Jeremy;
OR Jeremy, Richard, Johnny;
OR Evan, Jeremy, Richard, Johnny, Adam, Ross;
OR Jeremy, Johnny, Richard, Adam, Ross, Armin, Joshua, Aaron, Messing, Razzano, Jason;
OR Evan, Richard, Jeremy, Johnny;
OR Richard, Jeremy, Evan, Johnny, Adam, Ross, Joshua;
OR Jeremy, Richard, Adam, Evan, Johnny, Ross, Joshua; etc.

^^ Yes, just silly impressions because I haven't even seen all of these guys' programs this season.